Good morning from New Economy Brief. 

‍

Even a quick internet search of “NHS record high waiting lists” brings up a long list of near-identical stories from nearly every month of the past year. They each detail how unprecedented numbers of patients - millions of them - are waiting for NHS treatment. This month was no exception. Last week, the estimated number of people in England waiting to start routine hospital treatment hit 7.68 million - an estimated all-time high. 

‍

In a bid to meet this rising demand, the government released its long-awaited NHS Long Term Workforce Plan in June. It sets out how the government intends to increase the number of NHS staff in England from 1.5 million to between 2.3 and 2.4 million by 2036-2037.

‍

Unsurprisingly, this will be expensive - at a time when the health service is already entering a “financial crisis”. Critics warn that these costs are unsustainable and say it’s time to consider an alternative to free at the point of use healthcare. Still others argue that it is NHS privatisation that is driving many of these costs and that it should be reversed. But could more health investment save not just the NHS, but the whole economy? 

‍

This week’s New Economy Brief explores the ‘cost’ of meeting the growing NHS demand and why, when it comes to the public finances, health is wealth. 

‍

The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan. The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan aims to “train, retain and reform the workforce, and put the NHS on a sustainable footing into the future”. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) thinks it means average yearly staffing growth of between 3.1% and 3.4%. For comparison, the workforce only grew by around 1.1% a year from 2009-10 to 2019-20. The IFS also reckons that if this growth is achieved, almost half (49%) of public sector workers will work for the NHS by 2036-7. 

• Other costs. The workforce plan includes £2.4 billion of extra funding to train new staff. However, the IFS says it leaves out “the (much larger) medium-term implications of this large increase in staffing for the NHS paybill, nor the required increase in other inputs if the NHS is to treat substantially more patients”. It also estimates that such a rapid expansion of the workforce will require higher wages for NHS workers, perhaps matching or even exceeding real terms pay growth in the rest of the economy. 

‍

Healthy public, healthy public finances. Expanding the NHS is going to cost. But what about the cost of not meeting rising demand for healthcare? Let’s look at two key trends. Firstly, the UK is getting sicker, with the last century’s progress in morbidity and mortality both stalling or even reversing for some groups. Secondly, it is getting poorer. The combination is no coincidence, argues the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). Rather, “growing sickness is making us poorer, as individuals and as a nation” according to the think tank’s new report. More people are economically inactive due to sickness than ever recorded before. This has a profound effect on individuals: becoming seriously ill cuts the average person’s annual earnings by around £2,200. But the costs of sickness don’t stop there. A combination of foregone tax revenue and higher spending on welfare and healthcare makes sickness “one of the gravest fiscal threats facing the country”. Some key stats from IPPR’s report: 

• Foregone tax revenue. The OBR estimates that since just before the pandemic, rising economic inactivity due to sickness and increasing in-work sickness have combined to reduce yearly tax receipts by some £8.9 billion.‍
• Higher welfare spending. The OBR says the above trends have also increased  annual welfare spending by £6.8 billion.‍
• Higher healthcare spending. Finally, the OBR says that whenever someone becomes economically inactive, this costs the NHS an extra £1,800 per person per year (OBR 2023a).

‍

Prevention is better than cure. Policies like the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan focus solely on the ‘supply side’ of healthcare policy. In other words, they try to meet  growing need by allocating more resources. There has been less attention to reforms on the ‘demand side’, argues the IPPR. Healthcare services are generally reactive, “inclined towards ‘one size fits all’ solutions” and focus on treating acute sickness. The IPPR argues that as well as treating sickness, the NHS could respond to “the changing nature of health needs and demography” with “the construction of a complementary ‘prevention service’”. It proposes three structural reforms:

• Putting primary and community care at the centre of prevention. Healthcare spending tends to flow to hospitals, rather than to smaller-scale, local services. The IPPR says that this shows a bigger problem - the UK struggles to invest in the right places. Early years, mental health and community healthcare are identified as key priority areas for “smart investment” in prevention.
• Delivering a social care guarantee. The IPPR argues that decent adult social care is a “central pillar in the shift to prevention”. Getting people the support they need at home and helping them live independently and stay healthy may avoid the need for more acute (and expensive) interventions later. 
• Unlocking ‘prevention-first’ services with Integrated Care Systems. Integrated Care Systems (ICSs) are a “promising” route to better prevention. In theory, they encourage providers to focus on cross-cutting outcomes rather than just considering their own specialisms. However, the IPPR warns ICSs “may yet fail to achieve any meaningful change” if they do not embed a mission-oriented approach, focusing on long-term outcomes for public health, rather than short term targets.

‍

Public spending beyond health. Expanding the health service is expensive, but so is having an unhealthy population. As the IPPR argues, sickness is making us poor. But what about when poverty makes us sick? In many ways, the relationship between Britain’s health and public spending is a vicious circle. According to the Health Foundation, low income, insecure work, debt and poor housing conditions all make illness more likely. All of these issues can be, to some extent, ameliorated with higher public spending. Governments that are afraid to spend money will do less to raise incomes, make housing more affordable or introduce bolder solutions to the cost of living crisis. When fiscal restraint is the political order of the day - as it currently is for the two main parties - policies that could improve people’s health (and therefore reduce NHS demand) are deprioritised.

• Sickness is an economic risk. For many years, healthcare spending has lagged behind demand, leading to falling outcomes and ever-longer waiting lists. Under pressure to curb public debt, politicians of many stripes are reluctant to invest the large sums required to meet healthcare needs and to prevent the conditions that lead to ill health. There is a long-term argument for addressing these conditions: reducing loneliness, poor housing and stagnant incomes. But for the moment, any government that is wary of the cost of saving the NHS - both by meeting existing demand and through better prevention - should know that allowing it to fail could have an even higher price tag. Sickness is an economic risk not just for individuals, but for the country as a whole.

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

Last week, a coalition of over 30 campaign organisations, think tanks and trade unions launched the Early Education and Childcare Coalition (EECC). According to its first report Pulse Check: Public attitudes towards early education and childcare, these issues could be an important factor in the next general election, with 42% of voters saying they will influence their decision.  

But why is childcare so significant for voters? And what are campaigners proposing? This week’s New Economy Brief explores the state of childcare and early education provision in the UK, and why any party hoping for electoral success will need comprehensive proposals for reform.

‍

The childcare problem. Childcare is expensive - particularly in the UK. So much so that it is a key driver of the cost of living crisis, as New Economy Brief explored last year. A couple with median incomes and two young children pay more than half the mother’s net income for childcare, more than double the OECD average and worse than any other OECD country. In a survey of mothers by the campaign group Pregnant Then Screwed, almost half of respondents had considered quitting their jobs because of childcare issues and a quarter skip meals or heating to pay for it. Clearly, the astronomical cost of childcare does profound harm to many parents’ lives - but also to the economy more generally. It’s no surprise that this is a priority for voters. 

• Why is it so bad? One explanation for why the UK has such a bad childcare problem is that the system relies on extractive ownership models. Christine Berry has described how the private-sector model underpinning much of the childcare sector (“often backed by private equity investors and laden with debt”) is the source of high prices, low pay and working standards for childminders and poor quality provision. A UCL Social Research Institute paper explores how private-for-profit and charity (not-for-profit) sectors differed in their use of public money to subsidise childcare provision. (Check out parent-led cooperative childcare company Friendly Families for an example of best practice.)

Public opinion. Unsurprisingly, research by Claremont and More in Common on behalf of The EECC found that very few people oppose reforming and investing in early education and childcare. And, as we mentioned earlier, nearly half of voters said that early years reform will influence them at the general election. What’s more, while voters generally support the expansion of government support announced in the 2023 Spring Budget, only 18% could explain the government’s plans in detail. Support drops from 68% to just 32% when the public is presented with evidence about funding rates, workforce strategy and lack of floor space, which many say make the plans unworkable without more investment.

• Reservations. The disconnect between headline policy announcements and the lack of funding provided has long been a source of frustration for those campaigning for early years reform (such as free and universal childcare). These campaigners may also be disappointed to learn that a significant chunk of voters aren’t keen on universalism, with over half saying that government support for early education and childcare should be targeted at parents who would otherwise struggle to afford it. Furthermore, most of the public (73 per cent) think parents should pay some of the cost of early years education and childcare.
• How to pay for it. When childcare is so unaffordable for so many, why are voters not clamouring for a free and universal alternative? Essentially, because they don’t know how the government could fund it. Qualitative research carried out for the EECC found that voters worry about “value for money” and are concerned that government money is tight: “Participants wanted to know how much government plans were likely to cost and how they would be funded.” 

Social infrastructure. One of the report’s key findings was that voters do not see longer term, economic benefits to investing in early education and childcare. However, they clearly care about value for money, with around half (47%) saying that increased investment is a good idea only if the economic benefits outweigh the costs. In other words, voters think it is a good idea for the Government to spend money on childcare if we eventually see the returns. According to economists, this is exactly what would happen. Researchers Jerome De Henau and Susan Himmelweit calculated that 30 hours of free childcare for all children aged between 6 months and 4.5 years, with a pay rise for carers, would cost £10.4bn. This investment would create 310,000 new full time jobs and 70% of the spending could be recouped from increased tax receipts as more people were enabled to take on more work. At the moment, spending on public services such as childcare is seen as “current expenditure” or “public consumption”. But because of its positive implications for growth and productivity, think tanks and campaigners have argued that it should instead be viewed as ‘social infrastructure’ and therefore as investment. This would allow governments to spend more on childcare and early years and consider this spending as part of longer term policy.

Clearly, childcare and early years provision is a key issue for the public and a worry for families up and down the country. However, when it comes to solutions, the problem is met with a degree of fatalism, with voters lacking confidence that there is enough money to reform the system. It seems, though, that voters don’t mind spending as long as there is a return on investment. Perhaps a focus on the long term benefits of childcare investment, and its role as social infrastructure, is the answer to persuading more voters to back more structural childcare reform.

Good morning from New Economy Brief. 

It’s no secret that the UK is suffering from an investment gap, consistently ranking lowest in the G7 for private investment and well below average for public investment. In fact, UK investment as a proportion of GDP hasn’t made it above the G7 median since 1990. But in gloomy economic times, investment is exactly what the UK needs. From the US Inflation Reduction Act to the EU’s Green Deal Industrial Plan, governments around the world are realising that investment is the key to boosting growth and stepping up to the challenge of Net Zero. For the moment at least, it seems the UK is getting left behind. 

This week’s newsletter explores different methods of state investment, including a new proposal from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) for a National Investment Fund. 

‍

The current state of affairs. So how does a state actually invest? Before we look at the IPPR’s new proposal, let’s explore some existing mechanisms: 

• Sovereign wealth funds. These are a relatively recent concept and have grown rapidly since 2008. The International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds (a network of more than 30 IMF member countries which have such funds, define sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) as “special purpose investment funds or arrangements that are owned by the general government”. According to the IPPR, SWFs aim to “maximise the long-term returns of a country’s global investments for future current expenditure requirements”. They typically invest in overseas assets, so their main goal is to maximise financial returns, not to support domestic industrial policy. The UK has been called an ‘outlier’ for not yet having a SWF of its own. 
• State grant funding. Unlike SWFs, state grant funding aims to promote domestic industry, strategically directing investment towards certain industries or activities. It comes in the form of one-off fee transfers, so it does not generate a direct financial return for the state. 
• State investment banks. If sovereign wealth funds exist at one end of a scale and state grant funding at the other, state investment banks can be found in the middle. While the former aims to improve financial returns and the latter to boost domestic industry, state investment banks (SIBs) seek to balance the two, providing “a reliable, longer-term, and lower-cost source of finance that private counterparts may be unwilling to supply due to a lack of market incentives”. 
• The UK’s history of state investment banks. According to the IPPR, the UK has never introduced a state investment bank on a comparable scale to other European countries, and the Green Investment Bank, established in 2012 to help finance the green transition, was privatised and sold to Macquarie five years later. In 2021, the UK Infrastructure Bank (UKIB) was established to plug the gap left when the UK lost access to the European Investment Bank after leaving the EU. But this year, the Public Accounts Committee noted that the Bank's impact so far has been limited by the relatively conventional nature of its investments. Of its 10 deals so far, seven were loans and while the other three did involve taking equity directly, instead making investments via equity funds. The committee questioned whether the UKIB is really financing projects that would be too new or risky for the private sector.

‍

A national investment fund. To plug the UK’s investment gap, the IPPR proposes the establishment of a National Investment Fund (NIF). This would provide finance to help companies expand green manufacturing activities and decarbonise heavy industrial processes. To access investment from the NIF, companies would have to sign up to specific projects aimed at making them more sustainable - for example, investing in net zero manufacturing technologies. The IPPR says the NIF would not be “picking winners” but instead “picking the willing”. It would publicly outline the kinds of economic activity eligible for funding (according to policy priorities), and companies would then draw up project proposals. 

• Geography. Unlike SWFs, the NIF would only invest domestically. It would also encourage investment in economically weaker areas, as measured with specified economic indicators. All else being equal, a company in less economically prosperous areas would be preferred. 
• Financing. The NIF would operate through equity financing and equity-convertible loans. Although these would be real investments, intended to make a profit, they would also aim to support industrial policy objectives. In some cases this could mean waiting longer for a project to become economically viable and start generating financial returns.. The NIF’s immediate purpose would be to lower the overall financing costs of long-term investment projects, securing their cost effectiveness in advance.
• So, what’s new? The NIF would complement existing public financing institutions, not replace them. It would have similar financial and policy objectives to a traditional state investment bank, but would focus more on industrial strategy less on  financial returns on investment, helping steer the economy towards certain objectives. But what would really set NIF apart from a traditional state investment bank is the equity element, which has been  dubbed ‘Dragon’s Den investment’. Instead of merely offering loans, the state would become a co-owner of the businesses it invests in.

‍The politics of investment. Following the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), how to finance the green transition has been a central political question on both sides of the Atlantic. While Labour’s pledge to invest £28bn a year a part of the Green Prosperity Plan has had its fiscal prudence scrutinised, with Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently arguing that “economic stability, financial stability, always has to come first”, less attention has been paid to how such investment should be made. Last year Reeves argued for a National Wealth Fund, but there is little detail on how it would operate. As IPPR’s paper shows, this question is almost as important as the scale of investment itself. As an election approaches, it will be interesting to see how political parties propose to close the investment gap, and whether any of them seize on the idea of a NIF as a model that would work for the UK.

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

This week’s newsletter examines the politics of the cost of living by exploring new polling from Stop the Squeeze that takes an in-depth look into how voters are processing the policy debates around it, and how important the issue will be to the forthcoming general election.

‍

The cost of living crisis will swing the next general election. As the summer ends, political parties are gearing up for an impending general election. We may not know exactly when it will happen, but the issues it will be fought on are becoming clearer. The Bottom Line: How Bold Action on the Cost of Living is Key to the Next Election, a new report from the steering group of Stop the Squeeze (a coalition of 50 civil society organisations campaigning for structural solutions to the cost of living crisis), sheds new light on a crucial one. The report sets out to discover what voters, and especially key swing voters, are hearing from the parties, how they are responding, and the kinds of messages and policies on the cost of living crisis that might sway them in 2024.

• Policies to tackle the cost of living crisis are critical to swing voters. The cost of living crisis will be the second-biggest factor in voters' decisions at the next election, just behind the NHS. This is especially true for voters in the vital swing voter demographic which is sometimes called ‘Stevenage Woman’. Here, the cost of living, the NHS, and the economy are the only issues that gain any sort of traction - no more than 17% of people identified any  other issues as important.
• …but voters aren’t confident in either major party on the issue. While the cost of living is a priority for most voters (50%), far fewer (<25%) think the same is true of either of the main parties. For swing voters, this is even lower (<20%). Both parties need to do much more to reassure voters that they really care about the cost of living, and have a clear plan to bring it down. (This supports previous findings by The New Britain Project and More in Common on the lack of trust in politicians to solve the crisis.)
• The Conservatives are losing voters on the cost of living, but Labour could do much more to win them. Labour may be slightly ahead in being seen as the party with a better plan to tackle the crisis, but a Labour majority is certainly not in the bag. Only one in ten (11%) Conservative 2019 voters rate Labour higher on the cost of living, with more than three times as many (37%) not choosing either party. Three quarters of voters don’t have a clear idea of what Labour would do to solve the crisis, implying that Labour has yet to land the message that it has a real plan to improve people's living standards. Overall only 15% of voters have a good idea of what either party would do to address the crisis, indicating that the public have noticed the absence of proactive policies. Lots of voters are still in play, and a stronger policy offer from the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats could have a huge impact on the result. For Labour, the issue is less that the public think the party is focused on the wrong things, and more that they are not sure what its priorities are at all. 

‍

How to win over swing voters on the cost of living. The voter group dubbed 'Stevenage Woman’ (or ‘Disillusioned Suburbans’) by the think tank Labour Together will be particularly important in the next election. Representing 21.8% of the electorate in England and Wales, these voters are particularly well represented in the East of England, in London’s suburbs, and in the North East and West. They are young, economically insecure, worried about their finances, and unlikely to own their own homes. They are not highly politicised, but are generally socially conservative while leaning left on the economy. How this group votes will decide which party wins the next general election. As Labour Together say: “A working majority depends on Labour’s ability to convert their current support amongst Disillusioned Suburbans into votes at an election.” So how can political parties win over these crucial voters?

• The public support bolder messaging and more ambitious policies. Stevenage Woman wants to be shown practical policy solutions that will make her own personal finances more secure. The Stop the Squeeze report demonstrates that clear, concrete policies to deal with the rising cost of living, such as lowering energy bills, increasing the minimum wage and social security payments, and raising taxes on the super rich, would help Labour win over this crucial target group (policies such as the National Living Income and the National Energy Guarantee proposed by the New Economics Foundation could fit into this bracket, and there are lots of options for increasing taxes on the wealthy, as explained by Tax Justice UK). While putting policies like these on the table might be unpopular with some voters, the report argues that having a political argument around these policies could reinforce the message that Labour does have a plan on the cost of living, strengthening resolve among key voters and increasing the chances of those voters actually turning out on polling day. Conversely, if the Conservatives were to make a renewed offer on the cost of living at the election, this could chip into some soft Labour support and leave the party vulnerable.‍
• What policies do swing voters want? Voters prefer government support for energy bills, which continue to be a major source of pain for many families. Help with mortgage and rent payments also performed very strongly in the polling. Increasing the minimum wage ranks second highest for swing voters, and performs well across all demographics. It is more popular than cutting taxes on wages for everyone, except among right-leaning demographics. ‍‍
• ‍Tax cuts are a red herring. Political debates have focused heavily on the level of taxation over recent years, but there is no real evidence that the public see tax cuts as the answer to the cost of living crisis. Cutting taxes on wages came sixth out of a list of possible priorities for action, only performing strongly among core Conservative supporters. Cutting taxes on goods and services (i.e. VAT) was slightly more popular overall. Overall a party could get significantly more mileage from policies to reduce the impact of escalating energy and housing costs than from offering tax cuts. Voters also overwhelmingly think that cost of living support should be funded by taxing the richest in society, although they remain divided on the question of whether or not additional spending on this would be inflationary.

‍

The political opportunity for all parties. The report suggests that a party that is willing to make a bigger offer on the cost of living, focused on areas the public care about such as energy bills and housing costs, and funded by taxation of wealth, could reap the rewards with voters who are desperate for government action that could really improve their lives.

• In summary: Voters think the cost of living is one of the most important issues for the next election - if not the most important. They think neither party cares about it as much as they do. And while they lean towards Labour on the issue, they don’t have a clear idea of what either party proposes to do to address the crisis. This creates a significant opportunity for both parties. This matters both because it indicates that a Conservative comeback is still possible, but also because the lack of policy solutions on offer is highly likely to lead to voter apathy and low turnout.‍
• The road to a Labour majority? If Labour were to put forward bolder policy solutions on the cost of living, this could help them win over key swing voters like ‘Stevenage Woman’ in the run up to the next election. This supports an argument made by Alistair Campbell, who says that Labour needs to develop “a positive policy agenda that would persuade the country that Labour was a credible and compelling alternative…in order to turn possible into probable, or move the prospects of a hung Parliament into a good Labour majority”.

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

‍

Recent changes in inflation and average earnings figures have subtly changed the politics of social security uprating this year, intensifying scrutiny of the state pension ‘triple lock’. 

‍

This week we explore how those changes feed through the uprating system and ask whether working age social security payments should have a ‘triple lock’ of their own - a policy which new polling shows has broad political support. 

‍

Falling inflation, rising wages? Last week, media headlines celebrated the biggest six-month fall in inflation in over three decades, proclaiming we’d reached a turning point as monthly CPI showed ‘record pay growth’ outpacing inflation for the first time since the cost of living crisis entered the political lexicon. 

• It's not all good news, though. The Resolution Foundation’s James Smith reminds us that the UK still faces the worst inflation in the G7 (at 6.8%). The Trades Union Congress’s Alex Collinson criticises the ‘misleading’ positive headlines about this month's pay growth and inflation figures, noting that real pay is still falling and remains £22 per week lower than in 2008. As Collinson notes, headline pay growth is mainly being driven by the finance sector, and most people who work elsewhere in the economy are still not receiving pay rises that outstrip inflation. (Real public sector wages are particularly bad - down £51 per week since 2008).

‍

Pensions will be uprated by (misleading) rising pay growth figures. One consequence of rising headline earnings and falling inflation is that the state pension may be uprated by a higher percentage than working age benefits later this year, because of how the uprating mechanism works. Essentially, under the triple lock, pensions rise each April by whichever is highest: the rate of pay growth (measured in July the previous year), inflation (September figures), or 2.5%. This has protected pensioners’ incomes from inflation since being introduced by the Coalition government in 2010. 

• But social security will (probably) be uprated by lower headline inflation figures. Yet there is no similar legal mechanism that pegs social security (or indeed the minimum wage) to inflation, meaning civil society has to repeat the same battle to pressure the government to protect the real value of social security benefits from being eroded by inflation. The absence of a triple lock for working age benefits means that for the first time in this cost of living crisis, the state pension will almost certainly increase more than working age social security payments.
• Already inadequate. The gap between income received from working age benefits and the cost of living continues to grow. In 2013, social security covered 39% of the cost of living for a single person over 25 after housing costs. This has now fallen to just 28%. Universal credit is now falling £890 a month short of paying for essentials, despite its inflation-linked uprating. This is because “rates are not benchmarked to a meaningful assessment of need,” explains the New Economics Foundation’s Sam Tims.
• Reverse ferret? Interestingly, earlier in the summer when inflation was higher than earnings growth, government sources were briefing that this year the government would save money by starting to use the former as the basis for uprating social security payments. Now the situation is reversed, and though the government has not indicated which metric they will use, it’s still unlikely to be the higher one.

‍

Triple lock for social security? The government should seek to recreate the success of the triple lock policy by applying it to working-age social security payments, as well as the state pension, argues Paul Waugh in the i. Waugh says the policy’s costs over time would be modest, and that it could “cut child poverty as effectively as it has cut pensioner poverty in recent years”. 

• Politics of the triple lock. Waugh argues that the triple lock should be a driver of social solidarity between generations - rather than used to drive a wedge between them. He cites new polling research from the Stop the Squeeze campaign finding that extending the triple lock to working age benefits would be popular with voters across the political spectrum. (59% back the policy, with only 21% opposed, and twice as many Conservative voters (61%) support the move as oppose it (31%).) 
• The triple lock on pensions comes under pressure. The Office for Budget Responsibility has warned about the soaring cost of the triple lock on pensions as inflation increases its price tag, but last week Rishi Sunak pledged to protect it despite it costing an extra ~£10bn next year. The Conservatives will be reluctant to drop the triple lock due to their need for ‘the grey vote’, as Onward’s Adam Hawksbee explains: “People of pensionable age make up a sizable portion of the Conservative vote, and those who have shifted towards “don’t know” since 2019 are disproportionately of that demographic.”

Good morning from New Economy Brief.‍

Last week the Italian government announced a windfall tax on the country’s bank profits, before, rather chaotically, changing course and watering down the policy the next day, seemingly because of falling share prices of the banks.

This episode isn’t a wonderful advert for policy-making- but the question of whether bank profits should be taxed more highly is a serious one. Campaigners in the UK argue that banks are reaping windfall profits due to rising interest rates, and that taxing them could raise billions to support public services or cost of living support.

This week’s New Economy Brief examines why banks are making huge profits, and the case for taxing them.

‍

Banking the rewards. The fact that UK banks are making record profits is not contested, but the scale of these profits is eye-popping. According to think tank Positive Money, UK banks made record profits of £33bn in 2022, and are set to blow that figure out of the water in 2023. In the first half of 2023, the Big Four UK high street banks (Barclays, Lloyds, HSBC and NatWest) alone made pre-tax profits of over £28bn, an 80% increase from last year and 725% up on 2020.

• What is going on? There are a number of factors driving bank super-profits, but the crux of the story is the impact of rising interest rates. The Bank of England’s policy of sharply raising interest rates in response to inflation has boosted bank profitability in two crucial ways, one which has received some coverage, and one which has received a lot less.
• Failure of transmission. The first is the way in which banks pass on the impact of rising interest rates to their customers. Broadly speaking this happens through two mechanisms; raising the cost of borrowing (mainly the interest rates on mortgages) and raising the interest rate customers get on savings. Anyone who has been following the mortgage market will know that banks have been very quick to pass on interest rate rises to mortgages (although most existing mortgage holders will be shielded for a time by fixed rate deals). But they have allegedly been less assiduous at rewarding savers with higher interest rates. This delay in passing on the higher rates to savers boosts bank profitability, as banks will be charging higher rates on money they are lending out, without offering those same rates to those depositing money in the bank. This prompted the Financial Conduct Authority to issue a warning to banks last month that it will not tolerate this kind of practice, while Conservative Treasury Committee Chair Harriet Baldwin put it more bluntly: “It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that our biggest banks are taking advantage of their most loyal customers to increase profits and CEO pay”.
• Central bank reserves. Where the picture gets really complicated is when it comes to the issue of central bank reserves, and the messy interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. The story starts with the enormous programme of Quantitative Easing (QE) undertaken by the Bank of England since the financial crisis in order to support the economy when interest rates were at rock bottom. This involved the creation of new money in the form of central bank reserves, which were used to purchase government bonds through the Bank’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF). The reserves that were created are held by private banks, and remunerated by the Bank at the base rate. Given that the rate that the Bank was getting on the bonds it purchased was higher than the base rate, this meant the Bank made big profits, which were recycled back to the Treasury. But now that the base rate has risen substantially, the Bank is actually paying significantly more in interest on its reserves than it is receiving on the bonds it holds. The Treasury is on the hook for these higher interest payments, so in effect what we are seeing is direct transfer from the Treasury to private banks who are holding large amounts of central bank reserves.
• How much are we talking? It’s a lot. The Bank of England created nearly a trillion pounds of central bank reserves through QE. These have started to be unwound as the bonds mature through the Quantitative Tightening programme, but banks are still holding hundreds of billions in central bank reserves. Last year the New Economics Foundation estimated what the impact of rising rates would be on fiscal transfers to the banking sector. They found that over the OBR’s five-year forecast period,taking into account the QT programme, an average base rate of 4% would result in a transfer of £161bn from the Treasury to the banks. Given that the base rate is already over 5%, and expected to remain high for some time, this might be a reasonably likely scenario. Certainly we can expect the transfer from the Treasury to banks this year to be in the tens of billions as a result of higher interest on central bank reserves.

‍

So is this a windfall? Campaigners argue that, just as energy companies are benefiting from high global gas prices, banks are profiting from high interest rates despite not doing anything to ‘earn’ these profits in terms of productivity gains or being rewarded for risks that they have taken. The point about the central bank reserves is that they are risk-free for the banks, and now they are effectively being given a huge reward for holding them.

• Undermining policy. In fact, some of the ways in which the profit is being made is actively working against government policy. Not passing on interest rates to savers, for example, blunts the effectiveness of interest rates in reducing headline inflation. Similarly, at a time when public services are struggling and politicians are arguing that there is ‘no money left’, it is hard to justify huge income transfers from taxpayers to banks, simply because those banks are holding risk-free central bank reserves.

‍

To tax or not to tax. For some campaigners this is a slam dunk case. Positive Money, for example, is arguing that this is clearly the case of a windfall that should be taxed. They say the simplest way to do this would be to raise the Bank surcharge from 3% to 35% (the same as the energy windfall tax) and estimate this would raise around £20bn this year from the Big Four banks alone that could be spent on public services or cost of living support. This would still leave banks incredibly profitable by historical standards. The windfall tax idea has gained support from ex Bank of England Deputy Governor Sir Charlie Bean, who has argued that it could raise tens of billions of much-needed revenue for the exchequer.

• International precedent. The botched Italian windfall tax may not be a wonderful advert for the policy, but Italy is far from the only country to impose a windfall tax on banks. A host of European governments including Spain, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Lithuania have imposed such windfalls. The FT summarises how windfall taxes are being used across Europe in response to the cost of living crisis.
• The Lady was for taxing. The main historical parallel for such a such comes from an unlikely source. In 1981 Margaret Thatcher imposed a windfall tax on banks in very similar circumstances (having first levied one on the oil and gas sector). The justification was that: “they had made their large profits as a result of our policy of high interest rates, rather than because of increased efficiency or better service to the customer.”
• The case against. Opponents of a windfall tax have two central arguments. The first is that bank profits are not a windfall, that they are a natural result of raising interest rates, and that bank profits always fluctuate according to conditions in the economy. The second is that imposing such a windfall tax could have negative economic consequences, by lowering bank share prices (as happened in Italy), hitting investment, and causing instability in the sector. US think-tank the Tax Foundation has accused governments of “punitively targeting certain industries” and some have argued for tightening of regulations instead of taxes. On the instability point, Dan Neidle, from Tax Policy Associates, argued that the original Italian proposal was incredibly badly designed and communicated, and it was this, rather than the principle of a windfall tax, which spooked the markets (others would argue that policy should not be determined by what is best for the share price of banks).
• Longer term solutions. Finally, it is worth pointing out that a windfall tax will not solve the underlying issue of the unintended interaction between monetary and fiscal policy as a result of private banks holding central bank reserves. There is arguably no good policy reason why banks should be making huge profits from this, and the New Economics Foundation has argued that the UK should adopt a ‘tiered reserves’ policy where interest is only paid on a portion of reserves held by banks. Both the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan operate tiered reserve systems, and NEF argues that the UK should follow suit and stop this problem at source, saving billions and untangling the muddle of monetary and fiscal policy in the process.

‍

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

The concept of economic security is gaining traction in British politics. The Labour Party have made ‘securonomics’ a central frame for their green industrial strategy, and more of the public, particularly swing voters, are longing for more secure personal finances.

But, aside from energy, what would policy that backs up this rhetoric look like? Couldn’t improving economic security be a successful political frame for a holistic economic strategy to build more secure workplaces, secure childcare provision, secure housing, reformed social security, and more? 

This week’s New Economy Brief explores a new paper from JRF’s Graeme Cooke, who proposes economic security as “a lens through which we can diagnose where we’re falling short as a society, and for inspiring and guiding a project of social reform in response”.

‍

‘Securonomics’ and secure personal finances. Rachel Reeves made ‘securonomics’ a central plank of Labour’s economic policy platform earlier this year, referring mainly to the use of a more active and interventionist state to improve the resilience of supply chains and disperse opportunities for economic growth across the country. (See our explainer here.) The New Statesman’s Anoosh Chakelian documents how the concept of security has spread around the Labour leadership’s communications and policy development. And now, a new paper by Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s Graeme Cooke argues that improving economic security for individuals could be a valuable frame for a political strategy of social reform and electoral success.

• Economic security. In a comment piece for the New Statesman, Cooke explains that the concept of economic security is “rooted in household finances”, how they interact with income, costs, assets and debt, but also how wider factors such as employment, housing, education and health affect households exposure to risks (“concrete, everyday experiences” such as “a cancelled shift, an unexpected rent hike…childcare falling through…rising borrowing costs”) and their ability to cope in a more uncertain world. 
• Political philosophy. He argues that “economic security puts human agency centre-stage, in pursuit of autonomy, control and individuality, drawing on Isaiah Berlin’s notion of ‘positive freedom’, “where true liberty requires far more than the removal of external constraints”; security is “a precondition for people to feel in control of their life, to have a stake in the future, and to believe that daily efforts can pay off and that hard work will be rewarded.“ Improving the economic security of individuals is a logical progression of Labour’s green industrial strategy, which goes beyond neoliberal ideals of the role of the state (beyond free-market ideals of efficiency, towards personal and collective resilience).

‍

Policies for improving economic security. In policy terms, a strategy for expanding economic security combines “defensive action to protect against harmful insecurities, by placing limits on markets and entrenching state-backed minimums”, with “positive action to advance the foundations of security”. Cooke argues that longer term trends have undermined the foundations of security - such as precarious employment, wealth inequality, rising poverty and the crisis in care services - and proposes various social reforms for a government to protect personal finances in response. Let's take a look at some of these:

• Secure childcare. UK families face some of the most expensive childcare costs in the OECD, which eats into household incomes and holds back earnings from work. (See our Briefing on childcare as an underreported driver of the cost of living crisis.) Cooke explains that “a pro-security response” to the childcare crisis would invest in a system of social infrastructure to protect parents from losing out and “creating statutory care pay, modelled on maternity provision, to enable people to look after loved ones without losing their attachment to the world of work”. The Women’s Budget Group has proposed a universal and free childcare system, delivered as a public infrastructure service on an equal footing with school education, which can largely pay for itself due to the increased tax receipts from parents being able to return to work. 
• Secure housing. Housing has become increasingly insecure in recent years. The proportion of households in the private rental sector has more than doubled over the last 20 years, and more secure tenures such as owner-occupied or socially rented homes have also been in decline. This exposes more of the population to unexpected rent hikes, evictions and a lack of stability. Cooke suggests a strategy to improve security of housing would involve intervening in markets to increase more secure housing tenures, for instance by “establishing a publicly owned master develop to drive the delivery of major new settlements in the public interest (maximising homes for resident-owners and social rent)” and creating “an institutional vehicle to support social landlords to turn the properties of distressed buy-to-let landlords into homes for social and sub-market rent”. (See JRF’s paper for more on this policy, plus our previous briefing on ‘navigating a housing market crisis’ and the idea of a common ground trust.)
• Social security. The value of unemployment benefits (core working age benefit) is at its lowest in real terms for almost 40 years, and only replaces 12% of average earnings, so more and more people are falling into deep poverty. Cooke proposes that “guaranteeing that Universal Credit is enough to afford the essentials would establish a foundation for economic security, as would addressing state-driven insecurity in the benefits system (like the operation of sanctions and the extent of income volatility for low earners).” (See NEF’s proposal for a National Living Income to cover the rising cost of living.)

‍

Security as a frame for a ‘retail offer’. The concept of economic security is an interesting political strategy that justifies ambitious interventions in markets, whilst aligning with how the public’s views have changed after successive economic crises and linking to their day-to-day concerns about their finances. NatCen’s latest Society Watch has found that concern about money or debt, mental health and work-life balance have all risen since 2018, where 40% of Brits are now “very or extremely worried” about money or debt. A political programme and economic strategy to improve economic security could be a helpful frame for pinning a ‘retail offer’ to voters on the cost of living. Crucially, this framing can help to place the burden of risk onto the status quo, meaning that solutions that might otherwise seem radical are seen in a different light by voters. 

• Swing voters and economic insecurity. The Onward report that identified ‘Workington Man’ as the swing ‘red wall’ voter which could win the Conservatives the 2019 General Election argued there was a “sea change in British politics away from freedom and towards security”. Whilst Labour Together has more recently identified ‘Stevenage Woman’ as the swing voter Labour needs in order to win the next general election, and found that she could be won over with “a politics grounded in providing ‘security’ in the form of secure work, safe streets and a strong nation”. Anoosh Chakelian argues that “security on the left means strengthening the state, protecting the country from geopolitical shocks, enhancing social bonds, and sheltering individuals and places from market forces”, whilst Graeme Cooke argues that social reforms which are justified on grounds of improving economic security can mobilise support from across the political spectrum. 

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

In the words of Joss Garman (Director of the European Climate Foundation), decarbonisation has become “the dominant question in British politics” and this week, the Prime Minister is keen to tell us which side he’s on. The PM kicked off the Government’s ‘Energy Week’ on Monday by giving the green light to hundreds of new oil and gas licences. This followed a weekend in which he branded himself as on the “side” of motorists. 

What is the logic here? Time and time again, polls show that the British public is growing increasingly concerned about the climate crisis. But there’s a caveat - polls also show that voters only back Net Zero policies when it doesn’t cost them too much. The government’s answer is to talk the language of cleaner energy, while simultaneously trying to draw a dividing line with Labour on energy security. How do they square that circle? Carbon capture and storage. By capturing the carbon dioxide that is released in the process of using fossil fuels, then storing it back in the ground, the Government argues that you can have your Net Zero cake and eat it. But is it all too good to be true?

This week, we take a look at the political debate around decarbonisation and whether carbon capture is the silver bullet the Government claims it to be.

‍

What actually is carbon capture? Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is often promoted as a useful tool to mitigate the use of fossil fuels during the transition to more renewable energy sources and is seen by some as a vital part of Net Zero strategy. It encompasses a range of technologies which take two basic forms. One type of CCS relies on human-made processes to capture carbon and store it deep underground. This may involve giant air filters to capture CO2 directly from the atmosphere or pre-combustion methods which separate CO2 from hydrogen before fuel is burnt. Once the carbon is captured, it must then be stored. This may involve the use of saline aquifers: underground formations of sedimentary rock filled with salt water that are injected with CO2 to be stored permanently. The other main type of CCS involves taking advantage of nature’s capacity to absorb CO2, using ‘carbon sinks’ such as forests and wetlands to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Sometimes, the use of natural materials is taken one step further, using a technology called bioenergy with CCS (BECCS). More on this later… 

• Does it work? So, CCS can take many forms - but is it effective? Its supporters would say so, pointing to Norway’s CCS operations that have been running since 1996, storing “close to a million tonnes of CO2 every year”. Many, including climate change think tank E3G, say that the large-scale deployment of CCS is critical for the transition to Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. However, even advocates of CCS, argue that while the technology can play a vital role in net zero transition, it must be considered as a last resort to complement other decarbonisation policies (such as rapid expansion of renewable energy).
• A distraction? One of the main problems with CCS, critics argue, is that it is a “distraction” from other decarbonisation methods such as renewable energy, energy efficiency and consumption reduction. While it may be a useful tool to mitigate the harm caused by fossil fuel use in the meantime, some say that it deflects precious resources away from the mission of transitioning to fully renewable energy altogether. And as we’ve seen with Rishi Sunak’s announcements this week, it can often be used as a sticking plaster policy by Governments who are reluctant to fully transition from fossil fuels to renewables, rather than as a helpful interim tool.
• A long way off. Another issue with CCS is that it might not actually be ready to use at scale. Research commissioned by Friends of the Earth Scotland and Global Witness found that “significant CCS cannot be expected in the energy sector until the 2030s at least”. In 2021, when this research was published, global operational CCS capacity was 39MtCO2 per year - about 0.1% of annual global emissions from fossil fuels. The research also highlights that to reach the Climate Change Committee’s projected CCS capacity of up to 176MtCO2 by 2050, the UK would have to quadruple the entire global CCS capacity. 
• The “scam” of CCS and its history. Some critics of CCS argue that it can help energy companies to produce even more fossil fuels and profit from higher production, all while receiving Government support for using a ‘green’ technology. Greenpeace describes CCS as the “Great Carbon Capture Scam” - a scam that can be dated to as far back as 1972 when US energy company Chevron used waste carbon dioxide from a gas field to extend the life of another field 400 kilometres away. After using the CO2, the company vented the gas, meaning that there was “no real climate advantage”, but the technology did help to produce more oil. CCS has since been used in several cases “primarily” to “enhance oil production” rather than to offset or capture emissions, even in cases where companies have received huge Government grants for the storage. Greenpeace has described this practice as socialising costs and privatising profits. 
• The dangers of BECCS. One method of carbon capture is Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) which often involves the capturing of carbon via the photosynthesis of biomass crops. The biomass is then harvested and taken to a power plant where it is burned for energy. Some of the carbon released during the burning process is then recaptured and stored underground. Friends of the Earth has argued that not only does BECCS distract from “taking real action”, but will also “have unimaginable social and ecological impacts” due to the “deforestation” and “land-grabbing” required to provide biomass for BECCS at scale.
• Energy security. Even if CCS was perfectly effective, it still means that we’re reliant on oil and gas. As we’ve seen recently, this reliance exposes us to energy insecurity and volatile international markets. Just because the drilling happens just off our shores doesn’t mean that we reap all the benefits - much of the oil and gas is exported. 

‍Can we transition without CCS? Obviously, less reliance on CCS means more reliance on other technologies or major shifts in behaviour. As part of the Paris Agreement, Integrated Assessment Model scenarios “with low or no CCS deployment require considerable increases in energy efficiency and near-term rapid fall in energy demand”. Reducing energy demand or increasing efficiency obviously require huge investment and behavioural change to have as effective an impact as possible. According to the think tank Ember, reaching “clean power” by 2030 means adding 90GW of wind and solar in the next 8 years. Currently, wind and solar have a combined total installed capacity of 42GW. Bridging that gap requires a lot of investment. However, many argue that investment in renewable energy is more cost effective and more efficient than investment in carbon capture which, as we’ve explored, has had limited proven success so far. According to research by Nature Energy, even moderately efficient renewable locations (e.g. for wind and solar power) “provide a better energy return than the majority of carbon capture technologies”. 

• Ecosystem restoration. While chemical carbon storage, as promoted by the UK Government this week, has had limited success in recent years and could take a while to provide any benefits, some argue that the natural alternative could be the answer. Ecosystem restoration (for example of woodlands), would boost the country’s natural carbon sinks at relatively little cost. According to Green Alliance, new woodland is “expected to play a significant role” in carbon capture, with woodland “the only removal method deployed as scale in the UK” so far. Carbon markets, in which farmers and land managers are incentivised to plant trees and protect woodland can help to ensure that woodland is protected as a natural carbon sink. A total of 3,421 hectares of woodland were planted under the Woodland Carbon Code (WCC) in 2021-22, according to Green Alliance.
• Batteries. The problem with a lot of renewable energy is that its efficacy relies on the weather. Batteries, however, can store surplus energy for a rainy day (or rather, a less windy or sunny day) and therefore adjust supply and demand to balance the system. The Climate Change Committee has argued that not only do we need batteries, but the use of surplus generation “to produce hydrogen through electrolysis (‘green hydrogen’), providing long-term storage so it can later be used to generate electricity”.‍

‍So what does this all mean? The announcement of this week should be seen as primarily driven by politics, and the attempt by the government to create a dividing line on climate that positions themselves on the side of energy security and lower bills. Whether it will work or not remains to be seen, but whatever the political situation after the next election the debate about which technologies to pursue in the green transition is unlikely to go away. If victorious next year, the Labour Party will inherit the same “dominant question” of our times - decarbonisation - and will have to decide how it answers it. As the PM positions himself firmly on one side of the debate, Sir Keir Starmer will have to decide whether to join him or to take a different approach.

Good morning from New Economy Brief. 

Almost all Belgian workers have their wages automatically uprated by the rate of inflation, which ensures their standards of living are maintained and not eroded by rising prices.

Critics of the scheme argue that this should have produced a wage-price spiral…but it hasn’t. In fact, inflation in Belgium is dropping faster than many other economies. Why?

In the context of ongoing public sector strikes across the UK and slightly better than expected inflation figures last week, this week’s New Economy Brief looks at the system of wage indexation in Belgium and draws some lessons for the UK government.

‍

Belgian workers are insulated from the rising cost of living. Despite wages being eroded by inflation across the world, Belgian wages have been the most resilient across the OECD. Real wages have actually risen by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023, where the OECD average was a 3.8% fall. This is due to Belgium’s unique system of wage indexation, which protects workers pay packets from any rise in inflation. Critics say this will lead to a wage-price spiral, but this is yet to materialise - in fact, CPI inflation in Belgium has been falling much faster than comparable economies this year; inflation peaked at 10.3% last year, and the European Commission forecasts it to fall to 3.4% in this year. What’s going on here?

• How does indexation work? The Belgian system of wage indexation insulates households from inflationary shocks and shifts the burden of adjustment to firms and the government, as employers and the state are legally mandated to uprate public and private sector salaries. Since 1996, the Law on the Promotion of Employment and Maintaining Competitiveness obliges ‘social partners’ to negotiate salary increases over a two-year period within the bounds of an upper limit set by anticipated hourly wage developments in key export markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands) and a floor determined by expected inflation in Belgium. A good explainer on wage indexation systems by UNI Europa explains that nearly all Belgian workers have some form of automatic wage adjustment to account for inflation due to the almost 100% collective bargaining coverage rate and state-facilitated sectoral bargaining.
• Inflation triggers automatic increases in wages. Wages are linked to inflation by a ‘health index’ - a calculation of the price of a basket of goods that excludes energy and unhealthy consumption items like tobacco and alcohol. Whenever a 4 month moving average of the health index increases by 2% or more, all public sector wages, most private sector wages, pensions and social security benefits are uprated by an equivalent amount.
• Stronger purchasing power has bolstered Belgian growth. Wage indexation has led to a more resilient economy in Belgium, as it “cushions the blow of higher prices on the purchasing power of consumers to a considerable extent” in the words of a recent paper by the International Monetary Fund. The European Commission also reports that: “Economic growth in Belgium is expected to reach 1.2% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, on the back of resilient private consumption… The automatic indexation of wages and social benefits is set to continue to contribute to maintaining the purchasing power of households, especially as headline inflation is projected to substantially slow down”. 

‍

Why hasn’t it led to a wage-price spiral? Critics warned that indexation would lead to wage-price spiral, where consumer prices and nominal wages rise simultaneously as firms are forced to put up their prices to maintain profitability, triggering a ‘second-round’ of inflation, further rounds of automatic wage indexation and thus spiralling prices. But analysts from Belgium’s central bank found that “Interestingly, markups appeared to play no role in driving up prices and in fact decreased or even offset the contribution of wages…To keep inflation under control, profits and/or wages should rise at a rate lower than overall price increases, and at least one side must be willing to accept a decline in purchasing power.” As the Belgian wage indexation system requires companies by law to increase wages, companies’ profits were forced to take the hit. “We however found that even in a country with automatic wage indexation, the profit-wage dynamics did not fuel prices increases in 2022.”

• International competition prevented firms from hiking prices. The answer lies in the highly competitive nature of Belgium’s export-led economy - where exports account for one of the highest proportions of GDP in the world. Belgian economist Henri Bogaert explains that “companies exposed to competition, and in particular international competition, cannot pass on this double increase in production costs [wages and energy prices] in their selling price, since the latter is, by definition, constrained by the prices charged by international competitors”. Essentially, export-oriented firms had to keep prices stable to maintain their market share, which cut into profitability but limited the second round effects of inflation. 
• But profits are still high. However, this has not led to a large reduction in profits. 3.95% of the 8.2% inflation in 2022 was still due to ‘unnecessary price hikes’ to finance the profit margins of companies (between €35-40bn over 2021-22), costing the average Belgian €3,200 over the past two years. In fact, a group of Belgian economists wrote to the countries’ business press arguing that 60% of energy intensive firms with the ability to protect their margins (due to their inelastic products) by passing on the increase in costs to their customers should reduce their excess profits by increasing wages further. The Belgian central bank also argued last year that “the impact of energy was ten times greater than the impact of wages on business costs”.

‍

Takeaways for the UK economy. As governments, central banks and businesses in the UK and other countries continue to argue that increasing wages risks stoking inflation further, Belgium’s system of automatic wage indexation is an important lesson for the debate on the risks of wage-price or profit-price spirals. Since the UK already has some limited semi-indexation - of social security payments through benefit uprating, the minimum wage through the Low Pay Commission, and full indexation of the state pension via the ‘triple lock’ - is embedding wage indexation into collective bargaining agreements the logical next step for making households, workers and the economy more resilient to inflation? 

• Increasing UK public sector pay won’t fuel inflation. A timely report from IPPR finds that “Contrary to claims made by the government and others, a real-terms pay rise for public sector workers would not meaningfully increase inflation”. Authors Joseph Evans, Carsten Jung, Henry Parkes and Pranesh Narayanan explain that public sector wages do not feed into pricing decisions of public services, and therefore can’t ‘pass on’ inflation into the rest of the economy by ‘second-round’ effects, and that there is no evidence that public sector pay growth puts upward pressure on private sector wages either, pointing to the Treasury’s own analysis. They calculated that an additional stimulus of £7.2bn in 2023/24 to increase public sector pay by 10.5% would not stoke inflation, especially if funded through taxation, but even if it was financed via borrowing.
• But it could solve many problems in the economy. Even if public sector workers receive a 6% pay rise on average, they will still be £1,400 worse off this year in real terms than before the pandemic. But “a stronger pay settlement would help to address four problems facing the public sector: declining living standards, a workforce crisis, the decreasing quality of services and the reality that pay for the UK’s public sector workers lags behind our international peers” argue the authors. Increasing public sector pay in the NHS in particular is likely to help ease labour shortages there but also in the private sector due to the rise in long-term sickness.‍
• Labour market architecture. Finally, it is worth pointing out that implementing large-scale wage indexation outside of the public sector in the UK would require the creation of new labour market institutions. The UK lacks the tripartite labour market structures that exist in Belgium and many other European countries and which bring government, unions, and employers together. The calls for sectoral collective bargaining from unions, some of which have been adopted in Labour’s New Deal for Working People, would be a step to recreating these institutions and bringing more workers under the umbrella of collective wage agreements.

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

A punitive social security policy introduced by the DWP in 2017 has been in the news this week after Keir Starmer announced that Labour would not repeal the ‘two-child limit’ over the weekend. 

It’s caused a row at all levels of the Labour Party, including in the Shadow Cabinet. New research this week has found strong evidence that the policy fails on its own terms and only serves to increase child poverty.

This week’s New Economy Brief analyses the policy at the heart of the row, and outlines  why many are pushing for its abolition.
‍

Labour row over the two-child limit. Over the weekend Keir Starmer confirmed that a Labour government would keep the two-child limit in Universal Credit and child tax credits, which removes support for third and subsequent children born after April 2017. Senior Labour figures have previously attacked the policy in public and a broad coalition of civil society organisations, such as Save the Children, Barnardos, the NSPCC and others, have signed an open letter to party leaders opposing the policy. This has sparked a fresh row within Labour, as the Leadership is keen to show its commitment to fiscal responsibility, but Labour MPs with constituents in more deprived areas may find the policy difficult to defend.

• History and background. The two-child limit was introduced as part of the Conservative government’s efforts to reduce spending on social security. The two-child limit prevents families from receiving additional income for their third or subsequent children (worth up to £3,235 a year per child in 2023/24), affecting 1.5 million children in April 2023 (10% of all children, this includes all children in families subject to the cap). This is often confused with the benefit cap, which places a cap on the amount of social security paid to households if they have no or low earnings and where they do not have a disqualifying criteria, including having caring responsibilities or a disability. Both policies are ‘highly unusual’ in an international context: only Denmark has an equivalent benefit cap in the EU and only 3 other EU countries have a cap imposed on financial support relative to the amount of children a claimant has (and none of these are as low as two children). 
• Part of a move towards a sanctions-led social security system. The reform of benefit conditionality in the 2010s reflected a shift in welfare policy towards a punitive system that aimed to improve work incentives by sanctioning claimants and reducing their entitlement to means-tested benefits. A 2016 report from the National Audit Office found no evidence that benefit sanctions are an effective way of helping claimants find a job, while “the overall impact of sanctions on wider public spending is unknown.” Peer-reviewed academic research has found many flaws in the economic case for benefit conditionality in the UK welfare system, such as that it is “largely ineffective in facilitating people’s entry into or progression within the paid labour market over time” and that businesses held negative views on conditionality as it led to them “receiving large numbers of unsuitable and unfiltered job applications, with associated negative resource impacts…which undermines their chances of securing employment”. We will explore welfare conditionality more generally in a future edition of New Economy Brief.

‍

Fiscal prudence? The decision not to scrap the policy, as with so many of Labour’s recent policy proposals, has been driven by a desire to demonstrate ‘fiscal prudence’. The argument from the leadership is that the economy that Labour might inherit is in such a dire state that ‘good Labour policies’ need to be sacrificed on the altar of fiscal rectitude, and that any spending commitment needs to be ‘fully funded’. Given the party also has no interest in going into an election talking about tax rises, this in practice means that new policies need to be ‘funded’ by finding savings from other departmental budgets. (We have discussed the debate around fiscal rules elsewhere.)

• Will it happen? A note of scepticism is sounded by the FT’s Stephen Bush, who argues that, while Labour is arguing that they will stick rigidly to Conservative spending plans in their pre-election communications, the chances of them doing so in office are limited. It should be noted that most commentators do not seriously believe that even Jeremy Hunt plans to stick to his own spending plans (which pencil in a large post-election spending squeeze). Likewise, the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee argues that Labour will ‘do’ more than they feel able to promise, and she bets that “Reeves and Starmer will be bolder than anyone now expects”.

‍

Has the policy been working on its own terms? The government’s rationale for implementing the two-child limit is to change work incentives and influence low-income families’ decisions to have children, ensuring that “families in receipt of benefits face the same financial choices as those supporting themselves solely through work”.

• Strong evidence says ‘no’. A timely report from academics studying Benefit Changes and Larger Families found “no evidence of any increases in employment among families affected by the two-child limit” and that “the two-child limit has had only a very small effect on fertility, meaning its main effect is to push families with three or more children further into poverty.“ (Mary Reader and Jonathan Portes provide a good explanation why in an article for the Guardian.) The Child Poverty Action Group also found that most families subject to the two-child limit are already in work. 
• It disproportionately affects minoritised groups. As the policy is targeted at larger families, households from marginalised backgrounds are hardest hit, particularly women and lone parents from ethnic minorities. The cumulative impact of tax and welfare reforms, published by the Equality and Human Rights Commission, found that changes to policy between 2010 and 2017 disproportionately and adversely affected women, ethnic minorities, low-income households and disabled people.
• And risks increased violence against women and girls (VAWG). Women's Budget Group argue that the policy fails to recognise the impact of domestic abuse and can leave survivors trapped with an abusive partner, as claimants are often forced to choose between poverty and personal safety.

‍

Political case for scrapping the two-child limit. Whilst one poll has shown the majority of the public still back the policy, pollster John Curtice suggests that the public has been more supportive of income support for working age people since the Covid-19 pandemic. He thinks that “an opportunity will indeed open up for the [Labour] party to create a narrative that persuades voters that it should be given the task of running an enhanced welfare state in post-Covid-19 Britain.“ The ‘scrounger’ narrative about benefit claimants has also been in decline: the proportion of people disagreeing with the statement that “many people who get social security don’t really deserve any help” in the British Social Attitudes survey has been over 40% since 2018, whilst those who agree has dropped to around 20%. Further, between 40-50% of the public think that the benefit system offers too little support for people on low incomes bringing up children, around double the proportion of those who think that it offers the right amount of support and triple the proportion of those who think it offers too much support.

• The economic case for abolition. It is important to remember that social security spending has an economic, as well as a social benefit. IPPR and the TUC have previously calculated that abolishing the two-child limit, alongside uplifts to the child element of universal credit and the child tax credit, would increase GDP by 0.5% (£14 billion a year). The Child Poverty Action Group argue that “unless the policy is abolished, the number of children affected will reach 3 million, as more children are born under the policy.” Their analysis finds that abolition would cost £1.3 billion and lift 250,000 children out of poverty completely and reduce poverty for a further 850,000 children. The Women’s Budget Group calculated that lifting 250,000 children out of poverty could save £2.3 billion in future ‘societal costs’ - through higher demand for public services, lower earnings potential and higher unemployment - “nearly twice as much as it would cost to remove the policy”. “If there is a cheaper child poverty reduction policy out there, I’d like to know what it is” notes Sam Freedman, podcast host and former senior policy adviser to Michael Gove.
• Communications strategy. The Fabian Society has argued that scrapping the policy altogether would require communications that appeal to fairness between children of different ages and explain the policy on the basis of the parents' circumstances, such as parents who are working, disabled or caring for young children. Their research found that these arguments are “likely to be more effective than saying that children are not to blame for their parents’ choices or that supporting children is an investment in the country’s future”.

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

‍

Spanish inflation is now below 2% - the 3rd lowest in the Eurozone behind Belgium and Luxembourg - and it has been falling faster than in other Eurozone economies. Spain has also been implementing interesting policies to shield their citizens from the rising cost of living, and Spain’s President has claimed these have played a role in driving down inflation.

‍

This week’s New Economy Brief explores the Spanish government's use of ‘unconventional fiscal policies’, their role in reducing inflation, and the lessons that can be learnt for other governments. 

‍

How unconventional fiscal policies can help tackle inflation. There are growing calls for governments to use fiscal policies to tackle current high inflation levels, as opposed to relying on interest rate rises. The IMF’s Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas has argued that ‘unconventional fiscal policies’ have played a significant role tackling inflation in the Eurozone by reducing inflation expectations and preventing inflation ‘passing through’ from areas hit with supply shocks into core inflation in the rest of the economy. 

• E.g. The energy price cap reduced UK inflation. Here in the UK, the energy price cap is an example of such an inflation-busting fiscal intervention, explained here by IPPR’s Carsten Jung 

‍

Spain’s policy interventions on the cost of living. The evidence does suggest that Spain has gone further than many European countries, and certainly further than the UK, in terms of intervening in its economy to hold down the prices of certain essentials and shield citizens from the rising cost of living. Let's have a look at some of these interventions.

• Insulating essentials from the rising cost of living. Economist Phillipp Heimberger has highlighted that the Spanish government was quick to implement price controls in the energy and rental market early on in response to this recent wave of high inflation. A peer-reviewed study by Jorge Uxó explores these interventions: “The authorities have adopted significant measures to reduce inflation, especially in energy (capping gas in the electricity market, limiting the gas price for consumers in the regulated tariff, lowering indirect taxes, or discounts for vulnerable households) and public transport and housing rents. Other measures include transfers to the most affected households and economic sectors to offset the effects of inflation.” (See page 24 for a table detailing each policy implemented until 2022.) 

• Making housing more affordable through rent controls. Since 2022 the Spanish government has prevented landlords increasing their rental prices by more than 2% higher than their previous contract as a measure to contain inflation. This has since been extended until 2024 and a new Housing Law has been introduced. Eduardo González de Molina, policy adviser at Barcelona City Council and affiliate academic at UCL IIPP, explains how the new housing law is informed by the idea of a ‘Right to Housing’ and the Catalan government’s experiments with rent controls. A new peer reviewed paper provides robust empirical evidence showing that the rent controls in Catalonia reduced average rents paid by between 4 and 6% without lowering the supply of housing. (UK Mayors have also been calling for powers to implement rent controls recently.)

‍

How have they impacted inflation? Spain’s President Pedro Sánchez claimed at the end of 2022 that the Spanish government’s use of various policy interventions had been successful in driving down Spain’s inflation rate to the lowest level in the Eurozone (nearly half the average, at the time), and protecting families from the cost of living crisis. 

• ‘Second-round’ effects may be lower. Reducing the ‘second-round effects’ of inflation passing from energy prices, and the other interventions undertaken to hold down prices will definitely have impacted the rate of inflation. Economist Jo Michell notes, “We have to be careful with causation, but the experience of other European countries suggests that unconventional tools are helping to bring down inflation”, also citing the Spanish case

• …but real wages have also taken a very big hit. However, Michell has warned about fully attributing Spain’s low inflation to these progressive policies. Other, more concerning particularities in the Spanish economy are also at play, most notably the fact that Spain suffered the worst erosion of real wages of any large economy in the Eurozone over 2022. This means Spanish workers lost more purchasing power as inflation swallowed any nominal wage increases. This major erosion of real wages could explain a lot of what’s behind Spain’s experience of lower inflation, and why the government is trying to use fiscal policy to offset the impacts of inflation on workers by protecting the cost of essentials. 

• Tackling profit-driven inflation? Spanish trade unions have agreed to lower than inflation level wage increases over a number of years but argued that any ‘social pact’ to tackle inflation should not just be borne by workers, but by companies' profit margins too. Firms are passing on higher costs to consumers via price rises, and protecting, or in some cases increasing, their profit margins. An annual report from the Spanish Economic and Social Council concluded that increases in Spanish corporate gross profits drove 90.7% of domestic inflation in 2022, with wages only contributing to 10.9% of the general price rises. Consequently, the Spanish government is launching a ‘Corporate Profits Observatory’ which will analyse corporate profits to aid collective bargaining processes and ensure a fairer distribution of surplus value between workers, shareholders and senior executives. This could help reduce future bouts of ‘greedflation’ spreading around the economy. 

‍

Lessons for the role of the state in an insecure world. While it remains unclear whether Spain’s unconventional fiscal policies have played a significant role in keeping down its inflation, the Spanish experience does illustrate the potential for the state to play a bigger role in protecting people's disposable incomes by ensuring they can afford the basic essentials. As climate change makes extreme weather events and supply-shocks much more common (e.g the El Niño weather event is expected to re-inflate global commodity prices another couple of percent), inflation is likely to become a more permanent feature of the global economy and a much bigger ongoing problem for government policy. ‘Unconventional fiscal policies’ can prevent second-round effects of inflation moving from supply shocks and becoming embedded into other sectors of the economy, and can redistribute its impacts more fairly. With elections only a week away, we will see whether Spain’s strategy to tackle inflation is also a solid political strategy.

