The economic crises of the last decade have generated significant reassessment in the discipline of economics. The failure of mainstream analysis to anticipate the financial crash of 2008, the growth of inequality, the unexpected stalling of productivity and wage growth, and the increasing evidence of environmental breakdown, have led to a questioning of the theoretical foundations upon which much economic policy has been based. Mainstream economics has increasingly taken new perspectives on board, while alternative or ‘heterodox’ schools have become increasingly prominent.
In macroeconomics, ‘post-Keynesian’ analysis has emphasised the critical role of the financial sector and of uncertainty. Institutional and political economists have focused on the role of institutions and power relationships. Evolutionary and complexity economists have sought to understand the economy as a complex, adaptive system with a path-dependent history of technological and institutional development. Ecological economics has pointed out the environmental basis of all economic activity. Feminist economists have forced attention on its gendered nature. Behavioural economists have shown how people actually behave, contradicting the neoclassical model of ‘rational economic man’.
These developments have not yet led to any grand synthesis, but economics is in greater flux, and generating more interesting ideas, than it has for a generation.
In a report for the OECD, a group of leading economists describes how a convergence of mainstream and ‘heterodox’ economic thought is enabling a much richer understanding of how modern economies work and appropriate policy solutions.
In an interview with Evonomics, Eric Beinhocker, Director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at Oxford, discusses how the integration of evolutionary and complexity economics can provide a new foundation for economic theory.
Launching their network of ‘Economists for Inclusive Prosperity’, US-based economists Suresh Naidu, Dani Rodrik and Gabriel Zucman argue that economics needs to escape its fetish of markets, and in doing so can provide important tools to improve society.
The Bruegel think tank describes recent developments in macro and microeconomics which challenge formerly dominant orthodoxies.
Mariana Mazzucato, Director of the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, summarises her influential thinking on financialisation, innovation and ‘mission-oriented’ industrial policy.
The UK Government has legislated for net zero carbon emissions by the year 2050, upping the ambition of the existing 2008 Climate Change Act’s target of an 80% reduction.
Britain is not on course to meet even its previous commitments, and many believe that a 2050 net zero date is too late. Meeting net zero will require more concerted action in all of the main areas critical to decarbonisation: energy generation, transport, industry, buildings, and land use and agriculture. This is a challenge facing all countries.
Many local authorities have declared “climate emergencies” and are pushing ahead with their own ambitious plans for meeting them, although there are limits to how far they can go by themselves.
A team of leading energy academics submitted its Thirty by 2030 report to the Labour Party in 2019, which explores policies to deliver a 77% reduction in emissions from energy by 2030.
IPPR has proposed a Sustainable Economy Act for the UK, which would extend the existing principle of carbon limits to a range of critical environmental indicators such as soil fertility and air quality.
The Centre for Alternative Technology’s Rising to the Climate Emergency report updates its previous proposals for reaching Zero Carbon Britain. They believe we already have the tools and technology needed to power the UK with 100% renewable energy.
Natural climate solutions, such as planting trees and restoring wetlands, are increasingly popular with governments, campaigners and businesses. If carried out properly they can absorb large amounts of carbon and address wider environmental destruction, such as biodiversity loss.
These programmes should not be seen as a way for polluting industries to avoid changing their behaviour. Natural solutions are instead seen as something to be implemented alongside wider emissions cuts and other actions to repair the environment, not instead of them.
Carbon Brief explores the potential for different natural climate solutions. It finds that the most effective for reducing carbon is reforestation; others include the preservation of carbon-rich peat bogs and sea-kelp restoration. The Wildlife Trusts call for major investment in seagrass and peatland restoration. It claims that this could absorb up to a third of UK carbon emissions.
The Natural Climate Solutions campaign calls for natural solutions to be at the heart of global summits on both climate change and ecosystem restoration. A coalition of major environmental charities and university environment departments have written to Alok Sharma, outlining both the importance and limitations of nature-based solutions to addressing climate change.
State-backed investment banks exist to provide finance where private banks may be reluctant to do so – in disadvantaged regions, new technologies or in sectors where returns are not considered high enough or too risky.
They are particularly valuable for providing 'patient' capital. This is long-term finance that is beyond the time horizon of most commercial banking but which is essential for innovation and strategic economic development. In very different circumstances, China and Germany both provide evidence.
The UK is unique among major advanced economies in not having a national investment bank. Its advocates argue that such a bank would increase investment in innovation and meeting major mission-focused industrial transformations, such as building a green economy. The depth of the economic crisis caused by Covid-19, and its potential impacts on private finance, has added new urgency to these proposals.