‍

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

‍

Last week, reports emerged that the Government was on standby to put Thames Water into special administration. Despite the initial promise of efficiency and investment following privatisation in 1989, critics argue that Thames Water and other privatised water companies have neglected essential infrastructure upgrades, leading to pollution and mounting corporate debt. With debts reaching approximately £14 billion (roughly 80% of the value of the assets of the business), Thames Water faces the risk of collapse, prompting concerns about the continuity of water and sewerage services for its 15 million customers. While the UK government may step in to manage the company temporarily, many see this as a much needed opportunity to renationalise. 

‍

In this week’s newsletter, we explore the lessons from Thames Water, the problems with water privatisation and what can (and can’t) be done about it.

A lost three decades? The potential collapse of Thames Water isn’t the first time that water privatisation has been deemed a failure from across the political spectrum. Amid droughts last summer, former David Cameron advisor Camilla Cavendish wrote that it was “time to admit that water privatisation has been a failure”. One of those who actually worked on the privatisation of water in 1989, Jonathan Portes, has called the policy an “organised rip-off”. 

• A list of failures. Whatever your politics, it would be difficult to argue that England’s privatised water companies have done a good job in recent years. According to Ofwat, water companies in England and Wales lost more than one trillion litres of water via leaky pipes last year. Since privatisation, water companies have sold off 25 reservoirs (and not replaced them). And of course, who can forget sewage dumping. In the words of the Environment Agency, the environmental performance of England’s nine water companies is “the worst we have seen for years”.

‍

Investment has declined since privatisation. Privatisation has failed to deliver what it was supposedly introduced to achieve: increased investment, argues Professor David Hall of the University of Greenwich. In fact, companies have invested “no net additional shareholder funds (equity) since privatisation” meaning that “money has been taken out, not put in”. 

• Debts are climbing. At the beginning of privatisation, all water companies were debt free. Now, however, they are collectively in debt of nearly £52 billion and a large (and increasing) bill for interest. Analysis by Karol Yearwood in 2018 found that any investment that does occur is almost entirely financed through income from customers, “usually with sufficient cash remaining to cover interest payments”. As Professor David Hall argues, companies are essentially getting further and further into debt simply to pay huge shareholder dividends. 

‍

Who are the shareholders? The privatisation of water has been described as “a cash cow for investment firms and private equity companies”. According to Professor David Hall, English water companies paid shareholders a total of £18.9 billion in dividends from 2010 to 2021. Thames Water alone has paid out a total of £7.2 billion in dividends since privatisation. But who are the shareholders receiving these payouts while failings continue? Well, the answer to this question has been described as “as murky as the water in the river”.

• Overseas investors. Since 2006, Thames Water “has been owned by a consortium of institutional investors, including funds from China and Abu Dhabi”. Infamously, it was managed by the Australian Macquarie Capital Funds, notorious for its “focus on profits”. However, Macquarie sold its shares in 2017, leaving Thames Water “with an extra £2bn debt burden”. Now, the largest share (26%) of Thames Water belongs to Kuwaiti and Canadian investors, represented by the Kemble Water Holdings holding company. This is where it gets murky - there are about seven other intermediary companies between Kemble and Thames Water customers (helpful diagram here). England is unusual in having all of its water companies in private ownership, but most of the beneficiaries of this system are based overseas. Research by the Guardian found that 72% of English water is owned by offshore investors which include “private and state-owned international funds, banks, multinationals and billionaires headquartered outside the UK”. 
• “An experiment in complex financial engineering”. The huge debts we see at Thames Water and other companies may in fact exist by design, not by accident. England has been “at the forefront” of the ‘financialisation’ of infrastructure in which “diverse physical structures have been transformed into financial assets”. According to Kate Bayliss, this can be traced back to the 2000s when “a new kind of financial investor began to dominate the [water] sector”. By 2021, nine out of 15 English water and sewage companies were owned by “special purpose companies”. These investors, made up of private equity funds, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, have been able to generate significant shareholder returns by “hiking up debts”, Bayliss argues. Increased debt has been used to refinance water companies “so that investors could repay themselves part of the original cost of buying the water utility”, she explains. However, a “perfect storm” of inflation, high interest rates and pressure to improve performance mean that the high levels of debt we see now, as in the case of Thames Water, are becoming increasingly unsustainable.

‍

So, what now? It is possible that the shareholders of Thames Water could bail out the company. But failing that, the government will have to step in in some way. One option is that Thames Water will be put into special administration, a power outlined in the Water Industry Act 1991 which can be used when a private company is on the brink of collapse. This would enable the company to carry out its functions and provide a public service until either being transferred to another private company (in the case of Bulb in 2022) or into public ownership. 

• Renationalisation? Many view the current situation with Thames Water and the apparent failure of privatisation more generally as an obvious case for renationalisation. Of course, public ownership would eliminate profit motives and dividend obligations. However, this isn’t necessarily so straightforward. Opponents of renationalisation argue that taking Thames Water into public ownership would require transferring corporate debt onto the government's balance sheet, which some would argue is unfair for taxpayers to foot the bill and pay the debts incurred under poor management. Additionally, the administration process typically involves asset sales to repay debts, but in the case of a water company, the integrated and complex infrastructure makes breaking up assets impractical. Buying the assets from the shareholders would entail an enormous cost, necessitating adequate compensation for existing shareholders, including pension funds.
• Reducing the costs to the Treasury. Think tank Common Wealth argues that the answer to this problem lies in the 1991 Water Industry Act. Under the act, they argue that the government could trigger special administration proceedings and use these to facilitate the transfer to public ownership: “the special administration procedure enables secured debts to creditors to be reduced, subordinated, or removed, where they would not be “consistent with the purposes of the special administration order”. Such an order’s purposes include ensuring a water company’s “functions... may be properly carried out” such as stopping leaks or pollution. This will reduce or eliminate the cost of transfer to public ownership.”
• Regional ownership. Nationalisation does not have to mean direct ownership by central government. All three failing water companies (Southern Water, South East Water and Thames Water) could be taken into special administration but then, instead of being renationalised, could be “transferred into public ownership under the councils in the region as the first regional publicly owned water company”. 
• Enforcement. The Water Industry Act 1991 also enables ministers and regulators to issue enforcement orders to control the company’s behaviour. They could order the company to pay down debts, restructure, reduce payouts or keep bills down. Critics of this approach argue that this is essentially renationalisation but without the same level of accountability. 
• Let it go bust. Some have suggested that the government could let Thames Water go bust and take it back into public ownership then. However, this would have profound implications for customers and as the Guardian’s Environment Correspondent Sandra Laville explains, is “simply… not allowed”. 
• The Welsh model. Academics Robert Branston and Phil Tomlinson propose that Thames Water follows the “unusual” example set in Wales. “Welsh Water has a unique corporate structure, with no shareholders and is run solely for the benefit of its customers. It is commercially run, with professional managers held to account by 62 independent trustees. While not perfect, its performance in recent years compares favourably with that of the other privatised water companies”, Branston and Tomlinson argue. They admit that creating such an organisation “would not be easy” but does have a precedent in the case of Network Rail “which was created when its commercial predecessor Railtrack went bust”. Railtrack’s debts were subsumed into Network Rail and underwritten by the government. Branston and Tomlinson explain that “while it is true that these public-interest companies are funded by debt, a government debt guarantee helps keep the costs of servicing this debt down (while costing the government very little)”.
• Regulation and social purpose. Purposeful Company co-chair Will Hutton argues that through good regulation, water companies like Thames Water can deliver social purpose while remaining in the private sector. “The sunshine of accountability” could ensure that Thames Water gets serious about its environmental responsibilities, invests properly and banishes “opaque ownership structures”, says Hutton.

‍

Lessons from Thames Water. You’d be hard pressed to find anyone who could enthusiastically defend the record of water privatisation over the last 34 years. As the climate crisis worsens and debt becomes more expensive, reforming the water sector so that investment is put before shareholders has never been more urgent. The legacy of years of privatisation can be difficult to unravel, with high debts and the need to make up for historic deficits in infrastructure investment both providing significant barriers to action.

• Funding the future. Ultimately the question of how necessary future infrastructure upgrades will be financed is the long term challenge facing the sector. Common Wealth argues that if the industry remains in private hands, even with additional stakeholder responsibilities, bills will rise significantly. This is because such capital demands a return, and this return can only be extracted from consumers. In contrast they argue that the public sector can borrow for upgrades at lower rates, making public ownership “a cheaper and more strategic mechanism to fund the water industry’s future”.
• Voice and value. But who gets a say in the industry's future is also a vital question. For example newly renationalised water companies could be structured so that consumers, workers and other stakeholders are represented on the board as with the newly remunicipalised Eau de Paris in France (where bills fell by 8%). This would end the domination of shareholder interests, which has arguably led to the current mess in the industry.

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

‍

The mortgage crisis has dominated the UK news cycle for the last week, but the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and mortgages is not always well understood. 

‍

In this week’s newsletter we look at the impact of rising rates on mortgages, the political fallout, the solutions being proposed by the main parties and some progressive alternatives, before considering what this all means for the debate about how to tackle inflation.

‍

Mortgage misery. Last week’s decision by the Bank of England to hike interest rates by 50bps to 5%, the highest since the 2008 financial crash, has sparked a wave of panic in Westminster over what Money Saving Expert Martin Lewis has dubbed the ‘mortgage time-bomb’. It isn’t hard to see why. Mortgage holders who are on tracker products or whose fixed terms are coming to an end face significant increases of hundreds of pounds a month to their interest payments. These increases will intensify the cost of living crisis for millions, and put many families at risk of defaulting on their mortgage.

• A feature, not a bug. The intensification of the cost of living crisis is not a side-effect of the Bank’s actions, it is the intended consequence. Rate-setters continue to argue that high core inflation can only be tackled by removing excess demand from an economy which is ‘running too hot’. According to the theory, there are a number of ways that raising rates reduce inflation such as by encouraging saving, but a core plank of the theory is that rising mortgage costs force homeowners to cut back on other spending, thereby reducing inflationary pressures in the economy. 
• Delayed transmission. The Bank has taken action in response to stubbornly high inflation numbers which have seemed immune to previous interest rate hikes. Part of the reason for this is the structure of the mortgage market itself. Firstly, a large amount of (mainly older) homeowners own their homes outright and do not have mortgages, meaning that they are unaffected by changes to the base rate. (An important statistic comes via the FT’s Sarah O’Connor: in every region of England and Wales bar London, there are more homes owned outright than those owned with mortgages or rented). Of those that do have mortgages, only a small number are on ‘tracker’ products which are sensitive to changes in the base rate set by the Bank of England. The vast majority are on fixed rates deals which typically last between two and five years. Those homeowners unlucky enough to be on trackers or coming to the end of their fixed rates are seeing steep rises to their monthly repayments, but a significant amount of the mortgage pain is yet to be felt as fixed rates insulate many people from rate rises for a time.
• The risk of overshoot. The fact that much of the monetary tightening has yet to work its way through the system is one of the reasons that many have criticised the decision to continue hiking rates, arguing that it risks going too far and causing unnecessary damage and instability. Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted against raising interest rates for this reason, and the Bank’s decision has heightened fears of a recession (some commentators have been explicit in their belief that the Bank should be trying to cause a recession in order to tackle inflation). Others have argued that because inflation is being largely caused by supply issues (including the war in Ukraine, bad harvests relating to climate change, and Brexit trade barriers) and corporate profits, efforts to crush inflation by suppressing demand will be ineffective.

‍

Political fallout. The immediate political fallout has been three-fold. First, Labour have seized on the opportunity to brand the crisis as a ‘Tory mortgage penalty’, sensitive to the fact that middle-aged families with mortgages are exactly the demographic of people that the party hopes to win back from the Conservatives at the next general election. YouGov’s Patrick English has mapped the mortgage crisis and found a significant overlap with the most marginal constituencies in the country, while in the Times, Emma Duncan argues that this could spell the end for Conservative hopes in Barratt Britain (a demographic of northern homeowners largely thought to be responsible for Conservative victories in the ‘Red Wall’). Also sensitive to this fact are Conservative backbenchers in marginal seats who have been calling on the government to do something, anything, to alleviate the pain their constituents are feeling. And remember, the structure of the mortgage market means that the vast majority of homeowners have not yet felt the effects of monetary tightening on the mortgage payments yet, meaning that as millions of fixed rate deals expire between now and a likely general election next year, the political pain of this crisis is only going to intensify.

• Just blame the Bank. Thirdly, the Bank of England has come in for (occasionally contradictory) criticism from the Conservative backbenches, with the Bank being simultaneously accused of having lost control of inflation by being too slow to raise rates, and having caused the mortgage crisis by raising rates too quickly - with the central message being that angry voters should blame Andrew Bailey for their rising mortgage bills, rather than Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt. Some have even gone as far as to question the independence of the Bank of England (although others would argue that the ability to blame the Bank for rising rates is one of the key political motivations for keeping the Bank independent of government).
• It’s hurting, but it’s not working. There are two unfortunate realities for MPs pushing this line however. The first is that the government has inextricably linked itself to the mortgage crisis by pledging to halve inflation this year (a pledge which now looks set to be missed). The second is that, as Jeremy Hunt has set out, the government has absolutely no intention of providing direct support to mortgage holders, arguing that doing so would defeat the object of interest rate rises and therefore prolong the inflation crisis. The logic of the government’s argument about inflation has always been that the cost of living crisis needs to be intensified for many families in order to re-anchor price expectations. It has so far largely avoided making this argument explicitly, and it appears that many of its own MPs are simply unwilling to tell their voters that the pain they are feeling is not just an unfortunate side effect of the fight against inflation - it is the explicit mechanism by which the Bank and the government intend to meet the pledge. In short, a pledge which was intended to ensure the government was rewarded for falling inflation while avoiding the blame for rising interest rates, now looks set to result in the government both suffering the embarrassment of missing its pledge while also becoming the focus for irate mortgage-holders.

‍

Help for homeowners? Caught between the voters and the pledge on inflation, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has attempted to walk a difficult line between being seen to respond to the crisis whilst not undermining the government’s central argument on inflation. The result is a ‘mortgage charter’ voluntarily agreed with some of the UK’s main mortgage lenders. The deal involves lenders offering various forms of temporary relief such as short-term switches to interest-only repayments, as well as a longer period between missed payments and forcible home repossession.

• Labour attack. This plan is not enough for Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves who has labelled it as a “bad cover version” of Labour’s own plan. The central difference is that Labour would force lenders into offering these forms of relief, as opposed to a voluntary charter.
• The conservative debate on intervention. The package also falls short of the expectations of MPs on Hunt’s own side of the House who are scrambling for solutions, from Cabinet minister Michael Gove suggesting 25 year fixed rate mortgages to Trussite backbenchers Jonathan Gullis and Jake Berry calling for the reintroduction of mortgage tax relief (a scheme introduced by Thatcher’s government in 1983 and later scrapped by Gordon Brown). The tax break is known as a mortgage interest relief at source (Miras), allowing borrowers to claim tax relief for interest payments on their mortgage. However, as the FT’s Stephen Bush points out, this would both cost a lot of money and defeat the purpose of rate rises, making this an unpopular suggestion among the majority Conservative MPs. As Bush highlights, this speaks to a significant ongoing problem for the Conservatives - how to stick to their pledges while assuring vulnerable marginal constituents that they may actually be able to alleviate the cost of living crisis.
• Equity stakes for mortgage relief. An alternative idea comes via a Joseph Rowntree Foundation paper earlier in the year by Toby Lloyd, Rose Grayston and Neal Hudson. They proposed that the government should “provide an exit route” for highly leveraged and low-income homeowners by establishing a new version of the Mortgage Rescue Scheme launched in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, which would fund social landlords to buy the homes of mortgaged homeowners in distress: “Beneficiaries would see their mortgage debts cancelled by the purchasing social landlord with any negative equity gap funded by the Government, but, as social renters, they would not retain any equity". Having the government take public equity stakes socialises the risk of financial crisis and creates a new kind of tenure: co-ownership between the state and households, where the government receives a stake or income flow.
• ‍Rent controls. Of course, mortgage holders aren’t the only ones feeling the squeeze. A paper for the US Federal Reserve found that higher interest rates also increase housing rents, despite reducing house prices. Renters tend to pay around 30% of their income on rents, much higher than the predictions that mortgage holders will have to pay over 20% of their income as the current crisis unfolds, and many mortgage holders have benefited from the era of ultra low interest rates and rising house prices. In this context, Mayors such as Sadiq Khan and Marvin Rees are calling for powers to implement rent controls alongside any government support for mortgages. 

‍

Alternative strategies for controlling inflation. Ultimately, the mortgage-timebomb is caused by a combination of high levels of housing debt, and a policy choice of trying to control inflation primarily through interest rate rises. The result is a very big squeeze on one particular cohort of homeowners, which may prove to be politically unsustainable (and economically ineffective).  This also illustrates what UCL IIPP economist Josh Ryan-Collins calls ‘the paradox of contemporary monetary policy’: the tension between the Bank of England’s mandate to maintain both price stability and financial stability. As many commentators are starting to note, monetary tightening is far from the only tool for tackling inflation, and excessive reliance on it leads to political problems because the distribution of the pain is felt so unevenly. So what are the alternatives?

• Taxing those who can afford it. It may be political heresy in some quarters to suggest that taxes could rise, but this is one of the options available to the government to cool demand in a way that avoids penalising those worst affected by the cost of living crisis. Writing in the FT, former MPC member Adam Person suggests “taxes on high income workers, and capital gains, as well as on property”. A paper from IPPR demonstrated how the government can use fiscal policy to stabilise the UK macroeconomy, and, in order to tame inflation, “taxes will need to play a larger role, taking demand out of the economy”.
• Stopping ‘Greedflation’. Politico’s Esther Webber has suggested that “One alternative option would be to go after “greedflation”, where profits outpace costs among suppliers of goods and services, by asking the competition regulator to investigate the scope of the practice. Last year, IPPR’s Carsten Jung and Common Wealth’s Chris Hayes proposed that the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), launch “pre-emptive investigations into the potential for excess profits in the most concentrated sectors in the UK economy.” (Pressure is also building to tackle corporate profit-driven inflation in the Eurozone…from the IMF, of all places.)  ‍
• Tackling profiteering in the banking sector. John McDonnell argues that UK banks have been profiteering from the rise in interest rates, citing analysis by Unite the Union that UK banks made an extra £7bn by refusing to pass on higher interest rates to savers. It is this kind of profiteering that has led some to call for excess profit taxes on the banking sector. McDonnell says that banks should "accept that mortgagees are struggling to pay and cut their interest rates, covering the cost from their profits. But if the banks are not willing to act, the government should intervene and levy an excess profits tax on the sector." He calls for a windfall tax of 15% on the UK's big 5 banks to fund a mortgage interest relief scheme of £5.5bn .

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

‍

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is set to raise interest rates again tomorrow. 

‍

This risks limiting private sector investment and pose a political problem for a government wanting to ‘ramp up’ capital investment to grow the green economy.

‍

But what if the Bank had a lower interest rate for green projects (as they do in Japan)? Read on for an explanation of how green credit guidance - a policy solution championed by the Monetary Policy Committee’s newest member, Megan Greene - can keep finance flowing towards net zero.

‍

Raising interest rates harms the economy in various ways…Markets are pricing in further interest rate hikes before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting tomorrow, as the UK’s persistently high inflation rate is expected to stay higher than comparable economies, for much longer than expected. Media commentary is focusing on the negative impact of higher interest rates on people trying to repay their mortgages and on the higher costs of government borrowing, but less attention is being paid to another consequence of rising interest rates; the impact on business investment. How will the UK meet its legally-binding Net Zero targets, when financing the investments needed for the green transition are becoming more expensive?

• …but green investment will particularly suffer.  Achieving an environmentally sustainable and Net Zero economy requires a significant increase in investment in green technologies and sectors. Unfortunately, the UK has an absolutely dire recent record on investment, both public and private. As new research from the Institute for Public Policy Research explains, the UK is at the bottom of the G7 league table for business investment. If the UK had invested at G7 average levels from 2006-2021, an extra £562.7 billion in public and private money would have been invested in our economy. Higher interest rates will be particularly detrimental for investments in the green transition, given that those projects, while generating operational savings over a longer term, typically have high upfront capital costs.
• Is monetary tightening self-defeating? Higher interest rates will be particularly detrimental for investments in the green transition, given that those projects, while generating operational savings over a longer term, typically have high upfront capital costs. The irony of this is that the Bank’s aims of price stability are being further hindered by its own blunt tool of monetary tightening. Green investment can reduce the exposure of the UK economy to future bouts of ‘fossilflation’ - inflation that was primarily caused by fossil fuel-related energy price shocks - e.g. by providing more lending for building retrofits and clean energy projects. Further, green investments will also protect longer term financial stability from climate-related risks, but it is green investment that will suffer the most from higher interest rates.
• How will the government fill the green finance gap? The UK government’s Net Zero Strategy outlines their plan to meet their legal emission reduction targets. It estimates that additional capital investment must grow to “an average of £50-60bn per year through the late 2020s and 2030s”, which the Climate Change Committee (CCC) assesses is “an ambitious, credible path for UK decarbonisation…in line with the Paris agreement”. (Keep an eye out for the CCC’s latest analysis of the government’s progress on Net Zero report, due out next week...watch this space!). Higher borrowing costs then pose a political problem for the Conservatives and Labour Party, both of which have emphasised the importance of ramping up private sector finance to stimulate green investment.

‍

Is green credit guidance the answer? One proposal for making green investments cheaper is to have a lower interest rate for borrowing for low-carbon projects. The policy has been championed by the newest member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Megan Greene. This ‘dual interest policy’ is part of a wider framework called ‘green credit guidance’. 

• How it works. Monetary policy can ‘shield’ green investments from interest rate hikes by offering banks refinancing at preferential rates for financing clean investments in the real economy. Interestingly, offering lower costs of credit played an important role in supporting economic and industrial policy during the 1945 – 1973 ​‘golden age’ in the West, and more recently in aiding the rapid development of East Asian countries. 
• The experience of other countries. Green Central Banking’s David Clarke has covered how the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have been “providing zero-interest financing to lenders supporting action to address climate change” since early 2022. The BoJ’s governor justified taking action on climate by arguing that doing so falls within the BoJ’s price stability and financial stability mandates. Christine Lagarde has also put green credit guidance as one of her top priorities for her presidency of the European Central Bank.

‍

Implementing a dual interest rate policy in the Bank of England. The New Economics Foundation’s (NEF) Frank van Lerven and Lukasz Krebel have proposed that the UK could adopt such a scheme by repurposing the Bank of England’s Term Funding Scheme (TFS) - which currently providers cheaper credit to businesses and households - to provide cheaper credit to banks to lend for sustainable investments. This would keep interest rates lower for green investments. (The question of which investments qualify for the lower interest rate, and how to determine if they are actually sustainable, will be explored in a future Digest.)

• How it works. The authors illustrate how the policy would work in practice with accelerating investment in building retrofits: “The interest rates for the TFS green credit lines to banks could be set at 0%, or in all cases below the Bank rate, to ensure lower costs of green credit. The refinancing rate could be made negative (echoing the European Central Bank (ECB) on the condition that commercial lenders pass on a minimum predefined rate discount to retrofit borrowers – for example, by offering loans to households and businesses at 0% interest.” (Watch their video explainer.)

‍

A holistic strategy for green finance and decarbonisation. Whilst more interventionist credit policies would be particularly useful for political parties looking to stimulate private finance as a way to fill the green investment gap in the UK and ‘ramp up’ spending on Net Zero without using public money, economists have warned that “fiscal policy must lead the way on the green transition” and green credit guidance should be not be seen as a ‘silver bullet’, but part of a holistic strategy of discouraging ‘dirty’ investments as well as ramping up both public and private green finance. 

• The importance of public investment,… The scale of the funding gap in addressing the environmental emergency has led many to suggest that private finance alone is not enough, and that public finance is particularly important. Indeed, public investment can play a crucial role by directly investing in critical projects that the private sector is reluctant to support, as well as those that are socially important but do not generate high returns. Furthermore, many economists have argued that direct public investment can help to ‘crowd in’ private investment into strategically vital areas. A principally market-coordinated transition that is overly reliant on private finance also risks normalising extractive behaviours in the green economy, such as profiteering and greenwashing. (Read our previous Digest explaining the risks of relying on private finance to decarbonise the economy.) Common Wealth’s Melanie Brusseler explains that publicly-led coordination is necessary for a timely and effective transition. She argues that “Market coordination—premised on private investment and profitability—cannot effectively deliver this in line with climate targets and economic functioning” and that “building institutions to coordinate the transition should be Labour's first term focus”. NEF have argued that the UK’s state-owned financial institutions (such as the British Business Bank, UK export finance and the CDC group) should also be given Net Zero mandates to redirect their ~£7bn annual investments and scale them up to help grow the green economy.
• …industrial strategy,... The experience of green credit guidance policy in France and Japan showed that it worked best when the state made clear policy directions through a solid industrial strategy, giving the private sector more certainty to make the necessary investments. Economists Katie Kedward, Josh Ryan-Collins and Daniela Gabor explain how an ‘allocative green credit policy’ regime can be organised around green industrial policy objectives and democratically agreed green ‘missions’. 
• …and discouraging dirty investment. Penalising loans that promote high carbon activity and phasing out investments in fossil fuels will also be important for meeting the UK’s climate targets. A key part of the green finance equation is ending government support for fossil fuels, e.g. through tax relief for oil producers in the North Sea. This week, the Labour Party released a briefing outlining how it plans to ‘make Britain a clean energy superpower’, including a pledge to ban future licences for oil and gas exploration. 

Good morning from New Economy Brief. 

This morning, The Crown Estate, one of the UK's largest landowners, releases its annual report. Who owns land and how they use it is at the heart of some of the most pressing policy issues of our time. Any serious attempt to improve problems like the housing crisis, food shortages, climate change and inequality require changes to how land is used. Land ownership is a key issue which often goes underexplored. This week, we take a deep dive into the question of who actually owns land in the UK, the economic and political consequences of this, and what can be done about it.

Who owns land? The answer to this question - at least in a UK setting - has been described as “one of the most closely-guarded secrets in the thousand-year-old history of this country”. The Who Owns England? project, run by Guy Shrubsole and Anna Powell-Smith, attempts to solve this very mystery. Through the use of public maps and data released through the Freedom of Information Act, it finds that half of England is owned by less than 1% of the population. The aristocracy and gentry alone own 30%. That’s significantly more than the amount of English land owned by the public sector, homeowners, conservation charities, the Royal Family and the Church of England put together (a total of 17.4%).  After the aristocracy and gentry, corporations are the second largest landowning group, with an 18% share of English land. Oligarchs and City bankers own 17%. Crown estates and the royal family own considerably less than these groups, however their land share of 1.4% still results in increasingly large revenues for royal family members. For example, King Charles and the late Queen Elizabeth II have received total payments equivalent to more than £1 billion from the duchies of Lancaster and Cornwall. The profits made from the farmland, hotels, medieval castles, offices, shops and real estate owned by the royal family have increased substantially since the beginning of the late Queen’s reign. 

• Hidden landowners. 17% of land in England and Wales remains undeclared at the Land Registry. Someone owns it - we just don’t know who. There is a strong likelihood that the owners of this undeclared land are members of the aristocracy and gentry, meaning that their combined share of the country may in fact be far higher than 30%. Because aristocratic estates remain in families for centuries, they are not generally sold on the open market, and will not have needed to be recorded with the Land Registry. According to Anna Powell-Smith, the Land Registry has committed to comprehensive registration by 2030, though it is unclear how this will be achieved. Powell-Smith and Shrubsole propose a government requirement to make all land registered, with details of its beneficial owner, before it can receive farm subsidies. Given the amount of land used for farming, it is hoped that this would incentivise owners to register the land and help solve the mystery of England’s undeclared land.
• And why does this matter? The question of “who owns land?” matters because, as Shrubsole and Powell-Smith explain, “who owns land gets to choose how it’s used… Where we build our homes, how we grow our food, how we protect ourselves from flooding, how much space we set aside for wildlife”. As the connected crises of climate, nature and food continue, what we do with our land takes on an even greater significance. Often, important natural resources are “mismanaged” by those who own the land, argues Guy Shrubsole. Peat soil, for example, is often set fire to for grouse shooting, releasing 11 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. About one million acres of peat is owned by just 124 individuals and organisations. 

Politics, policies and rentierism. One of the most direct consequences of concentrated land ownership in the UK is housing. Landowners can often decide where homes are built and can earn rents from them. Home ownership should in theory allow people to achieve a degree of financial independence and security. It’s no wonder then, that the promise of home ownership plays a central role in British politics. It is often accepted (though increasingly questioned) that home owners generally vote Conservative. Meanwhile, the Labour Party says it wants to be the party of home ownership. Of course, this wasn’t always the case. Shifts in fiscal policy during the second half of the twentieth century saw the state’s involvement in housing move from the provision of social housing to the promotion and subsidisation of home ownership. While social housing still exists, provision remains 25% less than in 1979. Home ownership is promoted as the ultimate aspiration, offering security and longevity to voters. Policies like Right to Buy provide the hope of financial independence - an opportunity to have an economic stake in a political system in which state provision of security is not guaranteed. 

• But… The irony of home ownership politics is that, without significant structural intervention in the housing market on both demand and supply-sides (which would require a huge shift in the fiscal consensus towards much higher government spending), the home ownership dream becomes less and less accessible the more it is promoted. Instead of directly providing affordable housing, governments increasingly intervene on the demand side, “supporting would-be homeowners to buy in the private market”, hoping (in vain) that the private sector will pick up the supply-side slack and get building. But, as economist Josh Ryan-Collins explains, this leads to a “damaging feedback cycle” between finance and housing. Instead of promoting security and independence for ordinary people, the market becomes increasingly inaccessible and profitable only for a small number of landowners and property owners. As the role of banks shifts towards mortgage lending rather than capital investment, “credit creation for the purchase of existing property and land increases property prices without stimulating investment or wages”. As a result, household spending shrinks and debt rises. In turn, the demand for mortgage debt rises too, “generating a positive feedback cycle where increasing mortgage credit effectively creates its own supply”, says Ryan-Collins. Houses become more unaffordable, and land more concentrated in the hands of a few. 
• Rentierism and the leasehold system. The vicious cycle of the financial system and housing contributes to what is often referred to as ‘rentier capitalism’. This describes the system in which concentrated property ownership allows owners to extract increasingly high rents. Those paying the rents are then prevented from gaining wealth of their own due to extortionate property prices and the fact that large portions of their disposable income is spent on paying such rents. Though this often affects those literally paying rent, i.e. in the private rented sector, archaic laws mean that even homeowners can be on the sharp end of such rent extraction. The “feudal” leasehold system (Michael Goves’ words, not ours) is yet another thorn in the side of politicians who want to be able to promote home ownership as a means to achieving security. However, the Government announced that it is scrapping plans to abolish the leasehold system in England just last month. 

‍So what do we do about it? 

• Making homes available. Building more affordable homes is of course one solution that would redistribute property ownership to some degree. However, policies that more generally shift the balance of power away from landlords could have a similar effect. Rent regulations, stronger renters rights and high taxes on second homes are all policies which may lead to many more houses ending up on the market without new ones even being built. 
• Taxation. One proposal which attempts to address rentierism incrementally is that of a land value tax. The FT’s Martin Wolf has described the policy as “economically efficient and morally just”. The idea is that it is unjust for landowners or homeowners to increase their wealth (or potential wealth) because their assets have become more valuable through no effort on their own part. Someone living in a house for several decades may see the value of it increase massively having made zero renovations because a train station has been built nearby, for example. Without attempts to redistribute this “unearned” wealth, land ownership and the potential to earn economic rents becomes further consolidated. Economist John Muellbauer has proposed a Green Land Value Tax in which those eligible to pay the tax would receive discounts for making green developments to their homes. Campaigns like Fairer Share also propose replacing council tax with a proportional property tax in which property owners would pay a simple flat rate of 0.48% on the value of properties. Fairer Share’s interactive map demonstrates how this would redistribute wealth from the South East to the rest of the UK. 
• Community ownership. Taxing those who benefit from land ownership is one method. Another is to find a more equitable distribution of land in the first place. A transition towards community ownership, for example via Community Land Trusts and a Community Right to Buy, has been proposed by both left and right in recent years. In 2003, Scotland introduced a Community Right to Buy in which communities are given first refusal when local land goes up for sale. Campaigners argue that this should be replicated elsewhere in the UK. 
• Compulsory Purchase Orders. One of the most direct ways to redistribute land is not only to allow communities the right to purchase land when it is voluntarily up for sale, but to actively pursue it. Compulsory Purchase orders would grant public authorities the power to require land that has been left vacant or derelict for a defined period to be sold at public auction, offering community groups the right of first refusal. Just last month, the Labour Party announced that it would introduce a new law which would give ​​local development authorities in England the power to buy up land via compulsory purchase orders at a fraction of its potential cost if they want to build on it.

‍Now what? The political incentive to offer security feels increasingly important. Recent geopolitical events have turned the issue of renewable energy into one of economic security. The cost of living crisis too has shone a light on just how many of us are financially insecure. The Labour Party clearly sees the need to appeal to the nation’s desire for security with its new language of ‘Securonomics’. Of course, there are plenty of examples of where security can be offered without the promise of home ownership. In theory, social housing and social security can provide this. But no matter what kind of homes people live in, who owns land will always be politically significant. The concentration of land ownership has implications for what we eat, our natural environment, our climate and whether more homes can even be built in the first place. Inequality in land ownership sits at the intersection of so many challenges we face. We have set out above how policies do exist to shift away from the current imbalance, whether the political will to do so exists is another question.

Good morning from New Economy Brief. 

As the Covid-19 Inquiry dominates the headlines, the TUC conducts its own investigation into the UK’s Covid response and preparedness. But rather than dodgy WhatsApps, this new report explores how austerity left the country “hugely unprepared” for the pandemic across four key pillars: 

• Safe staffing levels in public services
• Public service capacity and resources
• A strong safety net through the social security system
• Robust health and safety protections at work

We take a look at each of these pillars and how greater economic resilience could mitigate future crises. 

‍

Safe staffing levels in public services. The report finds that “multiple years of pay caps and pay freezes” left both health and social care “dangerously understaffed” during the pandemic due to low recruitment and increased staff turnover. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of nurses per capita in the UK grew by less than one per cent compared to the OECD average of 10 per cent. The report states that in the months before the pandemic, the average NHS worker was earning £3,000 less in real terms than in 2010 and that in social care, the turnover rate for staff in England increased from 22 per cent in 2012/13 to 31.8 per cent in 2019/20.

• Safe staffing and the law. The Royal College of Nursing is campaigning for legislation to guarantee nurse staffing levels in England across all sectors and settings as currently there is no such law in England. Wales implemented the first safe staffing levels law for nurses (The Nurse Staffing Levels (Wales) Act 2016), requiring health boards to provide sufficient nursing staff “so that all patients can receive sensitive care”. However, Section 25B only covers certain healthcare areas, with the RCN Wales continuing to to campaign for the extension of Section 25B to new settings, particularly mental health inpatient wards, community nursing, and care homes. Scotland implemented the first UK safe staffing law covering both health and social care (Health and Care (Staffing) (Scotland) Act 2019). However, implementation was delayed due to the pandemic with Act due to come into force in 2024. 

Public service capacity and resources. In 2020, spending per capita on transport, housing, childcare, schools, higher education, police, fire services and environmental protection was lower than in 2010. The TUC argues that these limited public services had a negative impact on “civil contingencies” and children’s education during the pandemic. 

• Children’s social care. One particular area where underfunding arguably led directly to lack of support for vulnerable people during the pandemic was children’s social care. Ofsted found that the pandemic “exacerbated existing challenges” such as delays in the family justice system and “existing staffing issues”. The number of council-employed social workers in 2021 was 1.5% lower than in 2020, and the number of social work jobs in local authorities fell from 17,455 to 17,280 over the same period. BASW, the union representing social workers, has highlighted the negative “consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on funding, on services and on wellbeing” but have highlighted that behind this, there was a “backdrop of long-term underfunding of social services”. Care leavers, who normally should be supported by local authority teams in finding education and employment, are entering the workforce and education at lower rates than pre-pandemic. 

A strong safety net through the social security system. Benefit cuts largely made between 2010 and 2016 damaged the social security safety net and caused increases in poverty levels, argues the TUC. It highlights that “living in poverty was associated with greater risks of exposure to Covid-19, and greater levels of vulnerability to more serious health consequences from being ill with Covid”.

• Systemic change. The pandemic exposed a vast number of people to job insecurity who may not have had previous experience of the social security system. With the backdrop of a weakened social security system following austerity policies, the government was forced to introduce a number of quick measures to guarantee people’s incomes such as an uplift in Universal Credit and the furlough scheme. Social Policy academic Ruth Patrick critiqued these measures as failing to implement “systemic” or “enduring” reforms which could provide much-needed resilience in the face of future crises. The New Economics Foundation suggests that a Living Income scheme, guaranteeing a minimum income level beneath which nobody can fall, could provide a more robust social security system. The good news for proponents of such systemic change is that attitudes to social security seem to have changed because of the pandemic. A peer-reviewed study in 2021 found that the pandemic had led to an increase in support for Universal Basic Income both in the US and UK.

Robust health and safety protections at work. Health and safety took on a new meaning during the pandemic amid the presence of such a contagious and in some cases deadly disease. But according to the TUC, “the enforcement of rules to keep workers safe at work was compromised by cuts that decimated public health and workplace safety regulator” which particularly affected those who couldn’t work from home. Staffing numbers at the Health and Safety Executive, for example, have been cut by 35% since 2010, and the number of workplaces investigated by a safety inspector fell by 70% from 2010 to 2020. To avoid such issues in the future, the TUC proposes “long-term, adequate funding of health and safety regulators”, “a realignment of health and safety regulation is needed to ensure independence” and better “regulatory clarity”, ensuring “greater level of awareness among employers, the public and stakeholders.”

Austerity on trial. The wider significance of highlighting the relationship between austerity policies and Covid is twofold. First, the Covid response highlighted cracks in state capacity that normally go under-analysed, whether that is lab capacity, sick pay levels, or number of health and safety inspectors. These areas were often the target of cuts precisely because they got little attention and therefore less public backlash. This inquiry is an important opportunity to shine a light on these decisions, and provides an important example of the link between public spending, state capacity, and economic resilience. Perhaps the more important reason is more forward-looking. State capacity in the UK is likely to be stretched in similar ways again in the near future, whether by other pandemics, by the effects of climate breakdown, or other unforeseen events. At the same time, the government has pencilled in yet another round of public spending squeezes in the middle of the decade in order to comply with their fiscal rules. With UK public spending levels back at the centre of national debate, this inquiry’s verdict could have a significant impact on wider attitudes towards public spending.

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

‍

With Rachel Reeves setting out her economic philosophy in a big speech in Washington last week, we take a deep dive into the origin and substance of Labour’s emerging economic policy.

‍

Read on for our explanation of ‘Securonomics’, where it comes from, the electoral and economic problems it seeks to solve, as well as two key lessons from the US: the scale and delivery of public investment and questions of power and control over critical infrastructure and the green economy.

‍

Rachel Reeves’ ‘Securonomics’. Last week, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave a speech in Washington outlining Labour’s economic policy platform, framed by the term ‘Securonomics’. Reeves provided more detail in a policy report released by Labour Together: A New Business Model for Britain: Building Economic Strength in an Age of Insecurity. 

• Post-neoliberalism and paradigm shifts. The speech was the clearest sign yet that the Labour Party are serious about accelerating an economic paradigm shift beyond neoliberalism, as Reeves explained the need for a new model for economics and a more interventionist role of the state. This follows an emerging global consensus that economies have suffered from an over-reliance on market mechanisms, rather than the power of the state, to solve deep rooted structural issues, and that previous economic models have contributed to widening geographic inequalities. Reeves emphasises these two failures in her speech. 
• Bidenomics, modern supply-side economics and productivism. In the US, ‘Bidenomics’ is characterised by a more active role for the state in its industrial strategy to make and shape markets central to domestic industries of the future, particularly, reshoring (or ‘friendshoring’) supply chains to secure the supply of critical materials and create good quality jobs. (See our previous briefing on Bidenomics and what the UK can learn from the US.) Reeves drew explicitly on this model which is referred to variously as ‘Bidenomics’ or ‘modern-supply side economics’. IPPR’s George Dibb notes that a more accurate term would be what Harvard economist Dani Rodrik calls ‘productivism’: “a “major shift from the last-gasp-neoliberalism currently being offered by the Conservative government” and “also a shift from the approach of previous Labour administrations”. Dibb’s paper for Renewal explains why the UK economy needs a more active and strategic state to “meet our carbon emissions targets whilst also capturing the economic upside through domestic reindustrialisation.” Demos’ Ben Glover provides an explanation of ‘productivism’ - “An approach that prioritises the dissemination of productive economic opportunities throughout all regions of the economy and segments of the labour force.” - and argues that this “wider vision, if adopted by Labour, could deliver a genuine economic paradigm shift”.
• Securonomics in Britain. The substance of this shift is not especially new, but this is perhaps the clearest Labour have been to date about the intellectual underpinning of their economic policy. Reeves’ paper and speech argue that Labour would make two fundamental economic shifts in government, the first is a move away from free market economics and towards the idea of a strategic state working in partnership with business on an industrial strategy, the second is away from an economic model focused on growth in London and the South East, towards a model of growth that actively seeks to disperse growth opportunities throughout the country. The substance here is mainly found in Labour’s Green Prosperity Plan including public investments made through an initial £8bn National Wealth Fund, a publicly-owned Great British Energy renewable generator and, importantly, that “throughout, we will use public investment to underpin and unlock further private investment” pointing to the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act in the US. IPPR’s George Dibb commented that "this is a smart move which leans into a new international consensus, aligns the UK with a global economic hegemon, and positions Labour with a powerful narrative of reform & renewal." 
• How new is this? Critics might say that lots of these themes have been around for a while in British politics, including on the right. After all, in recent years the UK government has experimented with industrial strategies, taken a strategic role during Covid, and have famously committed to ‘levelling up’ the country. This shift has been driven partly from the inability of old economic models to address challenges, and partly from the new electoral reality of the so-called ‘red wall’. However none of these nascent ideas have really translated into serious policy, partly because they have not been rooted in a serious critique of modern British capitalism. Reeves’ speech indicates Labour are approaching this agenda in a more strategic way.

‍

Learning from the US 1: fiscal challenges. Reeves was keen to emphasise that Labour’s ‘Securonomics’ and £28bn Green Prosperity Plan would be subordinate to their fiscal rules, which could threaten the amount of spending available for their industrial strategy, and ultimately, its chances of success. Since their rule is to have public debt falling as a percentage of GDP, a Labour government would be constrained by the level of growth in the economy, which could make it hard to break out of the ‘doom-loop’ of low growth and low investment . (A previous report from IPPR’s Carys Roberts and Carsten Jung explains how debt:GDP ratios don’t have to be a hard constraint on government investments so long as they generate growth.)

• Green industrial strategy on the cheap? The US’s green industrial strategy is characterised by huge increases in state spending to direct capital into new industries and catalyse massive growth in the green economy. John Chowcat explains how Labour’s current climate spending pledges “seem disproportionate to the existing scale of rival Western financial ambitions”, “even allowing for currency differences and the small size of the UK economy compared to that of the US, China and the EU”. IPPR’s George Dibb explains why a ‘modern supply-side economics’ “must be maintained in parallel” with stimulating demand. Consequently, Labour may need to rethink its fiscal framework to allow for more government spending for its green industrial strategy to be successful.
• Rewriting the rules. Is there a way of squaring Labour’s stated fiscal rules with the need for higher investment? Future Economy Scotland and IIPP academic Laurie Macfarlane has previously explained how governments could spend far more on capital investment without increasing debt:GDP ratios if they change the accounting rules which remove liabilities of publicly-owned corporations, like state investment banks, from measures of public debt. Germany targets general government debt rather than public sector net debt to exclude the liabilities of its public investment banks, which enables their publicly-owned banks to increase capital investment; their government has a below average general gross government debt (71% of GDP), but if they included the liabilities of public corporations in their accounting of the public finances - as we do in the UK - their debt would account for 181% of GDP, the third highest in the EU. (For more on state investment banks, read our resource bank page.)
• Taxing wealth. Keen observers of Joe Biden’s Administration would note that Bidenomics also included increasing taxes on the rich and the largest corporations. Reeves was keen to draw attention to the UK’s tax burden in saying she wouldn’t raise taxes. However if there is no changing of fiscal rules then the serious amount of revenue that could be raised via taxation of wealth is another option for increasing investment. Even former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers now believes “there is capacity to raise revenue from the wealthy on a quite substantial scale – far more than is politically imaginable – without doing any appreciable damage to economic growth”. 

‍

Learning from the US 2: carrots and sticks. In recent months critics of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US have warned that the approach of using public subsidies to catalyse further private investment is risks embedding corporate power in the green transition, rather than challenging the primacy of shareholder interests. 

• Derisking vs the big green state. In her speech, Rachel Reeves suggested mobilising more private capital from UK pension funds to help fund green infrastructure. (Read our recent briefing for critique and alternatives.) The US’s Inflation Reduction Act embodies a ‘derisking approach’, which grants and tax credits to boost corporate profits and companies’ market shares for those that invest in the green transition. Brett Christophers warns that by allowing active asset management firms to gain control over crucial elements of America's infrastructure such as the road network, electricity grid, and housing stock, the state is inadvertently strengthening their power and enabling them to extract excessive profits. Political economist Daniela Gabor contrasts ‘de-risking’ private capital in the green transition to a ‘Big Green State’ approach that exercises close control over credit flows as an instrument to discipline private capital: “derisking and capital discipline are fundamentally at odds because former relies on private profitability to enlist private capital while latter forces capital into pursuing strategic objectives of the state”.
• Democratic industrial policy?. The Times’ Mehreen Khan explains how “concentrating more power in the hands of multinationals and private capital, which will be in charge of executing the green transition”, may pose problems for Labour, but also suggests that their plans for a National Wealth Fund to take direct public equity stakes in clean energy projects and a publicly owned renewable energy producer “could put the UK at the forefront of a more democratically controlled industrial policy that does not cede power to the private sector to manage the transition from fossil fuels.” Common Wealth’s Melanie Brusseler explains how Labour's proposals for a National Wealth Fund and a publicly-owned renewable energy generator breaks with the market-led approach of Bidenomics and could avoid the perils of a derisking approach if designed correctly. 
• Corporate power shouldn’t direct the green transition. IPPR’s George Dibb highlights the importance of strong competition policy to ensure the green transition is not directed at the expense of workers and consumers: “A mission-oriented, supply-side approach means being pro-business, but not pro businesses that work against the interests of society or extract from it. It means recognising the power of the private sector when it works with purpose, but acknowledging that not every firm in every sector does that.” Dibb concludes that Bidenomics includes both “carrots and sticks for firms, not just handouts. Examples include robust competition policy and clawback clauses on excess profits, as well as making support conditional upon union recognition, good pay, and a commitment to decarbonisation. These are the sorts of solutions that Labour should consider to boost the British economy and confront concentrated markets.”

‍

Building economic strength in an age of insecurity. Inevitably, much of the reaction to Reeves’ speech has focused on the merits of the word ‘securonomics’ - one of a long list of ‘onomics’ that UK politicians have used to characterise their economic policy. The interesting point here is not whether the phrase itself is any good, but what it says about the way Labour is framing the economic debate. The frame of insecurity is politically savvy as it marries the worries of voters about job security and personal finances with a wider narrative of climate disruption and the need to bolster the UK’s resilience to external shocks. With the cost of living crisis yet to dominate politics for a while longer (and is still top of voters priorities), there is an electoral logic to Labour using this frame to link their longer-term plans to the immediate pain voters are feeling. Whether or not ‘securonomics’ lasts the distance as a phrase, we should expect labour to be speaking the language of economic security in the run in to the next election. 

Good morning from New Economy Brief.

Pay may be the hot issue for workers and their unions at the moment due to inflation, but it is far from the only topic to gather momentum recently. 

One trend in recent policy discussions over work has been the centrality of time, with the 4 Day Week campaign the most famous example. 

This week we explore another proposal around working time, the ‘Right to Disconnect’, explain how and why this issue has shot up the agenda, and offer some thoughts about the evolving politics of workers’ rights.

‍

‍Labour backs new laws to improve work-life balance. The news that the Labour Party are set to propose the introduction of a new "right to disconnect" policy caused a stir in Westminster last week. This policy would grant employees the ability to disengage from work-related communication and tasks outside of their normal working hours, with the objective of addressing work-related stress and promoting a healthier work-life balance.

• Combatting the ‘always on’ work culture. The objective of the "right to disconnect" is to establish boundaries between work and personal life, ensuring that employees have designated periods of rest and leisure. A report on the right to disconnect from the trade union Prospect notes that ‘always-on’ working cultures and poorly managed remote work arrangements can give rise to various concerns for workers. These include undisclosed overtime, heightened work intensity, challenges to mental health and well-being, musculoskeletal disorders resulting from strain on muscles, joints, and bones, unequal treatment and discrimination against women and individuals with disabilities, increased utilisation of monitoring and surveillance technologies, as well as instances of remote and digital bullying.
• Rationale. The Labour Party argues that this measure would help alleviate the negative effects of constant connectivity and enable individuals to better maintain their mental well-being in an ‘always-on’ culture of checking emails and taking calls away from work. The right to disconnect seeks to enforce clear guidelines and regulations to protect employees from excessive work demands beyond their official working hours. Allowing individuals the right to disconnect fosters a more sustainable and balanced approach to work, safeguards against burnout and enhances overall productivity. Andrew Pakes, Research Director and Deputy General Secretary at Prospect Union explains the rationale for the right to disconnect after the pandemic accelerated trends in digital surveillance and abnormal working conditions: (e.g. one-in-five companies are now using digital surveillance to monitor workers or planning to do so.)

‍

‍Part of Labour’s ‘New Deal for Working People’… The proposed policy is part of Labour’s wider package to improve working conditions and pay: the New Deal for Working People. The plan focuses on strengthening workers’ rights, improving job security, fair pay, work-life balance, health and safety and providing more education and training opportunities at work. 

• …and a fraught politics of working time. The proposal should also be seen as part of a struggle against working longer hours. Reducing working hours has been a longstanding proposal to improve working life and the balance between work, leisure and important unpaid activity such as care. As Novara Media’s Polly Smythe notes: “In Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes speculated that technological advancement would soon precipitate a 15-hour workweek, and eventually do away with the need for human labour altogether. Yet the consequence of our hyper-connected lives has not been a reduction but an increase in hours.” The TUC’s online calculator made for Work Your Proper Hours day back in 2019 found that workers in the UK put in more than £35bn in unpaid overtime. Since the pandemic accelerated trends towards remote working, there has been a rise in digital surveillance of employees and a blurring between work and home life, where workers are expected to work longer hours and always be contactable. A Harvard study analysed the emails and meetings of 3.1 million individuals in 16 cities worldwide during the pandemic, it was discovered that the average duration of a workday had grown by approximately 48.5 minutes in the early stages of the crisis.

‍

‍How would it work? A 2020 guide from Prospect looks at different approaches to the “right to disconnect” and how to ensure unions are involved in safeguarding workers’ well-being and rights as new technology changes how we work. There are three primary methods of implementing a Right to Disconnect:

• Enterprise agreement. This approach involves employers and unions negotiating and reaching an agreement on the Right to Disconnect. Unions can advocate for this right either as part of collective bargaining or through a separate agreement. An example is Telefonica, which established its own Right to Disconnect in collaboration with its Works Council and unions.
• Directive approach. This method entails enacting a legislative framework that requires organisations to engage in negotiations with their workforce or unions to establish a Right to Disconnect. This approach is similar to the French model, where companies with 50 or more employees are obligated to negotiate rules suitable for their industry.
• Prescriptive approach. This approach involves the establishment of specific details about the Right to Disconnect through legislation or statutory regulations. Similar to the Irish Code of Practice implemented in April 2021, this approach outlines the necessary components and guidelines for implementing a Right to Disconnect within an organisation. A 2019 paper from Autonomy discusses the international precedents of such a proposal, as well as outlining the legislative wording of a hypothetical ‘Right to Disconnect’, thereby providing an off the shelf option for policymakers.

‍

‍Political analysis. The FT’s Stephen Bush thinks that the ‘right to disconnect’ “is a talker that, whether you are shaking your head at the prospect or counting the days until a Labour government implements it, will be broadly recognised by people in most workplaces. For good or for ill, it is going to define how a lot of people see Keir Starmer’s Labour party…ultimately the biggest change that Starmer’s Labour proposes to make to the UK’s economic model is to significantly increase the power of workers and trade unions”, which could be one “area of friction” for a minority Labour government reliant on Liberal Democrat support.

• New politics of work? While ‘Labour supports worker’s rights’ is hardly a shocking headline, it has perhaps flown under the radar how much policy exists in this space. The popular support for recent strikes, and success that Joe Biden has had in branding himself a ‘union man’ indicate a recognition that in turbulent economic times, the economic security offered by rights and unions is a potential vote winner, especially as economic insecurity is the key commonality among swing voters. The popularity of this agenda is perhaps best demonstrated by a Conservative candidate for London Mayor launching their campaign talking about the four day week.‍
• Support. The Right to Disconnect pushes the usual politics of worker’s rights into new territory, appealing to many white collar, younger and remote workers - all demographics that are traditionally underrepresented in trade unions. Polling commissioned by Prospect has found that two thirds of remote workers support the idea of a right to disconnect with companies required to negotiate with their staff over rules on when people could be contacted out of normal working hours.

Good morning from New Economy Brief. 

For as long as we can remember, ‘growth’ has been seen as synonymous with economic success, and the Gross Domestic Product - GDP - the de facto measure for the economic health of nations. Growth is one of Rishi Sunak’s five priorities for 2023. Keir Starmer wants Britain to be a “growth superpower”. Being part of an ‘anti-growth coalition’ became the political insult of 2022. A policy platform that isn’t focused on growth, or indeed actively opposes it, would be politically unthinkable. Or would it?

This week, MEPs, policy wonks and campaigners have gathered in Brussels to imagine what a “post-growth” Europe could look like. The ‘Beyond Growth’ conference is evidence of a growing movement which argues that exponential growth cannot be sustained in the face of a climate emergency and growing inequality. But can post-growth (or degrowth) become mainstream? Are there alternatives? And is there genuine political appetite for it? 

The problem with growth. Current debates around the limits of growth date back as far as the 1960s and 1970s, with the Club of Rome’s 1972 paper Limits to Growth seen as a seminal publication that has since been successively revised and republished. The central tenet of the paper and subsequent arguments for degrowth is that exponential economic growth cannot be decoupled from resource and energy use. In other words, if the commitment to growth continues, finite resources will run out and irreparable damage will be done to the environment and nature. In 2016, the Limits to Growth APPG found that the predictions in the Limits to Growth paper are essentially still correct and that new understandings of planetary boundaries have added new dimensions to the challenge. A 2009 study by the Stockholm Resilience Centre identified “planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed” in order to “prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change”. An update of the research in 2015 found that of the nine planetary boundaries identified (climate change, ocean acidification, biodiversity loss, interference with global nitrogen and phosphorous cycles, ozone depletion, global freshwater use, land system change, atmospheric aerosol loading and chemical pollution) four have already been crossed. These boundaries have been incorporated into the Doughnut concept by Professor Kate Raworth, setting an ecological ceiling above a social foundation and outlining a safe ‘space in which humanity can thrive’. 

• The problem with GDP. When we talk about growth, we generally mean the monetary value of goods and services produced in an economy - or GDP. However, this “ultimate yardstick of economic performance” not only fails to account for economic harms but makes us “lose sight of what actually contributes to a happier, more prosperous society and a healthier environment” such as by ignoring non-monetised yet essential activities such as unpaid domestic work and childcare, argues NEF’s Lukasz Krebel. What’s more, the often used GDP per capita statistic is an inadequate tool for measuring how prosperity is shared out in society, says Krebel: “higher GDP doesn’t necessarily mean a better life for all of a country’s residents, since how the economic pie is shared is often extremely unequal”. Even the ONS has highlighted the limitations of GDP and its failure to take account of “things like social, natural, or human capital – things which all improve our lives and contribute to our happiness and health”. 
• The Great Decoupling. One argument for the inadequacy of GDP is the decoupling of wage growth from GDP (sometimes referred to as the ‘Great Decoupling’). A 2018 OECD paper found that “on average across 24 OECD countries, real median wage growth has decoupled from productivity growth”. Advances in technology were cited as a “downward pressure on median wages” but also “‘winner-takes-most’ dynamics as labour shares at the technological frontier have decreased and between-firm wage dispersion has increased”. 

So what exactly are we talking about when we talk about degrowth? Faced with growth’s harmful effects on planetary boundaries, degrowth proponents advocate strategies which seek a deliberate and planned contraction in the economies of high-income countries with the ultimate ambition of a steady-state economy. It is argued that the reduction in the materials and energy produced by economies can be achieved without negatively affecting living standards. Central tenets of degrowth proposals are equitably sharing out resources, and reducing consumption and income by reducing working time. 

• Growth, but not as you know it. There are some who believe that growth can be decoupled from its harmful effects and can therefore still be pursued. Proponents of ‘green growth’, for example, argue that it is not economic growth per se that is impossible, but only its current patterns and forms. There is some evidence that economies such as the UK are experiencing a degree of relative decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions, although this should be taken with a pinch of salt. Many countries like the UK have essentially ‘offshored’ emissions by importing carbon intensive products from economies where growth is still very much positively associated with carbon emissions. Advocates, such as the World Bank, say that growth is still necessary to eradicate poverty and improve living standards and, with renewable energy and resource-efficiency, can exist safely in a ‘circular economy’. An extension of this is ‘inclusive growth’, which the OECD defines as ‘economic growth that is distributed fairly across society and creates opportunities for all’.

Political implications. The line-up of the Beyond Growth conference alone shows that the post-growth debate is no longer happening at the fringes of politics and economics. The event is the initiative of 20 cross-party MEPs with speakers including President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola and Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Pedro Manuel Moreno. Just last month, the Irish President, Michael D Higgins, condemned neoliberalism and the “obsession” with growth. However, while degrowth may be becoming less taboo, it is by no means mainstream. Polls show that growth is still popular with the UK public, leaving little motivation to the main parties to make the case against it. A poll conducted by Ipsos MORI last year found that while 49% of those surveyed said that economic growth does more good than harm, only 17% said the opposite. 

• But… the public aren’t quite as pro-growth when faced with its associated harms. In the same Ipsos MORI poll, 43% said that more focus should be placed on protecting the environment, even if that harms growth, with only 29% saying the opposite. The Covid pandemic may also have played a role in realigning many people’s attitudes to growth, too. A poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of Positive Money in May 2020 found that more than 8 in 10 thought that the UK should prioritise health and wellbeing of citizens over GDP during the coronavirus crisis. When asked whether the UK should prioritise improved social and environmental outcomes over GDP when pandemic is over, 60% agreed. Whether its pandemics or the climate, could the crises we face spell the end for the pro-growth consensus?
• Messaging matters. As with all political and economic ideas, how it is explained really matters. A study of framing around post-growth models for example has found that the phrase ‘green economy’ is as popular as ‘economic growth’ while the idea of ‘degrowth’ is much more mixed. 
• Everyone’s a winner. The political appeal of the idea of growth until now is that it allows for a story where everyone gets better off, without having to confront the tricky politics of redistribution, which are central to any post-growth model. This dynamic is difficult to break. However, the above polling evidence, alongside the effect of the great ‘decoupling’ and greater awareness of climate harms do suggest that models that decentre growth may gain traction in the coming years. This might at first look more like Keir Starmer’s pledge to introduce new measures of national wellbeing and value them equally alongside growth, but the idea of questioning growth is certainly no longer confined to the fringes of the debate.

Good morning from New Economy Brief

‍

Inheritance tax is in the news, for two rather different reasons. Firstly because of one person who isn’t paying it, and secondly because of the mounting rumours that it may be a leading candidate for the highly anticipated pre-election tax cut.

‍

The myths around inheritance tax are many and various, and the politics and economics of inheritance tax interact with each other in complicated ways. The tax has important distributional consequences, and proposals exist for reform from different sides of the political spectrum. This week’s briefing explores the political and economic debate around inheritance tax and examines the proposals for reform.

‍

Who pays inheritance tax? King Charles has been crowned, but the Monarch is exempt from paying any tax on the £15.2bn royal estate he inherited from his mother. Some have argued that this is unfair, as the rest of us have to pay a 40% levy applied on assets valued over £325,000. 

• A minority tax. It’s not just the King who doesn’t pay inheritance tax (IHT) though, in fact the relatively high threshold means that very few people actually pay the tax. HMRC data from 2019-20 reveals that only 3.25% of deaths resulted in an IHT charge, and Demos calculate that only 6,000 estates actually pay inheritance tax each year because of the high thresholds and exemptions. It’s not just those at the bottom that don’t pay inheritance tax though, analysis from the Office for Tax Simplification (p5) finds that the very wealthiest also don’t pay much IHT either, as there are many loopholes used to avoid paying. This results in a surprisingly low IHT revenue figure of around £7bn per year - although this is set to rise as asset values inflame while the threshold remains frozen.
• But inheritance tax is unpopular. Inheritance tax has an almost mythical political status. The prospect of any cut raises the spectre of George Osborne’s famous inheritance tax gambit which allegedly convinced Gordon Brown not to call an early general election in 2007. Despite most people not paying it, public attitudes research shows that IHT is unpopular, for instance only a third of Labour supporters think inheritance tax is fair, whilst two thirds think income tax and National Insurance are fair. Oxford Professor Ben Ansell suggests that “when it comes to property or savings, there’s very little public support because it gnaws away at many people’s fundamental views of desert, effort, and prudence”. Essentially, many people believe that parents should be able to pass on assets accrued over their lifetime to their children.

‍

However, inheritance tax has important distributional consequences. IHT remains one of the only taxes on wealth in the UK and is an important way of transferring wealth as inequality soars. A combination of rising house prices, declining home ownership and stagnating incomes has created stark inequality between generations, but this will accelerate as newer generations inherit wealth from their parents. An IPPR report explains that “wealth transfers, such as inheritances, confer opportunity on the recipient. Taxing and redistributing transfers, either to individuals or through investment in collective services, therefore promotes equality of opportunity… As such, failing to tax wealth transfers sufficiently perpetuates economic injustice, and negatively impacts social mobility, while also constraining economic growth.”

• Failing to tax inheritance will accelerate wealth inequality. The IFS have argued that wealth is the growing economic divide in the UK today, warning that the economic prospects of young generations are struggling to match those of their predecessors, and recent declines in social mobility may accelerate as inherited wealth becomes an increasingly important part of lifetime resources. The Spectator’s Ross Clark explains why “scrapping inheritance tax is a terrible idea… There’s nothing conservative about encouraging unearned wealth”. Demos’s Andrew O’Brien argues that “Any tax cut is not only unlikely to incentivise inheritance (given the growing levels of inheritance) it would also be a change that would benefit only a handful of already wealthy people”. They also found that a typical person in the South of England born in the 1970s is set to inherit three-and-a-half times as much as a typical person in the North East. A report from Demos on the UK’s ‘New Age of Inheritance’ found that the real value of inheritances transferred annually in the UK has doubled roughly every 20 years since 1979 to over £100bn a year. The Resolution Foundation expects ‘peak inheritance’ to be reached in 2046, where the value of inheritances is forecast to double again.

‍

But it’s not perfect, and can be reformed. IPPR propose abolishing IHT and replacing it with a lifetime donee-based gift tax levied on the gifts received by an individual above a lifetime allowance of £125,000. After this limit is reached, any income from gifts is taxed annually at the same rate as income from Labour. This would increase the tax level on higher earners who receive large gifts and also encourages gifting to less well-off beneficiaries. It also has fewer exemptions so no one can exploit the current loopholes which allow many wealthy people to game the system and avoid paying IHT, for example by putting their assets into trusts.

• The potential tax take. A similar gift tax has also been advocated for by the Resolution Foundation. They calculated that taxing gifts through the income tax system with allowance of £125,000 could have raised £15bn in 2020/21, £9.2bn more than the current IHT system, and would do so more progressively as most people would pay the basic rate, whilst a higher top rate helps to reduce wealth inequality by levying more from the highest earners.
• Getting around the politics. IHT currently taxes estates, not the inheritance of the individual receiving it, making it easier to be classed as a politically unpopular ‘death tax’, rather than a social mobility enhancing gift tax, which can be framed to appeal to values of equality of opportunity and fairness. Ben Ansell’s public attitudes research has shown that emphasising the benefits of lower income taxes and higher public spending “led to a decline in just under ten percentage points in people thinking inheritance taxes were too high”.
• Other options. The fact that IHT is one of the only taxes on wealth in the UK means it is doing a lot of heavy lifting in terms of redistribution. If there were better ways of taxing wealth more consistently, such as a land value tax, or a net wealth tax, the imperative for a tax on inheritances would reduce, although there would still be an argument from a fairness perspective.

‍

It’s all politics. Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham recently reported that PM Rishi Sunak is “considering cutting the UK’s unpopular inheritance tax ahead of the next general election, people familiar with the matter said, a move senior Conservatives think will give his ruling party a major boost”, particularly from ‘Blue Wall’ voters. This is worth exploring. The political logic of pursuing pre-election tax cuts has two driving motives. One is the desire to do something that will leave voters feeling better off before polling day, and given that improvements to public services or rising real wages are harder for the government to deliver in the remaining 18 months or so of the parliament, tax cuts begin to look attractive. The second is a belief held by many Conservatives that lowering taxes will lead to growth, and that championing low taxes can tell a story about a kind of small-state economy a Conservative government would create that is distinct from anything other parties are offering. It is hard to see how cutting IHT fulfils either of these objectives. By its very nature few people will feel any kind of material benefit from such a tax cut, compared to cutting income tax by 1p for example (which has a similar price tag), and even the most Thatcherite of Conservatives would struggle to argue that the rate of IHT is holding back the UK economy. 

• The language of priorities. Reading the above polling on IHT, it’s easy to see why a party in need of a polling boost and a dividing line with the opposition might be tempted by this idea, but it is also worth remembering that this is a party extremely vulnerable to the charge that they are determined to cut taxes for the 1%, as seen in the recent row over pension lifetime allowances. There is also the question of priority; while people might not like IHT, is it really a vote-moving issue for them? With the cost of living crisis devastating household finances and public services on their knees, there is a real risk of such a move backfiring and the government looking extremely out of touch with people’s priorities.
• Opposition choices. Finally, there is the question of how opposition parties and others would respond to such a move. There are important reasons, both principled and practical, for defending taxing inheritances. In principle the idea of restricting the ability for inequality to be passed through the generations is an important one, and practically while there are options for reform it is always easier to keep an existing tax than to create a new one. But if IHT were to be abolished before an election, the above examples demonstrate that there are options to replace the revenue and actually raise taxes on the wealthy in ways which are perhaps less politically difficult than pledging to reintroduce IHT.

Good morning from New Economy Brief. 

How sustainable are the public finances? This question shapes our political debate in so many ways, and yet there is precious little data that can help us understand the reality, leading to some quite blunt statistics (such as gross debt and deficit numbers) dominating our fiscal debate. 

In fiscal policy, as with many other areas of economics, what matters is what is measured, and, therefore, what is measured really matters. That’s why the decision to add a new public finance measurement, Public Sector Net Worth, is worthy of deeper exploration. 

In this week’s New Economy Brief we explain what this measure is, what it tells us about the UK’s public finances, and how it could be used in the future.

‍

‍Public Sector Net Worth. Last week the Office for National Statistics (ONS) began measuring Public Sector Net Worth (PSNW) for the first time. This is a broader measure of the state of the UK’s public finances, as it calculates the value of the total assets a government owns, minus its liabilities. Assets include physical assets owned by the state, such as schools, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure, and financial assets such as student loans. Grant Fitzner, the ONS’s Chief Economist, explained that the new PSNW measure “provides a fuller picture of long-term fiscal sustainability and captures the impact of a wider range of government activities”.

• It’s not that simple. Of course, as with many economic statistics, it’s a little bit more complicated than that. There are different ways of measuring the value of assets, and especially of which liabilities are included in the measure, these can skew the statistics and frustrate efforts to make comparisons between different economies.
• Why is this important? Economists have often complained that commentary about the public finances is overly focused on the total debt of the public sector rather than how much it is worth, which gives the government too little incentive to invest in the value of their public services and infrastructure. As the BBC’s review of its own impartiality on fiscal policy recently found, many journalists instinctively believe that all debt is bad, a lack of nuance which could be partially attributable to the paucity of the official statistics.
• The case for investment. The Institute for Public Policy Research’s (IPPR) Carys Roberts and Carsten Jung explain that the idea of PSNW helps to “enshrine in government thinking the notion that public investments should be encouraged if they generate value”. Richard Hughes, now head of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), along with other co-authors from the Resolution Foundation, have previously called for the UK’s fiscal rules to include a PSNW objective “to deliver an improvement in public sector net worth as a share of GDP over five years. This would incentivise prudent investment decisions to address the long-term challenges facing the UK”. Interestingly, their suite of proposed changes to fiscal rules also includes an ‘escape clause’ which recognises the need for more active fiscal policy and the suspension of other rules “if the economic outlook deteriorates significantly”, which could enable fiscal policy to play the lead role in supporting the economy in the event of shocks. An IMF paper has also found that countries with higher PSNW are found to recover faster in the aftermath of recessions and experience shallower economic downturns. 

The value of the UK’s public sector: -£605.8bn. The ONS calculated the UK’s Public Sector Net Worth to be in a deficit of £605.8bn. The Resolution Foundation’s analysis notes that the value of the public sector has declined from -£530bn last year, continuing "a long-term trend of decline in net worth, which has fallen substantially from the surpluses recorded by the ONS pre-financial crisis” and shows that “the country is failing to invest in its future”. 

• Analysis: “Worst of any major economy”. A recent report from the Resolution Foundation’s Economy 2030 Inquiry shows how the UK’s public-sector net worth is “very low” by international standards - only Portugal performs worse (for countries where reliable data exists). They argue that “combining low investment with fairly normal borrowing levels and repeated economic shocks has meant steep declines in public sector net worth…which has fallen by more than 50 per cent of GDP over the past two decades…Had the UK’s levels [of public investment] been at the OECD average over the past two decades, public investment would have been a truly transformational £500 billion higher (in 2022 prices).” Economist Julian Jessop (Fellow of the right-wing think tank, the Institute of Economic Affairs) notes that the UK’s PSNW is “the worst of any major economy” and that including measuring PSNW as part of the government’s fiscal rules “could have broad appeal” as fiscal conservatives hope it would force the government to face up to the cost of longer-term liabilities, such as public sector pensions, and advocates of more expansionary fiscal policy hope “the inclusion of a wider range of assets in the fiscal rules might create more room for governments to borrow to invest… as long as the resulting increase in liabilities is matched by an increase in the value of the assets owned by the public sector.”

What could this enable politically? The primary practical application of PSNW is in its interaction with fiscal rules. Targets based on PSNW rather than debt or deficits could reduce the temptation for the Treasury to cut investment and engage in fire sales of public assets in times of economic downturn. Labour is planning to adopt a PSNW approach to fiscal policy, while stopping short of committing to a new fiscal rule. They argue that a focus on debt has led to “a short-termist mismanagement of the public finances under the Conservatives”, reports Bloomberg’s Philip Aldrick, where “privatizations and asset sales may reduce the debt but have left the government with one of the largest net worth deficits of all OECD members…Labour hopes a full balance sheet rule might also reframe the debate around its plans to borrow to invest in green infrastructure.”

• PSNW and public ownership. In 2019 Labour’s Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell proposed the adoption of a PSNW target to improve the ‘overall balance sheet by the end of the Parliament’. Crucially for Labour at that time, this rule would enable more government borrowing to return privatised utilities into public ownership, as they would then be listed as valuable assets when assessing the public finances.
• The rationale for change. Professor Simon Wren-Lewis has written on how a public sector net worth target would be a more appropriate fiscal rule given the acute need for major green investment, though he has also argued that there needs to be a broader de-emphasis of fiscal targets in favour of a more holistic economic outlook. (See his discussion with Bloomberg’s Stephanie Flanders on fiscal policy challenges during and after the pandemic.) 
• Rules vs principles. Wren-Lewis is not alone in questioning the concept of fiscal rules. The New Economics Foundation (NEF) recommended the government’s ‘fiscal rules’ be replaced with a new framework, including a Fiscal Policy Committee (FPC) housed at the OBR or other third-party institution, appointed by government and parliament and guided by a set of ‘fiscal principles’. The FPC’s mandate would be based on resource constraints, full capacity utilisation, the private sector balance sheet position, and public sector net worth.
• An unsustainable status quo? While the measurement of PSNW may not on its own herald a brave new dawn of fiscal understanding, it is part of a wider drumbeat of dissatisfaction with the current fiscal policy framework which is worth watching. In recent months the current framework of rolling targets based on debt figures has been criticised by a wide range of people and institutions including the NIESR, Resolution Foundation, the IfG’s Jill Rutter and the Times’ Simon Nixon. After many years where debt and deficit figures dominated all political debate in the UK to the exclusion of all else, it is possible that there may be a growing appetite for a new approach.

The public don’t generally like to think of their pension as risky, so it’s always a surprise when a politician argues that the issue with management of pension funds is that there isn’t enough risk-taking. But this is the view of UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who argued recently that this is one of the ways to unlock investment in potential ‘high growth UK businesses’. 

‍

This week’s New Economy Brief looks at the debate over pension investments, including the growth of overseas ownership of UK businesses and infrastructure, and alternatives to the drive to leverage more private investment.

‍

Pension funds aren’t investing in the UK. UK pension schemes are some of the biggest sources of capital for British companies, but according to the FT funds have been moving away from investing in the UK stock market, and more UK firms are listing overseas. Prominent business figures such as Nicholas Lyons, Lord Mayor of the City of London, have urged Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to compel more capital from UK pension funds into growing domestic companies and infrastructure. 

• Who owns our companies? If UK pension funds don’t own UK shares, then who does? Pension fund demand for UK equities has fallen by £400bn since 1997. A report published in 2022 from the TUC, Common Wealth and the High Pay Centre finds that the proportion of UK shares held directly by UK pension funds decreased from almost 1 in 3 in 1990 to less than 1 in 25 in 2018. Most UK shares are now held by overseas investors, with the proportion rising from 12% to 55% during the same period. When accounting for direct and indirect ownership through pooled funds, UK pension funds own less than 6% of UK shares.

‍

Chancellor urges pensions to make ‘riskier’ investments. Pensions funds have been making less ‘risky’ investments since the shift from defined-benefit to defined-contribution schemes, meaning more money has shifted from company equities and into government bonds. The government is due to publish new measures in the Autumn Statement to “unlock productive investment” from defined-contribution pension funds to enable more financing for high-growth companies and make the London Stock Exchange a more attractive place to list businesses. This could include pooling of Britain's ~28,000 fragmented defined-contribution schemes so they are consolidated in larger funds and ‘mandating’ pension funds to make certain investments. 

• Looking to Canada and Australia? During a visit to Washington, Chancellor Hunt gave a speech noting that Australia and Canada have managed to increase their returns by consolidating their pension fund industry, which makes it simpler for them to invest in unlisted companies with higher growth potential. According to the OECD, the percentage of UK pension fund assets invested in equities dropped from 55.7% in 2001 to 26.4% in 2021. In comparison, Canadian funds had 40.6% and Australian schemes had 47% of their assets invested in equities.
• Crowding-in opportunities with carrots, not sticks. However, the FT’s Helen Thomas argues that “political edicts on investment strategy are not the right way to emulate the country’s success”, as pension funds in Australia were attracted by opportunities to invest in projects with high returns, rather than compelled. She suggests that the government is not offering enough opportunities in clean energy, housing, or transport infrastructure, quoting former regulator and professional pension trustee Andrew Warwick-Thompson: “It is not pension regime reform that is needed to increase investment in UK assets… but coherent, stable and sustainable economic and industrial policies to make the UK fundamentally more attractive to investors.” 
• Risky business? Encouraging risks with pensions isn’t necessarily something you would imagine a UK Chancellor doing, especially a few months out from the big LDI pensions scare (ironically, caused by pension funds being overexposed to falls in the value of ‘safe’ government bonds as rates rose). Arguably the current system already involves too much risk for savers. The IFS last week published a report setting out the case for a new review of the pension system, arguing that the move to defined-contribution pensions results in “individuals bearing risks that are difficult to manage well”.

‍

But is private investment necessarily the solution? British companies and infrastructure certainly need more investment, and both major parties have suggested mobilising private capital from pension funds as a way to revitalise the country’s infrastructure and grow the economy. However, Common Wealth’s Mat Lawrence argues that mobilising private capital can lock in extractive behaviours as investors seek ever higher returns, which could encourage profiteering from UK infrastructure and the green economy.

• De-risking private investment is not risk-free for the government. Private financing of infrastructure projects can be more expensive than government funding, exactly because private investors not only expect a steady flow of income in form of dividends but also want to minimise any risk to themselves. As economist Daniela Gabor has observed, attracting investment is increasingly accomplished through ‘de-risking’, where the state takes on the risks to ensure higher returns to private investors. In a piece for the Guardian, Professor Brett Christophers argues that the influence of asset management firms is inextricably linked to the ‘de-risking’ agenda (in which he includes the US Inflation Reduction Act). In a separate piece for the FT, Christophers explains the risks of relying on private pension funds to invest in public infrastructure. 
• Look at the experience of developing countries. The down-sides of de-risking private capital to fill infrastructure ‘financing gaps’ have been thoroughly demonstrated by the World Bank’s programme to leverage investment for developing countries. Packaging infrastructure projects in ways to interest risk-averse institutional investors, such as pensions funds, require transferring risks onto the public sector, which has shown to bring excessive costs to taxpayers and exacerbate financial instability. A report by Eurodad’s María José Romero Duarte found that the World Bank's strategy of encouraging private investment in infrastructure projects goes against the historical experience of successful developed and developing countries, as well as the current practice in emerging markets, where infrastructure is mostly financed by the public sector. 

‍

Neglecting the role of public finance. State-backed investment banks are one route to providing finance where private banks may be reluctant to do so – in disadvantaged regions, new technologies or in sectors where returns are either too low or too risky.

• Patient capital and innovation. National investment banks are particularly valuable for providing 'patient' capital: long-term finance that is beyond the time horizon of most commercial banking but which is essential for innovation and strategic economic development. Economist Mariana Mazzucato explains why patient capital delivered through state-funded investment or development banks allows investors to take more risk (necessary for green innovation) as they are not required to pay dividends to private stakeholders, can meet more ‘public good’ objectives, and “can set conditions for access to their capital in an effort to maximise economic or social value to their home country.” 
• National investment banks. The UK is unique among major advanced economies in not having a national investment bank. Advocates argue that such a bank would increase investment in innovation and support major mission-focused industrial transformations, such as building a green economy. UCL's Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose has examined the role which publicly-owned investment banks have played in a variety of countries to provide patient finance for innovation and business development, and proposed the creation of a UK National Investment Bank. The centre-right think tank Onward has also called for the establishment of a national investment bank, arguing that this could unlock £16 billion in capital for investment in small and medium sized businesses, municipal infrastructure and project finance to level up lagging regions. The Scottish Government established the Scottish National Investment Bank in 2020.  
• Improving the UK Infrastructure Bank (UKIB). The UKIB is an Arm’s Length Body of HM Treasury, but is on track to deliver “barely a fifth of the financial support the European Investment Bank provided before Brexit” and is set to miss its annual investment target according to a recent report by the OBR. The UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Policy’s Thomas Marois analysed how the UKIB compares with other national infrastructure banks in Germany and Canada. The author notes the “remarkably little” investment given to the bank by HMT (£1.5bn annually) and a “fraught public-private partnership strategy that often costs taxpayers more while delivering less.” He concludes that the new bank is “anchored to past ‘market-failure’ approaches rather than a future where public banks, public purpose, and citizen engagement provide credible and innovative solutions to green and just transitions for people and planet.”
• More resources. Read our resource bank page for more on public finance institutions that can support economic development and another on how to rethink finance for business investment.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become an increasingly important technology that has impacted the economy and jobs in various ways. Or at least that’s what OpenAI’s artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT told us when we asked it to summarise the effect of AI on the economy and jobs.

‍

The chatbot isn’t wrong about its increasing importance. Over recent months, ChatGPT and similar services have made headlines as students and civil servants alike have attempted to outsource complex tasks to this type of artificial intelligence.

‍

So what are these “various ways” that rapidly developing AI technology are impacting the economy and jobs? And can regulation really solve the issues it presents? 

‍

White paper on regulation. Last month, the Government published a white paper detailing “plans for implementing a pro-innovation approach to AI regulation”. Central to the proposals is an ambition for the UK to be a science and technology “superpower” with AI identified as one of five key technologies in this effort. However, the proposed regulatory frameworks are “underpowered” and risk “leaving prominent AI harms unaddressed”, warns the Ada Lovelace Institute.

• Old regulations, new technologies. Artificial intelligence is by no means new, the term itself is well over half a century old, and yet the regulations around its development and use are still in their infancy. This is particularly alarming in the context of the drive to create AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), and the potential imminent arrival of  “God-like AI”, as argued by AI investor Ian Hogarth recently. This iteration of AI, of which some argue OpenAI’s ChatGPT and DeepMind’s GATO are precursors, “learns and develops autonomously, that understands its environment without the need for supervision and that can transform the world around it”. But the issue of regulation isn’t just about the future, it's about how the tools that exist now are being integrated into our lives. The Government’s White Paper, which includes a consultation that is open until the 21st June of this year, does seek views on the topic of general-purpose AI “for future action”. However, as it stands, the white paper relies heavily on existing regulatory frameworks and expects not to implement the new AI framework or assess its effectiveness for at least a year. As noted by the Ada Lovelace institute, this rapidly developing area of technology is already being “deployed in high-stakes contexts such as recruitment and healthcare”. 

‍

AI and work. The adoption of AI in workplace settings is one of the frontiers of this debate on adequate oversight and regulation. A reliance on AI for “hiring, firing, pay and promotion” could make workers in several sectors increasingly vulnerable, according to the TUC, with the TUC’s Kate Bell describing the Government’s white paper as “flimsy” at its AI@work conference yesterday. Recruitment in particular has been identified as a key area in which harms may already be present and must be addressed much more quickly than the expected timeline would allow. According to the TUC, AI systems are already being used “to draw conclusions from candidates’ facial expressions and their tone of voice in video interviews”. The Ada Lovelace institute argues that key risks in recruitment are either not covered by regulation or are covered by “a patchwork of regulators”. For example, it is unclear that any regulator is responsible for ensuring that AI videos used in recruitment processes are used transparently. A lack of “statutory backing” and “adequate resourcing for regulators” are also identified as key risks for monitoring the use of AI in these areas.

• Power and control. Ultimately, unions are exercised about AI because it has the potential to blur lines of accountability and power relationships in the workplace. Decisions will be being made about workers based on algorithms that often have very little transparency, and are barely understood by the managers and HR departments adopting them. In response, unions are arguing for new laws and regulations, such as the expansion of collective bargaining rights to include employee data, and for clear accountability for decisions made by AI so they can be challenged. 
• Job losses. Of course, the impact of AI on work is about the availability of jobs as well. A new study has found that around 80% of the workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs (Large Language Models which includes Generative Pre-Trained Transformers like ChatGPT), and approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. Research by Goldman Sachs found that AI could replace up to 300 million jobs across the UK and Europe. The report also found that 46% of tasks in administrative and 44% in legal professions could be automated. 

‍

So what happens next? The response to the Government’s white paper has focused on regulation, with hopes that promptly updated regulatory frameworks with proper statutory oversight and resources could mitigate existing and emerging harms. While this is needed and can be helpful in protecting existing workers and job seekers, wider structural concerns about the impact on the job market must be addressed. Speaking in a US context, the founder of Stealth Startup JB Rubinovitz argues that governments “need to start building safety nets now”.

• Rights at work. In addition to specific new rights and regulations referenced above, there is a more old-fashioned point about power dynamics which needs to be considered every time there is a new technology or development promising to ‘disrupt’ work. With union membership and collective bargaining coverage still at relatively low levels, large amounts of the UK workforce have limited ability to shape or control the way that AI will interact with their working life, leaving them vulnerable to redundancy or even practices like ‘fire and rehire’ which might be deployed by employers in response to AI changing job roles. Extending both union membership and collective bargaining coverage is key if workers are going to have more of a voice in shaping the future of AI at work.
• Social Security. Another aspect is the ability of the social security system to cope with the impact that AI might have on the labour market. One issue is whether the social security system is robust enough to ensure people's incomes in and out of work can’t drop below a certain threshold, meaning calls for reform could gain traction. Another issue is churn, where ideas such as a new system of employment insurance to help give workers more resilience to bounce back quicker from periods of unemployment could gain momentum.‍
• Working time. Finally, it is worth asking the question of whether the productivity gains from the introduction of AI into the workplace should not be realised in the form of more leisure time for workers. That’s what Oxford economist Carl Benedikt Frey thinks - arguing that "Any technology that increases productivity, ChatGPT included, makes a shorter workweek more feasible.”

Good morning from New Economy Brief.‍

‍

The Inflation Reduction Act in the US has put pressure on governments across the world to ramp up their efforts to develop their own green economy. 

‍

The ‘Washington Consensus’ of free trade is dying. State-aid rules, a cornerstone of the EU’s single market, are being relaxed as Western governments move towards state-directed reindustrialisation and decarbonisation.

‍

But where does this leave the UK government and how could they catch up in the 'green arms race'?

‍

The green arms race. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the US has catalysed a ‘green arms race’ across the Western world, with many governments pledging billions in public investment to compete for private capital and grow their domestic low-carbon economies. Governments are moving away from the ‘Washington Consensus’ of free trade in favour of state-directed reindustrialisation, with the IRA offering tax breaks for businesses that invest in low-carbon manufacturing and for consumers who buy electric vehicles which have materials sourced in the supply chain from North America. The EU has responded with its own Green Deal Industrial Plan (GDIP) and loosened state-aid restrictions to allow for more state intervention by member states to develop low-carbon economies and diversify critical supply chains within the EU.

• ‘Made in America’: Reshoring US manufacturing jobs. The Biden Administration has pledged $369bn in tax breaks for companies investing in low carbon manufacturing if they have ‘local content requirements’, where goods are assembled or sourced domestically. The aim is that many businesses utilise the subsidies and reshore to the US so that around 90% of domestic demand could come from domestic manufacturing supply chains by 2030 and bring millions of good quality jobs with them. Households can also receive up to $28,500 in up-front incentives to switch to lower carbon appliances, electric vehicles and install energy efficient upgrades. More than 100 climate, energy and environmental investments in the IRA have been estimated to create more than 9 million jobs in the US over the next decade. In the seven months since the IRA passed, clean energy companies have announced over 100,000 new jobs across 31 US states with investments totalling $89.5 billion - nearly 10 times more jobs have been created there in the last 7 months than have been created in the UK’s low carbon and renewable economy over the last 7 years.
• Job quality was important for political support. The scale of investment is novel in US climate policy, but the legislation also unites climate and trade union agendas through requirements for green jobs to pay ‘prevailing wages’, apprenticeships, access to affordable childcare and other benefits to receive certain tax credits. International Climate Policy Expert Mary Hellmich explains the political context for this: “American support for climate action depends on these policies leading to well-paying, union jobs, in addition to the achievement of climate targets. Thus, the inclusion of domestic content and labor provisions in the IRA were critical to the legislation’s passage; without them, there would be no climate bill in the US.”

‍

Green protectionism and the end of the ‘Washington Consensus’. This new ‘interventionist moment’ should be seen as part of an international competition to develop low-carbon technologies by the world’s major economies. China currently holds at least 60% of the world's manufacturing capacity for technologies such as solar, wind and batteries and holds “a near-monopoly on the production of many minerals critical for low-carbon technologies”. The Western world now wants these jobs and industries back, and governments are prepared to go against the norms established in the era of globalisation and use state-directed green industrial development on a huge scale to shelter their own nascent sectors and secure domestic supply chains. (Angela Nagle provides a great overview of the economic history of protectionism and situates the green industrial strategy race in a geopolitical context.)

• The EU’s response. The EU has noted ‘at least nine points’ in the IRA which could be regarded as a breach of international trade rules; in particular, the stipulation for local content requirements are incompatible with World Trade Organisation rules which are supposed to be agnostic about where products are made. Because the IRA is likely to attract private investment and industry away from the European economies and towards the US, the European Commission has responded with its Green Deal Industrial Plan (GDIP) to get at least 40% of the EU’s low-carbon technologies - such as solar panels and heat pumps - produced within its borders by 2030. The EU 's goal is to avoid dependency on any single nation outside of the EU for more than 65% of any one critical raw material by 2030 - which has already reportedly “sent renewables shares plummeting” in the Chinese low-carbon industry.
• Developing the European green economy. The GDIP will be accompanied by Net-Zero Industry Act to “identify goals for net-zero industrial capacity and provide a regulatory framework suited for its quick deployment”, a Critical Raw Materials Act to reduce dependency on imported materials and diversify domestic and sustainable supply of materials such as lithium and rare earth metals needed for electric vehicles and wind turbines, and a loosening of state-aid rules to allow EU member nations to channel more public funds into critical minerals extraction. This latter change has been described by experts as “nothing short of a paradigm shift in EU State Aid law…The EU now leaves the achievement of its climate targets to the willingness and ability of the Member States to subsidise companies in support of accelerating the rollout of renewable energy, the decarbonisation of industrial production processes and accelerated investments in sectors strategic for the transition towards a net-zero economy.”  

‍

“The British way.” Whilst the UK’s formal response to the IRA is scheduled to be announced in the Autumn, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has written in the Times warning against a protectionist “distortive” global subsidy race and says “Britain will not go “toe-to-toe” with the United States and the European Union by offering billions in green subsidies and tax breaks.” Hunt said the UK response will instead focus on private investment and a “pro-growth regulatory regime…this is ‘the British way’”. 

• Green day. The government released 44 climate and energy related documents on ‘Green Day’ last week, including a new net-zero strategy after a High Court ruling that its climate strategy was unlawful under the Climate Change Act and a carbon budget delivery plan, which showed the UK is not on track to deliver its legally-binding carbon budgets. Former President for COP26 Sir Alok Sharma MP has warned that a key test of “Green Day” last week would be whether the government’s announcements “materially accelerate significant private sector money into green technologies and green jobs in the UK”, and called for faster action to respond to US and EU incentives that are ”attracting billions and billions of private sector investment in their green energy sectors right now”. (It’s not just the US and EU though… the Canadian government also pledged an $80bn investment package in clean technology in response to the IRA.) Responding to the Government’s energy announcements on ‘Green Day’ the Executive Director of Policy for Renewable UK (the UK trade body for renewables) said: “These announcements do not go far enough to attract the investment we need in the renewable energy sector…Global competition for investment in renewable energy projects is fiercer than ever, and the UK risks falling behind and surrendering our global lead…we need much more than a “business as usual” approach to kickstart investment…Without that, we won’t land the UK-wide economic benefits of building up new clean energy supply chains, as they will go elsewhere where the investment environment is more conducive and attractive”.
• Missed opportunities. Whilst the UK government has criticised the ‘dangerous’ measures in the IRA, they have simultaneously argued that we are unable to compete with the scale of subsidies needed to attract private investment on offer in the US and EU, whilst also being “ahead of the game” on renewable energy, pointing out that the UK has the four largest offshore wind farms in the world. Critics note that much of this infrastructure is owned by foreign state-owned entities and that the wind farms are an “illustration of political failure because they should have been built by a home-based manufacturing sector”, in the words of GMB Scotland’s Peter Welsh: “The result is a situation where we have haemorrhaged the vast majority of the jobs in the manufacture of offshore wind projects to the rest of the world because we have not invested in our infrastructure and supply chains – and the public are footing this industrial failure through their bills.” (Readers might also remember the collapse of ‘flagship’ electric battery manufacturer, BritishVolt, which went into administration in January after the government refused to bring forward public funding and it failed to find a private investor to save it.)

‍

Catching up in the 'green arms race'. The UK’s drive for Net Zero is now taking place in a new context, where other nations are offering generous subsidies to develop their own green industries. What does this mean for UK policy? And can the UK really compete with the IRA? Luckily there are various lessons that the government can learn from this paradigm shift in global trade and green industrial strategy. 

• “This is not protectionism, is it patriotism”. Labour are now positioning their Green Prosperity Plan as a direct response to the IRA. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves often justifies their £28bn a year green investment pledge as a way to compete with other nations which are “taking a punt on these jobs and industries of the future”. Labour’s plans for an initial £8bn National Wealth Fund to invest in the green economy also echoes the US’s ambition to redevelop domestic industries (“made in Britain”), and similarly aim to generate returns for taxpayers. Shadow Secretary for Climate Change and Net Zero Ed Miliband outlined Labour’s approach in a speech to Green Alliance last week: “those who say we can’t be winners in that global race are wrong. We should match the ambition of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and stop moaning about it…this is the British version of the Inflation Reduction Act: 2030 zero carbon power. Action to break down the barriers in planning, grid, skills and supply chains. A new national wealth fund to invest in partnership with the private sector. And GB Energy, our new publicly-owned energy company.”‍
• Reindustrialisation and decarbonisation: lessons for the UK. IPPR’s Luke Murphy explains how the UK can use a wider policy toolkit than the US due to unique constraints within their political system, such as regulatory measures and public procurement, “but to reap the economic benefits of such measures the UK must learn from the US approach combining regulation with greater public investment and green industrial policy.” Some of the eight lessons include learning from the unprecedented certainty and policy stability that the IRA provides through its 10 year framework for tax credits (resembling the ‘critical decade’ for climate action), focusing climate action on creating good quality jobs, using conditionality to shape and bend corporate behaviour to socialise risks and rewards (e.g. through encouragements to sign collective bargaining deals with unions, offering affordable childcare for workers and ruling out share buybacks and sharing excess profits with the government), and that the UK should play a role in greening the global trade regime. (We will cover more on the international trade angle in a future Digest.)

Good Morning from New Economy Brief

‍

From Hayek to Marx, economic thinkers from across the political spectrum have long criticised the power of monopolies. But despite this consensus, are we at risk of sleep-walking into a new age of monopoly capitalism?

‍

This week’s Digest looks at the evidence about market concentration, its impacts, the emerging literature about the interaction between monopolies and inflation, and possible policy options to counter these effects.

‍

Monopoly money. “We’re now 40 years into the experiment of letting giant corporations accumulate more and more power...I believe that experiment failed.” These were the words of President Biden in 2021 announcing a new executive order on anti-trust (competition policy). It isn’t hard to see why he felt the need to sound the alarm. Researchers in the US have found that the top 0.1% of companies in America are responsible for a staggering 88% of corporate assets and 66% of sales. Campaigners Global Justice Now (GJN) argue in a new paper that this is part of a wider trend, where giant corporations have “captured the economy” through a series of mergers and acquisitions and are now exerting their power to warp global markets.

• Why does this matter? The concentration of corporate power has many warping effects. For example, concentration in the agrifood industry has led to a loss of biodiversity as giant businesses standardise crops across different regions. GJN also argue that lack of competition also creates other negative climate outcomes, for example by encouraging practices like built-in obsolescence. More profoundly, as the Balanced Economy Project put it: “Monopoly power corrupts politics, increases inequality, worsens political polarisation, stifles innovation, reduces economic growth, undermines truth and the media, benefits authoritarian rulers, and generally blocks the possibility of change.”
• Food for thought? Which markets are we talking about? Well, quite a lot of them. GJN point to Google’s 85% share of the global search engine market (93% in the UK) as an example, but draws the net more broadly, with Big Tech and Big Pharma in the spotlight. Perhaps most relevant given current economic concerns though is the global food market which has seen dramatic consolidation in recent years. The latest report from the ETC group on ‘food barons’ finds that many crucial agrifood sectors are controlled by just four to six dominant firms which “wield enormous power” over global food markets.
• Isn’t this regulated?  Not very well according to campaigners. New anti-monopoly outfit the Balanced Economy Project argue that neoliberal thought has evolved to prize ‘competitiveness’ over ‘competition’ and this has muddied the regulatory waters. For example, the government’s controversial Edinburgh Reforms embed the principle of ‘competitiveness’ in the mandate of financial regulators, which finance campaigners like the Finance Innovation Lab claim confuses the role of the regulator. In their paper, GJN also argue that regulators like the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) have been too reluctant to block mergers and acquisitions - for example Google has acquired over 200 companies since 2001. Just last week, the CMA performed a surprise u-turn to remove barriers to the acquisition of video games company Activision Blizzard by Microsoft, further consolidating the rapidly growing video games sector.

‍

Competition and inflation. That’s a pretty long charge-sheet against monopolies, but of particular interest in the current economic climate in the interaction between monopoly capitalism and inflation. A common argument in the ‘wage-price spiral’ debate is that this bout of global inflation is unlike previous price surges because the power of organised labour has been much diminished since the 1970s, meaning that collective bargaining is unlikely to drive inflation in the same way. Another aspect that has changed in recent decades is the concentration of various vital global markets, which has consolidated price-setting power into the hands of a small number of mega-corporations. Shouldn’t we also expect this to have some interaction with inflation? 

• Systemically Significant Prices. That’s what the University of Massachusetts' Isabella Weber thinks. Weber and her colleagues have argued that the current inflation phenomenon cannot be explained simply as a macroeconomic phenomenon (too much money chasing too few goods) and instead is about how changes to ‘systemically significant prices’ (like energy) can ripple through an economy. In this model, changes to these prices (often resulting from external shocks) spark responses from other businesses who have to raise prices to account for the increasing input costs, and eventually trigger a response from workers who demand higher wages. By focusing mainly on the wage-bargaining aspect, policy-makers are neglecting to tackle the root cause of the inflation.
• What has this got to do with monopolies? The interaction with market concentration is critical to understanding this kind of inflation. When small groups of firms have incredibly high price-setting power, it allows them to exploit external shocks either to raise prices further than they need to, or to keep them high long after an economic shock has abated. When these are in systemically significant sectors, like oil or food, this then has a material impact on inflation throughout the economy. The evidence of massive recent profits for commodity traders, alongside research from IPPR/Commonwealth and Unite the Union on recent profiteering suggest that some firms have been able to leverage their power in this way to make vast sums and fuel the cost of living crisis.

‍

What can we do about it? As the old joke goes, I wouldn’t start from here. Unwinding market concentration is significantly more difficult than preventing it from emerging in the first place through effective competition policy (anti-trust for American readers). As previewed in the opening to this newsletter, the Biden administration has toughened its stance towards the enforcement of anti-trust laws, appointing serious regulators and signalling a change of approach from recent decades. But effective enforcement of existing laws is unlikely to make a dent in the current situation. GJN highlight a suite of bolder policy options, such as the enforced break-up of monopolistic companies, and constraining the role of the financial giants and investment funds which lie behind so much of this concentration.

• Natural monopolies? In some cases it is almost impossible to generate real competition, which begs the question over whether these natural monopolies should be run in the private sector at all. The recent fiascos with the UK’s railway franchising model are an example of just such a problem, and famously the most profitable sector of the UK economy are the privatised power networks which have a complete monopoly over their areas and are largely owned by overseas investment funds.‍
• A new stabilisation paradigm? In respect of inflation, Weber argues that a new policy suite is needed to respond to this kind of price rise, rather than reliance on the blunt macroeconomic tools of interest rates. Central to this is the use of strategic price controls, which she argues “have tended to work in highly concentrated markets”. Citing UK and European energy price controls as examples, Weber argues that this kind of tool - once regarded as economic heresy - should be more widely deployed, especially as climate change is likely to spark waves of inflation that are similar to the one we are currently experiencing.

Good morning from New Economy Brief. 

‍

On Thursday the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide whether to continue raising interest rates or hit the pause button. Central banks have been increasing interest rates around the world in reaction to record inflation, but this blunt tool has consequences for other parts of the economy, perhaps most notable in contributing to the instability of financial institutions.

‍

In todays’ Digest we look at the debate around the MPC decision, the interaction between interest rates and other economic issues, and examine other tools which could be used to combat inflation that avoid such harmful effects.

‍

Have interest rates peaked? This Thursday the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will vote on whether to increase, maintain or reduce interest rates. Many economists have debated about whether the MPC should keep interest rates at their current level of 4% after a particularly turbulent week in financial markets. The last few weeks have also seen a remarkable public debate between MPC members about the course they should take. 

• The hawks. The February meeting of the MPC concluded with a majority vote of 7-2 to increase the Bank Rate by 0.5% to 4%, with two members voting to maintain rates at 3.5%. The ‘hawkish’ members of the MPC expressed concern that a historically tight labour market and potentially ‘sticky’ private sector wage growth above 6% “risks of greater persistence in underlying inflation” which a 0.5% hike would help address a ‘second round’ of inflation. Catherine Mann has been clear in public that she feels that more rises are necessary.
• The doves. The ‘dovish’ members of the MPC (Silvia Tenreyro and Swati Dhingra) argued that the real economy remained weak as a result of falling real incomes, that the economic downturn was affecting the labour market, and that the impacts of previous hikes are yet to have their impact, so inflation is likely to reduce “well below” 2% in the medium term, even with interest rates remaining at 3.5%. 

‍

Are rate rises harming the economy? The debate has shone a light on the effect of contractionary monetary policy on the wider economy. Economists have long argued that using interest rates to combat inflation is an imprecise tool, particularly when price rises are mostly driven by external supply shocks rather than domestic demand. Increasing the cost of borrowing and voluntarily slowing down demand in the economy on the brink of recession has a variety of adverse impacts on public debt, mortgages and the housing market, international debt repayments, business lending, unemployment and financial instability.

• They increase costs of government debt servicing... Interest rates have massive political effects as they change the cost of servicing government debt which has implications for how much ‘fiscal space’ the Treasury has to meet the Chancellor’s (self-determined) fiscal rules. These may be more political constraints than real economic constraints, but if the government is determined to meet these rules then there are real consequences for raising rates on fiscal policy. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest report noted (page 14, 1.24) that if interest rates were 1% higher (or lower) than assumed in their forecast, borrowing would cost the government £20bn (0.7% of GDP) more (or less) to service their debt in 2027-28, which “would wipe out headroom against debt falling in the higher rates scenario but would more than treble headroom in the lower rates scenario.” Thus the decision of the MPC will have a dramatic effect on the pre-election fiscal context and could scupper any government plans to ‘spend’ additional headroom on pre-election tax cuts. 
• …slow down economic growth... The OBR’s latest economic and fiscal outlook noted (page 6, paragraph 1.4) that the lower interest rate pathway was partly responsible for avoiding recession - another key factor determining the government’s narrative around the Budget. 
• …spark international debt crises... The 1980s was marked by a series of international debt crises in South America and Africa as developing economies struggled to service the higher cost of debt as creditor countries increased interest rates in response to rising inflation during the oil shocks of the 1970s. As central banks across the developed world hiked interest rates in response to recent inflation, a recent report from the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems warns that 60% of low-income countries and 30% of middle-income countries are at high risk of (or already in) debt distress as government’s struggle to service higher debt. 

‍

…and have triggered a banking crisis. A new factor has been added to the mix in recent weeks as turbulence in global financial institutions has been traced back to rising rates, prompting calls for a pause. As debt gets increasingly expensive, companies and industries that flourished in the era of super-low interest rates are more likely to default, which can lead to bank collapses. Last week Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed as higher interest rates in the US left the bank increasingly exposed and eroded the value of its long-term bond portfolio, triggering a sell-off of stocks and an international banking crisis.  Commenting on the failure of SVB, a timely peer reviewed article explains how rising interest rates erode the value of bank assets and have put “almost 190 banks at potential risk of impairment to insured depositors, with potentially $300 billion of insured deposits at risk” in the US. Tulip Siddiq, Labour’s Shadow City Minister, wrote to the Chancellor earlier this week to call for a “systemic review of the impact of interest rate rises and the wider uncertainty in the global banking system on our financial sector and economy.”

• This is also a warning against financial deregulation. The situation is unfolding rapidly, but the Finance Innovation Lab’s Jesse Griffiths explains that the reaction of central banks “shows we have a real financial crisis on our hands…only powerful state intervention can prevent the crisis spreading across the whole system” and warns against further financial deregulation. The US’ Federal Reserve also provided more lending to banks through its emergency funding programme last week than at the 2008 crisis peak. Chatham House expert Creon Butler concurs that the episode teaches us a key lesson: “Governments and financial regulators should be very cautious about relaxing regulations put in place to protect the financial system after the global financial crisis. This is as true of the UK’s desire to take advantage of post-Brexit freedoms, as it is of those in the US who see ‘excessive’ financial regulation as a constraint on growth.” (See our previous Digest on the UK government’s plan to deregulate financial services.) 

‍

Are other central banks still increasing interest rates? The Guardian’s Richard Partington reports that the SVB collapse ‘could force central banks to stop interest rate rises’. Market expectations for where the US’ Federal Reserve will peak interest rates have also dramatically reduced since SVB’s collapse (Look out for their decision at 6pm tonight). Expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) peak interest rate have also reduced, although their Governing Council still increased rates by 0.5% last week as “macroeconomic projections were finalised in early March before the recent emergence of financial market tensions”. The FT’s Delphine Strauss reviews the views of former central bankers in light of recent financial turmoil.

• Latest market projections for the UK interest rate. Even at the last MPC decision in February and before the emerging banking crisis, many brokers argued that the Bank of England shouldn’t increase UK interest rates further. Capital Economics’ Paul Dales notes that “The fact that problems in the banking system...can be traced back to the rises in global interest rates means it is natural for the MPC to become more wary about further tightening the screws.” The latest market expectations for UK interest rates have reduced since the collapse of SVB but now expect a further 0.25% rise tomorrow due to an increase in CPI to 10.4% in February (up from 10.1%) in ONS data published this morning.

‍

Reviewing the UK’s macroeconomic institutions. This is the first major inflation crisis since the Bank of England became independent in 1997, and it is reasonable to ask what lessons we can learn about the policy response to the inflation shock. Arguably, the whole episode has exposed the danger of relying almost exclusively on interest rate rises to combat inflation which is driven by external supply shocks. As economist James Meadway notes, “The primary function of a central bank… is to preserve financial stability. If this primary task conflicts with the demand that they must also try and keep inflation low, central banks should be focused on their primary function. This means, in practical terms, that the fairly useless programme of interest rate rises must be halted and support given to banks as needed.” But if we accept that aggressive rate rises have limited ability to control certain kinds of inflation, and have damaging consequences elsewhere, then what other options exist?

• Time for fiscal and monetary coordination? A working paper for CUSP explains that the current monetary and fiscal policy regime “is no longer fit for purpose and may end up hampering both the recovery from the pandemic and the transition to net zero”. They call for a greater degree of flexibility in the UK’s macroeconomic institutions (Page 22-25) so that fiscal policy can “take a more active role in managing economic activity, and for monetary policy to take consideration of public (and indeed private) debt sustainability issues when setting interest rates.”  Economists Jo Michell and Jan Toporowski argue that the Bank of England should be given an enhanced financial stability mandate requiring more explicit coordination with the Treasury, “but need not eliminate the independence of the Bank”. They argue that the pre-2008 crisis orthodoxy of inflation-targeting was “incorrectly credited for a period of macroeconomic stability that was subsequently shown to be illusory”, and review a variety of proposals for reforming monetary policy (Page 23-29) including replacing the Bank of England’s inflation targeting with a growth target, and more. The authors ultimately conclude that “the proper regulation of employment and investment in the economy is a matter of policy for Government, not the central bank.”

‍

Alternative ways of reducing inflation. The government can also reduce inflation through use of targeted fiscal policy and more active competition policy.

• Fiscal price caps. IPPR have outlined how “a less often discussed, but potentially hugely important, macro-economic policy lever is to use fiscal policy to reduce prices immediately”, such as freezing the energy price cap, which they calculated could drastically reduce inflation in the UK (written before the Truss administration implemented the Energy Price Guarantee). 
• Competition policy. Isabella Weber in the US and IPPR and Common Wealth in the UK have been problematising corporate concentration as an explanation of rising prices after the pandemic. In Prices and Profits after the Pandemic, Carsten Jung and Chris Hayes find that “While inflation is primarily being driven by global factors… surging profits by some companies could be a contributing factor to rising prices…[where] the market power of some firms could be exacerbating inflation.”IPPR’s Carys Roberts proposed the government should levy excess profit taxes to other sectors of the economy which have made windfall profits (beyond oil and gas) and use the receipts to support households and build more resilient supply chains to tackle external causes of inflation (e.g. for critical commodities). This could reduce inflationary pressure by discouraging profiteering, as research by IPPR and Commonwealth has observed.

Good morning from New Economy Brief. 

‍

Tomorrow the Chancellor will lay out his decisions on tax and spending for the coming year. 

‍

Commentators and think tanks have debated how much fiscal ‘headroom’ he has available against the fiscal rules he set himself in November, whilst pressure is mounting for additional spending across the board to help counter the effect inflation is having on household finances, wages, and departmental budgets.

‍

Can the Chancellor afford not to invest in structural solutions to the cost of living crisis? Read on for our analysis. 

‍

The ‘war chest’ replaces the ‘black hole’. The fiscal mood music around this budget is significantly more positive than it was in November for a number of reasons, with GDP more resilient than feared and positive signs that inflation is receding. This adds up to a £30bn ‘improvement’ in the public finances compared to November according to the ONS. Whereas the last fiscal event was preceded by frantic briefing about the size of the ‘fiscal black hole’, this one has been dominated by a very different kind of fiscal context. 

• How much ‘fiscal space’ does the Chancellor have? The £30bn improvement so far in 2022-23 is partly due to tax revenues being higher than expected, less borrowing by local authorities and nationalised industries, and the remainder from lower-than-anticipated government subsidies for household and company energy bills, net investment and debt interest payments. (For context, £30bn is more than enough to prevent inflation eroding the wages of every public sector worker). However an expected downward revision later in the forecast period means that, as the Institute for Fiscal Studies’s Paul Johnson argues, “Unless the [Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)] springs a pretty big forecasting surprise”, there won’t be any “money kicking around to be spent on permanent tax cuts or spending increases”. A very different perspective on the debate on the size of fiscal space comes from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) who forecast the Chancellor’s fiscal space to be far higher at £166 billion to meet Hunt’s deficit target, and £97.5bn to meet his debt target.

‍

Important economic decisions should not be based on such uncertain forecasts. As right-wing economist Julian Jessop argued: “it’s bonkers that the Treasury places such weight on projections that are known to be unreliable. This leaves very little room for Chancellors to make their own judgements.”

• “Black holes” in the public finances appear and reappear with rounding errors. This was precisely the point made by economists in the run up to the Autumn Statement, where the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) flagged that the government could actually afford to run a primary deficit of £49bn and still meet its self imposed fiscal rules (as public investment can avert a low-growth scenario and therefore reduce the government’s debt:GDP ratio), and the Progressive Economy Forum (PEF) argued that loosening the fiscal rules (as the Chancellor ended up doing) would eliminate any need to plug a “black hole” in the public finances. The idea of the ‘black hole’ set the context for the last budget in which the government announced a large programme of cuts, and yet mere months later the projections on which it was based are looking distinctly shaky.

‍

Spending pressures. Pressure is growing from Conservative voices to use the Treasury’s extra headroom to cut taxes, particularly to prevent the planned rise in corporation tax from 19% to 25% in April. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) notes that the long term economic outlook is “too ‘murky’ to wave through a bunch of tax cuts.” (Reminder: there is a lack of evidence that tax cuts generate economic growth.) However, many economists are arguing that there is a strong case for increasing government spending now in a variety of ways that could boost GDP growth and make the public finances even more resilient to future shocks. 

• The cost of living crisis is still eating away disposable incomes. The Bank of England expects inflation to fall to 4% by the end of the year, but even in this scenario, people will still be permanently poorer than last year as the cost of essentials like food (see last week’s Digest on food price inflation) and energy continues to rise faster than wages; the Energy Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) calculated that even if the government extends the Energy Price Guarantee, households will still be paying £285 more than last year. Real pay is falling steeply and in cash terms average real pay is still £110 a month below where it was in 2008. Trades Union Congress (TUC) General Secretary Paul Nowak argued the government “must put pay rises at the heart of next month’s budget” as this will increase disposable incomes and prop up demand for goods and services in the economy. They recommend giving all public service workers a real-terms pay rise, moving towards a £15 minimum wage “as soon as possible” and more. 
• Public services need investment. According to analysis by the New Economics Foundation (NEF), the government is hiding £28 billion of “stealth cuts” to public services, despite promising in the Autumn Statement to increase spending by 1% a year. This is because previous assumptions were based on low and even negative inflation in the years ahead, which seems to suggest that the Bank of England would not intervene to try and hit their 2% target. Alfie Stirling explains: “If inflation rests closer to 2% from 2024/25 onwards, the government will need to commit a further *£28bn/yr* (2022/23 prices) to preserve the real terms value of spending plans by 2027/28.” PEF recently calculated that more than half a trillion pounds have been taken out of public spending over 2010-19. A lack of investment in public services and public sector workforce that deliver them is driving workforce shortages, particularly in the NHS.
• Growing support for boosting investment. A recent editorial by the Financial Times argued that “It is time for a UK-wide growth strategy”, where “the government must boost public investment, which has proportionally been among the lowest in the OECD over the past two decades…Next week’s Budget is an opportunity to begin addressing these issues.” Various funding sources exist for ambitious plans to boost growth. Even former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers now believes “There is capacity to raise revenue from the wealthy on a quite substantial scale – far more than is politically imaginable – without doing any appreciable damage to economic growth”. A new report and video from the Social Guarantee’s Isaac Stanley explains how £92.6bn can be raised from increasing tax on wealth and passive income, taxing big businesses (especially energy companies) and through progressive consumption taxes. They propose this can fund “a limited suite of universal basic services”.
• What is expected? The pre-briefed announcements from the Budget suggest that that it will be a relatively low-key affair, with some temporary help for households in the form of an extension of the Energy Price Guarantee, some action on childcare, a refreezing of the fuel duty permafrost, and some additional spending on defence to attempt to compensate for inflationary pressures.

‍

Choices and gambles. The government story around this budget is very much ‘steady as she goes’ with the improved public finances a vindication of prudence and a mark of restored ‘stability’. The assumption of many in Westminster is that the Chancellor will attempt to ‘bank’ his additional headroom and use it to store up a “war chest” for pre-election tax cuts. This would enable a narrative going into the election that ‘the plan had worked’. Taking this approach is a choice, and it is also a big political and economic gamble. The idea that the economy has returned to ‘stability’ might be true from the perspective of the bond markets, but seems tone deaf when millions of people are finding their personal finances more unstable than ever. When people’s incomes are so insecure, can the government really afford (politically, and economically) to avoid using the fiscal space to solve the cost of living crisis?

• Stagnation nation. There is a fine line between being stable and being rudderless. There is a real risk that an empty Budget red box this week will lead the public, and investors, to conclude that Britain is closer to the latter than the former. With the USA and EU embarking on new economic strategies based on encouraging public and private investment in the green transition, and the Labour Party echoing this rhetoric, the lack of a similar vision or strategy from the UK government is all the more striking. 
• No alternative? The government’s pre-budget briefing has been that they are unable to act because any additional spending would break fiscal rules or risk fuelling greater inflation. The Stop the Squeeze campaign have released a pre-budget briefing addressing these arguments head on, and conclude that they do not stand up to scrutiny.‍
• Broken Britain. More profoundly, there is a deep sense across the country that things are going in the wrong direction. Public services are at breaking point, strikes are continuing, energy bills are still sky high, and growth is nowhere to be seen. The public, unsurprisingly, continue to put the cost of living crisis at the top of their list of concerns. From an economic point of view, deciding not to act now risks prolonging economic stagnation, deepening the crisis in public services, and leaving the UK lagging behind on green investment. From a political point of view, it risks deepening the impression that the government lacks a plan to deal with the cost of living crisis or the economy - an impression that no amount of pre-election tax cuts will be able to shake.

Why is the UK running out of certain foods? Food insecurity has climbed up the political agenda in recent weeks as five of the six largest supermarkets have started rationing vegetables. Sustain’s Vicki Hird explains that the current shortages are exposing system issues in the UK’s unsustainable and unresilient food sector, as supply chains are threatened by a combination of poor weather conditions, trade frictions and higher costs of production for growers. Tim Benton, research director of emerging risks at Chatham House, has warned about the need to “de-risk” food supply chains in an increasingly insecure world.  

• Extreme weather is reducing harvests. Economist James Meadway explains how extreme weather events are reducing harvests across the world and continue to drive up food prices. Extreme heat in Europe last year reduced potato and sugar beet harvests by up to 50% in Britain. The supply of other home-grown vegetables are also being threatened as extreme weather reduced harvests of leeks by “between 15 and 30 per cent”. The President of the National Farmers’ Union warned the domestic farming sector will struggle to adapt to more extreme weather and higher input costs, leaving the UK more reliant on food imports and more vulnerable to supply chain disruption.

‍

Food supply shocks will exacerbate global hunger... The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report on climate impacts explains how the climate crisis poses an acute threat to global food supplies, which has severe consequences for global hunger and security. The World Food Programme estimates that the number of people facing acute food insecurity more than doubled from 135 million people before the pandemic to 345 million, mostly in poorer countries.

• …worsen food poverty in the UK… In richer countries, populations will face rising prices with more instances of shortages. Increasing numbers of people are already struggling to put food on the table due to the rising cost of living. The Independent Food Aid Network is already reporting record increases in demand for UK food banks, with 80% of food aid providers reporting a “significant number of people needing help for the first time” and half of the organisations surveyed saying that “if demand increased, they would have to reduce the level of support they could provide or turn people away”.
• …and profiteers will generate windfalls. In this context, the spotlight is falling on those people and organisations within the food system who are benefitting from food inflation and shortages. Last year, Oxfam’s Profiting from Pain report found that “62 new food billionaires have been created” as the largest food corporations receive windfalls from a 30% increase in global food prices over the previous 2 years. Greenpeace’s new report on food profiteering since the pandemic has found that 20 of the world’s biggest food corporations (in the grain, fertiliser, meat and dairy sectors) gave $53.5bn to their shareholders in the last two financial years. The report shows how the 20 companies control supply chains for food itself, and information about those supplies, which fuels commodity speculation.

‍

Creating a sustainable, nutritious and resilient food supply. Just as energy inflation led to greater scrutiny of UK energy resilience, recent food shortages have prompted a wider debate about creating more nationally self-sufficient food supplies. The idea is that by restructuring the food system, it is possible to both keep food affordable whilst also ensuring better outcomes for farmers, the natural environment and public health. This will require moving away from the dominant globalised model that promotes vertically integrated monopolies which control most of the supply chain. In the current business model, UK farmers receive less than 1% of the profit made on key items like sliced bread, beef burgers, carrots and cheese, according to analysis from Sustain. Alongside strong regulation to stop abuse in supply chains, greater support is needed for domestic growers to be able to invest in agroecological production and new technologies to improve resilience and reduce exposure to import price shocks.

• Food sovereignty. Food sovereignty is an alternative to the export-led model of food production and consumption dominated by multinational corporations. Food sovereignty goes beyond food security and is underpinned by six principles: providing food for people; valuing food providers; localising food systems; centring local control; building knowledge and skills; and working with nature. The Landworkers’ Alliance (LWA) argue that a food sovereignty movement in the UK would allow for diversity of production rather than relying on ‘cash mono-crops’ and “offers an opportunity for us to restructure our food system from one which is profit-oriented to one which is designed to help both people and the natural environment.”
• Democratising ownership and taking back control of the food system. Rob Booth outlines an alternative future for agriculture in the UK and worldwide for Common Wealth. This redistributes power and “puts producers and citizens, rather than agri-business, in control of food systems”, by encouraging democratic ownership models such as cooperatives and community land trusts. The Welsh Government’s proposed changes to agricultural support after Brexit have the potential to encourage agroecological farming and increase food sovereignty by moving towards a more resilient system based on small and medium scale farms producing a wide diversity of food for domestic markets. (LWA and Shared Assets have outlined a series of case studies showcasing good practice in Wales.)
• Supporting growers through international, national and local policy change. Greenpeace, La Via Campesina and others call for “a legally binding global treaty coherent with the Articles of the UN Declaration on the Rights of Peasants and Other People Working in Rural Areas” to reduce the influence of agri-business models in the international trade order which exploit cheap labour and encourage profiteering. Common Wealth’s Rob Booth outlines the national level policies, local actions and legislative changes (a Right to Food) needed to transform food supply chains in the UK.

The five missions of a Labour government. Leader of the Opposition Sir Keir Starmer explained Labour’s “statement of intent to how we intend to govern” through five missions, which will likely form the backbone of their election manifesto. Their priorities are: securing the highest sustained growth in the G7, a zero-carbon electricity system in Britain by 2030, an NHS “fit for the future”, making Britain’s streets safe and breaking down barriers to opportunity (through childcare and education reform).

• Ending ‘sticking plaster politics’. Starmer argues that a “mission-driven government” is required to end what he called ‘sticking-plaster politics’ in his New Years speech; a term to describe the government’s consistent failure to solve complex challenges plaguing the UK economy due to being overly focused on short term solutions to neutralise immediate political challenges. For instance, Starmer quoted the energy price freeze as “an expensive, last-minute fix” for the cost of living crisis, “papering over cracks in our energy security that have been on display for years”.
• Light on detail? The speech has had a mixed reception, with some criticism that it is ‘light on detail’ or that it doesn’t constitute a ‘retail offer’ for voters at the next election. In fairness to Labour, they have said that they will be fleshing out these missions between now and the election, and as former Labour advisor Tom Hamilton argues, the missions will not necessarily form the basis of the ‘pledge card’. 
• The benefits of a ‘mission-led’ approach. IPPR’s George Dibb explains why we need ‘missions’ to drive the UK’s economic renewal: “A mission should provide a clear and measurable goal that shapes the action of a government. It should be an ambition that different parts of government can align around and provide a clear steer for collaboration and partnership between business and government.” 

‍

Clarifying Labour’s new role for the state. The mission-led approach has received some criticism for being ambiguous about the role of state intervention in markets, which some argue risks an overreliance on private sector delivery. Starmer said he is “not concerned about whether investment or expertise comes from the public or private sector - I just want to get the job done…Mission-driven government is a different way altogether. Not state control or pure free markets, but a genuine partnership”. Interestingly, the refrain of “get the job done” seems to echo the New Labour slogan“what matters is what works”, but with an important difference: in the late 1990s this apparent ambivalence between public and private sectors was used to justify more market involvement in public services, whereas Starmer is using the phrase to justify more state involvement in markets.