Giles Wilkes argues for the Institute of Government that the scale of economic turmoil unleashed by Covid-19 means new institutions will be needed to support investment financing, including a publicly-owned State Reconstruction Bank.
For the Progressive Economy Forum, Professor Stephany Griffiths-Jones and Peter Rice explore key questions for the design of a UK National Investment Bank, including getting its mandate right, and funding and oversight models.
The UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose examines the design and record of national investment banks in eight countries across the world, and draws lessons on how such banks can best provide patient, strategic and 'mission-oriented' finance.
Over the long term, there are proposals for the better use of macroprudential tools, financial policies that aim to ensure the stability of the system as a whole, to strengthen the resilience of the finance sector and equip it to better deliver on wider social objectives, such as building a net zero economy.
This includes rehabilitating credit guidance – rules on how credit should flow to particular parts of the economy, such as green investments.
The UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose argues for the reintroduction of credit guidance. It suggests this could deliver productive investment in a low-carbon economy, steering away from less productive and risky finance.
IPPR’s Commission on Economic Justice recommends using three major macroprudential tools to limit credit to the financial sector and contain rising asset prices. One of its proposals is for the Bank of England to adopt a target to limit house price inflation.
The Covid-19 pandemic has placed a renewed focus on how governments can use fiscal policy to stabilise their economies and create jobs.
With the base interest rate at near-zero (which means that when inflation is taken into account it is actually negative) the principal tool of monetary policy - changes in interest rates - has reached its limit. The IMF and OECD have therefore recommended that governments continue with public spending to support hard-hit economies until the recovery is well established.
The policy of 'austerity' - spending cuts and tax rises - instituted in many countries after the financial crisis is now widely seen as having failed. It slowed the recovery and damaged long-term growth, which in the end is needed to reduce debt, by weakening public services and investment. It also widened inequality.
It is widely argued now that governments should exploit low borrowing costs to boost public investment. The Bank of England has been financing a large part of government borrowing during the pandemic and can continue to do so. It can hold public debt on its balance sheet indefinitely, a phenomenon known as 'monetary financing'. (See Stimulating economic recovery.)
There is also growing interest in how central banks could stimulate economic activity by transferring money directly into the hands of households. At the same time there are strong calls for central banks to use their position in the financial system to steer capital away from carbon-intensive sectors.
The IMF argues that developed country governments should maintain public spending to invest in recovery, and that debt levels can be stabilised without recourse to austerity.
IPPR has proposed a new framework for UK macroeconomic policy to give policymakers a reliable set of tools for combatting recession. It offers three areas for reform: new fiscal rules, revision of the Bank of England's mandate and a National Investment Bank.
Nobel prizewinning economist Joe Sitglitz and colleagues set out a new fiscal framework capable of dealing with uncertainties about future interest rates, shocks and climate risks. Rejecting 'fiscal anchors' - simple limits on deficits or debt as a share of GDP - they propose stronger 'automatic stabilisers' with provision for policymakers to use discretion when conditions change.
The New Economics Foundation argues for a new mandate for the Bank of England. As publicly-owned institutions, central banks should be required to support the long-term public good, including environmental sustainability.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has set out the Biden Administration's new approach to fiscal policy to address the country's longstanding economic challenges.
The Resolution Foundation argues that the UK's fiscal rules need to focus on the level of 'public sector net worth', the value (as a proportion of GDP) of the government’s total financial and fixed assets minus its debts and other liabilities. This net figure for both debts and assets would help clarify how governments can borrow to invest.
The United Kingdom - especially England - has a highly centralised political system and economic geography. Decision-making power is more concentrated in central government than in comparable Western countries, and regional inequalities in income, wealth and health are larger.
The centralised management of public services has been a contentious topic during the pandemic. Many have argued the Government’s centralised response impeded effective provision of services, particularly with respect to public health and test-and-trace.
At the same time, the last decade has seen a degree of enhanced devolution, particularly to English city-regions. This has allowed new kinds of more integrated service provision and 'joined-up' policy making.
Covid-19 has also drawn attention to the financial fragility of many local authorities. In 2020-21, English local authorities’ spending power was 26% lower than a decade prior. This period also saw population growth of 7%, with rising demand and cost pressures, and new statutory duties for councils relating to public health, social care and homelessness.
For more information see our sections on 'Stronger local economies' and regional inequality.
The National Audit Office describes the financial position of local authorities “a cause for concern”. On top of pre-pandemic funding pressures, they find a £600m shortfall between Covid-related financial pressures and government support, and that 94% of single tier and county councils surveyed expected to cut services in 2021-22.