• Concerns about a ‘partnership approach’. Private Eye’s Solomon Hughes questioned whether Starmer’s approach goes far enough to ensure the state has a “firm element of control, so public investment doesn’t just flow into private profit” IPPR’s George Dibb argued that “putting in place structures to guarantee public return on public investment is essential” through policies such as a citizen’s wealth fund, state purchasing of equity stakes in businesses through a British Business Bank or UK Investment Bank type structure, or public ownership of public intellectual property. 
• Ensuring government shapes (and doesn’t just serve) markets. To be fair to Starmer, his speech argued that “there is a massive role for the private sector in mission-driven government but if the aspiration is merely to replace the public sector while extracting a rent to privatise the profits, while socialising the risk, that takes us nowhere”. Labour has also already announced policies like a citizens’ wealth fund and a publicly-owned energy generator, but Global Justice Now’s Nick Dearden argues “Starmer will need to go much further…state support must require business to behave very differently” through stronger use of conditionality, pointing to the Inflation Reduction Act in the US as an example of good practice in market shaping. IPPR’s George Dibb also argued that government support should also depend on firms' tax affairs, union recognition, dividends and share buybacks policy and more, as, ultimately “missions are an important part of the puzzle but can't do it alone. Missions have little to say to questions of ownership and power. That's why they have to be combined with other structural & institutional reform”, such as strong competition policy to avoid rent extraction.

‍

The transformative potential of a mission-oriented government. Missing from much of the commentary around the speech has been a sense of what it means for Labour to be thinking and talking in the language of ‘missions’- with little distinction being drawn between Labour’s ‘missions’ and the government’s five targets. But missions are much more than just targets. A mission-oriented approach to solve ‘grand challenges’ such as climate change is a seminal part of new economic thinking. The idea of using government to explicitly steer the direction of economic activity to achieve ‘missions’ was popularised by Mariana Mazzucato, founder and Director of the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose. By making strategic investments in particular sectors, such as green industries, an active industrial strategy from an ‘entrepreneurial state’ can kick-start the development and take-up of new technologies, develop new markets for UK companies, trigger greater private sector investment, and tackle major environmental challenges. 

• Labour is tapping into the new global consensus. The ‘Asian Tiger’ experience is often referred to as an example of how governments can steer the direction of growth and technological development to support domestic competitive sectors in the direction of desired goals, e.g. the Tiawanese government directly steered universities and firms R&D processes to become a global hub for computer chip exporting. Moving away from a laissez faire approach to economic development has been an emerging global consensus for years: 84 countries (accounting for 90% of global GDP) adopted formal industrial policies between 2013-2018. It is also important to note that the recent Conservative government has had a stop-start relationship with industrial policy, including policies such as the National Security and Investment Act, the British Business Bank’s Future Fund and the Advanced Research and Invention Agency. 
• Giving business what they want? While some might suggest that this emphasis on the role of the state to design economic objectives might be unwelcome to businesses- in fact this is exactly what many business leaders have been calling for. The CBI’s Tony Danker has been vocal in criticising the lack of economic direction from recent governments and the absence of a sense of partnership between state and private sector on joint challenges. Danker’s call for a long-term ‘economic vision’ isn’t a million miles away from the ‘missions’ approach Labour has set out.‍
• “Seize the interventionist moment”. The FT’s Martin Wolf recently warned that “the new interventionism could pose a threat to global trade”, referencing how Joe Biden’s plan for creating a domestic green industrial base centred around electric vehicle manufacturing has put the US at the centre of a major trade dispute with the EU and UK. However, Global Justice Now’s Nick Dearden argues “we should defend policies that allow all countries to develop their own industrial strategies to build fairer, more sustainable economies…it is the trade rules that need to give”. Economist James Meadway also notes that the EU’s “decades of dogged commitment to free-market rules are being shredded with surprising speed” and state-aid rules are “on the verge of being weakened” to allow more government subsidies and public ownership in the single market. It is in this context that “Labour has an important political opportunity to seize the interventionist moment and define its terms for Britain”.

‍More workers are leaving the workforce since the pandemic. The Chancellor is reportedly focussing the March 15th Budget on reducing the amount of people on sickness related benefits and boosting employment, amid growing concern about record numbers of people on long-term sickness and the effect of declining labour force participation on economic growth.

• Why are workers leaving the workforce? Labour market participation has fallen markedly since the pandemic and has not returned to its pre-pandemic level. One important reason for this is the rise of individuals with long-term ill health, with a rise in economic inactivity particularly concentrated in older age groups, women with children and those affected by rising ill-health and disability. The Resolution Foundation’s new research on the drivers of economic inactivity finds that 460,000 more working-age people have become economically inactive due to long-term sickness since the start of the pandemic (now 2.5 million in late 2022).

‍

‘Sick-note Britain’: the sticking plaster response? The government’s mooted response is a classic mix of carrots and sticks, most of which are targeted firmly at the symptoms rather than the causes of this issue. The Telegraph reports that the government is considering “a new approach to how GPs decide whether people are too sick to work” and telling doctors to “sign fewer people off work with sick notes and instead help them to remain in employment under plans being considered for next month’s Budget.” Other ideas under consideration to encourage older people back to work are: putting work coaches in GP surgeries so doctors can refer older patients who express interest in getting a job to them for advice, giving early retirees financial advice “with many set to be told that they do not have enough cash to see them through life” and encouraging pension companies to offer more ‘mid-life MoTs’. But is this the best way to stop people leaving the workforce? (The Resolution Foundation's Torsten Bell explains why the government's ideas won't work.)

• NHS crisis. One solution which seems to be firmly in the ‘too difficult box’ is actually fixing the crisis in the NHS, and particularly with waiting lists for elective surgery, which lie behind some of these numbers. For economic arguments about how increasing investment in the NHS can reduce long term sickness and increase participation and productivity in the economy, read our previous Digest on reducing the NHS backlog. 
• Elephant in the room. Another issue which is off the table for now is any serious attempt to reform the UK’s migration system in order to encourage more economic migration. Again, this is an issue we have covered previously in our Digest on the economics of migration post-Brexit.
• All about tax. The Resolution Foundation has proposed a solution firmly in the ‘stick’ category this week, urging the government to scrap lucrative tax breaks which they argue are causing workers to seek early retirement. They make the point that these tax breaks are highly regressive, and make it much less attractive for wealthy older workers to stay in work.

‍

What about work itself? Often missing from this debate on workforce participation is any consideration whether work itself might be part of the problem. With workers often being asked to work longer hours, for less real terms pay, and fewer employment protections than previously, it is surely worth considering whether the focus should be trying to improve the experience of work, rather than attempting to nudge reluctant workers back into jobs that make them ill or unhappy. Perhaps the most transformative proposal in this space is the campaign for a four day working week, which has released some new data this week. Surveys have shown “consistently” growing public support for a four-day week since the beginning of the pandemic. So could reducing the length of the working week be an innovative solution to falling workforce participation?

• World’s largest 4 day week trial a “huge success”. Over a 6 month period, more than 3,300 workers from 70 UK companies from a wide range of sectors took part in the world’s largest four-day week trial. Participants worked 80% of the time for 100% of their pay, in exchange for a commitment to maintain at least 100% productivity. The results? Business revenue increased, whilst mental and physical health both experienced improvements. Job retention “dramatically improved” as employees were 57% less likely to quit and there was a 65% reduction in the number of sick days. 92% of businesses decided to continue with the 4 day week after the experiment. (See our previous Digest for more background on the 4 day working week proposal, our Resource bank page on reducing working time, and follow the European Network for the Fair Sharing of Working Time’s newsletter for developments in working time reduction across Europe.)
• Improving working conditions helps job retention. Firms have been increasingly using the four day week to attract and retain more staff whilst the labour market remains tight. Autonomy and PIRC’s research from 2021 found that 3 in 4 FTSE 100 companies cite labour shortages or staff retention issues as a principal risk to their business. Over 40% of workers surveyed reported that they considered leaving their job, with low pay, long working hours and poor mental health cited as reasons for dissatisfaction. When surveyed, workers reported that higher pay, better in-work benefits and shorter hours for the same pay would prevent resignation. The Women’s Budget Group found that shorter working time leads to a more equal distribution of unpaid housework and caring responsibilities (overwhelmingly undertaken by women) and can help women increase their earnings and reduce the gender pay gap. 
• The importance of flexible working. Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s Helen Barnard argues that the government’s chosen method to draw workers back into the labour market should “look beyond the familiar tools of work coach meetings and benefit conditions”, and instead, focus on facilitating more flexible working conditions across the economy. A recent ONS survey of over 50s has found that 59% of early retirees would not consider returning to work, but of those who would, flexible working arrangements would be required. (See another previous Digest for an explanation of why using benefit sanctions to fill labour shortages doesn’t work.) The Resolution Foundation’s Louise Murphy argues that, “Instead of persuading older workers to ‘unretire’, Government efforts to boost Britain’s workforce should focus on supporting more mothers into work and helping older workers and those with a disability stay in work.”

Profiteering from volatile energy prices. Record profits from the UK’s two largest oil majors led media headlines in recent weeks, as fossil fuel giants continue to benefit from the global energy crisis. We know where these profits are coming from, but where are they going? And with a form of windfall tax already in place, what more can be done to ensure more of this windfall is diverted into alleviating the cost of living crisis facing ordinary households?

• Follow the money. First, the facts. Common Wealth calculated that Shell made £32bn profit in 2022 - 107% more than the previous year and the largest in the companies 115 year history - as fossil fuel companies continue to reap windfall benefits from higher wholesale gas prices. £20bn (62%) of Shell’s profit was extracted by private shareholders, 7.5 times more than their investment in ‘low carbon’. Similarly, BP made £23bn across 2022 and have announced a new round of share buybacks - where a company buys more of its own stock to artificially inflate its value on the stock exchange - taking the total buybacks to £9.35bn. (And no, this isn’t paying our pensions. UK pension funds only own 0.2% of Shell and BP’s shares, so these payouts arguably aren’t benefiting ‘average pensioners’.) 
• Why is this a problem? The reason these profits have sparked such outrage is partly because of the scale, but mainly because they are not the result of anything these companies have done. They truly are a ‘windfall’- a boon for companies due to factors outside their control- and are being paid for directly by high energy prices facing consumers. 
• It’s a Net Zero issue. Common Wealth’s Mat Lawrence explains that “the ability to control the economic surplus and decide on the direction of investment” is critical for creating a net zero carbon energy system needed for the UK’s 2035 target. For instance, BP has since reduced its pledge to cut emissions and planned “a greater production of oil and gas over the next seven years compared with previous targets.” 

‍

What can the government do about profiteering? Labour has been calling for a stricter windfall tax in response to capture some of the unearned rents and use it to fund household support for the rising cost of living. Last year, Tax Justice UK modelled how a 95% tax on excess profits could raise £12.9bn instead of the £5bn planned in the government's original estimates. But other policies also exist which can disincentivise profiteering and other extractive behaviours from taking hold in the economy.

• Taxing share buybacks of energy companies. If we want the oil giants to genuinely invest in the green transition then it would make sense to disincentivise other possible uses of their windfall profits like share buybacks. Taxing these buybacks would also raise revenue that could be used to fund additional cost of living support. IPPR and Common Wealth have calculated that a tax on BP and Shell’s buybacks could raise nearly £5bn a year. IPPR’s George Dibb argues that share buybacks are “a symptom of a firm that can identify no productive investments beyond boosting their own value.” Shreya Nanda explained why share buybacks are part of a wider cycle of business failure in this thread.

‍

Publicly-owned energy companies? Nationalisation has been a topic of discussion in relation to the energy system ever since privatisation, and it is no surprise that the scale of these profits should spark the conversation again. However, unlike public ownership of energy retail companies or the energy networks, nationalisation of the oil majors is complicated by the risk of passing over billions in stranded assets onto the taxpayer. (Progressive Britain’s Tom Collinge argues that nationalisation may be too expensive for the current energy crisis, but energy security “cannot be left to the market”, and nationalisation must be recognised as “a long term, structural, solution to long term, structural problems.”)

• Setting up new energy generators. Labour’s plan for creating Great British Energy (GB Energy) does not involve nationalising any existing companies. Instead, GB Energy would enter the market as an energy producer that would compete with private firms. Though operationally independent, GB Energy would have a mandate to invest in clean energy, which it could do individually or in partnership with the private sector. Labour hopes that GB Energy would be able to make riskier investments, such as new tidal technology or modular reactors, that the private sector may often “shy away from”. Common Wealth’s Mat Lawrence said that public ownership of energy was “superior and more affordable” due to the state’s ability to invest in clean energy technology at lower rates and the fact that it would not have to consider shareholder interests. TUC research has found that “If the UK today had a public energy champion like EDF (France), EnBW (Germany), or Vattenfall (Sweden), the UK government could use the excess profits made – equivalent to between £2,250 and £4,400 per UK household – to reduce bills and accelerate home insulation roll-out.”

‍

Profiteering throughout the UK energy system. Profiteering is not just limited to energy generation. Common Wealth’s latest explainer details how profit is extracted at every stage of the UK’s privatised supply chain through extraction, generation, transmission, distribution and supply. Nationalisation could be more fruitful in natural monopolies of energy transmission and distribution.

• Energy transmission and distribution. The National Grid owns and operates long-distance transmission infrastructure and charges a “network cost” on household bills. Other research by Common Wealth found that the business paid investors nearly £9bn in dividends and share buybacks schemes in the last five years. The government has already planned to partly nationalise the National Grid (a division called the Electricity System Operator) to give the government more control over “the challenges posed by decarbonisation.” However, the rest of the National Grid will continue to be owned shareholders (which counts the fund managers BlackRock, Vanguard and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority among its top five shareholders).
• Energy distribution. Electricity is regionally distributed along network infrastructure owned and operated by Distribution Network Operators who also charge for “network costs”. Common Wealth briefing finds that the Gas Distribution Networks and Distribution Network Operators “enjoy the highest profit margins of any sector in the UK” and “in the case of both gas and electricity distribution, just a small collection of companies have more than 90 percent market shares”. 

‍

Tackling profiteering in the rest of the economy. Profiteering is not limited to the energy system either. Unite’s Profiteering Commission accused many FTSE 350 companies of price gouging and argued that profiteering pushed a ‘second round’ of inflation last year: “This isn’t just about oil companies or a few “bad apples”. Even excluding energy firms, FTSE 350 company profits increased by 42% between 2019 and 2021.”

• E.g. housebuilding. The FT’s Jonathan Eley notes that “UK housebuilders’ profitability [are] no less remarkable than BP’s returns” as the UK’s largest housebuilder, Barratt Developments, reported similar returns as BP but paid a far lower tax rate. Dividends paid by the largest nine housebuilders rose from an aggregate of £400 million around the time of the financial crisis to £1.8 billion in 2017. (See this peer reviewed article for evidence of value extraction amongst the UK’s major housebuilders.) ‍
• Taxing share buybacks. IPPR calculated FTSE 100 companies announced £55bn share buybacks in 2022, and that a 25% tax on them could raise £13.5bn a year. They also note that President Biden recently introduced a share buyback tax to discourage price gouging and help alleviate the cost of living crisis in the US.

Context. What does it mean cover fiscal policy ‘impartially’? And is the BBC currently doing so? That was the question the BBC sought to answer last week when it published a long-awaited report examining its coverage of taxation, public spending, government borrowing and debt which found that the broadcaster’s coverage of fiscal policy had at times “put impartiality at risk”. The report was published as part of a 10-point impartiality plan which includes “thematic reviews” of BBC coverage of key areas of public debate. This first thematic review, led by former Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Andrew Dilnot and journalist Michael Blastland, spoke to over 100 people from both within and outside of the BBC and reviewed 11,000 piece of relevant BBC online, TV and radio content (focusing closely on 1,000 pieces of content). Back in 2020, 24 leading economists wrote a letter to the BBC, criticising its “inappropriate” use of language in covering the 2020 Spending Review, particularly highlighting then political editor Laura Kuenssberg’s analogy of a “maxed out” “credit card” to describe public finances. It was allegedly this letter that prompted the BBC to reflect on its economic reporting, and in February 2022, the review was commissioned. In addition, there has been a long-running critique of fiscal policy coverage by Oxford Professor Simon Wren-Lewis (an economist who coined the term 'media-macro'). He has published his response here.

‍

Findings and recommendations. 

• Economic literacy. The review found that “too many journalists lack understanding of basic economics or lack confidence reporting it”. It highlighted that debt was a particular area of concern, finding that journalists often “feel instinctively that debt is simply bad, full stop, and don’t appear to realise this can be contested and contestable”.
• Policy is political. The report warned of “the language of necessity”, arguing that the BBC sometimes fails to make it clear that policy decisions are political choices, not inevitable outcomes. It found that by presenting fiscal policy decisions as necessary measures, the BBC can at times stray “perilously close to policy endorsement”. Repeating a phrase such as “fiscal rules” without the caveat of its political roots, for instance, blurs the line between economics and political choice. A “rule” might sound necessary or even scientific, but ultimately, the report acknowledges, “fiscal rules are only rules because the government of the day chooses to call them that... they’re not rules because some natural law dictates it” and should be reported as such.
• Beware the household metaphor. Picking up on themes from the 2020 economists’ letter, the review warned of the implications of certain metaphors and comparisons. In particular, it highlighted the danger of comparing the state and its budget to a household and how such analogies can be misleading: “states don’t tend to retire or die, or pay off their debts entirely”. Likewise, it warned of “tempting” and “pithy” phrases such as ‘pay off’ or ‘pay down’ when discussing debt which, in the case of a state’s finances, are contested concepts. ‘Headroom’, ‘wiggle room’ and asking if numbers “add up” were also examples given of potentially contested terms.
• A little more economics, a little less politics, please. The review found that politics can “distort economic reporting” and that a heavy focus on political angles can lead journalists to “miss or misunderstand or underweight economic perspectives”. It urged the BBC to look beyond the “Westminster frame” and the “politically salient”. It also warned journalists to resist “hype”, and urged them not to “buy” that something is a “big deal” just because a politician says it is. 
• Regional representation. Impartiality isn’t just about left vs. right. It’s also about what - and who - gets left out of the picture. The report found that by omitting coverage of particular economic topics, certain communities were underrepresented in the issues covered. The issue of VAT was given as an example: “In Wales, more VAT is paid than income tax, ditto North East England" meaning that failure to account for this means "the tax interest of the better-off gets more attention".
• Widen the pool. The report urged the BBC to widen its pool of contributors, suggesting that at times it can “subcontract judgement about what’s reasonable or impartial to a few established names like the Bank of England, the OBR, the IFS or the Resolution Foundation, however respected”. It suggests that “recent concern” about amplifying “fringe views” is indeed a concern but that there is also a “risk the other way, of accepting too narrow a consensus and excluding reasonable opinion”. 
• Accessibility. The review highlighted the need for the BBC to balance impartiality with accessibility, stressing the importance of making economic content engaging. Audience research used as part of the review found that most people did not know what stories meant. It found Scottish audiences to be “a little more informed” with “lower socio-economic groups” worst affected.

‍

Implications. At the weekend, former Prime Minister Liz Truss was ridiculed from across the political spectrum for blaming “the left-wing economic establishment” for the failure of her economic programme. However, the point that there can be a reflexive economic orthodoxy which often goes unchallenged in mainstream public debate should be taken seriously, even if it stretches credulity to imagine that Truss’ brand of neoliberalism hasn’t been given a fair hearing in recent years.  

‍

Contested language. Some of the key economic debates of recent months have hinged on potentially contested economic terms making the BBC’s reflection on its own coverage and role in setting the terms of national debate particularly timely. If the BBC takes on board the review’s recommendations, what topics may be covered differently in the future? One issue that we may see reframed is that of the so-called ‘fiscal black hole’. This phrase, used relatively uncritically by the BBC and other outlets, has been widely criticised and questioned by leading economists and journalists. Could this review see the end of ‘black hole’ metaphors, and the associated reporting of often arbitrary fiscal rules as if they are ‘natural laws’? Similarly, the review has warned journalists about using politically-charged phrases such as the ‘tax burden’ which the New Statesman’s Anoosh Chakelian has described as ‘Tuftonspeak’. 

‍

Don’t swallow the line. Furthermore, ongoing strike action and high inflation has led outlets (including the BBC) to consider the possibility of a wage-price spiral, with the existence of one repeatedly asserted by the government when justifying wage restraint. However, the argument about whether this is in fact occurring has been deeply contested. With the review warning that there is an issue of journalists sometimes uncritically repeating government talking points, perhaps this is another area that will become increasingly challenged by BBC journalists in light of this review. 

‍

Better debate. Liz Truss and the libertarian right aside, a range of experts and journalists are beginning to reconsider how we think and talk about fiscal policy. If the BBC takes on board the review’s recommendations, we may just end up with a better informed debate about fiscal policy that goes beyond just black holes, tax burdens, and the infamous government credit card. 

The government’s “empty” plan for growth. Last week Chancellor Jeremy Hunt gave a speech on the government’s plans to boost economic growth, focusing on “four E’s” of enterprise, education, employment and everywhere”. However, the speech was received poorly by business lobby groups who complained it offered no new policies. Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said the speech should have included another E: “empty”.

• Solvency II reforms. At the centre of the speech was a previously-announced policy. Hunt said the reform of EU-era insurance regulations known as Solvency II “could unlock over one hundred billion pounds of additional investment into the UK’s most productive growth industries”. Rishi Sunak previously described the Solvency II reforms as an action to get rid of an “EU diktat which has been unnecessarily preventing…giant investments in UK firms and in industries”. 
• Politics. The BBC’s Dearbail Jordan reports that “Many have interpreted Mr Hunt's speech as an attempt to respond to criticism that the government has no long-term plan for growth.” The Chancellor also signalled that the March Budget would not contain big tax cuts, despite calls from some Conservative MPs. The FT’s Stephen Bush therefore suggests that this push for post-Brexit deregulation is to appease parts of the Conservative right: “He asked his party to swallow a lot of heresies in his autumn statement and will be asking them to swallow more in March…So a little bit of light Brexit boosting is, Hunt hopes, the spoonful of sugar that will make his internal critics take their medicine again in March.”

‍

Reducing buffers against financial shocks. The Solvency II reforms are part of the Chancellor’s 30 ‘Edinburgh Reforms’ that seek to deregulate the UK financial sector and “unlock investment and turbocharge growth in towns and cities across the UK.” The Solvency II regime regulates how much capital insurers have to keep as an extra buffer against shocks, to protect policyholders and the overall system in case of insolvency. It also restricts the capacity of insurers to invest in certain types of assets. The government is proposing to reduce the buffer capital by 65% for life insurers and 30% for general insurers, which British insurers estimate could release over £100bn over the next ten years. 

• Who benefits from the reforms? Former member of the Financial Conduct Authority Mick McAteer accused the government and regulators of “doing deals behind closed doors” which could “provide a windfall for shareholders at the expense of policyholders and pension savers”. Sam Woods, head of the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority, recently suggested that 8 million insurance policyholders could be affected by the reforms and warned that the proposal “‘increases risk’ and could result in a corporate failure that ultimately hits the public purse.” (Read our previous Digest for an explanation of how financial deregulation risks repeating the same mistakes that led to the 2008 financial crisis.)
• No guarantee capital goes to green investments. ShareAction’s Isabella Salkeld and Caroline Metz have written a briefing explaining the proposed Solvency II reforms and how they ignore “the greatest risk humanity faces today: climate change and its irreversible consequences”. They argue that changing regulations to allow UK insurers to hold less capital is “extremely risky” because, without mandatory requirements for where that capital ends up, “there is no guarantee that the tens of billions of capital previously set aside to protect policyholders will not be used to invest in and/or underwrite fossil fuel projects (or other socially and environmentally harmful assets) that expose both policyholders and insurers to greater risks.” (ShareAction’s policy briefing highlights the extent to which insurance companies – even those in the Net Zero Insurance Alliance – continue to underwrite and invest in new fossil fuel projects.)
• Insurers are both implicated in, and exposed to, climate risk. Finance Innovation Lab’s (FIL) Jesse Griffiths points out that the impacts of climate change also pose a risk to insurers and policyholders. For instance, increased risk of flood damage is estimated to lead to a 200% increase in insured losses in the UK. ClientEarth’s response suggests 5 proposals to ensure “that the insurance sector both supports climate goals and is resilient to the long-term risks that climate change poses” and lead to actual investment in green infrastructure, including capital requirements and double materiality - where insurers manage their impact on environmental and social matters and not just manage the risks to their own business - and more. FIL’s ‘Transforming Finance’ project produces a range of resources on how to repurpose the financial system to meet social and environmental as well as economic goals.
• Further regulatory divergence risks deterring investment. ShareAction’s consultation response to HM Treasury outlines their disappointment that the reforms don’t include “mandatory sustainability requirements to streamline the insurance industry with the UK Government’s climate ambition.” They highlight that the Solvency II Directive currently being reviewed in the EU is considering such requirements, and that the UK is lagging behind the EU in terms of the proportion of market activity accounted for by green finance: “It is vital that the UK keeps pace with the EU on sustainable finance. Not only is it impractical for companies to face divergent regulation in different jurisdictions, but it also puts the UK’s aim to be the world’s first Net Zero-Aligned Financial Centre in jeopardy.” 

‍

Growing the green economy without risking financial and climate crises. The UK government’s deregulatory approach deviates from the growing international consensus around the use of active industrial policy to crowd-in private capital and channel investment in growth areas. For instance, the “biggest climate spending package in US history”, the Inflation Reduction Act, includes £369bn in tax breaks to direct private investment in low-carbon energy and electric vehicles. Earlier this month the European Commission pledged to make “unprecedented” investments in clean technologies and relax state-aid rules to compete with the US package. 

• UK being left behind on green industrial strategy. The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard explains how the UK is “failing to keep up” with the US and EU and left “strangely adrift as it pursues a retrenchment policy of fiscal austerity”. In January CBI Director-General Tony Danker warned that “the overwhelming view of CBI members is that Rishi Sunak has dropped the ball on the green energy transition,” and the UK is losing out investment as companies look elsewhere to capitalise on opportunities in the US and EU. He also warned against mass deregulation as the UK pursues regulatory divergence from the EU.
• Case in point: the failure of BritishVolt. BritishVolt was conceived as a flagship part of the government’s levelling up agenda and crucial to securing resilient supply chains of the UK’s electric car manufacturing industry. The electric battery manufacturer went into administration in January after it failed to find a private investor and the government refused to bring forward public funding. Last week, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders warned that the number of new cars made in the UK was at its lowest level for 66 years and that the UK was lagging behind other countries, particularly in offering state aid to manufacturers. Make UK said there had been "some hugely damaging big picture issues caused by the absence of an industrial strategy which are impacting on some of our strategic sectors". ‍
• Free-market ideology is preventing green growth. The BBC’s Simon Jack suggests that ideological resistance to “overt government involvement in the private sector” - a policy seen as “picking winners” in the more libertarian wing of the Conservative Party - was to blame. (The Observer also blamed the government’s ‘free market thinking’.) Commenting on the failure and Chris Skidmore’s Net Zero Review, Chief Leader Writer of the Times, Simon Nixon, writes: “There is no path to delivering net zero by 2050 that does not require sizeable government support, whether in the form of guarantees or grants to de-risk investments.“

Survival of the Richest. Last week, on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Oxfam published its report “Survival of the Richest: How we must tax the super-rich now to fight inequality”. The report (backed by Bill Gates) highlighted how the wealthiest 1%  “grabbed nearly two-thirds of all new wealth… created since 2020, almost twice as much as the bottom 99 percent of the world’s population”. It calls for a “wide-ranging increase in taxation of the super-rich”, specifically an annual wealth tax of up to 5 percent on the world’s billionaires and multi-millionaires, which Oxfam says could raise enough money to lift 2 billion people out of poverty, deliver a plan to end hunger, and deliver healthcare to low- and lower middle-income countries. However, Oxfam is not alone in its calls for higher taxes on the wealthy. As the cost of living crisis continues, the gap between the richest and poorest grows, and climate catastrophe becomes reality, more and more seem to be turning to wealth taxes as a possible solution to the world’s, and the UK’s, economic problems. While momentum for the idea grows among inequality campaigners, they are certainly not alone. Economists, journalists, and policy experts across the political spectrum are starting to consider wealth taxes as a viable solution.

• The campaigners. It wasn’t just Oxfam who used the World Economic Forum in Davos as an opportunity to call for wealth taxes. Last week, a group of millionaires from across the globe wrote to political leaders at Davos, arguing that taxing rich people like them was “common-sense economics”. Signatories of the letter (coordinated by Patriotic Millionaires, Patriotic Millionaires UK, taxmenow and Millionaires for Humanity) included Disney heiress Abigail Disney and actor Mark Ruffalo. Last week also marked ‘Black Band Friday’, a global campaign for taxing the rich which deliberately coincided with the conclusion of the meeting of world “elites” at Davos. Outside of Davos, many ongoing campaigns are calling for wealth taxes. Stop the Squeeze, for example, is a UK-based coalition campaign which calls for higher taxes on wealth to fund solutions to the cost of living crisis. The campaign is spearheaded by the Economic Change Unit, Tax Justice UK and the New Economics Foundation and is supported by a range of civil society organisations, trade unions and grassroots groups.
• The “experts”. Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has joined recent calls for wealth taxes over the past week, arguing that a worldwide income tax rate of 70% on the highest earners would “make sense” and that annual wealth tax proposals such as Elizabeth Warren’s call for a 3% tax on those with more than $1 billion, were “reasonable”. 
• The press. In an editorial last week, the Guardian came out in favour of higher wealth taxes, arguing that “Britain has wealth taxes. But they don’t work very well” due to the fact that levies such as inheritance tax are easy to evade. Instead, an annual wealth tax of 1% on wealth above £10 million, or a “solidarity tax”, it argues, could tackle “the causes of low growth and high inequality”. Meanwhile, at the Financial Times, Chief Economics Commentator Martin Wolf called for policy-makers to consider “wealth taxes or taxes on bequests, to help fund the state people will need” in an essay defending “democratic capitalism” and criticising the rise of “rentier capitalism”. 
• The unlikely suspects. Conservative-aligned think tank Bright Blue has called for higher wealth taxes which it argues should be coupled with lower taxes on income from work which it says would help the Government achieve its “levelling up” objectives. The current Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride has previously alluded to his support for a one-off tax on stocks of wealth. In 2021, the IMF called for wealth taxes to reduce inequality in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

‍

The proposals. Those who call for higher taxes on wealth agree that taxation is currently too heavily concentrated on income from work and not on assets or income acquired outside of work (for example, through inheritance). However, taxation of wealth comes in a variety of forms. In the UK, current forms of wealth taxes generally tax transfers of wealth such as inheritance tax and capital gains tax. Some, such as centre-right think tank Bright Blue, focus on the need to reform such taxes or to make it easier for those taxes to be avoided or evaded. Others call for the introduction of taxes on stocks of wealth, as opposed to transfers. These come in the form of annual or “one-off” wealth taxes. 

• Capital gains reform. The University of Warwick’s Arun Advani has highlighted the dramatic difference in capital gains increases compared to incomes. While incomes have remained largely stagnant, capital gains have “skyrocketed in recent years”, almost trebling “from £22 billion to £63 billion, between 2012-13 and 2019-20”. He explains how most of the value of capital gains comes from the sale of small businesses, with 92% of these gains going to those with more than £100,000 in gains. Equalising rates of capital gains tax with income tax could raise £16 billion per year.  
• Extending national insurance. While workers pay an additional tax on their income in the form of national insurance, landlords, investors and those who benefit from owning assets do not pay such a levy. Advani argues that a “simple extension of national insurance to cover all income equally would raise £31.4 billion”. 
• Inheritance tax reform. Though concerns about inheritance tax are common, research shows that the very wealthiest actually pay less than those with large, but comparatively modest, estates. According to the Government’s 2018 Inheritance Tax Review, estates of £2-3 million pay 20% in inheritance tax on average while estates worth over £10 million pay only 10%. The IFS has argued that “inherited wealth stands in the way of social mobility”, finding that for those “in the top fifth of the wealth distribution, their inheritance could increase their lifetime income by nearly 30 per cent.” Meanwhile, “those born at the same time but with parents in the bottom fifth of the wealth distribution are likely to receive inheritances that add only 5 per cent to their lifetime income”. According to the Stop the Squeeze campaign, removing inheritance tax loopholes could raise £2.7 billion per year. 
• Annual wealth tax. Taxing stocks of wealth, as opposed to transfers, is an idea that is growing in popularity. While some call for one-off or windfall taxes, annual wealth taxes on the very richest could consistently raise significant sums for the public purse. A 1% tax on those with more than £10 million in stocks of wealth could raise £10 billion per year, according to the Wealth Tax Commission. Cristina Enache of the Tax Foundation outlines how different European countries implement annual wealth taxes. Countries such as Norway and Spain implement a net wealth tax, covering all the wealth an individual owns. Others have taxes on selected assets such as France which taxes all worldwide real estate of French tax residents worth over €1.3 million and non-French tax residents whose net real estate assets located in France are valued at or above €1.3 million. 
• Further reading. The House of Commons library has produced a helpful briefing and list of resources on the potential merits of wealth taxes. The Wealth Tax Commission’s tax tool allows individuals to model different wealth tax thresholds and simulate their own tax liabilities in the event of various levels of wealth tax. 

‍

The politics of wealth taxes. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been under continuous pressure to cut taxes throughout (and leading up to) his premiership and, together with his Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has been accused of being responsible for “the highest tax burden since World War Two”. However, Sunak has repeatedly demonstrated that he is unwilling to share that “burden” with those whose income stems from wealth rather than work. Other than lowering the threshold at which people pay capital gains tax (doing little to increase taxes on the very wealthy), Sunak has not introduced or increased any wealth taxes and in his role as Chancellor in 2021, rejected calls for an emergency wealth tax to fund pandemic spending. 

• Labour and wealth taxes. While Labour has vowed to abolish the “non-dom” tax loophole in which individuals who are resident in the UK can claim on their tax return that their permanent home (‘domicile’) is abroad, the party has been reluctant to make any commitments on higher taxes on wealth, though some comments suggest that the policy has not been ruled out. Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Pat McFadden, while not specifically addressing the question of wealth taxes, said that “wealth creation” should be matched by “fair taxation” in a Westminster Hall debate on wealth taxes last year. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said that she currently doesn’t have any plans to introduce wealth taxes, but has previously hinted at higher taxation on income from wealth. However, Labour have been keen to stress that all of their policy commitments won’t be “unfunded, un-costed", while at the same time pledging not to increase taxes on the “squeezed middle” and last year pledging not to reverse Liz Truss’ cut in the basic rate of tax from 20% to 19%. Reeves also made it clear that Labour opposed Truss’ “tax cut for the wealthiest one percent”. So, if Labour are “against austerity”, want to fully cost their pledges, prevent tax rises on everyday earners, and ensure the wealthy pay their fair share - do all roads lead to wealth taxes? ‍
• Polling. New YouGov polling shows that Britons generally support a variety of wealth taxes, especially when the threshold for paying the tax is high: “around three quarters would support a wealth tax of 2% on wealth over £5 million (73%), and of 1% on wealth over £10 million (78%). Both proposals draw cross party support, with seven in ten Conservative (69%) voters supporting the former, and 77% supporting the latter, along with 83% and 86% of Labour voters respectively”. The polling found that there was less support for a one-off wealth tax on wealth over £500,000.

Winter crisis in the NHS. 2023 began with renewed media attention on the crisis in the NHS. The Royal College of Emergency Medicine’s Dr Adrian Boyle warned that delays in A&E are causing between 300 and 500 deaths each week. Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation warned that staff pressures are becoming “unbearable” and “the next three months will be defined by further critical incidents needing to be declared and the quality of care being compromised.” Excess deaths are at a 50 year high (9% more than 2019). 

• The backlog is at an all time high. In addition to the crisis in A&E and ambulance waiting times, the latest data from the British Medical Association shows a record high of ~7.21m people are waiting for treatment in elective care. This is not a recent problem. In August 2022 National Audit Office found that there were ~2.75m patients waiting more than the legal standard of 18 weeks. Before the pandemic NHS England had not met elective waiting time performance standards for 4 years. (The King’s Fund’s Saoirse Mallorie explains what being on waiting lists actually means.)
• Causes of the bottleneck. The King’s Fund’s written evidence to an inquiry into NHS backlogs and waiting times argued that the root causes for longer waiting times were workforce shortages, funding shortfalls between 2010 and 2019, reduced numbers of beds relative to comparable countries’ health systems and a rising demand for care services due to an ageing population. 

‍

History of underinvestment in capital. The FT’s John Burn-Murdoch explains how the Government has decreased spending on the NHS as a share of GDP relative to comparable economies since 2010, and how this has led to a squeeze on staff pay and a “dearth of [capital] investment” so that “the NHS finds itself hamstrung by acute shortages of beds and the equipment that gets people out of beds faster.” (The NHS required an extra £33bn capital investment between 2010-2019 to catch up to the EU14 average.) The government’s answer to this was the 2019 election pledge to build 40 new hospitals by 2030, however the latest information is that work has only begun on 7 of the hospitals with other projects well behind schedule.

• Day-to-day spending. Further, average day-to-day UK government spending on healthcare between 2010 and 2019 was 18% below the EU14 average. Matching spending per head with France and Germany would have led to an additional £40bn and £73bn (respectively) in total health spending each year in the UK. (See the Nuffield Trust’s explainer on The past, present and future of government spending on the NHS.)
• Staff shortages. Total NHS vacancies now stand at 133,446, an increase from 7.9% in 2021 to 9.7% in 2022. The King’s Fund found that shortages are increasing due to a lack of long-term planning by the government and NHS over training and migration policy not being set with the “NHS’s interests in mind” (see a study from the Nuffield Trust on how Brexit affected the UK’s medical workforce).
• Retention and pay. Junior Doctor Jatinder Haryre notes that 89.7% of doctors who have already left the NHS to work abroad blame dissatisfaction with pay in the UK. The Institute for Public Policy Research’s Parth Patel explains that pay increases are crucial for maintaining NHS performance in an interview with Sky News. (See the TUC’s analysis of how much NHS staff have lost from a “brutal decade of lost pay” and our previous Digest for more on the impacts persistent pay constraint has had on public sector recruitment and retention.)
• Political implications. The FT’s Stephen Bush argues that “what would worry me were I a Conservative strategist is that the post-2019 increases in funding will start to actually have an effect on NHS performance, ooh, about a year after the next election, exactly in time for Labour to take the credit and to deepen voter anxieties about my party and the health service.“ Further, an Opinium poll commissioned by Compassion in Politics has shown that Conservative voters “overwhelmingly believe their party has failed in its management of the NHS during their time in Government”.

‍

The emergence of a two-tier healthcare system. More of the population are resorting to using private healthcare as an alternative to long waiting lists and declining quality of care. Persistent strain in the NHS has led some (e.g. from David Davis and Sajid Javid) to position insurance-based healthcare systems that utilise the private sector as solutions.  (See the Nuffield Trust CEO Nigel Edwards’s critique of social health insurance based systems.)

• “Exploiting the managed decline of the NHS?” A report from the IPPR explains how underfunding and persistent structural pressure has led to more increased direct utilisation of private healthcare services as more individuals are resorting to self-funding their own care. Keep Our NHS Public “condemns the underfunding of NHS services, particularly when done to cynically promote the unnecessary need for privatisation of services.” The Centre for Health and the Public Interest’s David Rowland argues that the growth of the for-profit healthcare sector in the UK is largely driven by government support. One example he gives is by exploiting access to a highly trained, expert workforce, as private providers contract NHS staff to deliver services without contributing to training.
• Outsourcing staff. Keep Our NHS Public notes outsourcing of staff as a key mechanism being used to drive privatisation. Professor Neena Modi, ex-president of the British Medical Association explains that sending NHS patients to private hospitals will worsen staff shortages within the NHS and erode health budgets as the public sector foots the bill for higher prices in the private sector.

‍

Labour’s solution sparks row. Sir Keir Starmer has said Labour would use the private sector in the health service more “effectively” if elected prime minister, which has attracted criticism from some on the left who  have accused Starmer of “ditching [his] pledge to end NHS outsourcing”. In the longer term, Labour has pledged a massive expansion in the NHS workforce, paid for by ending the non-dom tax status, but this would take years to bear fruit and would not help to deal with the immediate backlog.

• Clarifying Labour’s position. Labour wants to use spare capacity within the private sector (e.g. rooms and beds) to help clear the NHS backlog. Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting clarified that this treatment would still be “provided free at the point of need” and that this principle “will be erased over my dead body”. He proposed that “the next Labour government will agree a 10-year plan of change and modernisation”, which includes reform of how the NHS uses the private sector.
• Will it work? CHPI’s Director David Rowland argues that Labour’s proposals won’t work because “private hospitals do not have any additional doctors to assist in reducing the NHS backlog – in all the private hospitals operating in the UK, the doctors are NHS doctors, working in their spare time”. Further, workforce shortages are particularly acute amongst consultant level doctors that are critical for the delivery of the types of healthcare provided by the for-profit sector. Private hospitals can’t do anything to ease the staffing pressures currently driving the backlog, may deepen funding issues and expose patients to a greater risk of harm.

‍

Ultimately, clearing the backlog requires more funding. As Stephen Bush noted, “A good gauge for deciding how seriously you should take [either political party] is if their reforms are related to either of these two things: investment in healthcare capital and increasing bed capacity.” 

• Poor health is costing the government... The Times’ Health Commission found that rising levels of ill health are costing the economy £150bn a year in lost income tax, benefit payments and larger NHS budgets. Health inequalities were estimated to cost the UK £31bn to £33bn in productivity losses before COVID-19. However, the number of working age people suffering from chronic illness has significantly increased since the pandemic. The FT’s John Burn-Murdoch argues that “Britain’s healthcare crisis, with tens of thousands waiting over a year for hospital treatment, is directly contributing to the UK’s exceptional rise in economic inactivity."‍ The OBR recently predicted that up to 14% of the working age population will be in receipt of disability benefits by 2027-28 due to declining public health, which will increase government spending on welfare. 
• …holding back growth…Andy Haldane, Chief executive of the RSA and former governor of the Bank of England, has said that “more than a century of progress on health and wellbeing was going into reverse, with a direct impact on the economy and the cost of living emergency.” He said that the UK “sits towards the bottom of the pack” in the G7 on spending on healthcare, which is holding back the economy as the workforce has been shrinking since the pandemic. The Commission on the Future of Employment Support’s first report found that the “UK is one of only five countries in the industrialised world with a weaker labour market than before the Covid-19 pandemic and is on course to have the worst record by next year.”‍
• …and investment is politically popular. Those who want to increase taxes and spend more on health, education and social benefits has been climbing since 2017. More of the public want the government to “increase taxes and spend more” than those who want it to “keep taxes and spending at the same level as now”. Half of the public say they would support increasing the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 21% and using the money raised to increase spending on the NHS. Less than a third are opposed.

“The ‘sick man’ of the G7”? The Bank of England and various leading economists have said the UK has entered recession, with a 0.3% month-on-month decline in GDP for November expected to be reported on Friday. This is part of a wider global phenomenon, with at least one third of the world (and half of the EU) predicted to be in recession this year, according to the head of the IMF. However, the UK looks set to fare particularly badly. Experts are predicting we will have the longest and worst recession in the G7, causing a former governor of the Cypriot central bank to label the UK “the ‘sick man’ of the G7”. More than 80% of top economists polled by the Financial Times predict that UK growth will not be stronger than its counterparts, while Goldman Sachs’ macroeconomic outlook has forecast a 1.2% contraction in the UK’s real GDP, with a recession almost as deep as Russia’s. Meanwhile, the eurozone will see a contraction of just 0.1% while the US economy is expected to grow by 0.25%, according to Consensus Economics. Living standards are also declining more rapidly in the UK than elsewhere, with real income expected to fall by 3% in the UK in the first half of 2023, compared to a 1.5% decline in the eurozone across the same period. 

• But why? The combination of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a “US-style overheating jobs market” is the “official rationale” for the UK’s particularly poor growth forecast, says the BBC’s Faisal Islam. However, specific UK policy decisions are at least in part to blame according to Islam. While other European countries may be more reliant on Russia for their gas supplies, the UK is more reliant on gas in its energy system. This, he argues, is making “the country unavoidably poorer” as the rise in international gas prices means we have to pay more for this essential import. An unusually tight labour market (meaning a shortage of trained workers relative to demand) has caused problems in supply chains of critical goods and services. Brexit and the pandemic have played a role here. 
• “Structural hole” and a lack of investment. While recent shocks such as the energy crisis, Brexit and the pandemic explain some of the UK’s economic misfortunes, many argue that the problem is more deep-rooted. “The UK is in a structural hole, not a cyclical downturn”, argues Cambridge university professor Diane Coyle, one of the economists polled as part of the Financial Times’ annual survey. She calls for better trade relations with the EU and an “adequately long-term economic strategy” in order to improve UK living standards. The Guardian’s Larry Elliot suggests that the predicted recession both in the UK and globally points to a “crisis of capitalism” and that a reluctance, rather than an inability, to invest from both the government and the private sector is to blame. “Governments could have taken advantage of historically low borrowing costs to rebuild clapped-out infrastructure, but failed to do so”, he argues. Similarly, the Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, Torsten Bell, blames a lack of business investment in skills and automation for the UK’s growth problem, arguing that “Britain doesn’t invest in its own future”. 
• Wage stagnation. While Brexit and the pandemic have both had a significant impact on the UK’s labour shortage, these issues may simply have exposed longer-term, structural problems at the heart of the UK’s labour market. Poor wages and working conditions in key supply chain sectors such as road haulage mean that workers are leaving or simply not entering these roles, according to the Institute for Government, although wages in some key sectors have begun to increase in response to shortages. Falling average real wages are holding back growth, with the OBR predicting that real household disposable income will fall by 4.3% in 2022-23. Lower household incomes means less household spending, which pulls back GDP. A wage boost in the form of a “real living wage” could grow the economy by £1.7 billion, argues the Living Wage Foundation.

‍

Sunak’s answer. The Prime Minister set out his New Year vision to “address” Britain’s “issues” on 4th January - a speech labeled “defensive and defeatist” and a “somber assessment of Britain’s woes”. He delivered five pledges: to halve inflation, to grow the economy, to reduce the national debt, to cut NHS waiting lists and to introduce laws to detain those crossing the Channel in small boats.

• No plan for growth. Many have criticised Sunak for failing to provide an adequate growth plan, with his most detailed proposal revolving around children having to study “some form of maths to 18”. Conservative Home’s Paul Goodman argues that Sunak “won’t want voters to peer too closely at the small print”, arguing that on his pledges of growth and lowered inflation, “the substance requires some filling-out”. Similarly, former chief economist at the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, criticised the Prime Minister for having no plan for growth.

‍

Starmer’s answer. Sir Keir Starmer delivered a speech in the exact same venue as the Prime Minister on 5th January, setting out how “Britain needs change”. Starmer’s solutions revolved around tackling Westminster-led policy making and “sticking plaster politics”, with a focus on a mission-led approach and devolution of policy. Echoing economist Mariana Mazzucato, the Labour leader outlined how he would be announcing “national missions” over the coming weeks, with the first aimed at decarbonising the UK’s energy system by 2030. 

• Industrial partnership between public and private sectors. Labour’s recent report ‘Prosperity through Partnership’ outlines their approach to cross-sectoral, collaborative and consistent approach to industrial strategy. (See the Treasury Committee’s report criticising the government’s ‘chop and change’ economic strategy since 2020.) CBI Director General Tony Danker noted in his 2021 conference speech that “we’ve had five decades where the free market has palpably failed” and called for a “partnership with government”.‍
• A new “Take Back Control” Bill. Echoing the proposals made by Gordon Brown in a recent report for Labour on constitutional reform and decentralisation of power (See the IfG’s summary here), Starmer argued that “a huge power shift out of Westminster can transform our economy, our politics and our democracy”. The bill would devolve new powers over employment support, transport, energy, climate change, housing, culture, childcare provision and how councils run their finances. CLES’s Sarah Longlands argues that Brown's report does not go far enough in challenging “where power rests in the UK'' and fails to critique “the economic model that aids and abets [over-centralised decision-making]”.

The ‘New Winter of Discontent’. The government is facing a wave of public sector strikes this Winter with nurses, border force staff, DWP officials, ambulances workers and more joining rail workers, postal workers and others who have walked out over pay disputes. (For a useful explainer on recent strikes, read Anoosh Chakelian’s myth-busting piece for the New Statesman.)

• Political row over nurse pay. One key flashpoint is the strike from the Royal College of Nursing (RCN), where nurses taking part in unprecedented industrial action and are demanding pay rises 5% above RPI inflation to compensate for below inflation pay increases in the 2010s. (See the TUC’s analysis of how much NHS staff have lost from a “brutal decade of lost pay”.) The RCN say NHS pay announcements have left nurses 20% worse off in real terms compared to a decade ago. The government is offering pay increases of 4.75% to nurses despite RPI inflation forecast to hit 14% - a huge real pay cut. Conservative backbenchers such as Caroline Nokes and Jake Berry have urged the government to reevaluate their stance and improve their offer on nurses pay. (See Ipsos polling on public support for striking nurses.) The government’s case against the strike action has three main components, with ministers arguing that the pay claims are unaffordable, that they cannot override independent pay review bodies, and that pay rises will fuel further inflation. 
• Misleading costings. On the first point, the government has been accused of misleading the public, arguing that an inflation-matching pay rise for all public sector workers would cost £28bn - £1,000 per household. The IFS says the cost is actually more like £10-14bn once increased revenue from tax receipts is factored in and because some of the increase has already been promised by the government. Economist James Meadway explains how the actual costs (of around £12bn) are affordable within existing government budgets due to falling borrowing costs, or could be funded through tax increases in his latest Macrodose podcast.
• Independent PRB? On the second point, the role and ‘independence’ of Pay Review Bodies in the public sector is coming under greater scrutiny, with unions making the point that these bodies operate under a mandate set by central government. PRB’s operate make their recommendation based on two criteria, recruitment and retention needs (more on this later) and affordability, with the second having primacy. The affordability constraint is determined with reference to central government budgets, in this case the 2021 Spending Review which had allowed for pay rises of 2-3% based on inflation running at 2-4%, and PRBs are highly reluctant to recommend unfunded pay rises above these levels. While not directly comparable, central government’s insistence that it has no role on pay, while holding the purse strings, is analogous to their role in the rail dispute and is one of the central barriers to meaningful pay negotiations. (As an aside, the government are now arguing that they will instruct the NHS PRB to take a greater account of staffing pressures and recommend higher rises next year, which rather undermines their point about independence).
• No risk of wage-price spiral. The final plank of the government’s argument is that pay rises would drive inflation, but this line is also crumbling. David Smith, Economics Editor at the Sunday Times notes: “There is little danger that higher public sector pay settlements would trigger a wage-price spiral. Rather, it would be public sector pay catching up”. According to the IfG, the NHS Pay Review Body essentially concluded that its recommendations were not meaningfully constrained by the government’s inflation target, saying: “As earnings growth remains substantially below inflation, we judge that increases in earnings present a much lower risk to increasing the rate of inflation compared to some of the other fundamental drivers.” (Read the IMF’s recent paper suggesting fears of wage-price spirals are not supported by empirical evidence.)

Public services, recruitment and retention. The primary context for these public sector strikes is clearly high inflation and the cost of living crisis, but it is also impossible to ignore the role that persistent pay constraint has had on public sector recruitment, retention, and morale over recent years. Public services, and the NHS in particular, are suffering from growing vacancies and skills shortages. IPPR’s Parth Patel explains that pay increases are crucial for maintaining NHS performance in an interview with Sky News. For instance, there are currently 47,000 nursing vacancies and around 1 in 3 public sector workers have taken steps to quit their profession or are actively taking steps to do so, with the majority citing low pay as the decisive factor. Without pay increases, public services will deteriorate. (The TUC analysis also found that nearly 1 million children in key worker households are growing up in poverty.)

• What is the government planning instead? The government is currently working on a workforce plan for the NHS, but it is an open question how they plan to fill growing vacancies without fair pay increases relative to the private sector. TUC analysis shows pay in the public sector has fallen much faster than in the wider economy (£180 in real terms compared to the same month last year, and with pay falling by £76 in the wider economy). Martin Wolf explains why “Letting inflation reduce real wages while expecting services to be maintained is dishonest…The government should keep pay in line with the private sector’s, especially where it has significant recruitment and retention problems. If this means it has to reopen spending plans that no longer make sense in today’s debased pounds, so be it.”
• Nurses not non-doms. Meanwhile Labour has launched its own NHS campaign, pledging “one of the biggest expansions of the NHS workforce in history”, with thousands of new training places for doctors and nurses, funded by the abolition of the non-dom tax status. (For more on non-doms read this by CAGE’s Arun Advani).
• Theory of the strike. It is partly for this reason that the FT’s Stephen Bush questions whether the Sunak government has thought through its theory of how to win this industrial dispute. Even if the government manages to grind public sector workers down over this pay offer, it will still be left with huge recruitment and retention issues, a further demoralised and under-funded workforce, and the consequences of this for public service delivery. Without a serious plan for dealing with these issues, and with the public largely taking the side of the workers, it is hard to avoid the impression that the government is locked in a losing battle with no exit strategy.

‍

Strikes expected to become the norm. What does the future hold for industrial action in the public sector? We can answer this partly by looking at the overall spending envelope going forwards. In the Autumn Statement last month, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt committed to the departmental budgets outlined in the 2021 Spending Review (with some exceptions). This was based on outdated inflation predictions, and locks departmental budgets until 2024/25. After this there will be even greater pressure, as departmental budgets are set to be squeezed again. In summary, the Institute for Government concludes that: “the reality is that from this year services are unlikely to see further large budget increases to deal with poor performance and an increasing share of their budgets will need to be spent on higher pay awards to keep services functioning”. 

• “Get used to them”. Resolution Foundation’s Torsten Bell highlights that, while we are still a long way away from the scale of strikes seen in the 1970s, we should “get used to them”, as “Workers and firms are contesting who pays what part of the cost of Britain becoming poorer, and strikes are what that looks like.”
• If you can't beat them. The government plans to bring in new laws to restrict Trade Unions’ right to strike following proposals for allowing agency workers and soldiers to replace striking workers in key sectors (see our previous Digest). Last week 11 trade unions were granted permission for a legal challenge against strike breaking in the High Court.
• Funding pay increases to rebuild public services. Ahead of the mini-budget, the TUC called on the government to invest an additional £43bn in public services to deliver a cost-of-living proof pay rise for public sector workers and protect budgets from the impact of inflation. NEF’s analysis calculates the funding shortfall against the 2021 Spending Review commitment for the Departments for Health and Social care, Education, Justice and the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Separately, NEF has advocated using taxes to capture growing wealth of the UK’s billionaires to fund vital infrastructure and public services. 

The income crisis. The cost of living crisis has dominated the economic agenda for the past year, with the focus primarily on inflation and the extent to which prices of food, energy and other essentials are rising. However, inflation is just one side of the cost of living crisis. The other half of the story is income stagnation for those both in and out of work. Years of minimal pay rises mean that wages are not expected to return (in real terms) to their pre-financial crisis levels until 2027. According to the Resolution Foundation, had wages continued to grow at their pre-2008 rate, they would be £292 a week – or £15,000 a year – higher. As a result, over a quarter of households have less than a month’s worth of income to fall back on as a buffer. This means relying on social security which too has failed to keep up with the rapidly rising cost of living and is at its lowest level on record. A new report, published yesterday by the New Economics Foundation (NEF), predicts that budgets are about to be squeezed even more. It finds that 43% of households, and 90% of single parents, will be unable to afford a decent standard of living by the next election. 

• Raising pay. Demands for wage increases are growing, with industrial action either planned or soon to be voted on across most of the public sector throughout December 2022 and in the new year (see our weekly updates for more detail). There are also calls for the government to take action across the board, with the TUC, for example, calling for a £15 minimum wage. 

Bridging the gap: a national living income. Successful industrial action and an increase in the minimum wage will go a long way to improve living standards. However, those who cannot work, cannot work full time or for whatever reason cannot rely on income from a decent wage, must rely on the social security system. While there has been strong resistance over the past decade to welfare cuts and specific aspects of the social security system such as the two-child limit and the benefit cap, attention is rarely focused on designing a new system altogether. NEF’s new report ‘The National Living Income: Guaranteeing a minimum income for all’ attempts to bridge the gap (see NEF’s Alfie Stirling’s summary here). It calls for Universal Credit to be replaced with a national living income: a plan which would create a minimum income floor below which nobody (employed or not) could fall and could see the disposable income of the poorest families rise by 50%. The research uses the Minimum Income Standard (MIS), a way of measuring living standards developed by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) and the Centre for Research in Social Policy (CRSP) at Loughborough University. It is used to calculate the ​‘real’ Living Wage. The proposal is involves a number of key reforms:

• A guaranteed minimum income. NEF proposes that a minimum income should be guaranteed which amounts to at least 50% of the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) after housing and childcare costs (AHCC). This compares to 35% and 33% of MIS (AHCC) for single adults and couples over the age of 25 (respectively) on UC.
• Alignment of tax and income protection. It also proposes that nobody would pay tax or have benefits withdrawn until their income reaches 100% of the MIS (AHCC) for a single adult, which would include reform to personal tax allowances and work allowances.
• A universal national allowance. A universal national allowance of £187 a month would be paid to almost everyone in the “as a new pillar of income protection for all, and making up part of the 50% of MIS guarantee”.
• Additional payments. NEF proposes that additional payments be made to ensure that disabled people and those unable to look for work in the near future receive up to 100% of the MIS (AHCC) in income support.
• Enabling auto-enrolment onto the NLI. The National Living Income would be calculated and paid automatically when incomes fall in the same way that tax contributions rise when incomes go up. NEF says that this would eliminate the five-week wait for Universal Credit.
• Scrapping existing caps, limits and sanctions. NEF proposes scrapping the existing caps on social security, including the benefit cap and the two-child limit. 

‍How to pay for it? NEF estimates that implementing the full national living income reforms would cost £70.6bn per year in 2021/22 prices, with an initial package of reform costing £25.3bn. The authors of the report, Sam Tims and Alfie Stirling, argue that this could be funded by “closing the gap in effective tax on income from employment compared with income from wealth and ensuring higher earnings pay the same marginal rate of national insurance as everyone else”. They say that this would include “extending national insurance to investment income, equalising the rates of tax on capital gains and dividends with income tax, and abolishing the upper earnings limit to national insurance contributions”.

• Coalition support. Along with Tax Justice UK and the Economic Change Unit, NEF helped to form the Stop the Squeeze campaign: a coalition of organisations which is calling for the Government to reform the tax system in order to introduce a living income (as well as clean, affordable energy for all). 

‍Benefits of a national living income. As the report outlines, recent events such as the Covid-19 pandemic have brought the inadequacies of the current social security system into sharp focus. The pandemic also opened the door to “radical economic reform” and the possibility of universal income support, explains the FT’s Martin Sandbu. The furlough scheme created a shift in opinion about universalism, away from the principle that support should be “the least you can get away with”. A national living income would introduce such a universality,  reducing the need for ad hoc crises schemes such as furlough, while at the same time targeting support to those most in need. Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has echoed the language of a living income, calling for “a decent minimum standard below which no one should ever fall”, with the Government needing to “take the shame out of need”. 

• Who would benefit? NEF argues that under the national living income scheme, two-thirds of the population would see their disposable incomes rise, with the poorest families seeing a rise of as much as £500 a month on average. Severely disabled people would see a rise in incomes of 32% on average, while single parents would see a rise of 18%. 

Migration and growth. There are of course many non-economic arguments about migration and many arguments for increased migration other than for promoting economic growth. However, as fiscal debates about blackholes and doom loops rumble on, migration has found itself at the heart of the growth conversation. Last week, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) held its annual conference, with both the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition using keynote speeches to present their vision for business and growth. A week on from the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, anxiety still appeared to run high among business leaders, with the CBI’s chief UK Policy Director, Matthew Fell, warning of the impact of labour shortages on growth. Fell suggested that as the country was “running out of firepower on both fiscal and monetary policy”, the easing of migration rules may be the key to plugging the labour gap, meeting demand and spurring on growth. The number of job vacancies now stands at 1,225,000 according to the ONS which is 54 percent higher than before the pandemic. The CBI has called for the Shortage Occupations List (SOL) to be extended which would mean that visa restrictions would be eased for a wider range of positions. 

• GDP per capita. In many ways, it makes logical sense that more immigration to the UK during a labour shortage should lead to growth, therefore a much-needed boost to living standards. However, while there is little doubt that plugging these labour gaps with migration would increase the size of the economy, it is not guaranteed to provide a better standard of living, argues the LSE’s Alan Manning.  Too often, Manning argues, the calculation of whether immigration boosts growth relies too heavily on GDP rather than GDP per capita. 
• Migration and productivity. Several studies have actually found immigration to have a positive effect on GDP per capita as well as GDP. Many of these studies attribute the benefits of immigration to its effect on productivity, with some studies finding that the marginal migrant is around 2.5 times as productive as a UK-born worker. Another suggests that one percentage point increase in the migrant share results in a 1.6 per cent increase in total factor productivity (the total outputs relative to the total inputs used in production of the output).
• Low-skilled vs. high-skilled migration. It is not necessarily just “high-skilled” migration that has a positive effect on migration, suggests former Cabinet Office chief economist Jonathan Portes who argues that “a more liberal immigration system overall, even one that is not solely focused on high-skilled workers, may boost productivity”. The TUC has argued against a points based system which preferences high-skilled workers, suggesting that “restricting the number of visas available for low skill jobs will increase shortages in key public sector roles”.
• Training. When it comes to tackling labour and skills shortages, migration is often framed as the antithesis of training, in which migrants fill the gap left by a skills shortage among UK-born workers. In his speech to the CBI last week, Keir Starmer advocated for “a clear plan for higher skills and more training”, in place of the UK’s current “immigration dependency”. (it is worth noting that Starmer stopped short of saying that he thought overall migration should fall, saying that Labour would be “pragmatic on the basic lack of people”). However, a study by Francesco Campo (King’s College London), Giuseppe Forte (University of Oxford) and Jonathan Portes (King’s College London) found no evidence of migration having a negative impact on the training of the UK-born workforce. It found that, at local authority level, a one percentage point increase in the migrant share is associated with a 10.1 percentage point increase in native workers’ training. 
• But, there must be investment. The CBI frames looser immigration policy as an antidote to a dearth of fiscal and monetary policy options. However, migration can only be successful if coupled with stimulus and investment, according to the TUC. “The way to tackle concerns about immigration isn’t by further restrictions and exploitative new schemes, but by addressing the root cause of low pay, insecure contracts, undercutting and discrimination workers are suffering, along with cuts to public services and lack of skills training”, it argues. 

‍

Net migration. Net migration has hit a record of 504,000 in the year up until June 2022, an increase of 331,000 on the previous year. The net migration of non-EU nationals was 509,000, which is three times as high as the previous year while the net migration of EU nationals was -51,000. In large part this increase is due to an increase in arrivals from countries where the UK had established specific schemes in order to provide refuge for those fleeing conflict zones or political repression, specifically Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong.  From June 2021 to June 2022, 89,000 Ukrainians, 76,000 Hong Kongers and 21,000 Afghans arrived in the UK. And while asylum applications are at their highest for 32 years, nearly 100,000 people are waiting more than six months to have their initial claims processed. 

• Student migration. The number of migrants arriving on student visas nearly doubled to 277,000 in the year up to June 2022. A new graduate visa scheme means that students can apply to work in the UK for up to three years after graduation. However, research suggests that the majority of non-EU students leave immediately at the end of their studies. However, rumoured plans to clamp down on student migration could bankrupt universities, according to King’s College London’s Professor Brian Bell. Bell argued that universities could struggle to survive without international students, warning that such a measure could lead to higher fees for UK students. He also pointed out that only allowing international students on courses designated as “elite” (such as those at Oxford, Cambridge and in London) could pose significant issues for the Government’s “levelling up” agenda. 

‍

The political landscape. Despite the CBI’s calls for looser immigration policy, both Labour and the Conservatives have taken a much tougher stance with the Prime Minister arguing that immigration should fall and Keir Starmer warning of the UK’s “dependency” on migrant workers. 

• Public opinion. Starmer and Sunak may be at odds with the public on this issue, however, with polls suggesting that the public’s concerns over immigration have waned since the 2016 Brexit referendum. A new paper published by the IPPR which analyses a range of attitudes data (such as the British Election Study and the Ipsos immigration tracker) suggests that “the public has become strikingly more positive about immigration across a range of indicators”. “While around 44 per cent of the public saw immigration as a top priority in 2015, the average for 2022 so far stands at only around 9 per cent”, the paper suggests.
• Support for economic migration. This positive shift in favour of immigration appears, at least in part, to be linked to labour shortages, with public support varying for different types of immigration. The IPPR analysis found that the strongest support was for the migration of nurses and doctors but also that there had a been a strong increase in support for “relatively low skilled professions where substantial labour market pressures exist, such as restaurant and catering staff, construction workers, and fruit pickers”. 

‍

The alternatives. Is the CBI’s suggestion of expanding the Shortage Occupations List the answer? This suggestion is backed by the IPPR, which has advocated for “opening up the list to allow for the potential inclusion of occupations of all skill levels” while also “redefining the shortage occupation list as a ‘priority occupation list’”. The IPPR also suggests that the immigration system could be used to boost workers’ rights more generally. For example, it could require employers to pay the real living wage to all their employees in order to gain a sponsorship licence and require sponsors to inform migrant workers of their employment rights.

• No return to free movement. One idea which is not coming back is a return to free movement of labour. Despite arguing that the Brexit deal has to be ‘fixed’ and that forging a closer, less antagonistic, relationship with the EU would be Labour’s policy, the party have also made clear that free movement would be a ‘red line’.  
• Safeguard against low pay. As well as ensuring that employers pay the living wage, immigration policy could also boost training and safeguard against low pay of migrants. Currently, employers can pay migrants less for roles on the Shortage Occupation List. However, businesses who use this scheme could be forced not only to demonstrate that they pay staff a living wage, but that they will invest in staff training and commit to increasing migrant wages over time, argues the IPPR’s Marley Morris. Morris has also set out how regional mayors can use their skills remit to promote regional growth and integration of migrants. ‍
• Allowing asylum seekers to work. Another proposal that could help plug the skills shortage is to lift the ban on employment for asylum seekers who are waiting for their claims to be processed. Chief Executive of the Legatum Institute, Baroness Stroud, has argued that this would be a “common sense” change, with the ban currently costing the taxpayer an estimated £210m a year and leaving “businesses up and down the country without extra hands at a time of record job vacancies”. The idea has support across the political spectrum, including from prominent Conservatives such as Dominic Raab and Steve Baker.

No alarms and no surprises: There were few surprises when the Chancellor delivered his Autumn Statement last week, and in many ways this was the whole point. This was a fiscal event with the primary aim of reassuring the markets and the country that the government that the ‘grown-ups’ were back in charge and as a result the entire contents were extensively briefed beforehand. Rhetorically Jeremy Hunt attempted to do two things in the statement. The first was to deflect blame for the dire economic situation away from the government. The message was that a combination of Russia, Covid and (unspoken) his predecessor were responsible for the country's economic woes. The second was to reassure both voters and his own MPs that the choices he was making to manage those woes could have been worse, hence the talk of a “balanced approach” between spending cuts and tax rises.

• Context is king: The OBR was famously excluded from the last fiscal event, but the agency took centre stage here, predicting a long recession and the biggest fall in living standards on record. This combination, described as “horrific” by economist Duncan Weldon, was the main story from the day and presented a bleak picture of the next few years, with real disposable incomes set to be lower in 2028 than they were pre-pandemic and the value of workers’ pay packets not expected to return to their 2008 level until 2027 according to Torsten Bell of the Resolution Foundation.
• Moving the goalposts: In response, the main decision the Chancellor took was to loosen the fiscal rules set by his predecessor in order to avoid even greater spending cuts or tax rises. He extended the period until the debt-to-GDP ratio needs to be falling until the fifth year of the forecast period (up from three years), and introduced a new rule that total public borrowing in the same period should not exceed 3% of GDP. This loosening was in some ways a tacit admission that the government’s pre-statement rhetoric on the ‘fiscal black hole’ was always overblown, and the government always had the option of changing its fiscal rules. Interestingly, Hunt did not use the phrase ‘black hole’ once in the statement. (See our recent Digest on the fiscal debate). It is also a reminder that these rules define the terms of our political and economic debates, and they still receive relatively little scrutiny considering the enormous impact they have.
• Tough choices: These new rules may have been looser, but they still committed the government to a substantial fiscal tightening in the next five years. The Chancellor delivered this in two ways. The first was through a series of tax rises in the near term, billed as “asking more from those who had more”. In fact, the majority of the extra revenue came from freezing income tax thresholds for those on low and middle incomes - an effective reversal of the major tax policy of successive Conservative governments from 2010 onwards. CAGE’s Arun Advani unpicks the tax changes here, arguing that the government should have gone much further on taxing wealth. The second plank of the plan was a £28bn squeeze on public spending in the years after 2025, with some areas such as health and education protected. Tackling inflation was one of the justifications for these cuts, and inflation will make this squeeze feel even worse, with the TUC and NEF warning that public services needed an extra £43bn just to stand still.

That’s how you get a doom loop: The phrase ‘doom loop’ was heard from both sides of the chamber in the debate, referring to the idea that spending cuts and low investment would trap the UK in a cycle of economic stagnation, leading to more spending cuts. With the short-lived ‘plan for growth’ of the Truss era consigned to the scrapheap, the Chancellor reassured the Commons that the government was still committed to growing the economy. The problem, as IPPR’s George Dibb points out, is that the OBR thinks the measures announced will do almost nothing to lift the UK’s anaemic growth rate.

• Capital pains: In fact, the government announced cuts to the UK’s capital budgets from 2025 onwards, the very spending that is most likely to lead to growth in the future. With business investment also predicted to remain weak, and the government trapped by internal Conservative politics on issues like immigration and housing, it becomes increasingly difficult to see where growth is coming from in the next few years.

‍The big squeeze: The government saw stabilising the public finances as their task in this statement, but for the public the main issue is that their personal finances remain in crisis. Despite the squeeze on households, the government announced precious little help on the cost of living in the statement. The Chancellor attempted to present automatic upratings to pensions, universal credit, and the minimum wage as acts of generosity from the government, whilst announcing a small package of extra grants for the most vulnerable in 2023.

• High prices, guaranteed: Hunt also confirmed that his decision to abandon the pledge to freeze energy prices for two years would result in the level of the Energy Price Guarantee rising from £2500 to over £3000 from April 2023. As IPPR’s Carsten Jung points out, this is a far lower level of support than that being provided by comparable countries like Germany.
• Make me energy efficient, but not yet: Campaigners have long been calling on the government to invest in energy efficiency and home insulation programmes which would reduce bills, save government money, and cut down on carbon emissions. The Chancellor did at last commit to action on this front, establishing a new Energy Efficiency taskforce and a target to reduce energy consumption by 15% by 2030. But with funding not available until 2025, campaign group Warm this Winter warn that millions will still face fuel poverty this winter. 
• Pay under pressure: The other effect of the government’s squeeze on public spending will be to intensify the battle over public sector pay rises. Unison General Secretary Christine McAnea responded by warning that: “Health worker wages must be boosted now to prevent a damaging dispute this winter. Otherwise, the NHS can’t hang on to experienced staff, halt the damaging exodus of key workers or improve wait times for patients.”

A trap for Labour?: The decision to delay spending cuts until after the election in 2025 was justified by the Chancellor as a decision not to further weaken the economy going into a downturn, but has been widely interpreted as a trap for Labour. The message the government wanted voters to hear around the statement was that they are willing to take the tough decisions to deal with an economic crisis not of their making, while Labour refuse to face up to reality.

• Blame game: The first problem with this approach is that the public aren’t buying the argument that the cost of living crisis is not the government’s fault, according to polling for Channel 4 news. This largely explains why Labour continues to enjoy extremely healthy leads in general election polling, and this is before the energy price rises, tax rises, and biggest fall in living standards on record really hit home.
• Sound finances: For their part, Labour are not taking the bait. They have responded to the Autumn Statement by insisting that they are the party of ‘sound finances’, rhetorically accepting the need for fiscal discipline while stopping short of committing to specifics. Leader Keir Starmer explained that the economic context meant that Labour would be unable to do everything they want to do as fast as they had hoped. 

Cycle of stagnation: Labour’s main economic argument is that 12 years of stagnation and 12 years of chaos left the UK economy in a historically weak position, and that major investment (particularly in the green transition) is needed to force the UK onto a higher growth trajectory. Squaring this analysis, and the need to rebuild public services, with the commitment to fiscal discipline and the need to avoid the government’s spending trap will be the terrain for the coming years of political battle.

COP27 and climate finance. COP27 continues this week as 196 countries and the EU gather to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. A key issue at this year’s negotiations is ‘climate finance’ - money provided in different forms from advanced economies to countries in the global South. 

• Negotiations at COP26. Developed countries pledged in Copenhagen in 2009 and again in the Paris Agreement that they would mobilise public and private funding of $100bn a year by 2020. They failed to hit this target (providing $80bn in 2019) but said they expect to hit it in 2023. (Oxfam calculate the “true value” of climate finance provided to developing countries to be much lower than reported, once “dishonest and misleading accounting” is taken into account.) At COP26 last year, developed countries resisted the demand that they make up the shortfall since 2020 by providing more in 2024 and 2025. The level remains at $100bn a year, and a process is currently under way to define a New Collective Quantified Goal for how much they should pay after 2025.

‍

Finance for adaptation. Achim Steiner, the UN’s Global development chief, warned that more than 54 poor countries are in danger of bankruptcy and suggested that many were at risk of giving up on the climate talks if developed countries fail to provide the pledged climate finance required to implement their mitigation and adaptation goals. 

• Ensuring finance goes where it is needed. For many years poorer countries have expressed anger that around 75% of climate finance has gone to mitigation efforts, such as renewable energy, rather than on adaptation to help them cope with the climate change they are already experiencing. Last year’s UN Environment Programme report on financing for adaptation estimates that the costs for vulnerable countries to adapt to global warming are up to ten times higher than available funding. Last year’s Glasgow Climate Pact (see our analysis) saw the vulnerable countries achieve their demand that developed countries should “at least double” funds for adaptation. The Stockholm Environment Institute outline 6 principles to underpin climate finance so that it meets the needs and priorities of vulnerable communities

‍

Loss and damage. A key issue at COP27 has been the issue of ‘loss and damage.’ In UN climate negotiations 'loss and damage' is the term used to describe the principle that rich countries should compensate poor ones for the climate costs their historical emissions have caused. For many countries in the global South this is central to climate justice. 

• The Pakistan Megafloods. Devastation wreaked by the recent ‘megafloods’ in Pakistan increased the salience of loss and damage at COP27 this year as they highlighted mounting fiscal and climate challenges that vulnerable nations continue to face. Official reports estimate 33 million people have been affected by floods in Pakistan this year - significantly more than the 2010 ‘megafloods’. For context, one third of the country was underwater - an area equivalent to the size of the UK - with economic damages exceeding $30bn. Climate resilience experts Dr Amiera Sawas and Sobia Kapadia argue that “This is a clear cut example of loss and damage that can be used to amplify the calls of the most vulnerable states for a financial mechanism to support countries experiencing such devastation despite being low emitters.” 

‍

Who is responsible for climate change? Developed countries have always resisted recognising the concept of loss and damage; they fear it is the slippery slope to being held liable in international courts for trillions of dollars in damages although developing countries agree any mechanism would not legally establish liability. The largest 20 economies in the world (the G20) are responsible for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions, whilst the whole of Africa is responsible for 4%, but suffers disproportionate impacts. (See Carbon Brief’s video showing which countries are responsible for cumulative emissions.) A new study published by Christian Aid warns that, under current climate policies, African countries will lose 20% of their average expected GDP by 2050, and 64% by 2100.

• “Polluters must pay”. Research by Global Justice Now (GJN) found the ‘Big 5’ oil companies (including BP and Shell) are responsible for four times more carbon emissions than the 150 lowest-emitting countries, and have reported $170bn in profits this year - more than the annual amount being called for to compensate the global south for loss and damage. Campaigners have suggested extending the windfall tax on oil and gas companies into a ‘climate damages tax’ to raise-revenue for loss and damage payments. (25% more fossil fuel lobbyists registered to attend COP27 this year.)
• “Drowning not only in flood but in debt”. Debt Justice has highlighted that over 70% of climate finance has been in the form of loans, not grants, which add to the debt burdens of lower income countries. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Pakistan’s foreign minister said that this historic flooding means they “end up not only drowning in the floodwater, we also end up drowning in the debt as a result of having to rebuild" Pressure is building to reform international finance institutions to allow ‘debt-for climate swaps’, where creditors cancel some debt from a poorer country in exchange for a commitment to an equivalent or lesser amount of climate adaptation or mitigation investment. Debt Justice has previously explained why debt-for-climate swaps are “not a silver bullet”, particularly since new conditionalities must not be imposed on poor countries for a crisis they did not create.

‍

Progress so far. Egypt pushed ‘loss and damage’ to the top of the agenda at COP27, but the EU and US have “coordinated a gentle but firm pushback” against the idea of the creation of a dedicated fund for ‘loss and damage’ compensation so far, opting instead for a “mosaic of solutions”. 

• The “mosaic of solutions”. The Loss and Damage Collaboration explains that this term originated in a speech by Mia Amor Mottley, the President of Barbados, but has since been adopted by developed countries to focus on solutions outside the remit of the UN, such as Germany’s Global Shield Against Climate Risk. Her original vision included a dedicated loss and damage fund, reforming the IMF and World Bank to provide debt relief and mobilise finance through Special Drawing Rights, and taxing fossil fuel companies and other big emitters. Carbon Brief is tracking the ongoing negotiations and finds that only 10% funding pledges made from rich nations at the time of writing is for on the ground projects relating to loss and damage.
• The way forward. E3G argues that an ambitious outcome at COP27 would require parties to agree to the establishment of a loss and damage facility with “accessible, transparent and additional” funding, and more. The negotiations aim to be concluded later this week. Formation of a loss and damage fund at COP27 has become the clear litmus test for developing countries' trust in the UNFCCC process and the willingness of rich countries to step up and meet their responsibilities, thirty years since first signing the climate convention at the UN’s 1992 Rio Earth Summit.

The long march to economic ‘credibility’. Fiscal policy debates are heating up in the run up to the Autumn Statement on the 17th November. Treasury sources have been briefing journalists the gory details of the rumoured ‘black hole’ in the public finances and dropping hints about measures being considered to fill it. The latest estimates report that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is planning cuts and tax rises totalling £60bn (at least half is expected to come from spending cuts) as he attempts to restore the Conservative party’s reputation for economic credibility. (Be warned: there is a large amount of expectation management going on from the Treasury, so take all reports of figures or policy options with a pinch of salt).

• A comprehensive explainer of fiscal responsibility. But what is fiscal space, how much does the government have, and what determines the options available to the Chancellor? Spending and Stability, a timely briefing by IPPR’s Carys Roberts and Carsten Jung, outlines the macroeconomic situation after the mini-budget and clarifies what the real constraints on tax and spending decisions are going forward.
• Inflation and sustainability are the only constraints. The authors explain there is little justification for the government narrative of a multi-billion pound ‘black hole’ which must be filled immediately to avoid economic calamity. In fact, the primary short-term constraint is the risk that any tax and spending decisions further stoke inflation (which they argue was the main driver behind the mini-budget “market turmoil” - read our analysis of the mini-budget’s contents and reaction) and the only medium-term constraint is the Chancellor’s choice of fiscal rules (a self-defined measure of sustainability).
• Room for additional spending. In the short term, IPPR argues that there is room for the government to raise spending to combat the cost of living crisis and invest in policies that will lead to economic growth, as long as inflation pressures are controlled. In the medium term, even the governments’ own fiscal rules do not prescribe spending cuts. Instead, a mix of policies (such as public investment) that increase growth (and thus lead to higher tax receipts and lower public spending) combined with some tax increases, would provide a credible fiscal strategy. This kind of countercyclical fiscal policy would be a more normal response to an impending recession, as the BBC’s Andy Verity explains. 

‍

Debt sustainability and fiscal rules. At the heart of this debate is the UK’s framework of fiscal rules. Fiscal rules are chosen by the Chancellor: they are a commitment to certain debt management policies to assure investors in UK public debt that there is a plan to ensure debt levels remain manageable - violating this can lead to higher risk premiums, leading investors to charge more interest on the debt. There are multiple fiscal rules, but the important one for this debate is the commitment to ensure the UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio is falling by the third year of the OBR forecast (i.e. by the end of 2025). This is a rolling target, so in some ways it can never be reached, but it does oblige the government to attempt to set out policies to meet it, which the Office for Budget Responsibility assesses. The ‘black hole’ is the anticipation of how far the government is away from meeting this self-imposed rule. 

• Debt-to-GDP ratios. Media commentary is estimating different sizes of the ‘fiscal black hole’ (from £10bn to £70bn) because it is based on different forecasts of GDP growth in three years time - or over five years if they assume the Chancellor will relax his fiscal rules and give himself more time to have debt falling as a % of GDP. The anticipated growth rate makes a huge difference to the estimated size of the ‘hole’, which is why policies that can raise the growth rate are also effective fiscal management policies. 
• The ‘moron premium’ and market reaction to the mini-budget. IPPR clarify that the market turmoil caused by the tax-cuts in the Truss government’s mini-budget was not due to a lack of faith from investors about the ability to repay the debt. They suggest that actually, it was caused by the lack of evidence about the effect of tax cuts to generate economic growth, citing recent analysis by the IMF (NB there is now a long-standing breadth of evidence that trickle-down economics - particularly via tax cuts - fails to generate growth), and that they might be inflationary which “combined with the fact that policies announced did not credibly address key upcoming challenges caused by the cost of living crisis.” 
• The market reaction to the Energy Price Guarantee. The tax cuts in the mini-budget were originally calculated to cost £45bn, however, the much larger Energy Price Guarantee was predicted to cost £150bn, but the latter didn’t provoke the same response from investors in UK government debt. IPPR explain that if public borrowing is used in ways that are much more likely to increase GDP growth, such as public investment to protect incomes, spending and demand, then this is more sustainable for the public finances in the long term. Further, there was good evidence that the energy support package would reduce inflationary pressure.

‍

Reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio through contractionary policy is self-defeating. IPPR’s point is that the size of the hole in public finances changes depending upon the policies chosen to fill it. George Osborne (in)famously tried to reduce the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio in the 2010s by heavily focusing on cuts to public spending. This approach has been roundly criticised by major economic institutions as a failure; across 32 of 32 advanced economies, reduced government spending led to slower economic growth. Contractionary fiscal policy, such as certain tax rises and spending cuts reduce spending in the economy and therefore negatively impact growth, making the hole in the public finances larger. In other words, if you want to meet a debt-to-GDP target, then the GDP is as important as the debt.

• This recession could be worse than the 2010s. The Guardian’s Larry Elliot explains that attempting austerity again now will be worse than in the 2010s because, unlike in the 2010s, the Bank of England is now also tightening its monetary policy; the Bank predicted last week that “higher interest rates would push the economy into the longest recession since the 1930s…Hunt’s fiscal squeeze is likely to worsen the forecasts, and the Bank said the economy was already contracting and would continue to shrink for eight consecutive quarters to the summer of 2024.” 
• Failure to learn the mistakes of austerity. The Institute for Government warned that £40bn of departmental spending cuts would require budgets to fall by 7.8% in real terms - the same severity of austerity as in 2010-2015 - but public services are already more fragile than they were in 2010 and “the methods used in 2010 are no longer politically or practically viable.” The UN’s envoy on extreme poverty also warned Rishi Sunak that a new wave of austerity could violate the UK’s international human rights obligations by increasing hunger and malnutrition: “This is the worst time to impose such cuts. You do not impose austerity measures when the whole population is facing a cost of living crisis. What you do is you raise taxes on the rich, you raise taxes on corporations.”

‍

Avoiding the “doom-loop”. The CBI’s Tony Danker, head of the UK’s largest business lobby group, warned PM Rishi Sunak against repeating the mistakes of the Cameron-Osborne years and creating a contractionary ‘doom-loop’; where tax increases and spending cuts harm growth so “the country could end up in a similar doom loop where all you have to do is keep coming back every year to find more tax rises and more spending cuts because you’ve got no growth.” The rumoured Treasury calculations admit the risk of this ‘doom-loop’ taking hold where estimates of the initial fiscal hole rose from ~£30-40bn to £50bn because more tax rises or spending cuts “will worsen the economic outlook, which will in turn hit future tax revenues”.

• Counter-cyclical approaches for economic growth. The PM has recently appointed Onward’s Director, Will Tanner, as his deputy chief of staff. Onward have a published a new paper by Tim Pitt (previously special adviser to Conservative chancellor’s Philip Hammond and Sajid Javid) calling on Chancellor Hunt to “loosen the interpretation of fiscal rules” to enable more investment in human capital, infrastructure and R&D. Pitt recently argued that Conservative economics must adopt a more pragmatic approach to fiscal policy, where they are “prepared to use it aggressively in downturns, esp when monetary policy is at ZLB, while accepting need for debt to fall materially in good times to build space for that”.
• Alternative fiscal rules. IPPR explain that debt-to-GDP fiscal rules have significant drawbacks as they limit borrowing to invest, even when this could be growth-enhancing and ultimately reduce debt in the long term. They propose instead a debt-interest-to-GDP rule or a net worth rule. NEF propose replacing fiscal rules with a Fiscal Policy Committee housed at the OBR and given a mandate based on resource constraints, full capacity utilisation, the private sector balance sheet position, and public sector net worth. 

‍

Achieving debt sustainability through growth. IPPR criticise the IFS’s estimate that £25bn of spending cuts are needed to meet the government’s current debt-to-GDP rule because this is based on near 0% growth in the medium term and 1% rise in interest on public debt. They argue that if the UK returns to pre-pandemic growth and interest rates closer to 2%, then the UK can afford to run a deficit of £49bn until 2025 and still be stabilising its debt - with £74bn more fiscal space than the IFS’s estimate.

• So how do we achieve growth? Fresh forecasts from the Bank of England last week predicted no or negative GDP growth until mid-2024. This can be broken with careful targeted measures to protect incomes and demand, in areas that don’t stoke inflation. IPPR’s paper outlines a strategy to tackle the cost of living crisis while ensuring sustainable growth and sound finances in the future; they give options for raising taxes that dampen inflation risk while also improving efficiency, equity and behaviour change. Carys Roberts outlines this approach in the New Statesman: “The fiscally responsible approach is to build a strong economy through public investment and tax increases on the wealthy.”  (Reminder: the UK is still a low-tax nation compared to Western standards.)
• Fiscally responsible policy options for 2023. The Telegraph reports that the Chancellor is looking at changes to the headline rate, reliefs and allowances on Capital Gains Tax and considering raising taxes on dividends. There is also speculation about whether the government will abolish non-dom status and the shape of a redesigned windfall tax. (The IMF ranks the UK’s oil and gas tax rate as the lowest amongst major producers.) The Guardian also reports that Labour are working on a “big policy intervention that will be a major overhaul of the tax system”, looking at taxing wealth in particular. Tax Justice UK have outlined 5 changes to wealth taxes that can raise £37bn a year. (Check out Economist Arun Advani’s Wealth Tax Reform Calculator for different revenue-raising options.)  

‍

No public appetite for austerity. Another consideration in this debate is how politically deliverable a programme of fiscal restraint would be in practice. Public attitudes on the economy have shifted since the 2010s. Deficit management is much less salient in the public's judgments about economic performance than it was in 2013; voters are now “most likely to be influenced by information concerning inflation/increases in prices”. NatCen’s latest British Social Attitudes survey shows “Appetite for government intervention in the economy is rising, as is concern about inequality, and enthusiasm for redistribution of income from the better-off to the poorer”. Those who want to increase taxes and spend more on health, education and social benefits was at its nadir at 31% in 2010, but has been climbing since - since 2017 more of the public want the government to “increase taxes and spend more” than those who want it to “keep taxes and spending at the same level as now”. 62% of 2019 Conservative voters think wealthy people should pay more tax.

• The pandemic changed people's views on welfare. Pollster Sir John Curtis argues that the public is much more sympathetic to working age people in need and more tolerant of welfare spending than in the Cameron-Osborne years. More than two-thirds now believe that ordinary working people do not get their fair share of the nation’s wealth - the most since 1991 and 10% more than in 2019. There is also growing support for redistributing income from the better-off to those with less (+10% since 2019). 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the minimum wage and social security system don’t provide enough to live on. 

Splitting the bill for the cost of living crisis. The two week pause ahead of the Chancellor’s Autumn statement on 17th November has left plenty of room for speculation and debate about the likely contents. We will explore the wider macroeconomic context in next week’s Digest, but, for now, one question dominates: who should ultimately pay the bill for the cost of living crisis? 

• Filling the fiscal ‘black hole’. Jeremy Hunt reportedly “confronted” the Cabinet with a “demand to find new spending cuts” when he became Chancellor and reversed Kwarteng’s tax cutting mini-budget in a bid to repair the Conservatives reputation of fiscal responsibility, earlier in October. Bloomberg reported the Treasury has prepared a list of 104 spending cuts for the government to choose from in order to fill the £35bn fiscal ‘black hole’ which still remains to meet the fiscal rules Sunak had previously chosen as Chancellor. 
• Fiscal rules. However, as PEF’s James Meadway notes: “Change the forecasts, change the target, and the black hole shrinks.” The FT reports that the Chancellor might change fiscal rules to have debt to gdp ratios falling after five years, rather than three, so that “much of the fiscal pain will not be felt until after the next general election”. In a separate blog post, James explains how this leaves a “trap” for Labour who may be tempted to partly accept the premise of spending cuts in an attempt to appeal to perceived notions of fiscal responsibility. (Reminder: Across 32 of 32 advanced economies, reduced government spending led to slower economic growth and Osbourne-era austerity failed to reduce the UK’s debt to GDP ratio.) 
• Defining fiscal responsibility. The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues that the OBR “must stop pushing the economy into a contractionary vortex” as “Jeremy Hunt is more or less forced to tighten hard into the teeth of recession, even if such a course is macroeconomic lunacy”. He continues: “The clear danger is that the OBR mechanism will push us into ill-timed austerity, inflicting far more lasting damage than the storm of over the mini-Budget…until they reframe their definition of what constitutes budget responsibility, they are objectively complicit in economic vandalism.” (Check out NEF’s proposals for scrapping fiscal rules entirely and replacing them with ‘fiscal referees’ - a new Fiscal Policy Committee at the OBR.)

‍

Wealth tax reform is preferable to austerity. More recently, the Telegraph reported that “Hunt is considering up to £20 billion of tax rises in the [now delayed] Halloween budget, with high earners to bear the brunt of his quest to balance the books.” 

• Raising money without harming growth. The FT’s Martin Sandbu argues that the government should levy a 1% annual tax on net wealth “above the level needed to get into the top 10% richest in the UK” could raise £35bn and encourage more productive uses of capital.
• Other revenue-raisers that don’t harm the majority. Tax Justice UK has set out 5 ways the Chancellor could raise up to £37bn through wealth taxes. Taxing income from wealth at the same level as income from work could raise up to £14bn, applying national insurance to investment income could raise up to £8.6bn, a 1% wealth tax on assets over £10 million could bring in up to £10bn, ending inheritance tax loopholes could raise another £1.4bn and scrapping non-dom rules raises a final £3.2bn. (Guardian coverage from Rupert Neate.) 
• Wealth taxes are politically popular. Polling by Opinium on behalf of the Stop The Squeeze campaign has shown that a majority of voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019 would support wealthy individuals paying more in tax than they do now. Centre-right think tank Bright Blue’s sets out the Conservative case for reforming taxes on work and wealth: “A centre-right Government that is committed to ‘levelling up’ the UK should rebalance the tax system from income associated with work and effort and onto income associated with privilege and luck.”

‍

What about the energy sector? Chancellor Hunt had previously also avoided ruling out the introduction of a new windfall tax. Current loopholes in the current windfall tax on oil and gas producers mean that drilling in new oil fields (such as Equinor’s new site at Rosebank) amount to a net loss for the taxpayer. 

• Reforming the windfall tax. NEF calculated that reforming the windfall tax on oil and gas producers could raise an extra £9bn. The Counterbalance newsletter explains how to turn temporary windfall taxes into longer-term excess profit taxes on monopolies. The Balanced Economy Project argue that “a deeper and more long-lasting source of unproductive unearned income is, of course, monopoly power.” 
• Taxing dividends and share buybacks. Last week, Shell announced their 2nd highest quarterly profits ever as their profits increased by $5.4bn. IPPR and Common Wealth calculated that $4bn of increase went directly into share “buybacks” to artificially inflate the share price of the company. (BP made $8.2bn in Q3 and gave $2.5bn to shareholders via share buybacks.) Share buybacks hit record levels in 2022, where FTSE 100 companies have announced $46.9bn so far in 2022. IPPR’s George Dibb argues that share buybacks are “a symptom of a firm that can identify no productive investments beyond boosting their own value.”  (IPPR’s Shreya Nanda explained why share buybacks are part of a wider cycle of business failure in this thread.) The report finds that new taxes on share buybacks and dividends could raise up to £17bn per year, help encourage more productive uses of capital investment and avoid cutting public services even further.
• Lost revenue from private ownership. The TUC calculated that the cost of privatisation of the UK’s power sector means the public misses out on £63-122bn over the next two years (£4,400 per household). The TUC’s Mika Minio-Paluello stated: “If the UK had publicly owned energy like our European peers, the profits would instead flow to the public…£122 billion would have gone a long way to lower bills and retrofit our homes.”

‍

Stop The Squeeze. Nick Gutteridge reports that the Chancellor is “not considering measures that would hit the poorest Britons who are already struggling with rising prices.” A new coalition campaign, Stop The Squeeze, has launched calling on the government to deliver “a real plan for an affordable Britain” and tackle the cost of living crisis by guaranteeing affordable energy, boosting incomes, and raising taxes on wealth. The campaign has a wide range of supporting organisations from anti-poverty charities like Oxfam and Save the Children, climate campaigners like Uplift and Possible, progressive think tanks, trade unions and more. You can read more about their aims and get involved here.

• Public support? The new campaign group launched by releasing polling which demonstrates that only 1 in 5 of the voters that backed the Conservatives in 2019 believe cuts are inevitable in response to the current economic situation. The campaign also finds that 71% of the same voters believe that the minimum wage and social security system do not provide incomes people can live on.
• Uprating benefits. JRF has co-signed a letter with over 100 anti-poverty organisations calling on Rishi Sunak to “honour the promise he made this spring to increase benefits in line with inflation, and to do so now rather than waiting until April.”

New Chancellor, new fiscal plan. This week began with the new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announcing further U-turns on the government’s ‘mini-budget’, after Kwasi Kwarteng was sacked late last week. All of the tax cuts announced in the government’s Plan for Growth have been reversed, however the government still plans to abolish the Health and Social Care Levy and keep the cut to Stamp Duty. (HMT has listed the U-turns here.) 

• Financial markets dominated fiscal policy. In the words of Martin Lewis “Trussenomics totally hunted down and gone.” But, as IIPP’s Josh Ryan-Collins explains, “The defeat of free market ideology will be worthless if it results in a fear of public spending and an unquestioning faith in the markets.” Hunt justified the U-turns on tax cuts in an attempt to “reduce unhelpful speculation” ahead of the medium-term fiscal plan. The IFS has calculated the ‘credibility cost’ of the mini-budget was ~£10bn in extra debt payments each year as investors charged higher rates on government debt. 
• But what did bond markets actually fear? IIPP’s Josh Ryan-Collins makes the important point that “investors lost confidence in the government’s ability to bring down prices”, not expansionary fiscal policy in general: “High inflation reduces the real value of government debt and will lead to higher interest rates that will push down their price. This is bad news for the investors who hold such debt, hence the sell-off of bonds…it was the £45bn of tax cuts on top of already rising inflation that the market didn’t like. Even bond traders understand that making rich people richer is likely to stoke inflation and won’t on its own increase growth.”
• New advisory council to calm markets? The Chancellor also announced a new board of economic advisors at the Treasury. Four have been announced at the time of writing; economist and former MPC member Andrew Sentance notes that the “problem is all members are from the financial sector” One advisor, Rupert Harrison, was George Osbourne’s Chief of Staff at the height of the austerity years, who is now working for the US investment management firm, Blackrock. (IIPP’s Josh Ryan-Collins also notes that Blackrock “are designers of the LDI schemes that created financial chaos over the last two weeks and required BoE bailouts.” Economist Carolyn Sissoko has a timely paper out on Financial Dominance: Why the ‘Market Maker of Last Resort’ Is a Bad Idea and What to Do About It.)

‍

Risk of reverting to austerity. The episode of ‘financial dominance’ over the government's fiscal policy has sparked renewed fears of spending cuts. The BBC reported that yesterday the Chancellor warned the Cabinet of “the extent of the black hole in government finances means he needs to find tens of billions to balance the books”, which may force some ministers to resign. Polling from Ipsos Mori has found ‘The level of the deficit’ is now 8th in the list of important economic indicators for the public. (A recent study published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health found there were 334,327 excess deaths in England linked to austerity from 2010-2018.)

• “Black holes'' and fiscal rules. BBC Newsnight’s Ben Chu calculates that a £38bn shortfall remains in the public finances to meet the government's fiscal rules - to have the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio falling at the end of three years. Hunt suggested that the measures will ‘raise’ £32bn every year but warned of more “difficult decisions” to come as the government tries to reduce its debt to GDP ratio through cutting spending. It is now widely acknowledged that Osborne-era experiment to  reduce UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio through austerity failed.
• You can’t cut your way to growth. Finance Watch’s report Fiscal Mythology Unmasked explains why debt-to-GDP ratios are poor arbitrary indicators for debt sustainability. For a modern explanation of fiscal responsibility, read Lord Nicholas Stern and Dimitri Zenghelis paper explaining why public investment in economic growth is key to debt sustainability: “G7 countries should increase post-pandemic public investment...recognise the potential economic and social returns to increasing public debt for the purpose of investment…[and wait] to pay off the public debt until the economy is undergoing robust growth.”

‍

Renewed call for wealth taxes to raise revenue. The Telegraph’s Tony Diver reports that “Labour is looking seriously at reform to capital gains tax – better balancing it with income tax – but rule out more radical measures that would tax assets directly.” Church Action for Tax Justice and several prominent UK Christian leaders have written to the Chancellor urging him to “introduce wealth taxes to reduce inequality, instead of cutting public services and benefits.” Tax Justice UK’s response to his announcement argued that “to avoid further austerity we need to tax wealth more. Capital gains taxes should be aligned with income tax rates. We should end inheritance tax loopholes open to the wealthy. And we need to tax the wealth of anyone with £10 million of assets.” 

• They can reduce inflation. The International Monetary Fund has urged the UK government to consider ‘raising windfall or wealth taxes’ to reduce inflationary pressure. This would be preferable, it argued, to the sole use of higher interest rates to tackle inflation. 
• And don’t have to compromise economic growth. Economists Linus Mattauch, David Klenert, Joseph Stiglitz and Ottmar Edenhofer have published a paper showing how governments can tax wealth to fund public investment and reduce wealth inequality, without compromising economic growth.

‍

Political flashpoint for energy bills in April 2023. Hunt announced the Energy Price Guarantee will now only remain in place until April, in order to avoid long-term exposure of the public finances to volatility in international gas prices. The Treasury is launching a review into how to support energy bills beyond April in ways that will lower cost to taxpayers whilst remaining supporting household needs. Sky’s Rob Powell’s analysis of leaked photos also suggest the Treasury is looking at a targeted grant scheme for vulnerable businesses, such as the hospitality and the most energy intensive sectors.

• Macroeconomic impacts of unfreezing the Energy Price Cap. Economist Samuel Tombs calculates that “current wholesale prices point to a 73% jump in energy bills, to £4334…That's a big change in the outlook for CPI inflation (↑) and GDP (↓).” (For an explanation of how freezing (or lowering) the Energy Price Cap has deflationary effects, read our previous digest covering research from IPPR.)
• A package to fix the UK's energy price crisis. NEF proposes to replace the Energy Price Cap with a new system for ‘free basic energy’ as part of a rising block tariff, so that all households receive the same amount of energy for free, and everyone pays the same premium price or further energy above this. They also argue that the government should create a new permanent energy element in all means-tested benefits – similar to housing or child benefit – to help the poorest families cover their remaining energy bill, paid for by increasing capital gains tax. Finally, the package includes a £750 “cost of living allowance" for all households funded through a reformed windfall tax on oil & gas.the package would  The package costs half that of freezing the price cap for 12 months, increases incentives to improve home energy efficiency and increases disposable incomes for 80% of families on average (for the poorest 50% it would be enough to fully reverse the squeeze since April 2021). Fuel Poverty Action is handing in a petition with nearly 650,000 signatures to 10 Downing St. today calling for a universal band of free energy, paid for by ending fossil fuel subsidies, windfall taxes on excess profits and higher tariffs on excessive energy use.

Mortgage affordability and the cost of living crisis. As financial markets remain in flux following the government’s mini-budget, commentators and analysts have been debating the effects of rising interest rates on the housing market. Higher interest rate expectations are leading to soaring costs of mortgage repayments for homeowners, exacerbating the already chronic affordability crisis in the UK housing market.

• Housing market crisis? Last week, the interest rate on a typical two-year fixed rate mortgage surpassed 6% for the first time in 14 years. If mortgage rates remain at 6%, a family with a £300,000 mortgage, coming off a 1.5% fixed interest rate would end up paying £659.79 more a month in mortgage repayments (a ~65% increase). Sky’s Ed Conway notes that “the impact for mortgage affordability will be the worst this country has seen since the late 1980s/early 1990s…the worst housing crash in the modern era.” MoneySavingExpert Martin Lewis argues that a “ticking time bomb” on mortgages may come in the Spring, where higher mortgage rates interact with more difficult affordability tests and falling house prices. He called for a raft of regulatory changes put in place before Christmas, including “forcing the banks - with the extra money they’re making by putting mortgage rates up and not putting saving rates up - [to have] much stronger forbearance measures for people who can’t pay.”
• End of an era. The sharp rise in the Bank of England base rate and therefore in mortgage rates brings to an end the post-financial crisis era of rock bottom rates, which has been the only reality that many younger homeowners have known. This era has been defined by cheap mortgages, soaring house prices, and demand-side policy interventions such as Help to Buy, which have encouraged people to borrow huge sums in the belief that rates would remain low and the value of their property would continue to rise. Adjusting to the end of this era will be painful, especially when put alongside high levels of inflation.‍
• Ongoing fiscal fallout and interest rate predictions. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has brought forward the date of the next fiscal event to the end of October in an attempt to calm financial markets. There will now be a ‘medium-term fiscal plan’ with associated independent assessments and forecasts from the OBR, but no formal spending review until next year. Chair of the Treasury Select Committee Mel Stride says that if the OBR’s forecast “lands well with markets then the MPC meeting on 3rd Nov may result in a smaller rise in interest rates”. However, the interest rate on government borrowing is now (at the time of writing) almost the level before the Bank of England announced its bailout less than two weeks ago, making a steeper interest rate rise more likely. (Read last week's Digest for more on the impact of the government’s tax-cutting fiscal plans on financial markets.)

‍

The housing market and the Conservative’s electoral coalition. A drop in house prices and increase in mortgage interest rates could harm the government's chances of winning the next election. Resolution Foundation’s Torsten Bell highlighted that although 50% of Conservative voters own their home outright, two in five households in Red Wall seats will be affected by rising mortgage rates. A recent YouGov poll for the Times asked respondents who is most to blame for fixed-term mortgage rates rising beyond 6%: 52% blamed the UK government, 24% blamed the global economy and 5% blamed the Bank of England. Academics Jane Green and Roosmarijn de Geus have previously highlighted the cost of living crisis could ‘very easily change’ the Conservatives’ electoral fortunes as more people become economically insecure. 

‍

Could a housing market dip increase affordability? Credit Suisse have predicted house prices “could easily fall 10 to 15 percent” next year. City economist Roger Bootle argues that this “plunge in house prices is now inevitable” as interest rates constrain people's ability to afford to buy housing and demand falls through the floor. However, he notes that there may be benefits to this as, “For new borrowers, lower prices will improve affordability”, but they must fall gently as “it is in no one’s interest that they should crash” due to the risks of financial and macroeconomic instability. (For more on the relationship between the financial system, housing and land read this summary of Rethinking the Economics of Land and Housing)

• Navigating a crash. If a wave of homeowners are forced to sell their homes, there is a risk that richer buyers (without the need for expensive mortgages) could snap up more of the UK’s housing stock, further increasing asset inequality. An independent report for the Labour Party from 2019, Land for the Many, explored the risk of falling house prices for recent buyers. Chapter 4 proposes setting up a Common Ground Trust, a publicly-backed but member-owned organisation that supports housing demand by buying up the land underneath houses being sold. Tenants apply to take out lower mortgages on the bricks and mortar, usually at only 30% of the average property price. In a situation of lower housing demand, having a public entity standing ready to buy up properties that come on the market can ensure that tenants can afford the houses being sold to protect demand. Longer term, this also “creates a mechanism for the gradual, voluntary, but potentially large scale, transfer of land – our single most valuable asset – into a form of shared ownership, so that the associated land rents can be pooled and distributed according to need (in the form of discounts), rather than captured by private landowners and banks at society’s expense.”

‍

Could renters benefit from falling house prices? The New Statesman’s Emma Haslett explores whether falling house prices could bring a “silver lining for the UK’s beleaguered renters”. Katrina Hill, of the estate agent Chestertons, explains how decreasing mortgage affordability could lead to more homeowners renting out their houses when they need to move, instead of selling their homes at lower prices. This would, she argues, create more rental stock and provide a solution to “one of the rental market’s most inflationary problems”. However, Haslett argues that instead, landlords are more likely to pass on higher mortgage rates in the form of increased rents meaning that it is “unlikely” that renters will benefit from falling house prices. 

• Rent controls are growing in popularity. Rent controls are a form of price control which are used in many cities across the world to prevent housing becoming unaffordable. Economist J W Mason explains how and when they work (for a wider survey of the evidence see this by the Economics Observatory). The Scottish government has recently introduced legislation which will freeze most rents until the end of March 2023 and put a six month ban on evictions. However, exceptions apply to situations in which a landlord faces increased property costs, mortgage interest payments or some insurance costs leading the Scotland tenants’ union, Living Rent, to say that the legislation is not comprehensive enough. The New Economics Foundation has called on the government to “protect those most exposed to the cost of living crisis” and freeze social rents at a cost of £2bn.‍
• Renters reform. The Times’ Steven Swinford reports that Liz Truss “is shelving Michael Gove's plans to end no-fault evictions”. However this move has met with criticism, including from Onward’s Will Tanner who argued that “there is now broad consensus between landlords, tenants and campaigners on the package of reforms that's needed, including abolition of no fault evictions. Everyone agrees.”

Financial markets vs neoliberalism? As economic fallout from the ‘mini-budget’ continues and a chaotic Conservative party conference concludes, Onward’s Will Tanner writes “The party of free markets has been clobbered by the invisible hand.” This week the Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng attempted to calm financial markets by bringing forward publication of his plan for how the government will pay for their planned tax cuts (see our analysis of the mini-budget here). The Bank of England’s Deputy Governor, Sir Jon Cunliffe, has written to the Treasury Select Committee to clarify the mini-budgets' direct impact on undermining the price of long-term government gilts, which triggered panic among pension funds who were highly exposed to falls in gilt prices, in turn prompting a significant intervention from the Bank to sure up gilt prices. 

• The smallest of U-turns. After the IMF recommended that the government “consider ways to provide support that is more targeted and reevaluate the tax measures, especially those that benefit high income earners”, and amid pressure from backbench Conservative MPs, the Chancellor quickly announced a U-turn on their plans to abolish the top rate of income tax, claiming that the tax cut was a “distraction” from their “overriding mission” to deliver economic growth. But this was not an admission that tax cuts are a poor strategy for growing the economy (as 50 years of evidence suggests) because £43bn of the original £45bn package of tax cuts still remain. In the words of the IFS’s Paul Johnson the U-turn has “limited fiscal significance” as it “represented only a small fraction of the Chancellor's mini-Budget announcements.” (The Resolution Foundation’s analysis shows that the remaining tax cuts still disproportionately benefit the top 5%.) 
• Staying the course despite widespread opposition. The government is (at the time of writing) still committed to a tax-cutting growth strategy, despite widespread opposition from commentators in the Economist, the FT, the Telegraph and others. Sovereign credit rating agency Fitch lowered its UK rating from “stable” to “negative”, despite the 45p u-turn: “We consider that statements by the Chancellor hinting at the possibility of additional tax cuts and the likely modification of fiscal rules legislated in January reduce the predictability of fiscal policy”. The CBI’s Tony Danker told LBC that abolishing the 45p rate of income tax wouldn’t even be “in the top 30 things that would get growth going”. The Director of the LSE, Minouche Shafik, notes that the World Bank “did hundreds of investor surveys on what determined their willingness to invest in a country...Low taxes and enterprise zones were always near the bottom."
• A reminder on government borrowing. It is important to note that financial markets did not react negatively to the £150bn package of energy bills support. In the words of Wall St Journal’s Jon Sindreu: “the turmoil in financial markets may have more to do with the plan’s unclear return on investment than its hefty borrowing requirements… The problem with ‘Trussonomics’ isn’t as much the spending as where the spending will go.” Read NEF’s Frank van Lerven’s piece explaining the difference between borrowing for investment and borrowing for increasing the wealth of the already-rich. 

‍

Free-market zealots in the driver’s seat. Commentary has shone a light on the influence of free-market ideologues over the government’s new economic strategy. The Spectator’s Fraser Nelson notes that Liz Truss’s “premiership has so far been distinguished by major decisions being taken by a tiny number of advisers, very much excluding her cabinet.” Those advisors include many alumni of free market think tanks. The IEA’s director, Mark Littlewood’s praised  the Chancellor’s “revolutionary new economic playbook” after the mini-budget was announced, arguing it “could be seen as merely the first move in a much wider and most intrepid game of economic chess”.

• Libertarians vs communitarians. Not all conservatives are happy. Onward’s Will Tanner argued that “the libertarians who claim a monopoly on conservatism are not, in fact, conservative” after the IEA’s Kristian Niemetz criticised “communitarian bores”. More splits have occurred between conservative environmentalists such as William Hague reiterating “why an attack on nature is a mistake Tories can avoid” after the IEA’s Andy Mayer called for scrapping the Net Zero target at their panel during the Conservative Party Conference. Unherd’s Aris Roussinos notes: “there is no home for postliberal Tories, always wary of the free market as a force destructive to tradition and social order, in the Conservative party that now exists…the libertarians have discredited their doctrine as electoral poison in a few short and tumultuous days.”

‍

Will they drive the Conservative’s electoral fortunes off a cliff? While the market reaction to the mini-budget may have been dramatic, it is the seismic shift in the polls that will really have Conservatives worried, with current numbers suggesting a landslide win for Labour at the next election. Boris Johnson’s former Director of Communications Lee Cain suggests that Liz Truss’ reputation may never recover because: “Beginning her tenure with a flurry of unpopular policies without considering how they would land as a package has allowed her opponents to frame her government as being in favour of the uber-wealthy, at the expense of those on lower incomes.” Cain also notes that “This will be exacerbated if the government drops the existing pledge to raise benefits in line with inflation.“ 

• The politics of austerity, again. Media commentary has pointed to the difficulty of finding departmental budgets with anything significant left to cut to pay for the tax cuts, but the FT’s Stephen Bush points out that political opposition on the Conservative benches also makes deeper rounds of austerity difficult to deliver: “There is no viable course on tax and spend which won’t be vetoed by one faction in her party or another”. This has played out over conference with senior Conservatives such as Michael Gove and cabinet member Penny Mordant voicing their opposition to rumours of uprating benefits inline with earnings rather than inflation. The Resolution Foundation calculated this could save £5bn, but reduce the already stretched incomes of low income families by £500 and “would therefore deepen - and extend - the cost of living crisis well into next year, and possibly beyond that”. NEF’s Frank van Lerven argued that “Instead of looking for funding cuts across the public services... it [the government] could stop paying interest altogether” on reserves it owes to commercial banks. (See NEF’s paper on the case for a tiered reserve monetary policy framework.)
• More tax cut U-turns coming? Tax Justice UK argue that the government should “scrap its inequality budget’, particularly given they are still committed to revoking the planned corporation tax rise, which costs a similar amount to the £18bn spending cuts coming to public services. NEF’s Jeevun Sandher calculated that more than half of the corporation tax cut will go to the most profitable companies and the IPPR’s George Dibb explained why won’t increase business investment. (Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith thinks the corporation tax vote won’t go through parliament until Spring.)

“A Fairer, Greener Future”. If there is one economic message Labour wanted people to take away from their party conference in Liverpool, it is that their plan for growth is a green industrial strategy. The Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, and later the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, used their conference speeches to outline an alternative to Liz Truss’ “trickle-down” vision for growth which Starmer says has “lost control of the economy” and “crashed the pound”. In launching a “Green Prosperity Plan”, Starmer regularly linked growth to the climate, outlining a future in which people look at Labour as the party that “built a fairer, greener, more dynamic Britain by tackling the climate emergency head on and used it to create the jobs, the industries, the opportunities of the future”. The word “mission” was used several times to describe the proposed Green Prosperity Plan, echoing Mariana Mazzucato’s language of a “mission economy” in which productivity, industrial strategy and strong economies are built by a state focus on country-wide missions. In this case, the mission is tackling the climate crisis, with Labour’s 2022 strategy putting meat on the bones of Rachel Reeve’s £28 billion climate pledge last year.

• National wealth fund. In plans outlined on Monday, Rachel Reeves announced that in Government, Labour would introduce a National Wealth Fund for green investment, inspired by the sovereign wealth funds of the likes of Norway and France. The fund would allow the state to retain a share in the renewable assets in which it invests. The £8 billion fund acts as Labour’s answer to levelling up, with £2 billion earmarked for eight new ‘gigafactories’ in the West Midlands, the North East, the North, West and the South West. A further £3 billion would be spent on six new clean steel plants Cardiff, Rotherham, Sheffield, Port Talbot and Scunthorpe. £1 billion of the fund is set aside to create “net-zero industrial clusters” in Grangemouth, South Wales, Humberside, Teesside, Merseyside, Southampton and the Peak District. Both Reeves and Starmer stressed the role of the private sector, with Starmer saying that Labour would “make sure” that public spending would spur on private investment. The New Statesman’s Freddie Hayward argues that the problem with the national wealth fund, along with Labour’s other big commitments, is that the economy is in a very different place to what it was back when Reeves began writing her speech in July.
• Great British Energy. One of the most significant announcements was saved for Starmer’s speech on Tuesday: the establishment of a publicly owned Great British Energy company within Labour’s first year. Starmer said that GB Energy would be “right for jobs…right for growth…right for energy independence from tyrants like Putin”. The plan does not involve nationalising any existing companies. Instead, GB Energy would enter the market as an energy producer that would compete with private firms. Though operationally independent, GB Energy would have a mandate to invest in clean energy, which it could do individually or in partnership with the private sector. Labour hopes that GB Energy would be able to make riskier investments, such as new tidal technology or modular reactors, that the private sector may often “shy away from”. Public ownership campaigners We Own It welcomed the move as “a hugely important first step” towards a shift in energy ownership. Common Wealth’s Mat Lawrence said that public ownership of energy was “superior and more affordable” due to the state’s ability to invest in clean energy technology at lower rates and the fact that it would not have to consider shareholder interests. 
• 2030 clean energy target. Labour’s proposed industrial strategy is underpinned by a mission to reach 100% clean energy by 2030, giving the party less than six years to achieve this mission should it come to power at the next general election in 2024. Targets include doubling the UK’s onshore wind capacity, trebling solar power, quadrupling offshore wind, investment in tidal, hydrogen, nuclear, carbon capture and the insulation of 19 million homes. Starmer hailed the mission, which would start within 100 days of governing, as “the biggest partnership between government, business and communities this country has ever seen”.  Right wing commentators have criticised the plans as hypocritical for still using fossil fuels as Labour have said that it would “maintain … a strategic reserve of backup gas power” if renewable resources were scarce. However, Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans argues that it is perfectly possible for the UK to rely 100% on clean energy, “even during so-called “kalte dunkelflaute” with cold weather and little wind or sun”.
• What business wants. Labour’s plans involve significant state intervention in the economy, but Labour insist they are more in tune with business opinion than the government. Rachel Reeves argued: “When I talk to businesses, they don’t tell me that their priority is corporation tax”. Likewise, “don’t be fooled into thinking they buy into the Tory trickle-down fantasy”, said Starmer. Instead, Labour affirmed its commitment to replacing business rates with a “fairer system”. While many welcomed the proposals, some businesses criticised the proposals as “woolly” and expressed concerns that business rates could be replaced with a Land Value Tax. 

‍

Public services. Starmer focused on public services for much of his speech, saying that “Strong public services are the foundation of a successful economy– always”. Labour have rejected a narrative that spending on public services must be balanced with helping the economy, instead arguing that long NHS waiting lists and expensive childcare are some of the factors undermining economic performance. However, Starmer also warned that while he “would love to stand here and say Labour will fix everything”, the “damage [the Conservatives] have done” will mean that “the rescue will be harder than ever”. 

• Health. Health made up a large chunk of Labour’s announcements on public services, with Shadow Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, stressing the need to “modernise and change the NHS”. NHS workforce announcements included doubling the number of medical training places and creating an extra 10,000 nursing and midwifery clinical placements each year. Streeting also announced 8,500 additional mental health workers while Rachel Reeves affirmed last year’s pledge of one month waiting times for mental health support. 
• Childcare. Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson used her speech to focus heavily on childcare announcements, saying that a Labour government would “build a modern childcare system” including fully funded breakfast clubs for every primary school in England. Phillipson used social infrastructure framing around her childcare announcements, saying that giving “mams and dads choices” would “help us build the economy we all need and the society we all want”. Labour have hinted that more policy on childcare will be forthcoming, and a new internal pressure group has been formed to argue for childcare reform.

‍

Equality and work. The government’s new economic strategy also opened the space for Labour to make a more philosophical argument about the relationship between equality and prosperity, with Starmer saying that “Britain won’t be better off just because we make the rich, richer”. Inequality and low pay were central to Starmer’s critique of Britain’s low growth, arguing that insecure, low-paid work and public services that can’t support people make for “weak” economic foundations for growing an economy. 

• Pay. Rachel Reeves announced that Labour would introduce a “genuine Living Wage” that “reflects the real cost of living”, though what this figure would exactly be is so far unclear. The announcement comes as the Living Wage Foundation, supported by Resolution Foundation research, raised its living wage by the largest margin since it was established to £10.90 an hour (£11.95 in London). The TUC has previously called for a £15 minimum wage.
• Industrial relations. Rachel Reeves announced that if elected, she would “bring together a National Economic Council that will bring together industry and trade unions, so working people and businesses were at the heart of economic decision-making”. The Guardian’s Larry Elliot described the announcement as “a revival of the tripartite approach pioneered in the early 1960s and scrapped by John Major three decades later”. This comes on the back of a previous set of policies dubbed a ‘New Deal for Working People’ including fair pay agreements.
• Tax. Labour have said they would not reverse the Government’s cut in the basic rate of income tax, but there was a clear message that tax cuts for the rich would not be welcome in a Labour government. On the Government’s recent cut in the top rate of tax, Starmer told conference: “Don’t Forgive. Don’t Forget”. He also suggested that corporation tax cuts are not a priority for business. 
• Home ownership. Starmer pitched Labour as “the party of home ownership in Britain today”, setting a target of 70% home ownership. The Labour leader also stressed that home ownership support will be focused on first time buyers, saying that Labour would introduce a mortgage guarantee scheme. 

£45bn worth of tax cuts by 2026/7. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced the biggest tax cutting event since 1972 in a ‘mini-budget’ aimed at ending the UK economy’s ‘cycle of stagnation’ and boosting growth. The IFS’s Paul Johnson noted the similarities with former chancellor Anthony Barber’s attempted a ‘dash for growth’ via tax cuts, which ultimately failed and led to stagflation. The Resolution Foundation notes that “the decision to combine the largely unavoidable higher deficit caused by rising energy prices/interest rates with permanent tax cuts will drive up borrowing by £411bn in coming years”. (NB. See NEF’s Frank van Lerven’s paper explaining when borrowing is good and when it is bad.)

• Growth via tax cuts? 'Growth is not as high as it needs to be, which has made it harder to pay for public services, requiring taxes to rise,' said Kwarteng. 'This cycle of stagnation has led to the tax burden being forecast to reach the highest levels since the late 1940s. We are determined to break that cycle. We need a new approach for a new era focused on growth'. (For more resources on the relationship between tax cuts and economic growth, read our previous digest.)
• This approach lacks evidence. Trickle down economics has been debunked, perhaps most comprehensively by analysis published by the LSE which found that tax cuts for the rich have not had a significant impact on unemployment or growth, but they have increased income inequality. IIPP’s Josh Ryan-Collins provided a thorough critique of the package as a strategy to increase economic growth: “Firstly, it is well established that tax cuts have a weaker impact on growth than public spending, as households and firms save a proportion of the new income. Second, wealthier people tend to spend a smaller proportion of any new income than poorer households, so further weakening the multiplier effect of the borrowing. Third, the major challenge facing the UK economy is a lack of public and private capital investment; and there is no evidence that cutting business or personal taxes results in more investment, employment or growth.” 

‍

Which taxes have been cut? 

• Income tax. The 45% higher rate of income tax has been abolished and the basic rate of income tax will be cut to 19p in April 2023 (a year earlier than planned). IPPR’s Henry Parkes calculated that the personal income tax cuts “overwhelmingly channel cash to the richest households, with nearly half (48%) going to the richest decile” and those who live in London and the South East.
• NICs. The government will cancel the increase in National Insurance Contributions in November. This was originally dubbed as the ‘Health and Social Care Levy’, branded to raise money for the NHS. However achieving the Chancellor’s key metric for fiscal sustainability (falling debt) by the mid-20s will require spending cuts of £35bn by 2026-27.
• Corporation tax. Kwarteng cancelled the planned corporation tax rise to 25% which was previously promised by ex-Chancellor Rishi Sunak. The new chancellor vowed 'we will have the lowest rate of corporation tax in the G20’, but, as the BBC’s Andy Verity notes, business tax cuts don’t necessarily lead to growth, e.g. if £18bn worth of tax cuts gets spent share buybacks rather than investments that improve productivity. Further, the Women’s Budget Group notes that this cut will largely benefit men, who are more likely to be businesses owners and shareholders.
• Investment zones. The Chancellor announced the government is “in discussions with 38 local authorities to establish investment zones in England.” These are areas with localised deregulated planning permission and lower taxes aimed to “encourage rapid development and business investment”. Fair Tax Foundation’s Paul Monaghan explained how this “mini-tax haven network” distorts local economic activity and depresses areas around the zones as firms move to exploit tax and regulatory advantages. Women’s Budget Group highlights HMT’s previous studies which showed enterprise zones only creating 32% of the jobs expected, which were mainly low-skilled.
• Stamp duty. The government raised stamp duty threshold from £125,000 to £250,000 and also increased the threshold for first-time buyers to pay stamp duty from £300,000 to £425,000 and enabled them to claim relief on properties up to a value of £625,000 (up from £500,000), partly as an attempt to prop up a housing market that is being depressed by spiralling mortgage costs. NEF’s Frank van Lerven notes that stamp duty cuts increase asset prices and make housing more unaffordable. Housing market analyst Neal Hudson notes that the previous stamp duty holidays were “a tax cut for the top end of the housing market with large numbers of investors and second home buyers also taking advantage of the savings”. IPPR’s Shreya Nanda argues replacing stamp duty with an ongoing proportional property tax would be a fairer way of building a stronger economy. Her previous paper outlines the economic benefits and explains how the political barriers could be overcome.
• Other measures. Aside from tax cuts, the mini-budget also included a number of other controversial measures. The Chancellor placed further restrictions on the right to strike, with a pledge to introduce minimum service levels and to force unions to ballot on every pay offer. There was also an announcement of further obligations on universal credit claimants to demonstrate they are seeking work or face cuts to their benefits (See our previous digest for more on the economics of sanctions). In a move welcomed by climate campaigners, the Chancellor lifted the restrictions on onshore wind development, and provided a small amount of extra money for home insulation projects.