The House of Lords Public Services Committee has criticised the 'over-centralised' delivery of public services and argued that the pandemic has “demonstrated that certain [services] are best delivered locally”. The Committee also highlighted how underfunding has led to a lack of resilience in local authorities.
Think tank Reform has proposed a radical devolution of public service provision in England. It recommends devolving 95% of NHS England’s budget, along with the devolution of employment and justice services to 38 local commissioning areas.
IPPR North has set out an agenda for devolution in England, including the development of regional authorities.
Geographically-focused banks can play a major role in boosting investment, particularly in disadvantaged areas. They can help to retain wealth within local areas and support greater economic resilience. Distinct from merely the local branch of a high street bank, there are two types of such bank.
The first are localised branches of publicly-owned national investment banks, with a specific remit to support the investment needs of local areas. In the UK it has been proposed that this could be done by creating publicly-owned Post Banks through the Post Office network, or by the government retaining its stake in the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and repurposing it as a series of local banks.
An alternative model would see the expansion of locally-focused cooperative, credit union and community finance organisations. Such institutions have a greater emphasis on high-street and branch banking and excel at lending to smaller businesses.
There is a growing movement to create a network of regionally owned and controlled mutual banks, where customers automatically become co-owners.
All In, the Royal Society of Arts and others make the case for a community savings bank for the North East, in response to the abandonment of many communities due to the closure of retail bank branches. South West Mutual is aiming to be a regional high street bank exclusively focused on the south west of England.
The New Economics Foundation proposes that the UK government retains its majority stake in the Royal Bank of Scotland and transforms it into a public banking network.
The Communication Workers Union and the Democracy Collaborative propose the creation of a publicly owned Post Bank network supported by regional development banks.
Common Weal presents the case for a local, mutually-owned 'public-good banking network' in Scotland to restore bank branches to communities which have lost them.
The New Economics Foundation explores the benefits of cooperative banking. It cites international evidence showing that mutually-owned banks are more focused on supporting high streets, are better at lending to SMEs, and are likely to be better managed and more stable in a crisis. It has published a guide for those who might wish to establish a new regional community bank.
The UK government’s commitment to what it calls ‘levelling up’, improving living standards and economic prospects in England’s disadvantaged regions, has led to widespread calls for the government to prioritise stimulus spending in those areas where unemployment is highest and incomes lowest.
In England city region mayors and others have called for greater resources to be given to local authorities to boost local employment. There is increasing interest in the idea of ‘community wealth building’, generating local economic development by focusing public procurement and business support on local firms, including social enterprises.
For more on local economic development, see our page Stronger local economies.
CLES sets out a practical framework for local authorities to respond to the economic crisis and rebuild fair, inclusive and secure local economies.
Cataloguing current inequities, IPPR North’s annual State of the North report identifies key tests for the government's levelling-up agenda, and sets out a programme for economic investment and democratic empowerment.
A group of metro mayors and others, including former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, have created an Alliance for Full Employment to press for greater investment in job creation across the nations and regions of the UK.
The Local Government Association shows how investment in the creative industries can play a major role in local economy recovery.
The UK’s system of property and land taxation is regressive. This is particularly the case for council tax, where the poorest tenth of the population pay 8% of their income in council tax while the richest 40% pay 2-3%.
While noting that any change to the current system would be politically difficult, there is widespread agreement that the system needs overhaul and many proposals have been made for reform.
One option would be increase the number of council tax bands at the top end, making the tax less regressive. An alternative would be to replace council tax with a proportional tax on the value of housing.
A different option would be to tax the land, not the property. A land value tax is a levy on the rental value of land, rather than the buildings on it. A longstanding reform proposal, this would help ensure that land with housing planning permission was not left derelict or undeveloped. It would also capture the uplift in land value that occurs when infrastructure is built or planning permission granted which has nothing to do with the landowner's own efforts.
Other proposals include the reduction or abolition of stamp duty, which reduces the volume of house sales and acts to discourage older people from downsizing.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies argues for the reform of council tax. Its leading proposal is to combine a revaluation (the current system still uses 1991 house values) with a continuous and proportionate taxation of housing value. It would need to be accompanied by a significant adjustment of council tax funding by central government.
A cross-party, cross-sector Tax Commission convened by Bright Blue proposed an Annual Proportional Property Tax to replace Council Tax and Stamp Duty to help achieve government aims of levelling up and delivering net zero.
Land Value Tax expert Andy Wightman has modelled how a land value tax would work in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. A Land Value Tax is one of the priority recommendations of the Scottish Commission into Housing and Wellbeing.
The New Economics Foundation argue for a land value tax to replace business rates as a source of revenue for local government.