‍

Responses: Tax cuts mainly benefit rich men. Many responses highlighted the distributional impact of the tax cuts being “one of the most regressive in living memory”. The Resolution Foundation calculated that almost half (45%) of the gains from personal tax cuts will go to the richest 5% alone, while just 12% of the gains will go to the poorest half of households. Women’s Budget Group have calculated that “Around 80% of those who benefit from the nearly £2.4bn a year spent cutting the 45% tax rate will be men” and that “77% of workers who earn too little to pay income tax, so will gain nothing from the nearly £5.3bn a year spent cutting the basic rate, are women.” The TUC dubbed the budget “Robin Hood in reverse”.

• Inflation and monetary policy. Financial markets appear to have lost confidence in the government, with the pound at a 37-year low against the dollar at the time of writing and yields on 10-year government debt jumping to almost 4%. IIPP’s Josh Ryan Collins notes that the collapse in the exchange rate will add even more inflationary pressure through rising import costs. The tax cuts are likely to provoke a sharper contractionary response from the Bank of England, which already increased interest rates again this week; the market is potentially predicting an unprecedented emergency hike and foreign central banks have also been applying pressure. 
• Free market think tanks in the driving seat. ConservativeHome’s Founder Tim Montgomerie called the mini-budget a “massive moment” for free market think tank, the IEA, who have been advocating for many tax cuts for years. Similarly, the CPS’s Director Robert Colvile called it a “CPS full house”. The TaxPayers’ Alliance’s John O’Connell welcomed “the most taxpayer-friendly budget in recent memory” and called on the Treasury to “get serious on spending and ensure borrowing doesn’t weigh down on generations to come.” ‍
• Public not convinced. Snap polling from YouGov gas found that the tax package is being met with scepticism by voters. 52% of voters said they thought the measures would not be effective at growing the economy, compared to just 19% who think it will lead to growth. Meanwhile only 19% of voters think the budget will leave them better off, and an overwhelming majority think that the richest in society will benefit the most. Interestingly, even a majority of Conservative voters agree with this assessment. Further polling by Patriotic Millionaires found strong support (70%) for raising taxes on extreme wealth to help cover the cost of living crisis and pay for public services, with a majority (64%) of Conservative voters also in agreement.

Energy Price Guarantee. Freezing consumer energy prices at current levels or below has become a key policy demand from all sides of the political spectrum over recent months (see our recent New Economy Digest where we have examined various proposals to freeze the energy price cap). Pressure on the government to take action intensified over the summer as Ofgem announced that the energy price cap would increase to £3,549 per year from October. Last week, after mounting pressure, the new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced an ‘Energy Price Guarantee’ package which will limit average annual household bills to £2,500 over the next two years. The plan also involves retaining the £400 energy bill discount as well as a temporary suspension of green levies, bringing down bills by a further £150. 

• Support for businesses. Though support for households spans a two year period, support for businesses and non-domestic energy users is capped at six months. After this, the Government will provide targeted support to “vulnerable industries” following a review of the businesses that need to be targeted. However, businesses may face delays of several weeks in receiving this support. Emma McClarkin, the chief executive of industry body, the British Beer and Pub Association, said these businesses “will not be able to wait days, let alone months to get clarity on their energy bill”. The TUC has highlighted that there is no guarantee that the support for businesses will be used to protect jobs. 
• Liquidity support for energy companies. The plan will not be funded, as some have suggested, through further windfall taxes on energy companies. Instead, the Government will provide a £40 billion “liquidity facility” to support energy companies deal with market volatility. Progressive Economy Forum’s James Meadway compares the six month package for regular businesses with “the extraordinary generosity the government has found for the energy companies” through liquidity support. However, even this support for energy “middlemen” pales in comparison to the excess profits that energy producers will be able to continue making thanks to the government scheme, he argues. 
• Oil and gas extraction. The Government aims to increase domestic energy production by controversially lifting the ban on fracking and licensing new North Sea oil and gas projects. The first fracking licence in nearly three years is due to be issued as soon as next week, despite warnings from the British Geological Survey (BGS) about the “significant existing knowledge gaps” on the link between earthquakes and fracking. The publication of the report has been postponed due to the death of Queen Elizabeth II. “A wave of protests” is likely over the coming months as campaigners plan to step up action in response to Government plans to double down on fossil fuel extraction.

‍

Is it enough? The Energy Price Guarantee caps bills at £2,500 per year, which is still significantly higher than last year’s cap of £1,138. Some have criticised the plan for not targeting support to lower income households. The Institute for Fiscal Studies outlines how over half of the £60 billion earmarked for households will go to the top half of the income distribution. Consumer finance expert Martin Lewis also highlighted that the plan “means those with the biggest bills (often the wealthiest) gain the most”. Through the case study of one family, the Guardian explores how households will still suffer this winter despite the Energy Price Guarantee.

• Won’t somebody think of the price signal? One additional criticism of a price freeze is that it will do little to discourage energy saving in a time of scarcity as it disrupts the price signal. Some have warned that this could lead to blackouts and rationing this winter. 
• Impact on inflation. The Government has argued that its new plan will curb inflation, but figures suggest that lowering energy prices, rather than maintaining them, would have a much more significant impact on inflation. Research conducted by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) finds that while maintaining energy bills at current levels could reduce projected inflation by 3.9%, lowering prices to the level of the October 2021 cap could reduce project inflation by 5.6%. 

‍

Funding the freeze. The Telegraph reports that the government is still unclear about the exact cost of the scheme, and may only announce the cost for an initial period of a few months. The plan is expected to cost around £150 billion, however this could be more depending on the wholesale gas market. For comparison, £70 billion was allocated to the pandemic furlough scheme. It will be funded by borrowing rather than an extension of the windfall tax on energy companies as many have called for, however this has not been outlined in any great detail. The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ Paul Johnson said: “Given the scale of the package, the failure to provide any official sense of a costing was extraordinary, and deeply disappointing”.  

• “Tax profits properly”. Energy bill support could be partially funded by a 95% tax on the “record breaking profits” of oil and gas producers, according to Tax Justice UK. Tax Justice UK’s analysis shows that UK oil and gas producers are predicted to make £51 billion in excess profits over the next year, which is nearly four times more than the £13.5bn excess profits predicted in May. Such a tax would raise £44 billion a year for two years, which would represent a significant chunk of the £150 billion expected to be spent on the Energy Price Guarantee. 
• Creating future problems. Despite the opportunity to raise revenue through taxing excess profits, the Government’s decision to fund the scheme through borrowing is “an unnecessary waste of its capacity to borrow and creating the risk of a future row about the size of the government debt and the need for spending cuts”, argues James Meadway. Stephen Bush argues that this marks a “new fiscal policy era” in which borrowing is the order of the day. 

‍

Free basic energy? An alternative plan has been put forward by the New Economics Foundation, who argue that a short-term price freeze should be superseded by tariff reform including a system of free basic energy. Under this system households would be entitled to a basic allowance of free energy, with additional usage charged in rising block tariffs. NEF’s Alfie Stirling argues that this would protect the lowest income households and discourage excess energy usage, while costing the government less than the price freeze. NEF has also proposed a new energy element of universal credit to ensure more targeted support.

Green finance. While most proposals for funding the green transition focus on fiscal policy, private financing will also play a key role as the need for more green investment intensifies. Creating the conditions for that private green investment is a key policy challenge, and one that governments around the world are grappling with. Much of the debate so far has occurred in an era of historically low interest rates, but that era may be coming to a close with rising base rates in response to high inflation. How to adapt to this new lending environment becomes increasingly urgent as there is a risk of vital green investment slowing down at a point where we need it to accelerate.

• The green finance gap. This year, the UK government received two awards from the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI) for its work as a “global leader in green finance”. This comes despite the fact that there is a large gap in green finance with the Climate Change Committee estimating that annual capital investment needs to increase by around £50 billion per year in the second half of the decade.
• Private sector investment. Private sector green investment currently falls far short of what is needed according to Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) statistics. The OBR estimates that private sector investment must exceed £30bn of additional green investment over the next three years which would be a 10% rise from current levels. However, UK private sector green investment grew by roughly 0% in the three years leading up to the pandemic meaning that this would be a significant jump. At the same time, since signing the Paris Agreement, UK banks have financed over £287 billion worth of fossil fuel projects with over £200 billion of this coming from HSBC and Barclays alone. 
• Interest rates and the impact on green finance. In 2020, the Climate Change Committee argued that “historically low interest rates” should be taken advantage of to further green investment. However, as inflationary pressures have grown this year and central banks have steadily increased base rates, green finance is already starting to suffer. The issuance of green bonds globally fell by 34.63% from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, according to the Climate Bonds Initiative, or CBI. China was the leading issuer for green debt in the first three months of 2022 with $21.4 billion green bonds issued, followed by Germany and France. 
• Financial Services and Markets Bill. The Financial Service and Markets Bill has its second reading in the House of Commons on 7 September and is an opportunity to implement a statutory objective requiring regulators to ensure financial institutions make progress against their net zero transition plans, according to Green Alliance. For more on the bill, see our previous Digest. 

‍‍

Greening targeted credit policy. The Bank of England must adapt its “policy toolkit” to combat the climate and cost of living crises, according to a new report by the New Economics Foundation (NEF). NEF argues that instead of “demand management relying on a blunt single interest rate tool”, green targeted credit policy interventions could both help the transition to net zero while also enabling the bank to better meet its price and financial stability targets. The report notes that both China and Japan have recently greened their targeted credit policy in the form of refinancing operations providing cheap credit to banks to lend for sustainable investments. NEF makes five recommendations for how to green targeted credit policy: 

• Repurposing the Term Funding Scheme (TFS). The TFS offers funding to banks lending to businesses and households on specific conditions on rates either close to or at the base rate. The TFS could be used to incentivise projects such as retrofitting or investment in electric vehicles and related infrastructure. 
• Decarbonise the existing TFS. As well as steering the TFS towards green investment, NEF also suggests ensuring that the current TFS is not implicitly subsidising banks to lend to carbon intensive activities. 
• Additional TFS conditionality. The TFS already requires banks to prove that they are using the TFS to expand their lending to households and firms, so a green TFS must also require evidence of lending to green initiatives, NEF argues. 
• Bank lending metrics and targets. While the Bank of England’s remit now accounts for climate change, it does not put quantitative targets on the central bank to plug the green investment gap. NEF suggests this should be changed and that a green TFS could be part of new quantitative targets.‍
• Lending to state-owned investment banks. Finally, NEF suggests that the TFS could be extended to the state-owned investment banks: the UK Infrastructure Bank and the British Business Bank in order to boost lending to the alternative banking sector and transition activities by small businesses.

Drought, flash floods and extreme weather. Heavy downpours hit parts of the UK last week resulting in flash floods in the South East, and the closure of train platforms and theatres in London. The flooding came after experts warned that rain would “offer little relief” after the driest spell in almost 50 years. Several parts of the country have announced hosepipe bans including Thames Water, Yorkshire Water and Southern Water. Recent flash floods have also caused serious problems in other parts of Europe as well as western China where at least 16 people have died due to the recent extreme weather.

• UK adaptation to climate change. Last October, the Environment Agency warned the government to “Adapt or Die”, pointing to the impacts of more extreme weather from increased rainfall and flooding in the UK in a 2 degree warming trajectory. The report details sea level rises, changes to winter and summer rainfall and peak river flows, and the need for extra public water supplies. The Climate Change Committee’s 3rd Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk argued that “Adaptation action has failed to keep pace with the worsening reality of climate risk. The UK has the capacity and the resources to respond effectively to these risks, but it has not yet done so. Acting now will be cheaper than waiting to deal with the consequences.”

‍

Water companies. The UK’s current water crisis has been dramatically compounded by a myriad of failings by water companies. The Environment Agency has described the environmental performance of England’s nine water companies as “the worst we have seen for years”. 

• Sewage dumping. Companies have recently come under heavy criticism for the huge increase in the amount of raw sewage they have pumped into seas and rivers. According to new figures from the Environment Agency, since 2016 raw sewage has been pumped into waters around the UK for more than nine million hours. Despite the Environment Agency reporting faulty monitoring systems, data shows a 2,553 per cent increase over five years in the amount of sewage found in seas and rivers. Environmentalists unsuccessfully pushed for a legal duty on water companies to stop discharging raw sewage into rivers in the Environment Act 2021. However, after a House of Lords revolt, the bill was amended to require companies to deliver a “progressive reduction” in sewage. 
• Water wastage. Water companies in England and Wales lost more than one trillion litres of water via leaky pipes last year, according to Ofwat. This equates to 2.9 billion litres per day which, if spread across an area of the same width and depth as an olympic swimming pool, would stretch from Westminster to Reading. 
• Where are all the reservoirs? The National Farmers Union (NFU) has called on both Conservative leadership candidates to tackle “immoral” water wastage as farmers worry about the effect of the drought on their crops and call for more reservoirs to be built. According to the former head of Natural England, water companies have sold off 25 reservoirs since the 1980s and have not replaced them. 

‍

Has privatisation been a failure? As the water and sewage crises worsen, many (including Jonathan Portes who worked on the privatisation of water companies in 1989) argue that the private ownership of these companies is to blame. “It’s time to admit that water privatisation has been a failure”, argues former David Cameron advisor Camilla Cavendish, saying that “as customers, we are captives with nowhere else to go”. Similarly, musician and campaigner Feargal Sharkey recently argued that the current crisis is the result of “30 years of underinvestment, 30 years of regulatory failure, 30 years of mismanagement and all of it topped off with 30 years of a political vacuum, devoid of oversight and scrutiny”.

‍

Calls for renationalisation. The Green Party has called for the renationalisation of water companies to “end the scandal of wasted water”, as has the Guardian, which argued in an editorial that services such as water “can clearly be managed by the state in a way that makes sense”. We Own It has long campaigned for the public ownership of water, with director Cat Hobbs arguing that as the UK anticipates an increase in extreme weather, “we need to bring water into public hands so it can be run for people, not profit”. The renationalisation of water is overwhelmingly popular with the public, with 91% of Express readers saying that they would back bringing private water companies back into public control.

• Funding. One argument frequently put forward in defense of water privatisation, for example by Director of the Centre for Policy Studies, Robert Colville, is that it plugged an investment gap, after an “extraordinary backlog” under nationalisation. However, water privatisation has failed to deliver a promised “new era of infrastructure funding”, argues Paul Waugh. Since privatisation, water companies have borrowed large amounts of debt not for investment, but to pay for dividends. In contrast, all £123 billion of capital expenditure since 1991 has been financed by customer bills. Similarly, Labour for a Green New Deal’s Chris Saltmarsh argues that “if we do not remove the profit-motive from our water system, we will not see investment in infrastructure upgrades”.
• “Nationalisation by stealth”. The project of bringing water back into public ownership must start with regulation, argues Paul Mason. “The regulator has to set prices and profits so low that only a non-profit or mutual ownership structure makes sense. Then the government has to oversee the creation of successor companies to privateers… by creating democratically elected regional water authorities to oversee a sector composed largely of mutuals or public corporations, you would achieve something close to “common ownership” by stealth”, Mason explains. 
• Other ownership options. The “straightforward state ownership through nationalisation… is not the only alternative”, according to a paper by Common Wealth. Public-common partnerships (PCPs) could “be used to govern a diverse range of assets”, such as water companies, it argues. PCPs enable communities to work with local authorities in a “commons-led approach” for collective ownership. 
• “Build back wetter”. Water management should be “considered one of the key ‘public goods’ we provide through public money”, argues Ali Morse of the Wildlife Trusts. Beyond ownership, public intervention could look like an effort to “build back wetter”, Morse argues, describing how the restoration of wetlands can “play an important role in retaining more water”. 

The policy debate around rising energy bills. Politicians from different parties have proposed freezing the Energy Price Cap at its current level as a way of easing the impact of rising energy bills, which the latest forecasts predict to reach £3,582 on average per year from October and £4,266 a year by January 2024. Labour outlined their £28.9bn plans to freeze the energy price cap for six months, amongst other measures. This followed similar calls from Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey, the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon and former Prime Minister Gordon Brown. 

• Inaction will lead to a bleak winter for many. The Bank of England now estimates the UK inflation rate to peak at 13% this year. As a result, households face a once-in-a-generation fall in their real incomes. And inflation is not predicted to fall back to its 2 per cent target until 2024. The latest forecasts show the expected annual real pay will fall by an unprecedented 7.75% in the last quarter of 2022 as inflation erodes disposable incomes. This marks the biggest quarterly fall in real wages for 100 years, which comes after the longest wage squeeze (period of stagnant wages) for 200 years. Analysis carried out for CPAG shows that more than half of British households will be in fuel poverty by October and two-thirds by January; 6m households will be forced to spend an unprecedented 25% of their income on energy. The Resolution Foundation calculated that almost half of annual gas use occurs in the January - March period, where the typical household could find its energy bills rising from £82 a month this summer to over £500 a month. 
• What is the government currently planning? The Times reports that the Treasury under Nadhim Zahawi is planning a government-backed lending scheme to compensate suppliers and enable them to cut an extra £400 off energy bills, costing £9bn. Whether this is adopted or not will depend on who wins the Conservative leadership election; Liz Truss has flip flopped about whether to provide more “handouts” and emphasised her preference for tax cuts over direct payments (read our previous digest on the limitations of using tax cuts to ease the cost of living crisis) and Rishi Sunak proposed scrapping VAT on energy bills and extending the Energy Bill Rebate to provide targeted financial support for pensioners and the most vulnerable. 

‍

Reducing inflation with fiscal policy. The Bank of England estimates that half of the headline rate of inflation is due to rising energy and food prices. New analysis from IPPR calculates that freezing the Energy Price Cap at its current level could reduce the peak rate of inflation by 3.9% from 13% to 9.1% and save households £2,050 on average in energy bills over the next year, costing £45bn - less than Liz Truss’ £50bn plan for tax cuts and extra spending. If this was funded, at least partially through windfall and/or wealth taxes, inflation could be reduced by a further 0.7%. (IPPR also calculated that reducing the Energy Price Cap to its November 2021 level could reduce the peak rate of inflation by 5.6% from 13% to 7.4% and save households £2,744 on average, costing £60bn. If this was funded, at least partially through windfall and/or wealth taxes, inflation could be reduced by a further 0.9%.) 

• The Bank of England’s contractionary response isn’t working. Criticism is mounting over conventional monetary policy’s failure to tackle inflation properly. The Bank of England is trying to prevent inflation becoming embedded into expectations through ‘second round effects’ of price increases spreading to other goods and services. Earlier this month the Monetary Policy Committee was criticised for the largest interest rate rise since 1995 even though it will have little immediate impact on today’s inflation and is likely to exacerbate the now-forecast recession. The TUC argues this will further erode household incomes through the loss of one million jobs. 
• ‘Fiscal price caps’ are a more effective response to the cost of living crisis. IPPR argue that ‘fiscal price caps’, such as setting an upper limit for the energy price, subsidised through fiscal policy, could reduce inflation straight away, protect households from the increase in bills this winter, and help prevent inflation from becoming embedded by reducing the risk of further snowballing price rises in the future. About half of European economies have some form of price limiting measure in place; e.g. the French government has frozen gas prices and limited electricity increases to 4 per cent, with an estimated cost of €38 billion. 

‍

Funding the energy price cap freeze.  Labour argues their £28.9bn proposal can be funded by backdating the windfall tax imposed in May to January and closing the investment loophole that grants oil and gas producers a tax break worth up to 91p in every £1, scrapping the £400 Energy Bill Rebate and by making £7bn in savings on debt interest payments by reducing inflation. The IFS’s Paul Johnson called this latter point as an ‘illusion’ because it wouldn’t bring inflation down permanently, however IPPR argues that it could have a significant effect by reanchoring expectations and reducing ‘second round effects’. (A YouGov poll for the Times found that 75% of Conservative voters support “fixing the cap on energy bills even if it means more government borrowing”.)

• Consider other options as revenue-raisers. Windfall and wealth taxes have also been proposed as revenue-raising options to fund proposals to reduce inflation and stabilise energy prices. Tax Justice UK modeled how a 95% tax on excess profits could raise £12.9bn instead of the £5bn in the government's package. (NB The tax rate on oil and gas was 75% in 2015 and 80% in 2014, and the global average is 70%.) Excess profits taxes could also be expanded to other sectors (e.g. commodities companies) that have been reaping windfall profits, as argued here by IPPR’s Carys Roberts. (Read the first report from Unite’s Corporate Profiteering and the Cost of Living Crisis. Private Eye exposes the profits of top companies benefiting from the pandemic, with testing company Randox Laboratories Ltd making £308 million in profit since the pandemic having only made a profit of £12 million before Covid.) The package could also be accompanied by reforms to the UK’s unequal taxation of wealth. Rebalancing taxes on work and wealth has increasing support on the centre-right. 

‍

Criticism and counterarguments. The proposal has come under fire for a variety of reasons, detailed below. One free market counterargument was given by IEA fellow Julian Jessop, who argued that price caps distort price signals such as “increasing the incentives for producers to raise output and for consumers to economise”. IPPR provides a rebuttal to this, arguing that a 73% increase in energy prices since last year is enough of a strong incentive to transition to lower carbon homes, and freezing the energy price cap at its current level should always come in combination with another package of support to increase investment in clean energy and energy efficiency upgrades, such as Labour’s ‘energy efficiency revolution’.

• Why not target support at those that need it most? Labour’s plan has also been criticised by economists, such as Tax Research Network’s Richard Murphy, on the basis that it “delivers a significant gain to the best off households”. However Resolution Foundation Chief Economist Mike Brewer argues that the higher prices go, the more justification there is for a universal intervention while the FT’s Stephen Bush points out that even among the richest fifth of households, median income is £62,700, so there is a case for intervening high up the income distribution. (A YouGov poll for the Times shows voters slightly favouring support applied equally to all households (47%) than means tested (40%).)

• What about other types of support? IPPR have argued that, though gas prices could remain well above their 2021 levels until 2025, freezing the price cap in place for an extended period has “significant costs”. They argue that “Instead, it could be better to use the time provided by a one-year freeze to put in place a ‘social-tariff’, a measure designed to cap or reduce energy bills for those on the lowest incomes, and accelerate a programme of clean energy and reducing energy demand through home retrofit (though the benefits of the latter two policies will take time to come to fruition).” Retrofitting proposals, such as NEF’s Great Homes Upgrade, and income support proposals such as a Living Income could be seen as complimentary packages and not mutually exclusive. The TUC’s Kate Bell argues that the price cap freeze should come alongside other measures such as increases to social security and minimum wage “at least in line with inflation to October”, funding decent public sector pay rises, fair pay agreements and replacing Universal Credit with a decent system paid at 80% of minimum wage.
• What about businesses? The FSB has been calling for more support as the Energy Price Cap and cost of living packages of support have so far failed to protect businesses from rising costs, some of which are facing five-fold increases in their energy bills. Commenting on the FSB’s Small Business Index, the FT’s Oliver Barnes predicts that “many SMEs, which together employ around three-fifths of the UK’s workforce, will probably collapse without government intervention”. IPPR’s paper suggests that the energy price cap could be broadened to cover all or some businesses, which could further reduce the headline rate of inflation as high energy costs are likely to be feeding into non-energy price rises. (The Mirror’s Dan Bloom also reports that some schools are considering shutting at least one day a week to protect already stretched budgets from rising heating bills. NHS trusts are also struggling with rising energy costs.)

‍

Public ownership for bankrupted suppliers. So far, Ofgem’s logic in increasing the energy price cap has been to prevent energy suppliers making losses and eventually going bankrupt, which in turn would force consumers to absorb additional costs. (Martin Lewis has argued that “at every turn, in these desperate times where lives are at risk, [Ofgem] has ignored all asks for consumers and instead kowtowed to the industry”.) Bulb was bailed out by the taxpayer when it collapsed last winter, but campaigners such as We Own It want to see it nationalised on a more permanent basis.

• Prioritising protecting households over shareholders. Even energy companies have suggested freezing the level of the energy price cap, but their proposal still involves funds flowing to the shareholders of energy companies as the government might provide loans (up to £50bn to cover 22 million households) repaid over 10 to 15 years, “either by suppliers adding a small surcharge to customers’ bills, or through adding the cost to general taxation.” While Gordon Brown proposed temporary renationalisation of failed energy suppliers in his intervention, Starmer steered clear of committing to nationalisation of energy companies, arguing that all funds should go to compensating households rather than shareholders. (This article explores how much compensation a future Labour government might have to pay foreign energy investors if their 2019 manifesto proposals to nationalise energy were implemented.) However, Common Wealth argues that “unless the energy market is transformed, substantial parts of the £29bn package risks flowing to shareholders. A simpler, practical approach is public ownership: removing rent extraction and to deliver value for money.” 
• Nationalisation is affordable, popular and can reduce bills. The TUC calculates that energy retail company bailouts have so far cost £2.7bn, and taking the Big Five energy retail firms into public ownership would cost just £2.85bn, reduce bills, speed up energy efficiency improvements to homes and cut carbon emissions faster. New polling from We Own It found that 66% of voters support energy being in the public sector. Evidence from 15 Western European countries over the last 30 years has shown that energy prices are 20-30% lower in systems that have publicly owned energy suppliers. ‍
• Paradigm shift towards public ownership? PEF’s James Meadway argues that the “crucial point with the price cap freeze” is that “it has now been tacitly accepted that government *can* interfere in the price mechanism to help deal with inflation. [This is a] major breach in the neoliberal theology that inflation is something *only* the central bank and interest rates can deal with.” Tom Collinge, Progressive Britain’s Head of Policy and Comms, suggested that energy security “clearly cannot be left to the market” and that while not providing a short term solution to price rises, nationalisation “is a long term, structural, solution to long term, structural problems.” The Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges argued that “if the major private utilities are unable to provide basic services to their customers at a price that is affordable they should be brought under public control. Not handed subsidies… If the market fails, the state should step in and replace it.”

Prime Minister Liz Truss? Liz Truss has maintained and extended her lead over fellow Conservative leadership contender Rishi Sunak, despite several U-turns, most notably on regional public sector pay. According to Politico’s Poll of Polls, Liz Truss leads with the backing of 56% of Conservative members compared to Rishi Sunak’s 32% and 11% who don’t know. Neither candidate is currently performing as well among the wider electorate, however, with a YouGov poll finding that Liz Truss would not increase the Conservatives’ support.

• Who’s who. Politico has produced a handy guide to Conservative MP support for each candidate, including analysis of the political breakdown of Truss and Sunak supporters. 80% of those publicly backing Truss, for example, either supported Brexit during the referendum or have publicly stated their conversion to Brexit, while just over 40% of Sunak supporters are pro-Brexit. More than twice as many ‘red wall’ Conservative MPs back Truss (12) over Sunak (5), while Sunak has nearly double the number of ‘Traditional Tory’ supporters than Truss. 
• But, what about the members? Analysing the political divides behind Conservative member support for Truss and Sunak is a whole different story. The New Statesman’s Charlotte Ivers explains why demographic data on “the most powerful people you have never heard of'' is notoriously sparse and outlines the effect this has on polling.
• Appealing to the right. What we do know about Conservative members is that they like right wing policies and that appealing to this majority faction may be the key to Truss’ success, argues polling expert John Curtice. 54% back Liz Truss’ tax cut pledge while only 37% agree with Rishi Sunak’s argument that tax cuts could fuel inflation.
• Truss’ cabinet. As Truss remains the hopeful to be the next Prime Minister, speculation is well underway over who may be in her cabinet. Close ally and current Secretary of State for Business Kwasi Kwarteng is widely tipped to be chosen as Truss’ Chancellor. Kwarteng famously co-authored Britannia Unchained with the leadership frontrunner along with Priti Patel, Dominic Raab and Chris Skidmore. Others tipped for cabinet positions include Ian Duncan Smith, Suella Braverman, Simon Clarke and Kemi Badenoch. ‍
• Jumping ship. The Mail on Sunday reports that several members of the current Sunak camp have been in talks with Team Truss about joining her campaign as her lead widens. 

Economic policy. Throughout the leadership contest, economic policy - particularly taxation - has been at the heart of deep divides between the two candidates. Tax cuts are central to Truss’ campaign, where proposals include reversing national insurance increases, cancelling the planned corporation tax rise and temporarily removing green energy levies on electricity bills. While her opponent argues that tax cuts could fuel inflation, Truss has maintained that her plan could actually avoid recession. (Read Politico's piece on how Trussonomics differs from the 'sound money' principles of previous Conservative governments.)

• Tax. Though originally pledging to reverse the recent rise in National Insurance in April next year, Liz Truss now plans to rush through tax cuts in a September emergency budget. Writing for the Telegraph, the frontrunner confirmed her plans to cut taxes immediately, which could see cuts come into effect as soon as November. Truss appears to have surrounded herself with fellow low-tax Conservatives. Kwasi Kwarteng, tipped to become her Chancellor if elected, is a low-tax, free-marketeer who repeatedly clashed with Rishi Sunak in government over windfall taxes and net zero.
• Tax cut pushback. The reversal of tax rises would boost inflation and fail to boost growth, argues Conservative Home’s William Atkinson. What’s more, the public do not want tax cuts if it means spending cuts, according to a poll by Opinium. About a third (34%) of those surveyed said taxes and spending on public services should remain at current levels, while 26% think there should be an increase in tax to increase funding. Just over a fifth said that taxes should be reduced and less spent on public services. For more on the debate around tax cuts and inflation, see our Digest. 
• Growth. Truss has described the UK’s lack of economic growth as “the number one problem in this country” and has used this to justify her proposals for tax cuts. She links this to her commitment to government reform, stating that “happiness is a faster-growing private sector than public sector” in an interview with Conservative Home. 
• Handouts. Faced with a growing cost of living crisis, Truss has made the case against ‘handouts’, arguing that lowering the tax burden is the “Conservative way” to ease cost pressures. As the energy price cap is due to rise, many have interpreted this as Truss rejecting support packages in the Autumn. However, her team insists that she has not in fact ruled out cost of living support, with opponents accusing her of making yet another U-turn. 
• Bank of England. As the Bank of England warns that the UK will fall into recession this year, Truss’ camp has adopted a hostile tone towards the central bank. Supporter Kwasi Kwarteng argued that “clearly something has gone wrong” in the Bank’s handling of inflation and suggested that base rates could have been raised “slightly sooner”. In the Spectator, Matthew Lynn goes as far as to suggest that the Bank of England’s recent move to raise interest rates by half a percentage point was influenced by Liz Truss’ repeated argument that the bank has been too relaxed about inflation. Truss has said that she would review the Bank’s mandate if elected. The FT's George Parker also reports that Truss intends to give ministers powers to override financial regulators seen to be limiting post-Brexit reforms in the new Financial Services Bill.
• Treasury shake-up. Truss is planning a ‘Thatcherite shake-up’ of the Treasury, according to the Telegraph, which would give Number 10 more control over the economy. Truss clearly has a longstanding commitment to the shaking up of Whitehall, arguing in 2018 that to “unleash the UK’s potential, we need to fight the blob”. 
• Public sector pay. There are clearly limits to Liz Truss’ resolve to reform the Civil Service however, evidenced by her U-turn on public sector pay last week. Having originally suggested that she would introduce regional pay boards to effectively cut civil servant pay in poorer areas, Truss was forced to withdraw the proposal after heavy criticism of both the implications of the policy and the accuracy of the costings. The FT’s George Parker labelled the move a “case study of the danger in photocopying a Taxpayers' Alliance press release - adding a few billion - and presenting it as a programme for government”.  
• Climate. Reflecting on both candidates’ climate policies, Conservative Environment Network’s Sam Hall has said Truss will need to strengthen green policies if she is to meet the net zero target that she has confirmed she supports. Green Alliance’s Shaun Spiers warns that while both candidates may “pay lip service” to climate policies, they are likely to “dodge the difficult decisions”. 
• Good for women? Representation is not enough for Liz Truss to be beneficial to women, argues the Women’s Budget Group’s Mary-Ann Stephenson. Refinery 29’s Vicky Spratt argues that Truss’ “Destiny's Child” approach to feminism fails to recognise that women are disproportionately affected by the cost of living crisis.
• Farewell ‘levelling up’? Whitehall officials warn that the outgoing Prime Minister’s ‘levelling up’ agenda is being “quietly ditched” and will not survive a new leader. Though not a policy priority, however, Liz Truss is “advocating low-tax zones to encourage investment in deprived areas”, notes Politico’s Esther Webber. 

‍

Politics. If successful, Liz Truss would be the first Conservative leader since Churchill to have been a member of another political party. Hailing from a family that she describes as “left of the Labour Party”, Truss went on to become president of the Oxford University Liberal Democrats which she has labelled a “youthful error”. Upon entering Parliament in 2010 and first joined the government in 2012 as a Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Education. 

• An outsider? Despite having now been a Conservative party member for 25 years, Truss still “sees the Conservatives with an outsider’s eye”, argues Conservative Home’s Paul Goodman. In contrast to Sunak’s comfort with “conventional wisdom”, Truss is more of a libertarian, he argues, but at the same time is “remarkably flexible” in her views.
• Vibes? The reason why Liz Truss is positioned so clearly as the right wing candidate has little to do with her policies and more to do with ‘vibes’, argues the FT’s Janan Ganesh. Despite vocally supporting remain during the referendum, Truss consistently polls better with Brexit supporting Conservative members than Sunak. This contradiction, Ganesh argues, checks out in a world where “people’s ideological commitments are extraordinarily soft” and instead are motivated by “tribal signifiers”. 
• Trusting Truss. After several U-turns (or, as Team Truss would describe, instances in which her policies have been ‘misinterpreted’) even her backers are beginning to ask whether she can be trusted. Truss’ many U-turns are rooted in the clash between her classical liberalism philosophy and the ‘Red Wall of reality’, argues the Institute of Economic Affairs’ Emily Carver. 
• Approach to experts. Former cabinet minister David Gauke argues that the thread running through Liz Truss’ politics is her skepticism of experts. The Spectator’s Fraser Nelson that the two candidates’ approach to experts and economic forecasts in particular is one of their “biggest differences”. As the Bank of England warns of recession, Truss is right to say that “forecasts are not destiny”, argues Nelson. 
• The new Thatcher? Comparisons between Truss (and indeed any aspirational Conservative politician who is a woman) and Thatcher are predictable, argues Martha Gill. However, it is actually the current Prime Minister, rather than Margaret Thatcher, that Truss is channeling, argues the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe.  
• Rick Perlstein. Liz Truss is allegedly inspired by historian and “man of the left” Rick Perlstein. Nick Cohen outlines some of the lessons Liz Truss may be learning from her favourite historian’s analysis, such as how to ‘Mobilise resentment’ and ‘Never accept defeat’. 

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak? Rishi Sunak himself acknowledges that he is an ‘underdog’ in the campaign, referring to his unfavourable odds of winning against Liz Truss (although one poll does suggest the result may be closer than generally assumed). However, after leading the pack during the initial phase of the contest and attracting the support of more Conservative MPs than any other candidate, Sunak should not be written off. Whatever the result, his positions and economic philosophy is likely to remain important within the party during the next Cabinet and beyond. 

‍

Political history. Rishi Sunak had a rapid rise to the top of British politics. He was elected to Richmond in 2015 and became a Junior minister in DHCLG under Theresa May’s government in 2018. He was then promoted to Chief Secretary to the Treasury by Boris Johnson - a move that was widely regarded as a reward for publicly backing the Leave campaign during the 2015 Brexit referendum and for publicly supporting Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign to replace Theresa May in the Times alongside two other MPs; “This was widely seen in Westminster as a decisive turning point: the one where Johnson won over ‘the sensibles’ and pivoted the backbenchers.” Sunak was promoted to Chancellor when Sajid Javid resigned in February 2020. His economic record is summarised below: 

• Pragmatically fiscally expansive (when pressured)... The Chancellor delivered his first Budget that oversaw unprecedented levels of fiscal support and deficit spending during his first month in office and throughout the Covid-19 pandemic (as well as providing £37bn in support for the energy price crisis so far). However, he consistently refused to provide adequate funding for a variety of Boris Johnson’s policy agendas and much of the emergency packages of support given throughout the cost of living crisis have arguably been a result of sustained political pressure from campaigns that forced a U-turn whilst the government was weak; e.g. the Windfall tax on oil and gas producers or ‘Energy Profits Levy’. 
• …but the dead hand of the Treasury often prevailed. Economist Michael Jacobs explains that he “sabotaged Boris Johnson’s policies” through his choice of fiscal rules that arbitrarily limit public investment to 3% of GDP, meaning he underfunded almost every policy agenda ranging from the Integrated Rail Plan, the Leveling Up White Paper, the Net Zero Strategy, the plan to fund Health and Social Care, and more recently, the Energy Security Strategy (click through to read our analysis and summaries of each at the time.)
• Inflation hawk and ‘tax cutting Chancellor’? Sunak has since reinforced this position of ‘sound money’ and ‘fiscal responsibility’ against competitor Liz Truss’s expansionary campaign of tax cuts, which he refers to as “peddling the fantasy economics of unfunded promises” and warns about their inflationary effects. He often referred to himself as wanting to be a ‘tax cutting’ Chancellor despite Conservative critics pointing out that he presided over a steady expansion of the tax take to x% of GDP. This prompted the IFS’s Paul Johnson to call Sunak a “fiscal illusionist” in their analysis of the 2022 Spring Statement. If elected Prime Minister, Sunak has pledged to slowly reduce income tax in 2024 from 20 per cent to 19 per cent (1p cut), followed by further cuts to eventually reach 16 per cent by 2029 (a further 3p cut) as he believes we “need to get a grip of inflation first”. Sunak oversaw “one of the largest single-year tax giveaways ever enacted by a government” - the Super Deduction tax break for capital investment (see our analysis)  - which had limited effects on productivity and growth and has since hinted about wanting to “cut the taxes on business that actually make a difference to growth and productivity” more if he becomes PM. He also clarified he will retain his plan to increase corporation tax from 19% to 25% in April 2023.
• Ambiguous approach towards public ownership. The Treasury under Sunak also began developing new approaches towards public ownership, ranging from taking equity stakes in struggling businesses (such as Bulb energy) and becoming one of the largest venture capital funds in Europe. See our previous digest for analysis of State intervention after Johnsonomics for more.

‍

Which policy agendas will survive if Rishi becomes PM? Sunak has stated that “a screeching U-turn on lots of policies that were in the 2019 manifesto” would “be tricky to implement”, so which of Boris Johnson’s flagship policy agendas might survive under Sunak’s rule? Public First has updated their Conservative Leadership Election Policy Tracker, key parts of which have been summarised and elaborated on below: (accurate at the time of publication)

• Leveling up. Sunak pledged his support for Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen’s five-point plan for levelling up, which includes: a commitment to keep the Department for Levelling up with a Cabinet level Secretary of State, reform the Treasury Green Book evaluation process so public spending prioritises towns, rural areas and the North of England more, give mayors greater powers to control tax through devolution and fully construct Northern Powerhouse Rail. He has also committed to Northern Research Group’s pledge card to create a Minister for the North, two new vocational institutions in the North of England (“the national vocational equivalents of Oxford and Cambridge”), and commit to greater devolution and rebalancing of government spending formulas. Sunak was a supporter of creating freeports - low tax zones - as part of the Levelling Up agenda and invested £4.8bn through the Levelling Up Fund to redevelop in ‘left behind’ communities in the UK (see our analysis and critique here). 
• Net zero (and energy security). Sunak has committed to retaining the Net Zero 2050 target and the Conservative Environment Network’s pledge card, which includes a “baseline commitment to maintain recent progress” in areas such as designing post-Brexit nature-friendly farming subsidies and switching to renewable energy, rolling out home insulation (perhaps based on Northern Ireland’s energy efficiency strategy) and electric vehicle charge points, implementing the Environment Act and “turbocharging clean growth through backing the technologies of the future”. On energy, Sunak has pledged to keep the ban on building any new onshore windfarms but start a massive expansion in offshore wind, introduce a legal target to make Britain energy self sufficient by 2045 and re-establish a separate Department of Energy and create a new Energy Security Committee tasked with reforming the market to cut future bills. CEN’s Sam Hall also notes that Sunak is “open to lifting the fracking moratorium if there is local support”.
• Cost of living. Whilst Sunak has spent over £37bn in measures to ease the cost of living crisis as Chancellor so far, it may be too early to tell whether this will continue if he wins the Leadership race. During his campaign he has only pledged to scrap VAT on energy bills for a year from October as a temporary measure and announced longer term plans to tackle supply-side inflationary pressures that increase prices of UK imports, such as increasing trade with Dutch and Danish ports. 
• Welfare and public services. Sunak’s only pledge on welfare so far has been to double the number of hours someone on welfare has to work a week in order to avoid having to look for a full time job from 9 to 18. He has various proposals for reducing NHS waiting lists in “an emergency package to force down NHS waiting lists through tougher targets led by a ‘backlogs taskforce’.” He has been silent on both child care and social care so far.

‍

The Cabinet under Sunak? Speculation about who might be picked to be in Sunak’s Cabinet is still contested. The Guardian’s Jessica Elgot and Aubrey Allegretty think that Sunak might pick Steve Barclay as Chancellor but the Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner suggests that Michael Gove might be picked instead. 

• Campaign team. Sunak’s campaign is being run by former Chief of Staff in the Treasury, Liam Booth-Smith, a former chief executive of think tank Localis; LGC’s briefing states that “under his tenure Localis played an important role in the development of the government’s industrial strategy” implemented by Theresa May (Liam has also written multiple articles on the need for places to develop their own local strategies with Bright Blue’s Ryan Shorthouse). His communications are being ran by Narissa Chesterfield (formerly comms manager at the IEA and worked for Vote Leave) and Cass Horowitz (former special advisor to Sunak and former journalist who has worked with Allegra Stratton on Peston). ‍
• Policy team. Public First’s Director of Strategy Nick Park is helping Sunak’s campaign with policy research, who has a long track record of energy policy and political advisory roles, alongside Eleanor Shawcross, a “highly respected former senior aide to [George] Osborne when he was chancellor”, “a key adviser in the months leading up to the June 2016 European Union Referendum” and who “could be closely involved in drawing up the Conservatives’ manifesto for the next general election”.

Mansion House speech. Last week, Nadhim Zahawi stressed the “critical role of financial services” in his first Mansion House speech as Chancellor. Along with controlling inflation and creating “the conditions for a private sector recovery”, Zahawi identified financial services as one of his three priorities. Speaking the day before the publication of the Financial Services and Markets Bill, the new Chancellor set out how the Government will replace “hundreds of pieces of retained EU law” with a new vision for financial services. 

• A green speech? Zahawi’s address to the financial and professional services sector took a surprisingly green turn, according to Green Alliance’s Zoë Toone and James Fotherby, but stopped short of fully linking his three key priorities with net zero ambitions. While demand management and green infrastructure can tackle inflation and private sector recovery, they argue, alignment between the financial sector and net zero targets could create opportunities that would “revitalise the London Stock Exchange”. 

‍

Financial Services and Markets Bill. Following the Mansion House speech, the Government published its Financial Services and Markets Bill in response to its findings from the Future Regulatory Framework (FRF) review which concluded in February this year. Before publication, the Bill was tipped to be a “regulation bonfire” with outgoing Chancellor and Conservative leadership hopeful Rishi Sunak hoping that post-Brexit changes to regulation would result in a “Big Bang 2.0”. The bill is due to have its second reading in Parliament on 7th September this year.

• The competitiveness agenda. At the heart of the proposed reforms is a focus on making ‘competitiveness’ a formal objective for regulators. There was previously such a competitiveness duty placed on regulators, but this was removed as part of the 2012 Financial Services Act. Writing for OpenDemocracy, Chaminda Jayanetti highlights that a Treasury consultation document published at the time partly blamed the competitiveness agenda for the financial crash, stating that there is “a strong argument that one of the reasons for regulatory failure leading up to the crisis was excessive concern for competitiveness”. 
• Mistakes of the past. The competitiveness agenda “risks sleepwalking into the mistakes of the past”, argues the FT’s Helen Thomas. “A regulatory race to the bottom harms everyone except those who have something to keep from public scrutiny”, argues Professor Sir John Kay. In May, over 50 leading economists wrote to the Chancellor warning of the risks of a new regulatory goal of competitiveness. For more on the competitiveness agenda, see our Digest. 
• “Cheerleaders for the City”. “Regulators don’t want to be undermined by being tasked with becoming cheerleaders for the City”, argues Positive Money’s Fran Boait. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has warned of the proposed “call-in power” in the new bill that would allow the Treasury to override decisions made by regulators. 
• What’s driving the “deregulation agenda”? The Government’s commitment to deregulation can be attributed to the “enormous power” of the financial sector, argues Boait. Over the past two years, financial institutions and individuals closely involved in the sector donated more than £15m to political parties and around a third of Treasury minister meetings are with financial institutions and their lobbyists.
• Treasury committee pushback. The Treasury select committee has warned the Government of the risks of too much deregulation and of making competitiveness an objective for regulators. The committee argued that “pursuing international competitiveness in the short term is unlikely to lead to economic growth or international competitiveness in the long term if it is achieved by weakening the UK’s strong regulatory standards”. 
• The alternative? Positive Money’s Fran Boait suggests that we must confront the “financialisation of all our public assets” and that the Treasury and Bank of England must instead work together to drive credit away from “property and speculative assets” towards a green transition. Central to this proposal is an “ecosystem of cooperatively or publicly owned banks” which would invest in the interests of communities rather than shareholders. 

‍

Finance for our Future. A group of civil society organisations under the name of ‘Finance for our Future’ is calling on the Government to use the Financial Services and Markets Bill as an opportunity to “address the biggest challenges we face as a country today” including climate change, economic stability and accountability and transparency in financial sector lobbying. It has already made several media interventions and provided a briefing for MPs. The coalition, which includes the Finance Innovation Lab, Positive Money and the New Economics Foundation, has proposed six key recommendations, outlined below. 

• 1.5 degrees. Finance for our Future urges the Government to oblige regulators to commit to “align the financial system and its regulation with the 1.5 degrees temperature goals of the Paris Agreement”. Finance Innovation Lab’s Jesse Griffiths raised concerns that the climate crisis is overlooked in the Government’s bill. 
• Financial inclusion. Financial products and services, such as insurance, are often inaccessible to a large number of people. The coalition suggests mandating regulators to ensure that the financial system is inclusive. 
• No statutory objective for competitiveness. Strongly opposing proposals for competitiveness objectives, the coalition argues that while there are plenty of organisations already promoting financial services, regulators should be there to act in the public interest and maintain independence. 
• Parliamentary scrutiny. The joint statement warns that the current proposals risk giving too much unchecked power to the executive (the Treasury) via “opaque secondary legislation”. It therefore proposes establishing a new parliamentary committee, representing “all facets of public interest in the financial sector”. 
• Checks on lobbyists. Current proposals “could facilitate untransparent lobbying that steers policy away from the public interest”, argues the group of organisations. It suggests that there should be a register of lobbyists and monthly reports by lobbyists on their communications with government, including written communications.
• Stakeholder engagement. Finally, the coalition calls for a requirement of the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority’s statutory panels to consist of a maximum of 50% industry representatives and at least 50% public interest representatives. Currently, only one of the FCA’s panels is for consumers, while the PRA has no public interest panel at all. 

Johnsonomics, state intervention and political expediency. New forms of state intervention in the economy have been quietly normalised throughout Boris Johnson’s premiership, partly in order to maintain the Conservatives 2019 electoral coalition and partly as a reaction to political events such as the Covid pandemic. As the Conservative Leadership Race continues, ConservativeHome’s Mark Wallace explains “what the Conservative Party wants from its next leader…fulfilling the 2019 promise to those first-time blue voters, to help people survive painful economic conditions”.  

• The 2019 electoral coalition required an activist state... Concerns with regional inequality, lower productivity and wages in more deprived parts of the country culminated in the levelling up agenda, which was in many ways a repudiation of the economic model introduced under the last period of sustained Conservaitve government under Thatcher and Major. This agenda required a more activist state than previous Conservative governments would have been prepared to accept; for example the more interventionist approach to regional economic development adopted by Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen. Christine Berry and Laurie Macfarlane explains how Johnsonomics evolved into ‘state rentier capitalism’, where the Conservatives are “catering to their new voters in the so-called ‘Red Wall’ with promises of a more activist state, whilst also seeking to reassure and protect their core constituency – rentier capital.” Christine explained this “mode of governing that may well outlast his premiership” in a recent interview with Politics Theory Other. (Political economists Will Davies and Nicholas Gane explain how the political right’s reactions to the Covid-19 pandemic could signal a break with neoliberal orthodoxy ”and, in particular, from their overriding concern for the market”.)
• …but this is also part of an emerging global consensus. Other countries have also been moving away from a free market approach to managing the economy. Such new forms of intervention reflect an emerging global consensus about industrial strategy, such as through the US approach to reshoring supply chains to ‘Revitalize American Manufacturing’, or the EU’s relaxation of state-aid rules. In 2018 UNCTAD found that 84 countries (accounting for 90% of global GDP) had adopted formal industrial policies in the previous five years. 

‍

Public ownership under Johnsonomics. Various forms of public ownership that have been employed under Boris Johnson’s premiership range from nationalisation of ‘defence-critical assets’, public equity stakes as a last resort for struggling businesses and mission-oriented innovation strategies.

• The National Security and Investment Act. Earlier this year the government passed the National Security and Investment Act; a law allowing UK regulators to block foreign takeovers of UK companies and strengthen the government's powers to investigate and intervene in 17 “sensitive sectors'' of the economy on public interest grounds. The Act outlines the government’s approach to bringing ‘defence-critical assets’ into public ownership, such as the Ministry of Defence’s acquisition of Sheffield Forgemasters to protect high skilled jobs and invest in green infrastructure.
• British Business Bank’s “Future Fund”. In 2021, Bloomberg calculated the Government had taken public equity stakes (£30.4 million) in 37 start-up companies through the British Business Bank’s Future Fund program, after the startups couldn’t repay their loans. The Future Fund became the largest venture capital fund in Europe last year, making £1.2bn of convertible loans to businesses. The FT reported that the fund was originally launched in April 2020 in “an attempt to stop a slew of start-up and early-stage businesses going under as other sources of funding dried up” and that now “the government seems to have a taste for the VC life”. (UCL IIPP’s policy brief on public wealth funds explains how taking public equity stakes in threatened, strategically important firms can support economic recovery.)
• Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA). Originally the brainchild of former Johnson aide Dominic Cummings, ARIA is an agile organisation with £800m in initial R&D funding to develop ‘transformational science’ projects. It is inspired by the successful US-based Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), which was instrumental in creating transformational technologies such as the internet and GPS. Activate’s Ilan Gur was announced as the new CEO this week. ARIA’s Statement of Policy Intent states the organisation can “take equity stakes in companies, for instance, start-up ventures for developing and exploiting scientific research.”

‍

Ambiguity towards the role of the state. Despite developing these significant policies and bills, the government adopted an ambiguous approach to public ownership, for instance Boris Johnson’s celebration of ‘greed’ and ‘capitalism’ in the development of the Covid-19 vaccine (despite the Industrial Strategy Council concluding “government played a key role in expediting every stage of the OX/AZ vaccine development process” in their paper outlining six lessons for future industrial policy in the UK), or perhaps best exemplified by the Cabinet  split on the issue of protecting a UK semiconductor manufacturer (Newport Wafer Fab) from a Chinese takeover.

• Businesses want certainty. “In a report which will make essential reading for the new Chancellor”, the cross-party Treasury Committee of MPs warned about the government’s “chop and change” approach and “lack of long-term thinking in economic strategy, following the abolition of the Industrial Strategy [originally implemented by Theresa May’s government] and its replacement with the Plan for Growth.” The CBI also published an open letter to Conservative leadership candidates last week, urging them to develop "serious, credible and bold plans for growth...that dominates policymaking across every government department, not only the treasury." The CBI’s former Director General Carolyn Fairbairn spoke about the importance of a social partnership approach between unions, the business community and government at the Resolution Foundation’s conference last week.

‍

Will the next cabinet adopt a more consistent approach? Commenting on the Conservative Leadership race and the state of the UK economy, Andrew Marr describes the outgoing PM as an “undeclared big stater”. Following Johnson’s departure Marr argues that  “we need a full economic programme for recovery, going far further than a tax-cut auction – itself based on an outdated notion of Thatcherism." But will the next leader rediscover the value of industrial strategy in addressing some of the country's most pressing economic issues, such as the rising cost of living? 

• Temporary public ownership as a last resort isn’t working. Martin Lewis and E3G have separately warned that the next Conservative leader needs to act over the ‘financial time bomb’ of rising energy costs and develop a “long-term plan to wrestle bills under control from day one”, respectively. As energy suppliers are going bust, many have been taken under public ownership by being placed into ‘special administration’ through Ofgem’s Supplier of Last Resort regime. One of them, Bulb, was propped up with the biggest taxpayer bailout since RBS in 2008. The CEO and founder has been under criticism from MPs for “continuing to receive a taxpayer-funded salary of £250,000”. Common Wealth argues Bulb “should have been taken into full and democratic public ownership…our energy system needs to be remade in the public interest, tackling insecure supply, runaway CEO pay & unaffordable bills.” Common Wealth also found that a ‘fragmented system of private monopolies that delivers outsized returns for investors’ in electricity and gas distribution networks are partly to blame for rising energy bills, and argues that ‘in the long run these monopolies should be in public ownership. 
• Longer-term strategy: active forms of management and ownership. IIPP’s Laurie Macfarlane argues that deeper reform of the energy sector is required to protect consumers and accelerate decarbonisation. He proposes use of the British Business Bank’s Future Fund to purchase equity in the ‘Big 6’ energy firms. We Own It has launched a campaign calling for energy companies to be brought into public ownership to combat rising bills. Their demands of the government include a ‘permanent windfall tax’ and the introduction of a new state-owned renewable energy company. (Their latest polling shows that ‘Red Wall’ voters “overwhelmingly back nationalised energy”, as well as other utilities.) 

Conservative leadership race dominated by tax cuts. Candidates in the Conservative Party’s leadership contest are beginning to outline their economic platforms and there is only one topic on the agenda: tax cuts. The FT’s Sebastian Payne and Chris Giles note: “A dividing line is already emerging between Tory leadership hopefuls focused on maintaining the Johnson government’s approach of investing in public services and those who wish to pursue supply-side reform.” In the former camp is Rishi Sunak, the bookies’ favourite, who is broadly defensive of his economic record and has gone on the attack about ‘fairytale economics’. However the vast majority of the other candidates have argued for a change of economic direction, attempting to woo Conservative MPs and party members with promises that slashing taxes will revive the UK’s economic fortunes, an argument which is fast becoming orthodoxy within the governing party. (A reminder that Conservative MPs are significantly more right wing in their economic values than conservative voters, and the wider public.)

• Right wing manifesto for tax cuts. Conservative Way Forward, a new pressure group chaired by Steve Baker, put this case most succinctly in a manifesto calling for “a dash for growth” via tax cuts, “supply side reforms and a return to sound money”. A Charter for Tax Cuts provides costing for a range of tax cutting options totalling over £40bn: 1p off the basic rate of income tax (£5.3bn), £1,000 increase in personal allowances (£6.1bn), suspending the 1.25% Health and Social Care Levy (£17.1bn), 1pp off standard rate of VAT (£7.5bn) and 10p off fuel duties on petrol and diesel (£5.4bn).
• Positioning. The policy paper’s author Julian Jessop (associate of the Thatcherite think tank, the Institute of Economic Affairs) argues this package “does not have to be inflationary and could actually help to reduce the upward pressures on costs and prices” and that “concerns about the debt interest bill and the overall level of debt are exaggerated”. 
• Who is backing it? Playbook notes that leadership candidates Nadhim Zahawi and Suella Braverman have already endorsed Conservative Way Forward’s proposals (and gave speeches at the manifesto’s launch yesterday). Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt have also already pledged £49.4bn and £39bn in tax cuts, respectively and Liz Truss has pledged to cut taxes ‘from day one’. Agency Public First have put together a tracker of policy pledges by the different candidates.

‍

How will this be funded? The IFS’s Paul Johnson has warned tax cuts might require “dramatic” cuts to the welfare state and other areas of public spending and that it is “nonsense” to expect them to pay for themselves, e.g. through more tax receipts through economic growth. Nadhim Zahawi has already said he plans to cut funding for staff by 20% in every government department in order to pay for his proposed tax cuts. (Polling commissioned by Tax Justice UK shows that Conservative voters are “far from supportive of tax cuts, particularly if that means cuts to public services”.)

• Unfunded tax cuts via growth? The OBR’s Andy King argued that reducing the tax burden on either businesses or households to stimulate growth wouldn’t outweigh the costs to the Treasury: “While a tax cut will typically boost growth in some way, they, in our analysis, don’t do so sufficiently to pay for themselves. Tax cuts do not improve the long-term finances”. 
• Avoiding recession. The OBR’s Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report last week provided more impetus for stimulating the economy, calculating that a recession would cost the Treasury between £30-40bn and if energy prices remained high for the next five years, another £10-20bn would be added to the government’s debt repayments. The FT’s Chris Giles also explained why “cutting taxes will not magically improve the UK’s economic performance”; “it is productivity improvements that are necessary for sustainable economic growth”.

‍

Inflationary risks and the cost of living. Some economists, two former Conservative chancellors and the former head of the Treasury have warned that a “Dutch auction of tax cuts” may be inflationary due to increasing demand. The OBR’s annual assessment of risks to the public finances last week also warned that cancelling Rishi Sunak’s planned rise in corporation tax to 25% (as Nadhim Zahawi promised today) could stoke inflation higher: “If [tax cuts] are financed by greater borrowing, it puts more pressure on and arguably comes with additional risks in an economy that is running with high inflation”. (Polling by Tax Justice UK also found that 74% of 2019 Conservative voters support an increase in corporation tax.)

• Inflation driven by supply shocks. However, there are good reasons to think that excess aggregate demand isn't driving inflation, given the UK is at risk of recession. The Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey admitted recently at a select committee that around 80% of the inflation overshoot was driven by external shocks with only 20% caused by the reaction of firms and wages. (For a good breakdown of these external drivers read economist Michael Spence’s piece for Project Syndicate, The Supply-Side Fight Against Inflation.)
• “Fiscal policy also has an important role to play in managing inflation fairly”. IPPR’s Carys Roberts proposed the government should levy excess profit taxes to other sectors of the economy which have made windfall profits (beyond oil and gas) and use the receipts to support households and build more resilient supply chains to tackle external causes of inflation (e.g. for critical commodities). This could reduce inflationary pressure by discouraging profiteering, as recent research by IPPR and Commonwealth observed. Tax Justice UK’s Paul Hebden argued that if the planned corporation tax rise is reversed after increasing taxes on working people, then “the government will be showing its true priorities…Tax is about political choices yet ordinary people continue to bear the costs of the pandemic while the wealthy and big business are protected.” Polling commissioned by Common Wealth found ¾ of voters in ‘Red Wall’ seats would support a windfall tax on all large companies which have made excess profits to help families with the cost of living.

‍

Tax cuts are poorly targeted. Economist Jonathan Portes explains why “broad-based, badly targeted tax cuts…will do little to help those who need it most”. Resolution Foundation’s Torsten Bell points out “only a fifth of the benefit of an income tax cut would go to the entire poorest half of the population.” (Also read our analysis of why business tax breaks such as the ‘Super deduction’ are a poor response to the cost of living crisis.)

• Tax cuts on the rich don’t create jobs or growth. Trickle down economics has been thoroughly debunked, perhaps most comprehensively by analysis published by the LSE which found that tax cuts for the rich have not had a significant impact on unemployment or growth, but they have increased income inequality. BBC Newsnight’s Ben Chu explained that “there is no compelling evidence that overall tax burdens determine economic outcomes” and that “there really isn’t a large constituency for the argument that sweeping tax cuts, as a share of the total economy, will do very much to boost the UK’s overall growth prospects” in this video explainer. (Watch economist Jeevun Sandher explain why tax cuts won’t solve the UK economy’s long term growth problems in an interview with Julia Hartley-Brewer.)

‍

Long-term solutions to UK stagflation. Leader of the Opposition Keir Starmer has dismissed the Conservative leadership election as an “arms race of fantasy economics.” The FT’s Martin Wolf also doubts that the Conservative leadership candidates will provide any solutions to the UK’s stagnant economy: “The answer will not be tax cuts: taxes are already lower than in our European peers. Nor will it be deregulation: the UK economy is relatively deregulated, except in the use of land. It will depend on higher investment and bringing lagging firms and regions to the frontier. It will depend on improvements in corporate governance and capital markets, which encourage investment and innovation. It will depend on exploiting the energy revolution, to accelerate growth and lower emissions.“

• Bearing down on energy prices. The FT’s Stephen Bush notes that the election of the new PM is likely to coincide with Ofgem’s announcement of the Winter Energy Price Cap rise, which analysts predict could push average annual household energy bills to £3,244.54. As former Conservative Business Secretary Chris Skidmore explains, “At a time of high inflation and a global cost of living crisis, a clear policy priority for any future prime minister must be to deliver better living standards and lower costs. Global energy prices have skyrocketed recently, entwining the debate between living costs and energy provision.”
• Across the aisle. Keir Starmer has reiterated Labour’s pledge of £30bn of green investment a year, which includes plans to decarbonise energy supply and use £6bn per year to insulate 2 million homes this year and the other 19 million that need it this decade. They calculated that this could cut energy bills by up to £400, gas imports by 15% and reduce fuel poverty. Rachel Reeves recently quoted US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s approach of “modern supply side economics”, which gives a stronger role for the government in stewarding economic growth and tackling structural challenges.

Watchdog warns UK climate plans “will not deliver net-zero”. The Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK government’s statutory advisory body set up by the Climate Change Act 2008, released its 2022 Progress Report to Parliament last week. The report comes with a new monitoring framework which outlines the indicators used to track the UK’s progress in transitioning to a zero-carbon economy by 2050.

• “The government is failing in much of its implementation”. Whilst the UK’s domestic 2030 climate targets are compatible with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the CCC has warned that 61% of these commitments are not backed by credible plans to reduce emissions. The CCC praised “warm words” in the Net Zero Strategy but noted “little concrete progress made” as only 8 of 50 key indicators are on track. Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans provided a summary of the progress made so far in a Twitter thread and pulled out this key graph illustrating the gap between the government’s current “credible” policies and the delivery pathway for net-zero.
• Risk of relying on technological salvation. NEF’s Chaitanya Kumar blamed the government's “over-reliance on technological solutions with high risk & no plan Bs” in sectors such as aviation, carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy generation. Read this article from a group of respected climate scientists who warned that net zero policy “helps perpetuate a belief in technological salvation and diminishes the urgency surrounding the need to curb emissions now”.

‍

Decarbonisation of heat and buildings remain a huge gap. The CCC identified the decarbonisation of heat and buildings as one of the most important policy gaps, as buildings are the UK’s second largest source of emissions (20% in 2021), where energy efficiency in non-fuel poor homes was “the most significant policy gap in the buildings sector”. The report states that “current policy is insufficient” to upgrade as many homes as possible to EPC rating C by 2035 and the “Government’s responses to rapidly rising energy bills have so far missed the opportunity” to address this. 

• Energy efficiency and the cost of living crisis. Many figures from the CCC highlighted that the cost of living crisis increases the importance of improving energy efficiency. CCC outgoing chair Lord Deben explained that bringing forward energy efficiency plans due to be completed by 2030 could reduce household bills by £125 a year and argued that high fossil fuel prices “should have given added impetus to improving energy efficiency, yet the necessary programmes are not in place.” The report criticised the Energy Security Strategy for “failing to offer any solutions” for reducing energy demand, and advocated for “increasing funding and accelerating plans for energy efficiency policies” (Pg.157) 
• The risk of relying on market-based approaches. The government’s current approach to increasing the supply of low-cabon heating systems relies on a market-based mechanism for rolling out heat pumps and driving delivery in heat networks. The CCC noted “This is an untested approach, and if market participants don't respond to incentives as expected low-carbon heat roll-out will not take off, with significant impact on planned emissions reductions.” As the cost of living crisis continues to erode household incomes, demand for low carbon heat systems may suffer, therefore the CCC recommended intervening with additional measures, such as public funding and more regulation to mitigate risks of low take-up (Pg. 204).
• Rationing as a last resort to avoid blackouts. Campaigners have hoped that the government would bring forward energy efficiency measures to insulate enough homes to reduce demand in time for a particularly acute energy crisis this winter. Instead, the Times’ Emily Gosden reports that the National Grid is “working urgently to establish a scheme to pay consumers with smart meters to ration their usage voluntarily…to reduce the risk of blackouts”.

‍

Action prevented by Chancellor’s fiscal rules. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng suggested in a Select Committee meeting that any new funding for energy efficiency has to be taken from other existing pots of money as no new money has been committed since the Chancellor’s Spending Review (11:52:20). 

• “Robbing Peter to pay Paul”. When asked about rumours that any funding for a future home insulation scheme would be taken from Boiler Replacement Voucher Scheme and the Public Sector Decarbonisation Scheme (PSDS), Kwarteng said: “I think some of the money has to be reallocated...I've made those decisions...If we’re going to have a high speed ambitious energy efficiency rollout, we can't simply print more money...I can't simply go beyond my CSR envelope... There has to be some degree of reallocation of existing money.” Given the CCC identifies a shortfall in funding for public building decarbonisation as another gap in the government plans, Chris Stark says this is “just the wrong approach”, despite “the value for money case of energy efficiency has never been stronger”.‍
• Overcoming ‘Treasury Brain’.  Economist Sir Nicholas Stern argued that net zero cannot be achieved with an austerity mindset and has written a paper criticising the use of high ‘discount rates’ in the Treasury's policy making processes, which “grossly undervalue” the lives of future generations and present children. Commenting on the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change, James Meadway explains why “shocks that produce permanent losses in growth increase the value of taking action today”. The Social Market Foundation has published a report on the intergenerational issues that arise from paying for the net zero transition. They also argue that the UK should reduce the ‘discount rate’ and spend much more on emission reductions now to avert future costs to the Treasury. ICYMI, read our analysis of the OBR’s report explaining how the costs of net zero are greater without “decisive action” and “early steps” to mitigate climate change‍
• Economic case for urgency. The CCC emphasised that high fossil fuel prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “reinforce the case for a rapid transition away from fossil fuels” which could save the economy 0.5% of GDP. Carbon Brief’s analysis noted that previous reports estimated the transition to a net zero carbon would cost less than 1% of GDP (“not including health benefits, the benefits of avoided climate impacts or the potential economic benefits of investment in infrastructure for net-zero”).

‍

Policies for improving energy efficiency. Given that the CCC’s Director of Analysis, Mike Thompson argued “This is the time for a government to be bold and to help people do what a lot of people want to do anyway. There’s no shortage at all of good ideas out there”, we have collated some proposals for decarbonising heat and buildings below:

• Improving energy efficiency in your constituency. NEF’s campaign for a Great Homes Upgrade has produced a campaign toolkit to lobby local MPs to demand action on energy efficiency. CLES have co-produced an Energy Futures Toolkit to help community-led energy planning, an approach which: allows local people to engage in energy transition planning and action, generates valuable neighbourhood-level data to inform the approach to and delivery of the local energy transition, and enables the activation of community-led and owned initiatives which can build community wealth as part of the energy transition. 
• Low carbon heat installation and skills shortages. A new report from the TUC and Electrify Heat Coalition outlined the role of heat pumps in building a high-wage, high-skill economy. The report is particularly timely as the CCC outlined skilled worker shortages as a ‘major risk’ in the government’s plans to decarbonise heat and buildings. 
• Ban on gas boilers. Chairman of the National Infrastructure Commission, Sir John Armitt, has called on the government to ban gas boilers, replicating the ban on new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. In the University of Birmingham’s Energy Institute report ‘Pathways for Local Heat Delivery’, Sir John argues that “unless we replace 24 million gas boilers, we will never reach net zero”. 
• Funding to permanently lower household bills. The Director General of the CBI, Tony Danker, has called for “all-out” action on energy efficiency measures to combat the cost of living crisis. Danker advocated for a “new normal of energy efficiency” instead of a “new normal of billion-pound bailouts every quarter”. He argued that £5.2 billion was needed annually to insulate homes (with £1 billion dedicated to retrofitting) which he compared to the £22 billion worth of cost of living support announced in Spring by the Chancellor and further £15 billion in May. 
• Labour’s ‘energy efficiency revolution’. Shadow Climate and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband outlined 5 recommendations for the upcoming Energy Bill, advocating Labour’s £6bn per year plan to insulate 2 million homes this year and the other 19m that need it this decade. They calculated that this could cut bills by up to £400, gas imports by 15% and reduce fuel poverty.

Summer of glory? Yesterday, criminal barristers in England and Wales began a strike over legal aid fees, following three days of industrial action by the RMT union last week. Other public sector groups such as NHS staff, teachers and care workers could also go on strike, leading some to predict a ‘summer of unrest’. Progressive Economy Forum’s James Meadway puts a positive spin on the planned industrial action, dubbing this the ‘labour movement’s summer of glory’. 

• A break with a failing past. Meadway refutes comparisons of today’s situation with the 1970s, arguing that there is no wage-price spiral and that trade union membership is "far below" what it was during the winter of discontent. However, he also says that "one way in which the 1970s comparison can work’ is that public sector industrial action could lead to a change in the economic paradigm. In the same way that the disputes of the 1970s led to the ‘consolidation of neoliberalism’, today’s disputes could usher in a different economic settlement and a ‘break with a failing past". 

‍

Further restrictions on union freedoms. Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has said that agency workers could be brought in to break what he calls ‘Marxist’ strikes and says that the measure will be introduced during the current RMT dispute if it is not resolved. Plans to ‘bus in’ agency workers to cross picket lines is "just the latest attempt to curb the right to strike", says the TUC’s Tim Sharp. Sharp argues that the use of agency staff to replace striking workers could put the public ‘at risk’ due to lack of training and would "most likely breach international law". The UK has already been criticised in this area, with the ILO Committee of Experts already concluding that British law does not do enough to protect strikers from being replaced by agency workers. Even the Spectator’s Brendan O’Neill has criticised the government’s proposal, saying that "the right to withdraw labour (is one)of the most important freedoms people enjoy."

• Rights for agency workers. Agency workers have very little power to avoid breaking strikes if the government’s plans go through as they will often not be told before turning up to a shift that they will be breaking a strike. Furthermore, they are not protected from ‘suffering a detriment’ if they refuse shifts on the basis that they are replacing striking workers. 
• History of anti-trade union legislation. Barrister and author David Renton gives a backdrop to the current situation and provides a history of the UK’s anti-trade union laws and explains why Britain has "the most restrictive anti-union laws in Europe". Renton outlines how the promotion of tribunals as an alternative to strikes - by both Conservative and Labour governments - has played a key part in weakening trade union power and how the RMT’s recent action has bucked this trend. 
• The Trade Union Act 2016. Many barriers to industrial action today were introduced as part of the Trade Union Act 2016 (TUA). The TUA brought in new restrictions on how trade unions and their members could take industrial action, fund political parties, and conduct their duties. The bill brought in a higher threshold for ballot turnouts and doubled the amount of notice trade unions must give to employers before going on strike. The Institute of Employment Rights (IER) has published a handy guide to the Act. 
• Electronic strike ballots scrapped. As the government escalates its ‘war with unions’, the Business Secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, is rowing back on plans to allow unions to introduce electronic strike ballots. The move, which was first introduced by David Cameron in 2016, would have made it easier for unions to organise strikes. TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady called Kwarteng’s decision an "absurd", "hypocritical" and "a feeble attempt to look tough by a government that wants to stoke a culture war against unions". 

‍

Trade union membership today. The general trend of trade union membership over the past few decades has been one of steady decline. While over half of workers were unionised at the peak of trade union membership in the 1970s, the figure today stands at just over 23 percent. What’s more, only 13.7 percent of private sector workers now have their pay set by bargaining between unions and employers, claims Sarah O’Connor in the Financial Times. However, membership has started to rise very slightly in recent years. In 2020, 23.7% of workers were unionised compared to the low of 23.3% in 2017.

• Different demographics. According to government statistics, this rise has been largely due to the rise in female trade union membership. From a low of 25.6% in 2017, the percentage of female workers now unionised stands at 27.2%. 
• ‘Good news and bad news’. The TUC unpacks the data behind the steady increase in trade union membership over the past four years, claiming that while membership has increased in the public sector, union membership in the private sector has fallen by more than 100,000. 

‍

The case for collective bargaining. The government’s new offensive against trade unions is against the tide internationally, where unions and collective bargaining are coming back into vogue among governments and policy-makers.The OECD has said that collective bargaining is the best way to deliver better work. Though it has previously promoted breaking up sectoral bargaining institutions, it now argues that collective bargaining can tackle inequality, boost productivity, manage industrial change, keeps people in jobs and is good for employment. The TUC’s Kate Bell outlines the OECD evidence that trade unions can benefit from. 

• Collective bargaining key to post-pandemic recovery. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has said that collective bargaining is crucial to global recovery post-pandemic. ‘The higher the percentage of employees covered by collective agreements, the lower the wage inequality’, argued the ILO’s Director-General Guy Ryder. 
• Collective bargaining across the world. At the end of last year, Spain passed legislation restoring sectoral collective bargaining in law. Similarly, the New Zealand government has announced its intention to move forward with sectoral ‘Fair Play Agreements’. 
• Collective bargaining prevents inequality in Europe. In a comparative analysis of trade unionism in Europe, a study by UNI Europa finds that weakening collective bargaining is a "key driver behind increasing income inequality in Europe". Declining collective bargaining has been associated with a rise in income of the top 10% in both Germany and the UK while countries which maintained high levels of collective bargaining (such as Austria and Belgium) have ‘kept inequality at bay’. 
• Collective bargaining and industrial strategy. Unite the Union has proposed a "new industrial strategy for post-Brexit trade" based on collective bargaining. The union calls for a new approach to support coordination between reps across industries to take account of the fact that industries are now organised so that all workplaces exist within supply chains rather than in isolation.

‍

‍Labour’s position on collective bargaining. The Labour Party has been criticised by unions for not backing recent and proposed strike action. However, at its conference last year, the party launched its Green Paper on Employment Rights which included a commitment to Fair Pay Agreements. It said it would "empower workers to act collectively through Fair Pay Agreements’ which would be negotiated ‘through sectoral collective bargaining – starting in the adult social care sector". The agreements would see government bring together worker and employer representatives from sectors to negotiate pay and conditions.

Fanning the flames of inflation? As RMT members press ahead with strike action this week, Boris Johnson has warned of a ‘wage-price spiral’ should workers demand higher pay. In a speech delivered in Blackpool earlier this month, the Prime Minister said that wage increases could ‘fan the flames’ of inflation and argued that the ‘one cure’ to such a spiral would be ‘to slam the brakes on rising prices with higher interest rates’. The sentiment echoed Andrew Bailey’s instruction to workers not to ask for a pay rise and Treasury minister Simon Clarke’s warning that employers should be ‘very careful’ in setting pay rises. 

• Are wages rising? Warnings of a wage-price spiral come as real pay in the UK falls at the fastest rate in at least 20 years. Figures for April this year saw a drop in pay of 3.4%, the highest monthly fall in pay in two decades, according to ONS figures which date back to 2001. The Resolution Foundation’s Torsten Bell notes that average pay fell, in real terms, across the months of March and April and said that anyone seeing signs of a wage-price spiral must have had ‘something strong in their coffee’. 
• The response. Following the PM’s Blackpool speech, 67 leading economists and economic policy experts wrote to the Prime Minister saying that his warnings of a wage-price spiral were misplaced. The letter argued that inflation comes from ‘huge external factors’, and ‘is not a product of domestic wage demands’. Economists urged the government to take further action to combat the cost of living crisis with ‘substantial increases in the minimum wage, public sector pay, and social security payments.’ The TUC held a ‘Demand Better’ rally on Saturday 18th June (livestream recording here). 

‍

A myth? Grace Blakeley argues that the current ‘wage-price spiral’ debate is based on a myth and that any current union action is focused on demanding wage increases in line with inflation, not above it. With workers ‘simply not in a position to demand higher wages’, external factors such as the war in Ukraine and supply chain issues clearly have a much stronger impact on inflation than wage demands, she argues. 

• It’s not the 1970s. Meanwhile, a wage-price spiral is unlikely due to weak unions and a fragmented labour market, argues Sarah O’Connor. Comparing the current situation to the 1970s makes little sense when only 23 percent of workers are unionised compared to over half of employees during the peak of union membership, she explains. What’s more, only 13.7 percent of private sector workers now have their pay set by bargaining between unions and employers and much higher percentages of self employed workers mean that the relationship between wage setting and inflation looks very different in 2022. Likewise, Sam Ashworth-Hayes argues in the Spectator that wages will only rise due to a labour market running hot, not because of successful union bargaining. 
• Overshoot: Even the Bank of England have admitted that it is not wage claims that are driving this inflation crisis, arguing recently at a select committee that around 80% of the inflation overshoot was driven by external shocks with only 20% caused by the reaction of firms and wages.

‍

Public sector pay. There is little evidence of a wage-price spiral taking hold, argues Richard Partington. While headline pay has risen by 8% in the private sector, public sector workers are seeing pay growth of only 1.5%, making this ‘the worst decade for real-terms pay growth since the Napoleonic war’. In real terms, nurses and paramedics are £2,000 a year worse off, while pay growth in the education sector is at just 0.3%. On Monday, Simon Clarke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, confirmed that public sector workers should not expect a pay rise in line with inflation and therefore should expect a real terms cut. 

• Skewed by bonuses. Even relatively high wage inflation in the private sector may be skewed by bonuses for top earners, according to ONS data. While growth in average total pay including bonuses was 6.8% from February to April this year, the growth in regular pay excluding bonuses was only 4.2%. The TUC has found that bonuses for high-paid City workers in the finance and insurance sectors are rising six times faster than average wages.

‍

Profits-price spiral. Inflation is being driven by run-away profits, not wages, according to new research by the IPPR and Common Wealth. The analysis finds that the profits of the largest non-financial companies were up 34 percent at the end of 2021 compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, these profits are highly concentrated, with only 25 firms making up 90 percent of increases in profits. Furthermore, these companies are mainly located in a small number of industries - particularly in energy. With such considerable market power, these companies are able to drive up prices and have a disproportionate impact on the cost of living, the report argues. Common Wealth has summarised the key findings of the report in this thread and the IPPR’s Carsten Jung has more detail here. 

• ‘Using inflation as an excuse’. Servaas Storm argues that by using ‘algorithmic pricing and AI’, large corporations are using inflation as an ‘excuse’ to drive up prices and increase profit margins, which they are able to do thanks to their large market share. 
• Across the Atlantic. Hal Singer, managing director of Econ One, argues that the answer to the cost of living crisis in the US is not to curb wages or to raise interest rates but to tackle monopolies and to pursue ‘anticompetitive conduct’. ‘Biden needs to communicate to the public that he supports efforts to tamp down inflation outside of the traditional interest-rate-hike paradigm’, he argues. (For more on New competition policy emerging in the US, see our previous digest.)
• Competition policy in the UK. Andrea Coscelli, CEO of the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority warned that uncompetitive markets are driving up the cost of living in the UK: "The level to which markets are dominated by a limited number of companies is higher than before the 2008...If competition is weak, firms do not face the same pressures to keep prices down”. Michelle Meagher, John Christensen and Nicholas Shaxson have launched the Balanced Economy Project to tackle monopolies and excessive concentrations of market power around the world. 

Right to Buy extended. Last week the Prime Minister gave a speech announcing plans to help 1.5m housing association tenants buy their social housing through an extension of Right to Buy (RtB). Tenants will be given a 35%-70% discount on their mortgage deposits depending on how long they have lived in the property and the £6,000 savings limit (where Universal Credit payments begin to taper) altered to encourage claimants to save without it impacting their benefit entitlement. The PM also announced a mortgage review (due to report back in the Autumn) which could see the return of 100% or 98% mortgages, according to the Spectator.  

• History of Right to Buy. RtB was a pillar of Margaret Thatcher’s policy platform in the 1980s. It is estimated the sale of 2m social homes at discount rates through the Right to Buy scheme has led to the loss of £75 billion to the public finances since 1980. This has not been accompanied by sufficient investment to replace homes lost (Shelter calculates an average annual net loss of 29,000 social homes since 1991).
• Risks further reducing availability of housing. Consequently, Johnson’s proposal includes a 1 for 1 commitment to replace any social housing lost through the scheme. The Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman reported the policy caused division in the Cabinet between the PM and Michael Gove: “Officials had not even undertaken an impact assessment on how it will affect social housing stock, or how many new homes will be needed to replace those sold off…The Treasury is also refusing to provide extra funds, leaving Gove with a further headache about how to pay for it.” Gove explained the importance of building more social housing at the same time to prevent further loss of social homes and has previously been a critic of the RtB policy for this reason.

‍

Will it work? The success of the proposal relies on the ability of Universal Credit claimants to save enough to take up the mortgages, and on the ability of government to deliver increased supply of social housing. However, housing associations are not directly controlled by governments and demand-side stimulus alone will further fuel house price inflation, making home ownership even more unaffordable for those not yet on the housing ladder.

• Take-up. The proposal is based on a pilot from 2018 which showed that if it was rolled out nationally, only 17% of eligible tenants would be able to afford to participate. Lindsay Judge, the research director at the Resolution Foundation, said the changes to mortgages for those on benefits was likely to have limited impact. “More than four in five families on means-tested benefits have no savings at all and high cost of living pressures means a second change that allows benefit recipients to save into certain savings accounts without seeing their benefits cut is unlikely to lead to a surge in savings.”
• Building more social housing. There are over 1m households currently on waiting lists for social housing. Jonathan Rolande, from the National Association of Property Buyers, said: “Housing Associations are usually private entities who will need to be compensated for the enforced discount, so it appears that there will be a net loss for the taxpayer, rather than the ‘gain’ of the council house sales”. Kate Henderson, Chief Executive of the National Housing Federation, said: “Pilots have shown that there is not enough money from sales to build new social homes to replace those sold, meaning a net loss of social housing.” NEF’s Simon Hill argues that “Why would councils pay to build homes, only to sell them at a discount, lose income from future rental payments and not receive the full sale receipt?...Extending the policy to housing associations will only extend this disincentive to more providers of social housing, slowing social housebuilding when it needs to be sped up.” 

‍

Political maneuvering. The proposal has been widely interpreted as a piece of desperate political maneuvering from the Prime Minister after winning his vote of no confidence last week. The move to stimulate demand for home-ownership (and further increase house prices) could be seen as an emergent electoral strategy from the government; read Christine Berry and Laurie MacFarlane’s recent piece on the economic and electoral strategy of ‘Johnsonism’: ‘catering to their new voters in the so-called ‘Red Wall’ with promises of a more activist state, whilst also seeking to reassure and protect their core constituency – rentier capital.’ 

• Home-ownership and voting patterns. This chart from the House of Commons Library shows the electoral benefit the Conservatives receive from getting more people on the housing ladder. Author and academic Keir Milburn featured in a short video explaining how the political generation gap is rooted in the diverging material interests of the young and old, and mediated by property ownership: “The material interests of older cohorts might be leading some of them to look away from the pressing crises of the present.”
• Housing benefits and state-subsidy of landlords. The proposal aims to reduce the government’s housing benefits bill. £30bn of government investment goes to private landlords through housing benefits, referred to as the ‘state-subsidisation model’: “with the state paying landlords to house people, rather than building houses – and therefore owning assets – with which to house the population”. The OBR has warned that without action, the government could be paying £50bn per year in housing benefit to private landlords by 2050. Over 40% of council housing sold off through the original RtB scheme are now rented privately, known as ‘right-to-buy-to-let’. A new report from the CPS argued that the benefit system is fundamentally biased towards keeping people as tenants rather than owners, finding that just 2.3p is spent on incentivising ownership among low and middle earners for every pound that subsidises renting.
• Rentierism. The lack of housebuilding in recent years reflects the broader transformation of housing and the land it sits on into a financial asset and a public policy preference for private home ownership. Land and property have become both the most attractive form of collateral for the banking system and the most desirable form of financial asset for households and investors. Joe Bilsborough explains how “For decades, Britain's governments have designed public policy to benefit property owners and landlords to the detriment of everyone else” as the UK’s political economy becomes increasingly defined by “rentierisation; and the successful creation of a class of asset-owners whose wealth appears inextricably linked with the maintenance of Conservative control at Westminster.” The FT’s Stephen Bush counted the proposal as the 7th demand-side measure the Conservatives have introduced since 2010, all of which have pushed up house prices: “there was the revitalisation of Right to Buy in 2011, the two incarnations of the ‘Help to Buy’ scheme, the Help to Buy ISA, various measures to encourage shared ownership, changes to required deposit ratios, and the stamp duty cut.” (NEF explored the historic role of banks and the financial system, supported by government policies, in fuelling house price growth – with housing wealth now making up almost half of total household assets.)

‍

Proposals for a better housing system. Housing charity Shelter proposes that 3.1 million homes should be built over the next 20 years. While local authorities now have the power to borrow, the reality of their funding situation means they will need support from national government to deliver on that kind of ambition. 

• Stimulating housebuilding. In its review of the future of social housing, Shelter calls for a 'decisive and generational shift in housing policy'. Its proposed programme of investment and reform includes a new housing regulator, a renewal of public housebuilding in mixed communities, with all homes sold being replaced, and the creation of permanent tenancies as a legal minimum for all private renters. 
• New powers NEF are today launching Homes for Us, a new campaign which argues for a programme aiming to build 2 million affordable and desirable social homes by 2040 and proposes ending Right to Buy and granting new powers to councils to compulsory purchase poor quality rental homes. The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change calls for a Sovereign Property Fund – a national endowment to support local councils to build new housing. The Fund would centralise oversight of all the land in public ownership. ‍
• Community Land Trusts. In 'The Policies of Belonging', centre-right think tank Onward recommends giving communities the right to establish Community Land Trusts (CLTs) to develop community-led housing. The National Community Land Trust Network supports community land trusts through funding, resources, training and advice and works with government, local authorities, lenders and funders to establish the best conditions for CLTs to grow and flourish.

World’s largest 4 day week trial begins in the UK. Over 3,300 workers from 70 UK companies from a wide range of sectors began participating in the world’s largest trial of working time reduction this week. 

• Context. The 4 Day Week Global is organising the pilot in partnership with Autonomy, the 4 Day Week UK Campaign and researcher Juliet Shor along with other academics from Cambridge, Oxford and Boston universities. Researchers will measure the trial’s impact on productivity of the business, wellbeing of workers and the impact upon the environment and gender equality for six months. (The 4 Day Week Campaign’s Joe Ryle summarised the trials on Good Morning Britain.) 
• No loss in pay. Participants will be working 80% of the time for 100% of their pay, in exchange for a commitment to maintain at least 100% productivity. Workers in many countries (including the UK) already have the right to ask for shorter and more flexible hours, but this is very difficult for those on low wages. A key feature of many shorter working time proposals is therefore that this should not be accompanied by a reduction in pay, especially for low earners. 
• Public support. A poll by Survation showed that two thirds of the British public would support the government piloting a four day week with no reduced pay, with only 13% opposing. Surveys have shown “consistently” growing support for a four-day week since the beginning of the pandemic.  Nearly 300,000 small and medium-sized UK businesses and over 840,000 employees are already working a four-day week and over 1 million UK firms and 3 million employees could move to a four-day week in the near future. A survey by productivity charity Be the Business found one in five small British firms are at least actively considering a four day week.

‍

Background. There is nothing inherently fixed about the standard working week of 9-5 Mondays to Fridays. ‘Normal’ work hours have changed over time, with the weekend and bank holidays as we know them today being the products of campaigning by workers and trade unions in the past. Reducing working hours has been a longstanding proposal to improve working life and the balance between work, leisure and important unpaid activity such as care. 

• Future of work and automation. A previous report from Autonomy and the 4 Day Week campaign situated the shorter working week as a response to some of the fundamental factors changing the nature of work in the UK, such as precarious work, the threat of automation, and inequalities. The UK Labour Party’s Alternative Models of Ownership policy paper proposed a gradual implementation of a shorter working week to fairly share the productivity gains from increased automation with workers.
• Improving working conditions. More recently, firms have been increasingly using the four day week to attract and retain more staff whilst the labour market remains tight. This poses an alternative to competing on pay during an inflationary period.
• The relevance of shorter working time schemes after the pandemic. A widely cited template for a shorter working week is the German Kurzarbeit (short-work) scheme (summarised here by the New Economics Foundation), which was resurrected in the light of Covid to help support workers through its employment impacts. The TUC called for a permanent short-time working scheme to continue to support incomes and limit job losses in times of economic crisis as a replacement to the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and Self Employed Income Support Scheme. The TUC’s Kate Bell collated evidence showing the “undoubted success” of the schemes in protecting jobs and incomes over the course of the pandemic, but called for them to be built upon to protect workers from future economic change (such as the green transition), with an emphasis on training furloughed workers.

‍

Criticism. Critics of working time reductions argue that they would be expensive - even when productivity is rising in some sectors, it is not in all. Frederick Harry Pitts published a critical take on the issues that may arise in trying to implement a four-day working week, concluding that “the four-day week may seem impractical in the short term. But with talk of ‘building back better’ and ‘levelling up’ backed up by a more interventionist industrial policy across the political spectrum, the medium-to-long term picture offers proponents some measure of hope”. 

• Various methods of implementation. However, the four day week doesn’t have to be implemented through legislation. A poll of 500 C-suite business leaders found that 65 per cent of UK businesses were already implementing a four-day week for some or all of their employees. The TUC’s annual Congress last year passed a virtual motion calling for a three-day weekend with no reductions in wages, with a working group of trade union representatives discussing how to implement the policy in each sector. 

‍

Evidence so far. This trial follows many previous experiments with shortening the length of the working week. (Follow the European Network for the Fair Sharing of Working Time’s newsletter for developments in working time reduction across Europe.)

• Productivity. Supporters note that as productivity rises it is possible to take the gains as increased leisure time rather than income. This would have the additional benefit of spreading the available work more widely. Some advocates argue that it could even help increase productivity, as employees may work harder in their reduced hours. 4 Day Week Global has produced a White Paper which outlines guidelines for organisations to implement an outcome-based trial of a four day week and how to measure productivity changes.  
• Wellbeing. Autonomy has sought to estimate the net cost of the UK public sector moving to a four day week. The think tank's report on Iceland’s trials to shorten the working week for public sector workers with no reduction in pay concluded that productivity and service provision remained the same or improved across a majority of trial workplaces, worker wellbeing improved dramatically and the trials remained revenue neutral for the government and city council. 
• Environment. A study from the Four Day Week campaign found that a four day week with no loss in pay could cut UK emissions by 21%.‍
• Gender equality. Women’s Budget Group released a policy paper from the Feminist Green New Deal project which found that “a shorter working week, as part of a wider set of policy changes, can promote gender-equal distributions in paid work, unpaid work, and income, while facilitating a green transition. Paper authors Özlem Onaran and Robert Calvert Jump used time-use data from the pandemic and international case studies in order to understand the benefits of a shorter working week. The Japanese government’s annual economic policy guidelines include a recommendation that companies permit their staff to opt for a four day week to improve work-life balance, increase staff retention for those with caring commitments and encourage adult education.

The ‘Energy Profits Levy’. The government acquiesced to cross-party calls for a windfall tax last week, announcing a 25% “Energy Profits Levy” to partly fund a £15bn package of support for households struggling with rising energy bills. Paired with the Energy Bill Rebate, all households will now receive financial support ranging from £550 to £1200 depending on means-testing. (Read Carbon Brief’s summary of the package and surrounding media coverage, and read the Resolution Foundation’s analysis of the ‘broadly progressive’ distributional impacts.)

• Not a one-off, but time-limited, windfall tax. The levy takes the combined rate of tax on profits on oil and gas firms from 40% to 65%, raising ~£5bn. The government plans to use legislation to phase out the 25% tax rise “if oil and gas prices return to historically more normal levels” or by 2025 at the latest. 
• ‘Investment allowance’ for oil and gas extraction. The levy includes ‘a ‘super-deduction’ style Investment Allowance’. This gives fossil fuel firms a tax break (up to 91%) for immediate investments in fossil fuel extraction. There is no similar tax break for investing in renewables. E3G argues that this tax break of up to £5.7bn in “lost revenue could have instead supercharged an energy efficiency drive, insulating two million British homes over the same period, with an average bill saving of £342 per household every year.”‍
• Support for fossil fuels in the UK tax system. A previous report by NEF outlines how the UK government continues to subsidise fossil fuels by ~£12bn on average per year, despite pledging to phase out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” at COP26. The Treasury is arguing that tax breaks are not fossil fuel subsidies. Uplift’s response argues that UK taxpayers will be footing the bill with no obvious public benefit (as most new fields are oil, likely to be exported): “Every new field means money that should be going to households to keep warm this winter, is going to oil and gas companies.”

‍

Is the stimulus enough to prevent recession? Media coverage highlighted the generous size of the package, but the stimulus will not fully offset the effects of the Energy Price Cap’s rise in the Autumn on household incomes - described as ‘catastrophic’ by National Energy Action’s Adam Scorer. (NEF’s Chaitanya Kumar explains that the poorest households are still ~£700 poorer on average, despite two packages of support so far this year.)

• Will it be inflationary? Many economists are debating whether the Bank of England may respond to the ~£10bn fiscal expansion with more monetary tightening to attempt to bring inflation back under control. Economist Richard Murphy argues that the package is not inherently inflationary as it only reduces household debt and is primarily recaptured by energy firms as more households will be able to pay higher energy bills (not ‘an excess of funds to then be spent on other goods’), but the IFS’s Paul Johnson argued the package could herald higher inflation if it signals that government  are likely to spend more, including bowing to demands for higher public sector pay. (The Guardian’s Phillip Inman explains why the Bank of England is ‘duty bound’ to raise interest rates and trigger recessions.) 
• The need for better macroeconomic coordination. In February, the International Monetary Fund recommended the UK government raise ‘windfall or wealth taxes’ to reduce inflationary pressure, and suggested this would be preferable to the sole use of higher interest rates to tackle inflation. Read a previous paper from NEF’s Frank van Lerven and IIPP’s Josh Ryan-Collins illustrating examples of fiscal-monetary coordination that “proved useful in stimulating economic growth, supporting industrial policy objectives and managing public debt without excessive inflation.”

‍

Political fallout: free marketers vs pragmatists? Politico detailed the ideologies at play in the various responses given by different Conservative figures. Richard Drax accused the Chancellor of throwing ‘red meat to socialists’ in the Commons, but the package largely went down well with ‘Conservative MPs who are most worried about the cost of living crisis’, such as ‘Compassionate Conservatism’ advocate Robert Halfon who told Playbook: ‘I’m not interested in ideology. I’m interested in doing the right thing for millions of people in our country who are struggling.’ One unnamed Conservative MP told the Sun’s Kate Ferguson that colleagues criticising the package are “ideological nut jobs living in a fantasy world. They should spend less time at the Adam Smith Institute and more time down at Lidl.’ 

• Embedding the paradigm shift. The New Statesman’s Freddie Hayward argues that Labour has ‘set the economic agenda and further entrenched a paradigm shift towards a larger, more interventionist state’. The Times’ James Forsyth explains that Conservatives feared the windfall tax proposal as it ‘risks suggesting a sea-change in favour of Labour and left-wing ideas’. The Institute for Economic Affairs’ Kate Andrews warned that the windfall tax makes it easier for the government (or a future Labour government) to levy excess profit taxes on other sectors.

‍

Beyond the windfall tax? The cost of living crisis is far from over and political pressure for the government to provide future packages of support will remain high. The IFS has warned that “if oil and gas prices remain high” - and analysts say they will -  “then the government will doubtless come under pressure to continue the additional household support for at least a further year”. Similarly, the Times’ James Forsyth warns that ‘these sums will really only keep the wolf from the door. This living-standards crisis will go on long enough that it won’t be the final intervention that ministers will have to make.” So what form could future interventions take?

• A higher windfall tax. Tax Justice UK modelled how a 95% tax on excess profits could raise £12.9bn instead of the £5bn in the government's package. (NB The tax rate on oil and gas was 75% in 2015 and 80% in 2014, and the global average is 70%.) Tax Justice UK suggests that there will be “plenty of opportunities to push for a higher rate on energy giants as the windfall tax is debated in Westminster” as it “has to be voted through Parliament, probably in the Autumn.”
• Struggling businesses remain unsupported. Economist Duncan Weldon highlighted that the package ignored any financial assistance for smaller firms also struggling from higher energy prices. The FSB’s Craig Beaumont also noted in Politico’s London Playbook that the energy price cap doesn’t protect businesses from rising costs and the FSB has since called for more support as 500,000 small businesses are ‘at risk of going bust within weeks’.
• Energy efficiency. Reducing businesses’ and households’ exposure to volatile energy prices throughout the green transition will be key. The International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol has explained the importance of government investment in energy efficiency to help economies weather the turbulence in energy prices. The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has released a report calling for ‘Home Energy Plans’ to provide households with advice, blended loans and grants coupled with supply side drivers to reduce bills and decarbonize over time. NEF’s Great Homes Upgrade is campaigning for a £11.7bn investment to fund a 'national retrofit taskforce' to upgrade all homes to EPC rating of C by 2030. 
• Fixing the energy market. Global Action Plan’s Andrew Pendleton explains why the package locks consumers into high energy bills and doesn’t solve underling problems in the energy market, as the government is taxing energy producers to fund households to be able to repay the high prices set by energy suppliers. The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change’s Tim Lord outlines the problems with the energy retail market that enables Ofgem to protect suppliers interests at the expense of consumers. (Twitter thread summary here). 
• Contesting the price cap and the role of public ownership. Economist James Meadway argues for keeping Energy Price Cap at its current level and nationalising any energy suppliers that fail as a result, following the experience of Bulb in 2021. Common Wealth makes the case for taking the energy sector back into public ownership and We Own It calculated that bringing ‘the privatised monopolies of energy transmission and distribution’ into public ownership could save £3.7bn a year and other research has shown that energy prices are 20-30% lower in systems that have publicly owned energy suppliers. 

Easing the cost of living crisis through business tax cuts? Chancellor Rishi Sunak addressed business leaders at the CBI’s annual dinner last week, giving a speech that affirmed the role of businesses in the government's plan to ease the cost of living crisis. (Transcript here and video here.) A central part of the governments’ strategy is to use tax cuts to stimulate business investment: “higher productivity is the only way to raise living standards”, the Chancellor proclaimed.

• Philosophy: ‘New culture of enterprise’. The Chancellor outlined his vision to stimulate a ‘new culture of enterprise’ in his Mais lecture, which rejected a role for the state in boosting or guiding investment. Instead tax cuts hope to stimulate business investment, innovation and productivity, eventually feeding through into higher living standards through wage growth. (The PM also stressed ‘work’ as the fix for the cost of living crisis on Monday, despite the TUC’s latest forecasts predicting a 17 year pay squeeze with wages remaining lower than their 2008 levels until 2026.) 
• Conservative support for tax cuts. Tax cuts are supported by large swathes of the Conservative party and have growing support in the Cabinet. Conservative grandee David Davis called them a ‘fundamental tenet of Conservativism’ in his piece expressing opposition to the windfall tax proposal. Similarly, No.10 advisors David Canzini, Guto Harri, Steve Barclay and Andrew Griffith have resisted calls for a windfall tax on grounds of it being ‘unconservative’. Backbench MPs such as the Chair of the Northern Research Group Jake Berry, have been lobbying for tax cuts on business to ease cost pressures in Red Wall constituencies.
• How did business respond? Politico’s analysis details the “muted reception” from business leaders, with some calling the address “very bland and uninspiring” and “lacking anything new” despite growing pressure on the Chancellor to introduce an immediate package of support. 

‍

The 'Super-Deduction' tax break. The Sun’s Harry Cole reports that the Chancellor may increase R&D tax allowances and extend tax breaks for investments in the Autumn Budget. The 130% ‘Super-Deduction’ on corporation tax, introduced in the 2021 Spring Budget, was pitched as a way of incentivising businesses to invest in more capital machinery, boosting innovation and productivity - branded “the biggest business tax cut in British history” by its supporters and the ‘Amazon tax cut’ by its critics.

• What does the evidence say? The Treasury’s own analysis found that the government pays far more in R&D tax reliefs than businesses spend on investment, and that the UK continues to have one of the lowest investment levels in the OECD, despite the generous relief structure. A survey by Deloitte found that only 26% of CFOs expected the super-deduction to have a positive effect on their investment plans over the next year. The CBI’s survey found that, of the 56% of businesses planning to claim for the tax cut, only 19% said this brought forward existing investment plans. Tax Watch’s George Turner explains how the super-deduction benefits companies who have already made large windfalls during the pandemic and “who were planning to make capital expenditure regardless of the incentives available” anyway, such as Amazon and energy firms.
• Broad spectrum of criticism. Ex-PM Theresa May called increasing capital allowances “Treasury orthodoxy” in her critique of the super-deduction and instead called for “increasing investment and support investment in areas which encourage growth and innovation, and that means R&D”. IPPR’s George Dibb noted that the eligibility for the super-deduction was expanded to include landlords “to prop up the UK’s rentier economy”, despite being framed as a policy to increase investment and create a high-wage, high innovation economy. Industrialist Juergen Maier notes that business investment is 35% below pre-Brexit trend and called for businesses to “speak up” and call for “a more pragmatic version of Brexit”.

‍

Alternative industrial strategies to ease the cost of living crisis. Given that business investment actually fell by 0.5% in the first quarter of this year, there are growing calls from both Left and Right for alternative economic strategies to be considered both to address the immediate crisis and to put the economy on a path to higher wages and productivity.

• Short term packages of support. Martin McTague, the new national chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses, says the Chancellor should ignore calls to extend the super-deduction and provide more help for small firms with rising energy costs. The British Chambers of Commerce have called for a variety of measures to ease the costs of doing business and prevent firms passing on further price rises, including a temporary energy price cap for small businesses and widening eligibility for the Energy Bill Rebate to include small firms. NEF’s Alfie Stirling noted that the ~£13bn forecast to be spent on the super deduction this year is only ~£2bn shy of the cost of protecting Universal Credit claimants from their benefits being eroded by inflation. ‍
• Longer term industrial strategy. Theresa May’s former adviser Nick Timothy recently called for a “radical change to this economic model” which is overly dependent on consumption despite too many low-income people being trapped in “low-productivity, low-skill, low-paid jobs”. Sunak’s speech differs starkly from the one CBI Director-General Tony Danker gave last year, dubbed as a “damning critique of free-market capitalism”. This exemplified the new consensus (though not in the Government) around the importance of state intervention and industrial strategy to boost investment, productivity and pay. Danker noted that “we’ve had five decades where the free market has palpably failed” and called for a “partnership with government.” For a wealth of resources on industrial strategy, visit our resource bank page, Reshaping the Economy, and read chapters from The Political Economy of Industrial Strategy in the UK, edited by academics Craig Berry, Julie Froud and Tom Barker.

GMB and Deliveroo deal. The GMB union and Deliveroo have signed an ‘historic’ Voluntary Partnership Agreement. The GMB says that the deal will give the union ‘rights to collective bargaining on pay and consultation rights on benefits and other issues, including riders’ health, safety and wellbeing’. The deal does not change Deliveroo riders’ status as self-employed, a status which has been reaffirmed by a series of court judgements. According to GMB this represents an ‘innovative’ solution to organising gig economy workers. 

• PR stunt? The Guardian reports that the deal does not secure the minimum wage for Deliveroo couriers because they are not paid while they are checked into the app and waiting for an order. The Independent Workers’ union of Great Britain (IWGB) has dubbed the deal a ‘cynical PR move’ and says that it presents ‘no threat to [Deliveroo’s] exploitative business practices’. The IWGB has been organising Deliveroo riders since 2016 was due to bring an appeal to the Supreme Court over their collective bargaining case. Professor of Labour Law, Alan Bogg, explains the deal’s implications for IWGB’s legal case. 
• The gig is up. The Deliveroo case follows a judgement last year that was set to ‘reshape the gig economy’ which defined Uber drivers as workers rather than self-employed. The Institute for Employment Rights (IER) has more detail here. Similarly, Just Eat announced last year that it would move towards employing its riders as workers with hourly wages, sick pay and pension contributions.
• Barriers to collective bargaining. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has analysed common barriers facing gig economy workers in their attempts to achieve collective bargaining. These include ‘1) promoting common interests – and overcoming competition – among workers; 2) determining a site (or multiple sites) of agglomeration – virtual, or preferably real – so as to overcome isolation; 3) identifying the bargaining counterpart, and 4) targeting a source of power to make a collective claim’.‍
• Not just food. Over recent years, there has been a rapid increase in the use of platforms to advertise care work. Helen Hester explores the ‘platform care economy’ and argues that ‘purely technical solutions’ are not enough to reckon with the conditions of care work itself. 

‍

Platform cooperatives. The same ILO study explores the rise of gig economy worker cooperatives and how they have generally taken on two different forms: platform cooperatives which operate in competition with standard gig platforms and cooperatives where workers can pool resources for improved services. Examples of the former camp include Wings, who pay workers the London Living Wage and various cooperatives across Europe. Kristin Toussaint explores how gig economy cooperatives flourished during the pandemic. Autonomy presents food delivery cooperatives as an alternative to the current system, and has produced a ‘how to’ guide for setting up a food delivery cooperative. Autonomy's James Muldoon argues that developing ‘digital economy’ cooperatives should be seen as just one aspect ‘of a broader shift of wealth and power towards workers’.

• Barriers to platform cooperatives. Edward Qualtrough explores why platform cooperatives have ‘yet to challenge Big Tech’, suggesting that cooperatives would be more successful with more government support. 
• ‘Disruption’ by workers? Rida Qadri argues that ‘disruption’ is a two-way street and that it is not just tech companies that can benefit from innovation. Examples include ‘drivers who reverse-engineer a popular mobility platform’s matching algorithm to make their work life better’ (more coverage in Vice). 

‍

Employment Bill. Conservative MP Damian Collins argued earlier this year that an employment bill would be a chance for the government to protect gig economy workers. However, the government has yet again shelved the bill despite promising to introduce it 20 times, with TUC accusing the government of “turning its back” on working people. The Employment Bill was expected to ensure that tips go to workers in full and also create a new single enforcement body offering greater protections for workers. The TUC says that such a bill is urgently needed to stop another P&O-type scandal from happening. (See our previous Digest for more on the P&O scandal and ‘fire and rehire’ policies.)

• The cost of insecure work. The TUC has said that insecure work costs the Treasury £10 billion per year in lost revenue due to chronic low pay in the gig economy and self-employed sectors. 

Deregulating childcare to ease family budgets. The government has hinted at plans to deregulate the childcare sector by raising the cap on the maximum number of children a childminder can look after, in an attempt to lower the cost of childcare and ease the cost of living for working families. 

• Fiscal rules continue to narrow the government’s policy options. The move comes after Cabinet ministers were tasked with coming up with ‘non-fiscal’ solutions as the Chancellor continues to limit departmental spending budgets outlined in the Autumn Spending Review.

‍

It’s important to address the high costs of childcare… Childcare is an under analysed driver of the cost of living crisis. A couple with median incomes and two young children pay more than 50% of the mother’s net income in childcare costs, more than double OECD average and worse than any other OECD country. In a survey of mothers by the campaign group Pregnant then Screwed, almost half of respondents had considered quitting their jobs because of childcare issues and a quarter of respondents skip meals or heating to pay for it. (Read the Women’s Budget Group’s recent briefing on the costs of childcare and the impact of the pandemic.)

• …but this proposal will reduce care quality and working conditions. Regulatory limits on ratios between childminders and children exist to preserve the quality of provision and working standards of carers. Pregnant then Screwed polled the government’s proposal and showed that only 15% of parents would be in favour of increasing ratios in childcare settings even if it would lower prices. June O’Sullivan MBE, CEO of London Early Years Foundation, wrote an open letter to the Prime Minister (with over 1000 signatures) explaining why relaxing staff:children ratios would be “catastrophic for children, parents and the sector” as it would reduce the quality of provision and reduce working conditions for staff. The sector is already facing an ‘exodus of low-paid staff’ due to poor working conditions. (Listen to writer Christine Berry, Associate Professor Kate Hardy and Pregnant then Screwed Founder Joeli Brearly discuss the ‘perfect storm’ hitting working conditions in the childcare sector on Ed Miliband’s Reasons to be Cheerful podcast.)

‍

Why does childcare cost so much in the UK? Despite government subsidy worth billions of pounds to provide a certain amount of ‘free’ care, the cost of childcare in the UK still remains among the least affordable in the world. Government-subsidised ‘free’ childcare only applies to children of certain ages, and does not cover the full amount of time necessary, leading to costly gaps to be filled by parents. The cost of plugging these gaps is then exacerbated due to the inadequate funding from the government for the 30 ‘free’ hours which drives up prices elsewhere in the system. In fact, leaked documents show that government ministers knew that this scheme would result in higher prices for parents. Underlying these issues, private sector childcare providers often extract large sums for debt repayment and paying shareholders, rather than being invested back into the frontline service. 

• Extractive ownership models. Commenting on the government’s proposals in the Guardian, writer Christine Berry explains how the private-sector model underpinning much of the childcare sector (“often backed by private equity investors and laden with debt”) is the source of high prices, low pay and working standards for childminders and poor quality provision. A UCL Social Research Institute paper explores how private-for-profit and charity (not-for-profit) sectors differed in their use of public money to subsidise childcare provision. (Check out parent-led cooperative childcare company Friendly Families for an example of best practice).

‍

Free, publicly-provided universal childcare provision.  The Women’s Budget Group is calling for the government to invest in a universal and free system, delivered as a public infrastructure service on an equal footing with school education. (Watch The Social Guarantee’s Maeve Cohen explain “why the decade long attack on public services is driving the cost of living crisis” and that it can only be addressed by properly funding public services, such as free childcare.)

• The case for public investment. Advocates argue that investment in such a system will largely pay for itself due to the big returns on maternal employment. The Women’s Budget Group estimates that 1.7 million women are prevented from taking on more hours of paid work due to childcare issues. Economists Jerome De-Henau and Susan Himmelweit calculated that 30 hours of free childcare for all children aged between 6 months and 4.5 years, with a pay rise for carers, would cost £10.4bn. This investment would create 310,000 new full time jobs and 70% of the spending could be recouped from increased tax receipts as more people are enabled to take on more work. (Jerome has costed various options for investing in a universal system of high-quality childcare, explained the employment multiplier effects, and outlined how to fund the system over time in this peer reviewed paper.)

Better Business Act. Last week a coalition of businesses and campaigners organised a lobby of Parliament for a Better Business Act. The corporate governance reform campaign is calling for an amendment to Section 172 of the 2006 Companies Act, which enshrines the principle that companies must be run in the interests of their shareholders. 

• The proposed reform. The proposed Better Business Act (full text here) would reform the ‘fiduciary duty’ of company directors so that they were obliged to ‘promote the purpose of the company’, and to ‘operate the company in a manner that benefits the members, wider society, and the environment.’ Shareholders would become one among several beneficiaries of the company, alongside employees, suppliers and customers, and directors would have to consider ‘the likely consequences of any decision in the long term’.
• Widespread backing. The Better Business Act campaign was set up by B Lab UK, which coordinates ‘B Corps’ businesses (see below). It is now backed by over 1000 companies, including well-known names such as Iceland, Anglian Water and Innocent, and its spokespeople include government retail adviser Mary Portas. It has the support of the Institute of Directors, which argues that the ‘change in law will not materially affect [directors’] behaviours or the actions of their companies’, but that it will ‘ensure that no business can use short-term profit maximising to justify behaviour that’s harmful to society or the environment.’ Labour MP Margaret Hodge and Conservative MP Jonathan Djanogly have jointly written in The Times in support of the proposal, arguing that the position of ‘shareholder primacy’ in the 2006 Companies Act ‘was a fudge that needs urgent re-examination’. 

Models of corporate governance. In UK law (unlike other European countries), shareholders are given primacy in the legal duty of company directors. The 2006 Companies Act obliges directors to ‘act in the way he [sic] considers, in good faith, would be most likely to promote the success of the company for the benefit of its members [the shareholders] as a whole’. In a report for the IPPR Commission on Economic Justice, Mat Lawrence explains that shareholders are not the legal owners of firms, and that the shareholder primacy model of corporate governance contributes to the UK’s economic problems, including low and excessively short-termist investment, and inequality. 

• Stakeholder capitalism. The Better Business Act proposal emerges out of the wider movement for ‘stakeholder capitalism’. This argues that companies should serve all their ‘stakeholders’, including employees, customers, the environment and the communities in which they are based. Most European corporate governance systems embody some version of this principle, in which shareholders are regarded as just one of the beneficiaries of the firm. The World Economic Forum has developed many of the ideas around stakeholder capitalism. 
• Democratising the firm. Common Wealth has proposed an agenda for reforming corporate governance which goes beyond the Better Business Act and the stakeholder model. Its Commoning the Company report proposes that 45% of company boards should be elected by the workforce, 45% by the shareholder body, and 10% representing social and environmental interests. There should be mandatory profit-sharing for workers and a new duty to require company directors to align business activity with a ‘1.5 degree pathway’. 

Purposeful companies. The emphasis in the Better Business Act proposal on the ‘purpose’ of the company emerges from the idea that companies should focus on their core purpose rather than simply on (often short-term) profit making. The British Academy’s Principles for Purposeful Business argues that a stated purpose should be the primary ‘reason for a corporation’s existence and its starting point’, with profit coming second as a ‘product of a corporation’s purpose.’ It offers eight principles for business leaders and policymakers to enable companies to ‘solve the problems of people and planet profitably, while not profiting from causing harm’. The Purposeful Company is a not-for-profit organisation dedicated to promoting business purpose, set up follow a 2017 report on the value of emphasising business purpose by the Big Innovation Centre’s Purposeful Company Task Force.

• B Corporations. ‘B Corporations’ (or B Corps) are businesses that meet certified standards of social and environmental performance, public transparency, and legal accountability to balance profit and purpose. Companies awarded the B Corp standard seek to use profits and growth as a means to achieve positive impact for their employees, communities, and the environment. Since launching in 2006, only 4,500 businesses have been awarded B Corp status out of over 150,000 who have applied, due to the scheme’s strict requirements. B Corps are certified and promoted by the B Lab, based in the US. UB Lab UK is the UK offshoot, committed to ‘lead[ing] economic systems change to support our collective vision of an inclusive, equitable and regenerative economy.’ To mark last week’s Earth Day, the Independent provided an A-Z guide of B Corps in a range of sectors. 
• Measuring better business. Supported by the CBI and TUC, the Good Business Charter is an accreditation system which measures corporate behaviour in ten areas, including a real living wage, fairer hours and contracts, employee representation, diversity and inclusion, environmental responsibility, paying fair tax, and ethical sourcing. 
• Profits vs. purpose. The Financial Times’s ‘Profit and Purpose’ series examines the ‘difficult trade offs; businesses must make to balance shareholder interests with social responsibility. The series includes business case studies from Levi Strauss to Hitachi, and even a trade-off game where players have to choose between profit and purpose. 
• Is purpose enough? Anna Fielding of Cohere Partners argues that making ‘purpose’ explicit is not enough to make businesses sustainable; firms need to adopt an ‘impact strategy’ to define how they can contribute to positive change in the world.

Worker representation in corporate governance. The TUC has consistently called for workers to be elected to company boards. Its 2016 report All Aboard set out the case, showing that worker representation on boards is common in many European countries (including Germany). It argued that workers generally have a stronger commitment to a business’s success than its shareholders, who may only hold shares for a short period and can always sell. The House of Commons BEIS Select Committee concluded its investigation in 2017 by saying that worker directors should ‘become the norm’ among larger companies The TUC’s Frances O’Grady went head to head on the issue with the Adam Smith Institute’s Sam Bowman in the Guardian. 

• Participation and productivity. Mat Lawrence’s IPPR report on corporate governance looked at the relationship between worker participation on company boards and productivity, R&D investment and inequality. It used the European Participation Index (EPI) which measures the extent of workers’ rights and participation across EU countries, using four indicators: board and workplace representation, collective bargaining and trade union membership (the UK was ranked sixth from the bottom out of the EU28). It finds that high worker participation rates are positively correlated with R&D expenditure and productivity and negatively correlated with the Gini coefficient measure of income inequality.

Energy policy after the Ukraine war. Last week the Government released its plan to generate ‘secure, clean and affordable British energy for the long term’ following the rise in oil and gas prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The strategy included ambitious targets for offshore wind, the expansion of nuclear power and new North Sea oil and gas projects, but was widely criticised for doing too little to bring down energy bills or rapidly reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels. Carbon Brief analysed the implications for climate change, while EDIE rounded up the reactions. BusinessGreen’s James Murray argued that ‘it is hard to discern anything here that moves beyond filling in some of the policy gaps that should really have been plugged in the Net Zero Strategy last year.’

• Wrong priorities. University of Sheffield economist (and NEB Managing Editor) Michael Jacobs argued that the energy strategy’s priorities are the opposite of the rational policy mix which would fulfil the government's objectives. To reduce fossil fuel dependence, cut emissions, save money and ‘level up’, it would have been best to prioritise energy saving measures in homes and buildings and more onshore wind and solar, followed by offshore wind, energy storage, R&D investment in tidal and wave power and green hydrogen, with nuclear power and new North Sea oil and gas exploration last. The strategy almost literally reverses this order. It is ‘a textbook case of short-term intra-party political interests, lobbying and ideology outweighing the state policy objectives of the government.’
• No plan for implementation. IPPR’s George Dibb pointed out that the strategy included little on how it could be rapidly implemented. Drawing on the lessons of the Covid-19 vaccine (from a paper written by the government’s now axed Industrial Strategy Council), he set out how an industrial policy approach based on ‘missions’ would enable converted delivery. 
• Inquiry. The Environmental Audit Committee is inviting written submissions to address issues with the energy security strategy, deadline 6th May.

‍

Nuclear ambitions. The energy security strategy aims for nuclear power to generate 25% of the UK’s projected electricity demand by 2050 (up from around 16% now), proposing that up to eight new nuclear reactors should be built by 2030. 

• Nuclear history. Since the Labour Government committed in 2007 to a new generation of nuclear power plants to replace those coming to the ends of their lives, only one, Hinckley Point C in Somerset, has started construction. Originally scheduled to come onstream in 2017, it now looks likely to be completed in 2026. It will receive a guaranteed price for its power of £92 / Mwh, subsidised by consumers, significantly higher than that received by offshore wind (now typically under £40/Mwh). Holly Watt tells the story. 
• Nationalised company to accelerate deployment. The government is setting up a new publicly-owned company, Great British Nuclear, to bring forward new projects, alongside a £120m Future Nuclear Enabling Fund. But it will require the private sector to finance and build them. Citizens Advice’s Richard Hall warned that the ‘regulated asset base’ model the government wishes to use to de-risk new nuclear developments for the private sector will increase energy bills during the long construction phase.
• Cost reductions? The public sector innovation body the Energy Systems Catapult published a report in 2020 on how the costs of nuclear power could be brought down in future, demonstrating ‘a credible path for nuclear energy to become a competitive net zero solution alongside renewables.’ 
• Small modular reactors. The Government hopes that the new nuclear technologies of small and advanced modular reactors will be quicker and cheaper to build than traditional large-scale power plants. Energy group Terra Praxis argues that, around the world, such reactors offer the potential to replace hundreds of existing coal plants, becoming a crucial resource for decarbonising the world’s power supply.
• Nuclear waste. The energy strategy seeks to accelerate the process of finding long-term underground solutions for the storage of highly radioactive nuclear waste, which is currently stored at surface level near the Sellafield nuclear plant in Cumbria. Greenpeace’s 2019 report on the global problem of nuclear waste found that no government has yet resolved how to safely manage it. 
• Uranium mining. Uranium mining to supply nuclear fuel is carried out in a number of countries in Africa where human rights, labour and environmental conditions can be poor. Campaign group WISE has collated information on current projects. The French Institute for International Relations recently reported on conditions in uranium mines in Namibia. See Greenpeace’s video on the health and environmental impact of uranium mining in Niger. 

‍

North Sea oil and gas and fracking. The energy security strategy seeks to expand production of oil and gas in the North Sea, with the newly-renamed ‘North Sea Transition Authority’ launching another licensing round in the autumn and new ‘Gas and Oil New Project Regulatory Accelerators’ being set up to facilitate the rapid development of projects. An ‘impartial technical review’ on fracking for shale gas will be conducted by the British Geological Society.

• Misguided choices. Uplift’s Tessa Khan explains why new North Sea oil and gas production won’t help UK energy security, while a UCL paper concludes that the development of new oil and gas fields and licences in the UK is incompatible with the Paris Agreement. 
• Fracking. In its 2019 report on the prospects for fracking, the National Audit Office concluded that shale gas production would not be expected to lead to lower energy prices. Desmog’s Adam Barnett pointed out that recent polling showing alleged public support for fracking was paid for by climate sceptics. Government public opinion research shows that support for fracking is at around 17%, with 45% opposed.
• Energy security without fossil fuels. Energy think tank Ember has published a UK Clean Power Plan mapping three possible scenarios for phasing out unabated gas in the power sector by 2035. Green Alliance’s policy briefing explains why a decarbonised power system by 2035 is affordable and feasible. A study by Imperial College London shows that a predominantly renewables powered system could be 19% cheaper than today's system and the Climate Change Committee concurs that a low carbon power system could deliver system savings of £10bn by 2050 compared to a high carbon system. 

‍

Wind power. The energy security strategy announced a target of 50 gigawatts of offshore wind power generation by 2030, up from a previous goal of 40GW, and about 14 GW at present. The government aims to cut the consent approval process from four years to one. This was widely welcomed. But on onshore wind, the cheapest form of power and the fastest to deploy, it left in place the restrictive rules introduced in 2015 which make it extremely hard to obtain planning permission for onshore wind turbines.  The strategy only promises to ‘consult on developing local partnerships for a limited number of supportive communities in England who wish to host new onshore wind infrastructure in return for guaranteed lower energy bills.’ 

• Public support. Greenpeace’s Mal Chadwick rounds up the evidence showing 80% of people in the UK support onshore wind, and only 4% oppose. 

‍

Energy efficiency: the missing piece. The absence of significant new measures to support home insulation and other energy efficiency and demand reduction measures - the cheapest method of reducing energy bills and emissions - drew the strongest criticism of the strategy. UCL energy economist Michael Grubb argued that the government has ‘kicked the only possible short-term supply option into the long grass’. 

• The Government’s Heat and Buildings Strategy. The Government defended the lack of new measures by pointing to its previously published (2021) strategy. The Climate Change Committee offered its assessment last month: more money would be needed, especially as fuel poverty rises, and many policy questions have been left unanswered. 
• A national retrofitting programme. The New Economics Foundation reiterated its call for a ‘Great Homes Upgrade’ to insulate 19 million badly insulated homes by 2030. The Dutch Insulation programme announced earlier this month aims to insulate 2.5m (~30% of all) homes by 2030 through a £4bn funding programme, with additional funds to support take-up for those who can’t self-finance.
• Jobs. A study by the UK Energy Research Centre has shown that five times more jobs are created per pound spent on energy efficiency than on fossil fuels. (Twitter summary here.) 

Public opinion. ECIU polling shows that the public backs energy efficiency measures as the most important method of reducing reliance on Russian Gas (84%), higher than more renewable energy (69%) and far higher than increasing domestic gas production (41%).

The IPCC Working Group III report. The latest instalment of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released on 4th April, focused on climate mitigation. A Summary for Policymakers was also published, as well as a Technical Summary. The report concludes with a “now or never” call to action: that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must peak by 2025 if there is to be any hope of capping warming at 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: “It is time to stop burning our planet and start investing in the abundant renewable energy all around us”. 

• The IPCC. The IPCC brings together almost all the world’s climate scientists, and its reports are approved by 195 national governments, giving it a unique global political authority. IPCC Working Group I focuses on the physical effects of climate change (see our Digest ‘Code Red for Humanity’ for analysis). Working Group II detailed the social, political and economic factors that determine who will be exposed to the effects of climate change (see our Digest ‘An Atlas of Human Suffering’ for analysis). 

Key findings. The report’s key findings (‘headline statements’) include: 

• GHG emissions have continued to rise. From 2010 to 2019 they were higher than in any previous decade, but the rate of growth has slowed. 
• Emissions have risen since 2010 across all major sectors globally, and an increasing share of emissions can be attributed to urban areas. Reductions in emissions from industrial processes have been outweighed by increases in emissions in other areas. 
• There are huge regional and wealth disparities in emissions. At least 18 countries have sustained reductions in emissions for longer than 10 years.
• Low-emissions technologies have become cheaper and therefore in many cases easier to adopt. However, the adoption of such technologies has been slower in developing countries. 
• There has been a consistent expansion of mitigation policies but this is uneven across sectors.
• Progress on the alignment of financial flows towards the goals of the Paris Agreement remains slow and tracked climate finance flows are distributed unevenly across regions and sectors. 
• Global warming is likely to exceed 1.5 degrees during the 21st century, and limiting warming to below 2 degrees requires ‘rapid acceleration of mitigation efforts’. 

‍

The scale of the action needed. IPCC Working Group III has modelled over one thousand different potential global climate scenarios, divided into eight broad categories from C1 (below 1.5 C of warming) to C8 (warming of more than 4 degrees), outlining possible 21st century global warming outcomes. Carbon Brief’s Zeke Hausfather explains how each category of scenarios requires peak CO2 emissions and net-zero CO2 to occur by a certain year. C1, for example, requires peak CO2 emissions to occur between 2020 and 2025 and net-zero carbon CO2 to be achieved between 2050 and 2055. 

• “Rapid and deep” cuts. Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans highlights how achieving C1 scenarios (1.5C with no or limited overshoot) will require "rapid and deep and in most cases immediate" cuts in "all sectors". He notes that: “For the first time, the IPCC has a chapter on demand-side mitigation including shifting diets, transport patterns and material efficiency”. 
• Solutions by sector. Lead IPCC author Sarah Burch gives a sector-by-sector analysis of emissions and how to cut them. Transport, for example, is responsible for 14% of global GHG emissions and can be mitigated by a shift to “compact, complete communities” in which “active transport” (for example by foot, wheelchair or bike) is accessible. Agriculture, forestry and land use, which account for 22% of emissions, can be made less carbon intensive by a move to more plant-based diets, Burch argues. 

‍

Disparities in emissions by region. Lead IPCC author Sarah Burch notes that this is “the first time we’re seeing evidence of real, sustained decreases in greenhouse gas emissions” in places with the caveat that this is only “from some countries”. About 40% of the last decade’s emissions can be attributed to Europe and North America and only about 12% are produced by East Asia (including China). 

• Disparities in emissions by wealth. 30-45% of emissions can be attributed to the world’s wealthiest 10% of households. The World Inequality Lab’s latest report argued that we should stop thinking of emission disparities by country, and instead between the richest and poorest within countries. Among the more shocking facts in the report is that Jeff Bezos’ 11-minute flight to space was ‘responsible for more carbon per passenger than the lifetime emissions of any one of the world’s poorest billion people’.  
• Colonialism. The previous IPCC report by Working Group II was the first to mention the word ‘colonialism’. Atmos’ Yessenia Funes explores the growing conversation around climate change and colonialism. 

‍

Room for hope? Business Green’s Michael Holder highlights the IPCC report’s claim that “The world already has the technologies, expertise, and financial capabilities across every sector of the economy to halve global greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade.” Likewise, The FT’s editorial called the report “both stark and compelling” and said that “the good news is that a lot of what is needed is under way.” 

• Is politics the barrier? However, the FT’s editorial also highlighted that despite the world already possessing the necessary tools, “the larger problem is politics”. With 195 countries needing to approve the report, agreement has been slowed by countries who benefit from fossil fuel production or who lack the resources to make green adaptations. Vox’s Rebecca Leber and Umair Irfan report that the publication of the paper was delayed due to disputes over how seriously its warnings should be worded. ‍
• Industry lobbying. Climate reporter Ajit Niranjan highlights how the IPCC report does not cite industry lobbying as a problem in its summary for policy makers and yet makes several references to it in the full report. The full report notes, for example, that climate policy has often been curtailed by industry influence over government action and how lobbyists who are against climate action have been particularly “broad-based, highly organised” and “extensive”.

Reaction to the Spring Statement. The reaction to Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement last week has seen an unusual breadth of criticism. Normally Conservative-supporting newspapers, poverty-focused NGOs, most of the right of centre think tanks and a number of Conservative MPs attacked the Chancellor for doing too little for lower income households in the face of the cost of living crisis. 

• Analysis. The Resolution Foundation has produced a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the Spring Statement on living standards, complete with helpful charts. Read the full document here, and Director Torsten Bell’s twitter thread here. (Bell notes that ‘it’s not pretty’.) 
• Sunak’s defence. Appearing before the Treasury Select Committee on Monday, Sunak defended the choices he had made in the Statement. He said that providing greater help to low income households would have required more borrowing, which would not have been responsible. His priority in the future would be further tax cuts, not public spending. 
• More to come? The Times reported that the Chancellor is already considering another council tax rebate in the autumn following the criticism that he had misjudged the public mood and scale of the crisis.

‍

Inflation and living standards. Published alongside the Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2022 forecasts that inflation will rise to 8.7% by the end of the year. It has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2022-23 from 6% to 3.8%. (The Outlook’s Executive Summary is here, and brief Overview here.) 

• Living standards. Even after the tax cuts announced by the Chancellor, this will lead to an average 2.2% fall in real household disposable incomes this year: the largest fall in living standards in any single year since records began 66 years ago. 
• Earnings. The OBR forecasts that real average earnings will not now return to 2008 levels even by 2027 (the end of the OBR’s forecasting period). 
• A return to the 1970s? While the Governor of the Bank of England noted that this year’s current energy price increase was greater than in any year in the 1970s, IPPR’s George Dibb pointed out that in the 1970s, trade union membership was 50% of the employed population, while today trade union membership is only around a quarter of all employees. So workers will not be able to bargain for wage increases matching the rising cost of living. As inflation hits perhaps 10%, ‘we are heading for a true crisis - if not a catastrophe.’ 

‍

The uprating of benefits and pensions. Much of the analysis of the Spring Statement focused on an announcement the Chancellor did not mention. By uprating benefits and pensions from April by only 3.1%, the rate of inflation last September, rather than the 7-9% rate which inflation will actually be over the next year, Sunak has made around 19 million people in the lowest income households - those dependent on benefits and the state pension - on average around £450 poorer. Coupled with the removal of the £20 a week uplift to Universal Credit in November, this is a hit of nearly £1500 a year, or more than 10% of total income, to many of the poorest households. By early 2023, benefits will in real terms be 9% lower than they were before the pandemic. 

• The impact on poverty. Analysing the combined impact of the benefits uprating and National Insurance changes (the rate of NI has been increased, while the earnings threshold at which it starts to be paid has been raised), the Joseph Rowntree Foundation calculated that 600,000 people will be pushed below the poverty line this year, a quarter of them children. The Resolution Foundation’s calculation is that in total 1.3 million people are set to fall into absolute poverty next year, including 500,000 children – the first time Britain has seen such a rise outside of recessions.
• Living income. NEF calculated that the Spring Statement would leave more than a third of the UK population, 23.5 million people, below the ‘minimum income standard’, based on needs, which is used to calculate the ‘real living wage’. This includes nearly half (48%) of all children. 
• The cost of uprating. The Resolution Foundation noted that increasing benefits and pensions by 8.1% this year would have cost the Chancellor £9bn. He spent £8.4bn instead on the 5p per litre cut in fuel duty (£2.4bn) and the 1p cut in the basic rate of income tax in 2024 (£6bn). He provided an additional £0.5bn to local authorities to support vulnerable households. 
• Pensioners. Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, examined the severe impact of inflation on poorer pensioners. ‘As in the 1970s, pensioners could see a lifetime of careful saving wiped out.’

‍

Tax changes. The Chancellor’s decision to raise National Insurance contributions (the ‘health and social care levy’) by 1.25% while promising a 1p cut income tax in 2024 was heavily criticised. While Sunak’s political intent was widely noted, the Resolution Foundation’s Adam Corlett pointed out that the combined effect of the income tax and NI changes represented ‘a transfer from poor to rich, leaving most people worse off.’

• Rentier bias.  The IFS’s Paul Johnson noted that cutting income tax whilst raising NI contributions ‘drives a further wedge between taxation of unearned income and earned income. Yet again [this] benefits pensioners and those living off rents at expense of workers.’ Former Treasury Permanent Secretary Nick Macpherson posted a short thread on the history of taxes on earned and unearned income in Britain since 1906 to provide a timeline of policy decisions that have privileged rentiers and capital owners over workers.‍
• The distributional impact. The Resolution Foundation has created some example case studies to show how the combined package of measures introduced by the Chancellor affects low-earning households differently. ‍
• An income tax cut? By freezing the basic and higher rate income tax and NI thresholds at a time of inflation, the Chancellor is bringing more earners into these taxes, and they will pay more on their income. The effect, as the Resolution Foundation pointed out, is that in 2024-25, when the income tax cut comes into effect, seven out of eight workers will pay more income tax and NI than today. ‍
• The total tax share. The OBR forecast that the share of taxes in national income will rise to 36% of GDP in 2026-27, an increase of 3.3% since 2019-20. This is the highest tax share since the late 1940s. It is still considerably less, however, than the European average of around 41%. 

‍

Borrowing and debt. The OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook calculates that public borrowing is set to fall by 60% from last year, when it was £322bn (15% of GDP), to £128bn (5.4% of GDP) this year. The OBR forecasts that public borrowing will continue to fall over the next few years, reaching a little over 1% of GDP (£31.6 billion) in 2026-27. This would be the smallest budget deficit for 25 years. Public sector net debt (including the Bank of England) is forecast to fall from this year to 83.1% of GDP by 2026-27, as required by the Chancellor’s fiscal rules.

• Public spending. Public spending is due to decline over the next five years as a share of GDP, to 41.1% in 2026-27. This is however 2.1% of GDP higher than in 2019-20 and the highest sustained level since the late 1970s. Most of its upward revision reflects inflation-driven revisions to welfare spending and debt interest spending.
• Debt interest payments. Debt interest payments as a percentage of tax revenue show a sharp spike (to 7.6%) this year as a result of the revaluation of index-linked debt, but fall back to a historically low average of 3.4% over the following three years (not briefed and not reported).‍
• £10bn left under the current fiscal rules. With this level of borrowing and strong forecast tax receipts, along with a change to the student loan system, the OBR calculates that Sunak has left himself with £20bn of 'fiscal headroom' in 2024-25. He has used half of that (£10bn) in the tax cuts announced in the Spring Statement. So he has £10bn of fiscal headroom left for further tax reductions.

P&O Ferries. Ferry company P&O has come under fire for sacking 800 members of staff by video. Staff were told that they would be made redundant with immediate effect after the company had lost £100 million a year for the past two years. The workers will be replaced, with some of the new staff reportedly being paid £1.80 per hour. This makes this a controversial ‘fire and rehire’ case in which workers are made redundant and then either given worse contracts to do the same job, or replaced by cheaper alternative labour.

• Legality. York St John University’s Ernestine Gheyoh Ndzi explains how P&O may have ‘ignored the legal procedure of redundancy’ by failing to consult with staff and the relevant trade union prior to making the decision. The FT further explores the legality of the mass sacking, highlighting that, as well as engaging in consultations, companies sacking more than 100 people must notify the government at least 45 days before dismissals begin. (According to a leaked memo, Department for Transport civil servants were told about the plans only a day before the announcement.) Though some have questioned whether the workers were protected by UK law, the international maritime trade union Nautilus insisted that they were, since it was the jurisdiction specified in their contracts. 
• Grayling loophole? P&O Ferries may have stayed within the law thanks to an amendment made by former minister Chris Grayling. In 2018, he signed off a change in legislation meaning that companies do not have to notify the government of redundancies on ships registered overseas. 
• RMT response. The RMT, which represents P&O workers, has been organising protests, with General Secretary Mick Lynch labelling the move ‘an example of gangster capitalism’. The union has called on the Prime Minister to meet with a delegation of sacked workers and has advised its members not to sign severance packages while it considers legal action. 
• DP World. P&O Ferries was bought by DP World 16 years ago; the parent company is owned by the royal family of the United Arab Emirates. The company has apparently rejected an invitation to meet with a delegation of union leaders. 
• Pensions. Following calls from Labour Party politicians in January, the Pensions Regulator is investigating claims that P&O Ferries has not paid a £146 million debt it owes to the Merchant Navy Ratings Pension Fund. In the same month, it was reported that owners spent £147 million on a golf contest prize.

‍

Government response. The Government gave P&O Ferries a deadline (22nd March) to respond to ten questions about the redundancies and has said it will review its links with the firm. Maritime Minister Robert Courts called the redundancies ‘unacceptable’. 

• Criticism. Labour’s Louise Haigh criticised the Government for failing to ‘lift a finger’ when it was notified of the sackings the day before staff were informed, accusing the Chancellor of being ‘too cosy’ with the company. She noted that, despite P&O Ferries making over 1,000 staff redundant two years ago, Rishi Sunak gave his approval to DP World’s investment in two of the UK’s largest shipping terminals, Thames Gateway and Southampton. 
• Freeports. Thames Gateway and Southampton have both been awarded ‘freeport’ status by the Chancellor, making them exempt from the usual taxes and economic regulations. General Secretary of the TUC Frances O’Grady urged the Government to halt any plans to award freeport status to any DP World ports. 
• Commons vote. In a Commons debate called by Labour, MPs voted in favour of a motion condemning P&O Ferries and calling for ‘fire and rehire’ practices to be outlawed. No MPs voted against, but government ministers and many Conservative MPs abstained.  

‍

Fire and rehire elsewhere. Though P&O’s strategy has been to fire employees in order to hire foreign workers on much cheaper wages, the Covid-19 pandemic has seen a rise in companies firing staff only to rehire them on worse contracts. This has become widespread in recent years, according to research conducted by the TUC, with nearly 1 in 10 workers having been told to re-apply for their jobs on worse terms and conditions or face the sack.  The House of Commons Library has provided a useful explainer on the practice and its status in employment law. 

• British Gas. The most publicised case last year was in British Gas, which fired 300-400 of its staff and then offered them worse contract terms to be re-employed. The GMB called a 12-day strike after winning 89% support in a ballot of workers. 
• Other companies. Other major companies using fire and rehire tactics in recent years have included the Go Ahead Group and Compass. The Observer found last year that nearly 70 per cent of the companies using ‘fire and rehire’ were making a profit, and half were using government support throughout the pandemic. 
• Government defence. When asked in Parliament in 2020 about ‘fire and rehire’, (sometimes known as ‘dismiss and re-engage’), BEIS minister Paul Scully appeared to defend the practice, stating that companies need ‘flexibility to offer new terms and conditions’.
• Public opinion. A survey by the GMB union in May 2021 found that three-quarters of the UK public backed the banning of ‘fire and rehire’ including 71% of Conservative voters. 

‍

Employment rights. The TUC has called on the government to introduce an Employment Bill which would: end fire and rehire style practices and stop companies firing at will; increase penalties on companies that break employment law; and ban other forms of exploitative practices, including zero-hours contracts and bogus self- employment under so-called ‘umbrella companies’. 

• The Government’s Employment Bill. Calls for an Employment Bill come after the Government’s continuing failure to bring forward a bill first announced in the 2019 Queen’s Speech. The bill was intended to include the right for workers to request more predictable contracts and more rights for unpaid carers and pregnant employees. People Management’s Sarah Ozanne outlines where the bill has got to so far. 
• The Employment and Trade Union Rights (Dismissal and Re-engagement) Bill. Labour MP Barry Gardiner introduced a Private Member’s Bill last year specifically outlawing fire and rehire practices. Gardiner’s bill (which the MP explains here) would require companies to properly consult with employees before any major restructure. However, the bill was voted down, with minister Paul Scully saying that he did not believe that primary legislation was needed. The Institute for Employment Rights offered their analysis here. ‍
• The impact of Brexit. While the practice of fire and rehire is not illegal under EU law (though it is banned in some EU countries, including Ireland and Spain), the issue has reopened the question of the impact of Brexit on employment rights. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed by the EU and UK in December 2020 includes the key ‘level playing field’ principle that neither the UK or EU countries can lower standards on workers’ rights, with an enforcement mechanism if either side should seek to do so. The TUC has examined the implications.

The deepening cost of living crisis. Chancellor Rishi Sunak is facing growing pressure to help low-income households as the war in Ukraine pushes energy and food prices even higher. Food campaigner Jack Monroe and NGO experts described what the cost of living crisis means in practice to a House of Commons Select Committee last week: read journalist Nadine Batchelor-Hunt’s summary here.  

• Inflation and living standards. The Resolution Foundation’s Living Standards Outlook forecasts inflation rising to 8% or higher, with the price cap on annual energy bills likely to rise by another £900 in October. Its preview of the Chancellor’s Spring Statement next week forecasts a £1000 fall in average real household disposable incomes over the next financial year - ‘the sharpest squeeze since the 1970s’. NEF analysis finds that over 23 million people (34% of the population and 48% of children) will be living below an acceptable ‘Minimum Income Standard’ by April. (Twitter thread summaries here, here and here, respectively). 
• Reasons to act. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that the rise in energy prices which has occurred since the beginning of the war in Ukraine will reduce real household incomes by around £43bn in total, meaning that the Chancellor’s £9bn support package announced last month will only offset around 20% of the rise in household energy bills. Money Saving Expert’s Martin Lewis warned that the cost of living crisis is not simply due to the war in Ukraine and urged the Chancellor to prevent ‘millions of people’ falling into poverty. Former Treasury Economist Jeevun Sandher noted that the Chancellor had already made the cost of living crisis more severe by failing to extend the £20 uplift to Universal Credit and underinvesting in energy efficiency policies which could reduce household bills. 

‍

Benefits uprating. Social security benefits are uprated annually in April in line with the prevailing inflation rate the previous October. This means that social security payments (including pensions) will rise by only 3.1% next month despite inflation now likely to reach 7% or more. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) calculates that this will pull another 400,000 people into poverty. Around 9 million people on means-tested benefits and the state pensions will experience a £500 real cut in their annual income, with some families seeing a cut of £720. JRF is calling on the Chancellor to uprate benefits and pensions by at least 7%.  

• Consensus? Calls for the Chancellor to increase benefits and pensions by more than the planned 3.1% have been made across the political spectrum. Writing in Conservative Home, former minister David Gauke proposed larger increases in Universal Credit, the state pension and public sector pay than previously planned. The IFS’s Paul Johnson also advocated increasing benefits in The Times.

‍

Stagnating incomes. The IFS noted that higher inflation will wipe out ‘at least a quarter’ of the real terms increases to public service spending announced in the autumn Budget and Spending Review. It calculated that, if this is not reflected in higher public sector pay awards, the average public sector worker would see their gross salary reduced by around £1,750 in real terms, coming on top of over a decade of stagnating pay.

• Sectoral collective bargaining to boost pay. The TUC’s Statement ahead of the Spring Statement argues that public sector pay and the national minimum wage should be increased in line with current inflation. It argues that the Government must also ‘recognise that collective bargaining is the most sustainable way to boost pay, and use the long-promised employment bill to give trade unions new powers to negotiate fair pay agreements across sectors.’ 

‍

Reforming the welfare system. In a new working paper Oxford University’s Fran Bennett and Jane Millar look at the problems created by the design of Universal Credit. They argue that the integration and automation of UC ‘has created a juggernaut of mass means testing’, which is difficult to reform. (Blog post explainer here.)

• Guaranteed Decent Income. The Commission on Social Security (whose Commissioners are all ‘experts by experience’ with lived experience of the benefits system) proposes the replacement of Universal Credit with a Guaranteed Decent Income paid to anyone whose earnings drop below £163.50 a week (half the minimum wage). The proposal was developed in collaboration with benefit recipients including carers, the unemployed and people living with disability. 
• A living income for all. NEF’s Social Security for All programme takes what it argues are the best elements of a minimum income guarantee (targeted) and universal basic income (simplicity) to propose a Weekly National Allowance. This would replace the income tax personal allowance with a weekly payment of £47.30 to all citizens except the highest earners. ‘This would effectively reinvest billions spent on a regressive system of personal tax allowances into a redistributive approach to ensuring that everyone has a basic level of income’. NEF also proposes an auto-enrolment system for reformed Universal Credit so people can receive top-ups to their income whenever it drops below a minimum level, to avoid issues with eligibility, take-up and administration costs.

The IPCC Working Group II report. The latest instalment of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released on February 28, focused on climate impacts, risks and adaptation. A Summary for Policymakers was also published, along with the slides presented at the launch and some FAQs. The report’s conclusion is stark: ‘Any further delay in global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all’. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the report as ‘an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership’. 

• The IPCC. The IPCC brings together almost all the world’s climate scientists, and its reports are approved by 195 national governments, giving it a unique global political authority. IPCC Working Group I focuses on the physical effects of climate change (its latest report was released last year: see our Digest ‘Code Red for Humanity’ for analysis). Working Group II (this report) details the social, political and economic factors that determine who will be exposed to its effects (impacts, adaptation and vulnerability). Working Group III (the latest report of which will be released later this year) details climate mitigation measures. 
• The Working Group II report. More than 3000 pages long, the report includes 7 chapters on the principal types of climate impact (such as oceans, food, cities and health), 7 chapters on the likely impacts in each of the world’s continents, 7 dealing with different kinds of habitat and landscape areas (such as deserts, polar regions and ‘biodiversity hotspots’) and 3 synthesis chapters on the integration of adaptation and mitigation measures. Read Carbon Brief’s in depth Q&A on the report and its contents. See here for a useful summary thread by climate writer Leo Barasi. 

‍

Key findings. The report’s key findings (‘headline statements’) include: 

• Climate change has already caused ‘substantial damages and increasingly irreversible losses, in terrestrial, freshwater and coastal and open ocean marine ecosystems’.
• Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people already ‘live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change’.
• Approximately 50-75% of the global population could be exposed to periods of ‘life-threatening climatic conditions’ due to extreme heat and humidity by 2100.
• Where climate change impacts intersect with areas of high vulnerability, it is ‘contributing to humanitarian crises’ and ‘increasingly driving displacement in all regions, with small island states disproportionately affected’.
• Increasing weather and climate extreme events ‘have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity and reduced water security’, with the most significant impacts seen in parts of Africa, Asia, Central and South America, small islands and the Arctic.
• Climate change ‘will increasingly put pressure on food production and access, especially in vulnerable regions, undermining food security and nutrition’.
• Climate change and extreme weather events ‘will significantly increase ill health and premature deaths from the near- to long-term’.
• It is likely that the proportion of all terrestrial and freshwater species ‘at very high risk of extinction’ will reach 9% (maximum 14%) at a global average temperature rise of 1.5C. This rises to 10% (18%) at 2C and 12% (29%) at 3C.

‍

Climate justice. Chapter 8 of the report deals with the societal consequences of climate change, assessing impacts through the lens of poverty, livelihoods and vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined by the report as ‘the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected’, and encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including ‘sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt’ to climate-related hazards. As Politico noted in its coverage, there is a much stronger focus on climate justice in the report than in previous ones. It emphasises the unequal impact of climate change, with those on low incomes, both in the world as a whole, and in individual countries, being much more vulnerable than others. Environmentalist Ayisha Siddiqa noted that this is the first time that the IPCC has acknowledged ‘historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism’ in the vulnerability of people in the global South. 

• Food supply. The WGII report notes that the climate crisis poses an acute threat to global food supply, with severe consequences for global hunger and security. Climate campaigner Ben See analyses the report’s evidence. 

• Climate resilient development. The report emphasises the need for ‘climate resilient development’, which it defines as a ‘solutions framework’ that ‘combines strategies to adapt to climate change with actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to support sustainable development for everyone’. The International Institute for Environment and Development explains the concept further. 

‍

Climate politics. The WGII report highlights the need both for stronger and faster action to reduce emissions and for greater resources and effort to be put into adaptation, particularly in the most vulnerable countries. Damian Carrington analysed the political implications of the report in the Guardian: ‘This climate crisis report asks: what is at stake? In short, everything.’

• Loss and damage. The US reportedly pushed to water down the report’s Summary for Policymakers during February’s meeting for national delegates to approve the report. Critics argued that this was an attempt to avoid pressure to set up a ‘Loss and Damage Finance Facility’ at COP27 later this year to provide greater international finance for poorer countries. 

• Climate misinformation. Desmog noted that the WGII report for the first time addresses the tactics of climate delayers and misinformation campaigns to polarise public support for climate action. In the Guardian climate journalist Amy Westervelt points to fossil fuel companies’ involvement in the IPCC as a reason why the report fails to make the link between ‘maladaptation’ and misinformation.

• UK adaptation. A lead author of the IPCC report says that the UK is particularly ill-prepared for climate change. The report confirms the Climate Change Committee’s report last year on the UK’s vulnerability and inadequate adaptation efforts.

• Lifestyle changes. An academic research study has found that if people in wealthy countries made six key changes to their consumption patterns, emissions could be dramatically reduced. The research was published alongside a new campaign, ‘The Jump’, which asks people to sign up to six lifestyle pledges that it claims are ‘clear, constructive, impactful, doable’. They include flying no more than once every three years and buying no more than three new items of clothing per year. 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and energy prices. European natural gas prices increased by almost 70% following the Russian invasion of Ukraine last week. Some industry analysts have forecast that average household energy bills could exceed £3000 a year when OfGem’s energy price cap is reviewed again in October. The average prices of petrol and diesel are already now above £1.50 a litre, compared with around £1.10 two years ago. 

• Context. Following the dramatic rise in global gas prices over recent months, on 3 February OfGem increased the energy price cap, allowing firms to pass higher wholesale costs onto consumers. Average household bills are set to increase from £1277 to £1971 in April. The government simultaneously announced an ‘Energy Bills Rebate scheme’ to partially offset higher bills. The government may come under pressure to increase the scale of its support measures if wholesale energy costs remain higher than previously forecast as a result of current events. For more analysis read our previous Digest. 
• Analysis. Carbon Brief has collated a comprehensive Q&A on the implications of the invasion of Ukraine for energy and climate change, while the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies analyses the likely impacts on the UK. 

UK energy security and oil and gas. The invasion of Ukraine has prompted renewed debate about the UK’s energy security. Climate sceptic lobby group Net Zero Watch issued a press release calling for further exploration in the North Sea and removing the ban on fracking to “substitute for Britain’s rapidly rising imports which are increasingly dependent on Russia’s European gas flows”. 29 Conservative MPs and former Brexit minister Lord Frost had earlier signed a letter calling for the return of fracking in the UK. 

• Government response. Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng responded in a Twitter thread. Noting that the UK imports very little Russian gas (it makes up only around 4% of UK gas supplies) he noted that gas prices are set by the global market, so an increase in domestic production, whether from the North Sea or fracking, would not reduce UK energy bills. Renewables are cheaper than gas, he pointed out, and ‘the best way to keep energy bills down is through energy efficiency upgrades’ to reduce the demand for gas. 
• Domestic production won’t help UK energy security. ECIU’s Richard Black explained why, with around 80% of North Sea output exported, greater UK production of oil and gas would not reduce prices or increase domestic supply. Tessa Khan of climate campaign group Uplift explained why new North Sea licences do not add to UK energy security. In its report on the prospects for fracking, the National Audit Office concluded that shale gas production would not be expected to lead to lower energy prices.‍
• New North Sea oil and gas licences. The government has proposed that new licences for the production of oil and gas in the North Sea should be allowed so long as they pass a “climate compatibility checkpoint” in line with the UK’s goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. The Climate Change Committee responded that it would ’support a tighter limit on production, with stringent tests and a presumption against exploration’. Carbon Brief pointed out that 46 oil and gas projects have already obtained licences so would not be subject to the checkpoint under its proposed design. (Map here.) ‍
• The case against new North Sea licences. Green Alliance has published a new report explaining why it is not economic to extract more oil and gas from the North Sea ‘given the need to act on climate change and the unstoppable rise of clean technologies’. The report shows how tax relief for UK oil and gas exploration is skewing the market in favour of opening new fields for extraction, presenting a risk of stranded assets and a high cost burden for taxpayers and investors. Watch this report by Channel 4 News on how North Sea companies, including BP and Shell, have been net recipients of taxpayers’ money over the last five years. ‍
• 1.5C and new fossil fuels. Last year in a landmark report the International Energy Agency noted that if global heating was to be limited to the Paris Agreement’s goal of no more than 1.5C, no new investments in extracting fossil fuels could be allowed. The entire carbon budget for 1.5C was already embodied in currently exploited global sources. 

Integrating climate, energy and national security. For many commentators the invasion of Ukraine has reinforced the case for a clean energy transition. Drawing the connections between energy, climate and national security, BusinessGreen’s James Murray explained why ‘petrostates’ such as Russia feel squeezed by global climate agreements, and ‘the threat clean technologies pose to the revenue streams that keep them in power’. In a New Statesman essay last year economic historian Adam Tooze made the wider case. 

• Weaning Europe off Russian gas. With 40% of the EU’s gas supplies coming from Russia, there have been renewed calls to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources and reduce demand through energy efficiency measures. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis argued that ‘the EU needs to redefine energy security not as diversity of gas infrastructure, but as a true diversity of energy sources that are immune to political influence and can lessen the risk of future energy crises.’ Michaela Holl and Jan Rosenow explain in brief. 
• Germany’s energy security. The decision of the German government to halt certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline linking the Russian Baltic coast to Germany marked a significant shift in Germany’s energy relationship with Russia. The pipeline, already completed, was designed to reduce German dependence on the existing pipeline running through Ukraine and Poland. At the same time Germany was reported to be accelerating its commitment to generate 100% of its electricity from renewable sources to 2035. 
• Green energy security in the UK. E3G have calculated that a national retrofit drive to improve household energy efficiency could reduce UK gas imports by 26% and save households £500 per year. The Energy Efficiency Infrastructure Group (EEIG) estimates that 7 million homes need to be renovated by 2025, requiring an energy efficiency subsidy of £3.6bn is needed in 2022-25 to get on track for net zero. For more resources on housing energy efficiency retrofits see ECIU’s briefing on home insulation and gas prices and NEF’s campaign for a Great Homes Upgrade.‍
• The onshore wind moratorium. Former BEIS civil servant Tim Lord took the opportunity to calculate that the extra gas the UK uses each year as a result of the ban on new onshore wind since 2015 is more than it imports from Russia.

Economic sanctions against Russia. As Western nations unveil economic sanctions against Russia following its military incursions into Ukraine, attention has focused on the extent of Russian assets in the UK and the scale of ‘economic crime’ occurring through the UK financial system. The UK government will use legislation tabled earlier this month targeting potential sanctions at anyone ‘being involved in the support of the Russian government’, including businesses of economic or strategic significance to Russia.

• ‘Russian gold’. There has long been disquiet about the extent to which business people with ties to the Kremlin (often described as ‘oligarchs’) have used the UK economy and UK-based institutions as a safe haven for their assets. In 2018 the Foreign Affairs Select Committee report Moscow’s Gold: Russian Corruption in the UK criticised the Government for its ‘disjointed approach’ to the issue, arguing that ‘President Putin’s allies have been able to exploit gaps in the sanctions and anti-money laundering regimes that allow them to hide and launder assets in London.’ Disturbed at the lack of government action, the Committee decided last month to reopen its enquiry. 
• ‘The UK’s kleptocracy problem’. In December Chatham House published detailed research on ‘the laundering of money and reputations’ by elites from Russia and the post-Soviet successor states. Noting that much of the wealth leaving Russia had effectively been stolen from the Russian people after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 and the privatisation of industry which followed, the report argues that ‘failures of enforcement and implementation of the law – plus the exploitation of loopholes by professional enablers – have meant that little has been done in practice to prevent kleptocratic wealth and political agendas from entering Britain.’ Watch this Chatham House webinar on the problem and what can be done about it. 

Russian property in the UK. Last week Transparency International published new research showing that UK property worth £1.5 billion has been bought since 2016 by Russians accused of corruption or links to the Kremlin. Nearly half of these properties are in the City of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. Explaining the UK’s role as a ‘laundromat’ for suspicious Russian wealth, the report notes that over half of the property assets by value is held by companies registered in Britain’s Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies, where secrecy rules enable ownership to be hidden. (See BBC Newsnight’s report.) 

• ‘Golden visas’. The Home Secretary, Priti Patel, last week abolished the ‘Tier 1 investment visa’ which allowed wealthy foreign investors to ‘buy’ UK residency in return for investment in the UK economy. The scheme had been widely criticised for giving residency to around 700 Russian millionaires among others. NGO Spotlight on Corruption explained how the system worked. 

The UK economy and ‘dirty money’. Russian assets in the UK are part of a wider issue of global ‘dirty money’ flowing through the UK. In its major report At Your Service, leading anti-corruption NGO Transparency International has detailed how UK businesses and institutions ‘help corrupt individuals and regimes launder their money and reputations.’ The report is based on data collected from over 400 cases of corruption and money laundering in which UK service providers were involved. These cases involved at least £325 billion worth of funds diverted by rigged procurement, bribery, embezzlement and the unlawful acquisition of state assets in 116 countries across the world. 

• The role of the City of London. Author Nicholas Shaxson explains how the City of London has become the ‘money laundering capital of the world’. 
• Inadequate enforcement. Citing the National Crime Agency’s estimate that corruption, bribery, money laundering and fraud cost the UK economy around £290bn a year (equivalent to 14.5% of GDP), Spotlight on Corruption has called the UK’s law enforcement efforts in this field ‘under-resourced, over-stretched, and out-gunned’. Its report sets out a range of proposals to tackle economic crime effectively. 

The Economic Crime Bill.  The Government has pledged an Economic Crime Bill to tackle money laundering, fraud and corruption in the UK economy. After appearing to drop plans for the Bill the Government has confirmed that it will be brought forward soon. (Twitter thread explainer from the Centre for Public Data here.) Lawyers BCLP explain the Bill’s expected measures. 

• The Economic Crime Plan. The basis for the proposed Bill will be the government’s 2019 Economic Crime Plan, which set out a range of goals and programmes to tackle the problem. The House of Commons Library explains the extent of the issue and the Government’s proposals. The Royal United Services Institute publishes an online tracker to monitor progress on implementing the plan. 
• Making property and company ownership transparent. Key demands of reformers include the creation of a register of overseas entities that own UK property, and reform of Companies House to ensure it can monitor, verify, and investigate suspicious companies. 
• Labour’s proposals. These measures are both included in the Labour Party’s four-point package of measures to tackle economic crime, announced last year and reiterated by Keir Starmer this week. 
• Scotland Limited Partnerships. A particular target for campaigners is the use of legal partnerships registered in Scottish as vehicles for money laundering. Ben Cowdock of Transparency International explains. 

Political donations. Last month, a number of MPs tabled amendments to the Elections Bill to outlaw political donations made from secret offshore locations. The Conservative Party has been accused of accepting major donations from Russian sources in recent years. 

Not just the UK. A Guardian investigation this week reveals details of a leak from one of the world’s largest private banks, Credit Suisse, exposing ‘the hidden wealth of clients involved in torture, drug trafficking, money laundering, corruption and other serious crimes'. The leak raises questions about Swiss banking secrecy laws which prevent the disclosure of client banking information to foreign authorities. 

• Offshore secrecy. The Guardian’s disclosure of the ‘Pandora Papers’ last year reported the biggest ever leak of offshore data, revealing the secret deals and assets of more than 100 billionaires, 30 world leaders and 300 public officials. 

Financial Services Future Regulatory Framework Review. HM Treasury has closed its consultation on the post-Brexit Future Regulatory Framework for the UK financial sector. The outcomes of the review will inform a Financial Services Bill expected later this year.

• #FinanceForOurFuture. Last week, 37 civil society organisations published a joint statement expressing their concerns about the Treasury’s proposals. They made six recommendations aimed at strengthening financial regulation in the fields of climate change, social inclusion, competitiveness, oversight and the registration of lobbyists. The Finance Innovation Lab’s Marloes Nicholls summarised their response to the government’s proposals in a video interview with Sky News.

The ‘competitiveness’ agenda. At the heart of the Government’s proposed new regulatory framework is a statutory objective for regulators to promote the ‘international competitiveness’ of the UK finance industry. Chaminda Jayanetti sets out the issue for OpenDemocracy. 

• Weakening standards. The civil society coalition statement argues that requiring regulators to promote the growth and international competitiveness of the UK financial sector would undermine their ability to act in the public interest, putting them in a dangerous competition with regulators in other countries to weaken standards. As FIL’s Marloes Nicholls explains, this requirement was explicitly removed from the regulatory framework in 2012 after it was recognised that it had contributed to the financial crisis of 2008. Helen Thomas in the FT concurs. 
• Regulators’ dissent. Both Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, and Nikhil Rathi, head of the Financial Conduct Authority, have publicly opposed a competitiveness objective for regulators. As Bailey said, recalling the financial crisis: when this was last required “it didn’t end well, for anyone”.

A statutory net zero goal? The Government’s proposals seek to strengthen the regulatory oversight of the financial sector’s climate impacts. But environmental NGOs and others argue that this does not go far enough, urging new statutory objectives obliging regulators to steer the financial system towards the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

• City of London finances fossil fuels. Research by Greenpeace UK and WWF UK found that the emissions caused by the fossil fuel investments of UK banks, asset managers and other financial institutions are nearly double the annual carbon emissions of the UK. 
• Climate risks still not being reported. Auditors at major companies are supposed to integrate climate risks into their financial statements. But in a study of company reports and shareholder votes, Greenpeace finds that companies and their shareholders claiming to be committed to net zero are producing and waving through  reports which fail to disclose their climate risks. 
• Green central banking. The international Green Central Banking network provides a range of resources on efforts to align central banks with environmental principles. 

Financialisation and the ‘finance curse’. The wider background to the Government’s financial reform proposals is the increasing size and impact of the financial sector since its deregulation in the 1980s. The concept of ‘financialisation’ has been used to describe the increasing size of the financial sector relative to the rest of the economy and the increasing use of financial metrics in companies and in society The Transnational Institute explains the concept and history of financialisation and explores its impacts. 

• The ‘finance curse’. In a report for the IPPR Commission on Economic Justice, Grace Blakeley showed how financialisation has damaged UK manufacturing and exporting sectors by pushing up the value of sterling, fuelling inequality and contributing to a model of economic growth overly dependent on both capital inflows and house price inflation. In a report for SPERI, political economist Andrew Baker and colleagues sought to explain this ‘finance curse’ and to measure its extent. Arguing that the financial sector competes with the rest of the economy for resources and that credit booms damage research and development-intensive firms, a paper by the Bank of International Settlements shows how financial sector growth ‘crowds out’ growth in the rest of the economy. 

Innovative thinking about financial regulation. FIL’s ‘Transforming Finance’ project produces a range of resources on how to repurpose the financial system to meet social and environmental as well as economic goals.

12 missions by 2030. The government unveiled its Levelling Up White Paper last week, promising ‘to transform the UK by spreading opportunity and prosperity to all parts of it’.  The paper is centred around 12 quantified ‘missions': ‘cross-government, cross-society efforts’ to be achieved by 2030. Ambitions include raising pay and productivity in every region, narrowing the gap in Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) between areas, and bringing the standard of local public transport connectivity across the country ‘significantly closer’ to that of London. (The full list of missions is here.) 

• On missions. The IPPR’s George Dibb wrote a useful thread on the value of missions in policy-making. Though some have criticised 2030 targets which the present government will not be around to see, he argues that it is ‘vital’ that targets outlive ministers. UCL’s Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP) summarises the case in ‘Missions: A Beginner’s Guide’. It has been particularly influential, on this government and others, in developing the idea of mission-oriented approach to investment and innovation. 
• New Labour influence? The Resolution Foundation’s Torsten Bell notes that the White Paper’s quantified goals and metrics are similar to those adopted by the Blair Government to achieve greater accountability for spending and policy.
• Conservative criticism. Writing for Conservative Home, co-author of the 2019 Conservative manifesto Rachel Wolf argued that few governments departments have committed to new policies, and the overall strategy is ‘far from uniform’. 
• An alternative approach. In advance of the White Paper the New Economics Foundation called for five major shifts in economic policy to achieve the government’s stated levelling up goals: a shift from central direction to local control; a shift from growth to living standards; a shift in focus on the every day economy; a shift to backing SMEs and a ‘shift to green’. (Full report here.)
• The market-led model. Analysing the White Paper in the Guardian, Christine Berry noted its focus on attracting inward investment by private capital in a ‘virtuous circle of agglomeration’. Although the White Paper acknowledges the failures of the market-led growth model, it ‘fails to pursue this reasoning to its logical conclusion, and is thus left trying to solve these problems using the same thinking that created them in the first place.’

Funding. A principal criticism of the White Paper has been the inadequate level of funding attached to its ambitious goals, and in particular the relatively small amounts of new funding announced. The New Statesman’s Anoosh Chakelian breaks down the sources of funds that Secretary of State Michael Gove has ‘begged, borrowed and stolen’ from other schemes. 

• Austerity context. Drawing on Institute for Government and IPPR North analysis, the FT’s Jim Pickard pointed out that funding to towns has been cut by £15 billion in the last decade. While the “levelling-up fund” will provide £32/head for people in northern England. the fall in annual local council service spending since 2010 in northern England is £413/head. 
• Far from enough. Former Director of the Royal Society of Arts Matthew Taylor noted the similarity between the Levelling Up White Paper and last year’s report of the government’s Industrial Strategy Council (a body which it then abolished). He pointed out that the scale of funding announced falls far short of that which has been provided to disadvantaged areas in France and Germany.
• How much would be enough? A number of commentators have compared the scale of funding allocated with the investment in ’levelling up’ post-unification Germany (nearly £2 trillion). Even this has not been enough, however, as Katja Hoyer observed in the Spectator: ‘despite all the spending, East Germans still feel left behind’. 

Devolution. The White Paper promised ‘the largest devolution of power from Whitehall to local leaders across England in modern times’, including new powers for metropolitan mayors, and new county devolution deals across England. It sets out a ‘menu of options’ through which local authorities can effectively opt for one of three types of devolution. Jack Shaw of Cambridge University’s Bennett Institute explains.

• Not far enough. IPPR North’s Arianna Giovannini welcomed the White Paper’s commitment to further devolution to city mayors, but criticised the continuing use of competitive bidding to access funds, and argued the government must truly let go of power to reduce inequalities. NEF’s Miatta Fahnbulleh warns that levelling up ‘simply won’t happen’ if devolution is ad hoc. She argues that we need a radical transfer of power to all parts of the UK, not centrally-controlled schemes. 
• Government must work with local organisations. Power to Change welcomed the devolution plans but warned that the government needed to ‘work with organisations with experience of delivering at a local level’ to meet their targets. 
• Fiscal devolution. Level 3 of the White Paper’s devolution framework would enable local authorities (subject to a ballot) to ‘introduce a supplement on business rates’. The Data City’s Tom Forth notes that a similar supplement in London (introduced by former mayor Boris Johnson) raises around £300m per year. The Mayor of Tees Valley, Ben Houchen, called business rate devolution ‘low hanging fruit’ and said that, given the power, he would ‘slash business rates across the board’ in the hope of stimulating ‘massive private sector investment’. 

Community covenants. On the same day as publishing the white paper, the Government responded to Danny Kruger MP’s report on the role of civil society. It committed to the idea of ‘community covenants’: pilot schemes in which councils, local groups and public bodies will enter into agreements in order ‘to harness the energy, know-how and assets of local communities’. 

• ‘Community power’. The White Paper adopts the language of ‘community power’, a term growing in popularity in conservative circles. Writing for the ‘We’re Right Here’ community power campaign, Locality’s Ed Wallis calls for a Community Power Act with three central elements: decisions to be made at the ‘most local level possible’; a designated range of ‘power partners’ for organisations such as neighbourhood forums, and the creation of a Community Power Commissioner.
• Criticism. CLES have warned that the ‘community power’ approach risks becoming a route to cuts and says that the community should never be a replacement for the local or national state. Meanwhile the High Pay Centre’s Luke Hildyard noted that levelling up is ‘about not just productivity, but participation and power’. Writing in the Yorkshire Post, he argues that elected mayors must focus on delivering ​​’higher wages, trade union rights and recognition and worker representation on company boards’. 

People, not places? The Equality Trust argued that the Levelling Up White Paper fails ‘to put people at the centre’. By focusing so heavily on places, the paper does not address inequalities within regions, such as the high levels of child poverty and inequality in London. 

• Inequality within regions. NEF noted that levelling up should be as much about inequality within regions as between them: ‘the challenge of levelling up is as real in Barking & Dagenham or Hackney as it is in Barrow, Darlington, or Barnsley’. Likewise, Inside Housing’s Peter Apps wrote in the Spectator that ‘London suffers from some of the most pressing housing need in the country’ and argued for more ‘tangible reforms’, such as a target for reducing the number of children in temporary accommodation. 
• Good jobs. Janet Williamson of the TUC summarises the levelling up paper as a bid to expand the private sector in the hope of creating more jobs. However, she argues that the paper falls short of ensuring that those jobs are well paid and secure. The TUC’s recommendations include raising the minimum wage, tackling zero hour contracts and embedding ‘decent jobs’ with high employment standards within government procurement rules. 
• Social infrastructure. The Women’s Budget Group argued that the White Paper is too geared towards physical rather than social infrastructure. By failing to sufficiently acknowledge the role of adult and child care, it does not provide adequate explanation for how women in particular can access job opportunities. 

Housing. The Levelling Up White Paper included some new announcements on renters’ rights, such as bringing forward a ban on section 21 ‘no fault’ evictions and exploring the possibility of a National Landlord Register. Shelter called this a ‘crucial step forward’ but said that the Government needs to set out a plan for ‘significant investment in social housebuilding’. 

• Stability and affordability. The IPPR’s Luke Murphy highlights the need for further private rented sector (PRS) reform in order to provide tenants with more agency and control over their own home, such as limited rent increases and mandatory open-ended tenancies. 
• Brownfield development. The Campaign to Protect Rural England’s Paul Miner welcomed the commitment to brownfield development in the white paper, but warned that a lot of pressure will still be needed to make change happen, as ‘there are lots of people who are making quite a lot of money out of the current policies’. 

Net zero. The White Paper has been widely criticised for giving insufficient attention to the Government’s net zero ambitions. But the Conservative Environment Network’s Sam Hall argued that it demonstrates that levelling up and Net Zero are compatible, and that clean industries are critical for growth in industrial heartlands. 

New Government campaign to fill job vacancies. The Department for Work and Pensions’ ‘Way to Work’ campaign aims to get 500,000 more people to fill mounting job vacancies by the end of June by encouraging Universal Credit claimants to search for work in new ‘booming sectors’, such as social care and construction. DWP secretary Thérèse Coffey said: “As we emerge from Covid, we are going to tackle supply challenges and support the continued economic recovery by getting people into work. Our new approach will help claimants get back into the world of work quickly, while helping ensure that employers get the people they and the economy need.”

Sanctions-led approach. The mechanism by which unemployed people are encouraged to seek work is through the benefit sanctions system. Claimants will now only have 4 weeks (down from 3 months) to find a job within their preferred sector. If claimants fail to make “reasonable efforts” or turn down job offers from any sector, they risk reductions in their benefit payment. 

• Will this help recovery? A 2016 report from the National Audit Office found no evidence that benefit sanctions are an effective way of helping claimants find a job, while “the overall impact of sanctions on wider public spending is unknown.” A peer reviewed article from economist David Webster concludes that more attention needs to be paid to the flaws in the economic case for benefit conditionality in the UK welfare system. Associate Professor Jo Ingold examined employers’ perspectives on benefit conditionality in the UK and Denmark and concluded that businesses held negative views on conditionality as it led to them “receiving large numbers of unsuitable and unfiltered job applications, with associated negative resource impacts…which undermines their chances of securing employment”. 
• Threatening benefit cuts during a cost of living crisis. Critics have pointed to the punitive nature of the proposal to cut people’s benefits during a cost of living crisis. Food poverty campaigner Jack Monroe spoke to Times Radio to explain the new changes' impacts on benefit claimants during, pointing out that the 4 week limit is longer than it takes to receive the first benefit payment (5 weeks).
• Poverty in the UK. NEF’s Living Income campaign has shown that 32% of the UK population (21.4 million people) will be living below a needs-based ‘minimum income standard’ this year. Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s #UKPoverty2022 report outlines the latest data on the nature and scale of poverty in the UK. The report of the United Nations’ Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights (2019) examined the extent of poverty and destitution in the UK and condemned the “great misery… inflicted unnecessarily” on marginalised groups through Universal Credit and cuts to public services.

The UK labour market. Analysing the Government’s proposals, the FT’s Sarah O’Connor noted that “The reason the UK has a shortage of workers is not because jobseekers are too picky. It is because an army of people have left the labour market altogether.” The Way to Work programme targets those who are able to work but are either unemployed or on low wages. But the Institute for Employment Studies’ Tony Wilson points out that there are not large numbers of people who are short term unemployed: only about 130,000 jobseekers claim for less than three months. The much larger problem is a 600,000 increase in people who have dropped out of the labour market altogether, are no longer looking for work and therefore do not receive any support.

Low pay and in-work poverty. Critics of the Way to Work policy have pointed out that it does not address the numbers of those in low paid jobs who have to rely on the benefit system to top up their incomes. The IPPR’s No Longer Managing report on the rise of working poverty found the chance of two parents in work (one part time and one full time) being in poverty have doubled over the past two decades. The authors argue that social security reform must come alongside a wider plan to tackle the root causes of low pay, such as unaffordable rents, expensive childcare and insecure jobs (See ITV’s coverage). 

• Childcare. The Women’s Budget Group’s Hanna Abid explains why childcare investment should be a key element of social security reform (the ‘Social Guarantee’) as it enables caregivers to rejoin the workforce, amongst other benefits. (Peer reviewed evidence here.)
• Real wages. The wider context for low pay is that real earnings have been stagnant since 2008, are projected to remain so until 2026 and, with high inflation, are now falling. 
• Minimum wage. The TUC is calling for increases in the national minimum wage. An IFS report finds that raising the National Living Wage can have significant spillover impacts on workers earning above the minimum, raising their wages without significant reductions in employment. 
• Enforcement. Over 200 firms guilty of paying some workers below the minimum wage have recently been named and shamed, with the list including House of Fraser and Waterstones. 

Proposals for welfare reform. 

• Comprehensive income guarantees. NEF’s Social Security for All takes the best elements of a minimum income guarantee (targeted) and universal basic income (simplicity) and proposes a Weekly National Allowance to replace the personal allowance of income tax with a weekly payment of £47.30 to all but the highest earners: “This would effectively reinvest billions spent on a regressive system of personal tax allowances into a redistributive approach to ensuring that everyone has a basic level of income”. It also proposes an auto-enrollment system for everyone onto a reformed model of UC so people can receive top ups to their income whenever it drops below a minimum level, to avoid issues with eligibility, take-up and administration costs. See NEF’s Living Income Campaign for more proposals on social security reform. 
• User-led proposals for reform. The Commission on Social Security proposes replacing Universal Credit with a Guaranteed Decent Income paid to anyone whose earnings drop below £163.50 a week (half the minimum wage). The proposal was developed by people with lived experience of the current welfare system: carers, the unemployed and people living with disability. (Mirror coverage and video explainer)
• More resources. For more options for structural reform of social security see our previous digest on Welfare Innovation. Visit New Economy Brief’s Resource Bank section Improving Work and Welfare for more on What Covid-19 has revealed about our labour market and social security, The future of Universal Credit, and more.

Central bank digital currencies. The Bank of England and HM Treasury will launch a consultation this year into the possibility of introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the UK. A CBDC would allow households and firms to hold digital money directly with the Bank of England. The primary motivation behind the consultation is the risk that unregulated digital currencies pose to the financial system - particularly so-called “crypto-assets” such as Bitcoin, but also planned ‘stablecoins’ such as the Facebook-backed Diem (formerly called Libra). UCL’s Josh Ryan-Collins explains how a CBDC would work, and the benefits and risks. 

• Arguments for. Simon Youel of Positive Money has called for a UK CBDC, arguing that it would provide “universal access to a secure, digital form of public money”. Central bank reserves already exist digitally, but are only accessible to commercial banks, meaning that individuals are reliant on these banks to make digital payments. In a recent report on the issue Positive Money notes that a CBDC would address the decline of physical cash and increase financial inclusion. 
• Arguments against. The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee has also examined the subject, concluding that there is “no convincing case for why the UK needs a central bank digital currency (CBDC)”. In a survey of the various types of digital currency, including CBDCs, US economist Barry Eichengreen argues that it is not clear what problems they would solve that “can’t also be solved by suitably regulated private sector entities.” 
• Digital payments and economic justice. Rachel Statham, Lesley Rankin and Douglas Sloan evaluated digital payment systems and their effect upon the balance of economic power in a report for IPPR. They argue that the introduction of a CBDC “may offer a solution that gives consumers greater choice and control”. 
• Crypto-UBI? A CBDC could be the key to unlocking Universal Basic Income, argues Frances Coppola, the author of ‘The Case for People’s Quantitative Easing’. As the CBDC would be a ‘stablecoin’ pegged to the country’s official currency, it could be used to pay a UBI paid directly into citizens’ ‘digital wallets’, she argues. It could then be transferred to a personal bank account or used to pay for goods and services directly. Coppola suggests that UBI payments from the central bank could be varied to manage inflation. 
• Across the world. China is ramping up efforts to roll out a ‘digital yuan’ nationwide following trials in several major cities. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve launched a consultation into a possible US CBDC last week. The Atlantic Council has produced a map tracking the development of CBDCs across the world. 

Cryptocurrencies’ carbon footprint. Private cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, have been widely criticised for their climate impact. The creation or ‘mining’ of new Bitcoins requires complex computer calculations, making it a very energy-intensive process. Bitcoin’s energy consumption is tracked by both the Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index and the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index; the former estimates that its carbon footprint is now as large as Norway’s. Visual Capitalist has created several infographics comparing the carbon footprint of Bitcoin compared to gold - Bitcoin is 15 times more carbon intensive. ForexSuggest.com calculates that offsetting the carbon emissions of the top ten cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, would require the planting of around 385 million trees per year. 

• Could cryptocurrencies be greened? Jeremy Hildreth in the Spectator argues that, by using renewable electricity sources, Bitcoin “could in fact prove to be an environmental solution.” A new Crypto Climate Accord aimed at improving their carbon footprint has been established by the World Economic Forum and others, but as Gillian Tett argues in the FT, greening the new currencies is not straightforward. 
• Up for debate. A New York Times podcast discusses whether ‘crypto can go green’ with datascientist and founder of the Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index Alex de Vries, co-founder of the Tezos blockchain network Kathleen Breitman, and Paul Prager, founder of the ‘green’ Bitcoin mining company Terawulf. ‍
• Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is the second largest centre for cryptocurrency mining in the world; the recent unrest and internet blackout there led to the value of Bitcoin falling by 8%. Many ‘crypto miners’ have relocated to Kazakhstan en masse following the banning of cryptocurrency mining in China.

‍

Stablecoins. ‘Stablecoins’ are second generation cryptocurrencies, aimed at maintaining a stable value against official currencies; examples are Diem and Tether. Economist Barry Eichengreen explains how they work. 

• Geopolitics. Economists Luca Fantacci and Lucio Gobbi look at the potential geopolitical implications of stablecoins, arguing that such currencies could be used to circumvent economic sanctions and provide a challenge to the dominance of the US dollar in the international monetary system. For Coindesk, Tanvia Ratna argues that stablecoins could either ‘become a shadow of the existing system or a battleground of intense geopolitical currency wars’.‍

Inflation and house prices. In the quarter of a century since 1996, UK house prices have risen 161%: from around 4.5 times average household income then to around 8 times now. Despite being a major factor affecting real incomes and standards of living, house prices are not included in the Consumer Price Index, the standard indicator to measure inflation.

• House price inflation and inequality. Economist Gary Stevenson has produced an explainer video on house price inflation, its impact on the cost of living, and the wider economic implications if only certain sections of the population can afford to own their homes: “As ordinary families lose their properties and kids from richer families are able to buy them, inequality gets even worse, driving house prices up further still. This creates a worsening spiral which makes housing increasingly unaffordable to ordinary people”.
• Housing data. The Resolution Foundation publishes a dashboard of data about housing and living standards, updated quarterly alongside its Housing Outlook. 
  

‍

Home ownership and ‘generation rent’. House price inflation is linked to a sharp fall in home ownership, especially among young people and families with children. The Resolution Foundation’s report Hope to Buy analyses trends in home ownership among those aged under 35. Nationally, home ownership in this group fell from 51 per cent in 1989 to 28 per cent in 2019. In some regions the fall has been greater. 

• Locked out. The National Housing Federation’s assessment of housing in England finds that rising house prices and rents and an overall shortage of homes have left than 3.6m people living in overcrowded homes, 2.5m who can’t afford their rent or mortgage, and 2.5m adults living with parents, an ex-partner, or friends because they can’t afford a place of their own. 
• Intergenerational inequality. Nearly half of all housing wealth is now owned by those aged over 65, the FT reports. Political economist Keir Milburn explains in this short video the “political generation gap” between young and old, mediated by property ownership: “The material interests of older cohorts might be leading some of them to look away from the pressing crises of the present.” 
• Rent and class. Autonomy’s study on occupation, rent and class features interactive charts which unpack the relationship between occupation and housing status, particularly renting.
• Race inequality in housing. An article for Bloomberg illustrated the “ugly truth about the road to prosperity in the UK”, citing ONS data showing that the median black household has accumulated zero wealth through home ownership over the last decade, compared to £115,000 for the average white household. 

Stoking house price inflation? Over the last decade, and further since the onset of the pandemic, the Government has sought to incentivise home ownership by subsidising borrowing. At the same time, the Bank of England’s ‘quantitative easing’ programme (in which it buys government and corporate bonds to increase the flow of lending) has caused house prices, alongside other assets, to inflate. Positive Money’s Danisha Kazi explains why the “government-engineered housing boom will hold back the recovery” and increase inequality. The former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane described the UK housing market in 2021 as being “on fire”. 

‍

Meeting housing demand. To meet unmet housing demand an estimated 345,000 new homes are needed per year in England alone. The level of housebuilding has increased in recent years but is still far below this level. The UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence has examined the relationship between housing supply and prices, and what the impact on prices would be if more homes were built.

• The developer-led model. It is widely argued that a core reason why more homes are not built is the UK's ‘developer-led’ model of housebuilding. Private developers purchase land and use it only when it is most profitable and for homes largely aimed at better-off buyers. Manchester Business School’s Karel Williams explains how this has worked in Manchester. (Longer paper here.) 
• Affordable homes. A report from NEF finds that social and affordable housing is at risk of being squeezed out of new developments by developers worried about profit margins. 
• Sustainable housing. The Women’s Budget Group has published Rethinking Housing Supply and Design, a policy paper calling for green housing plans that reverse gender inequalities and enshrine sustainable housing as a right rather than a financial asset. Recommendations include returning land to local councils and community land trusts, including women in planning decisions, and ensuring housing design is responsive to the needs of carers and diverse households. 
• Public buy-outs? Researcher Joe Bilsborough proposes a public sector ‘buy out’ of properties in the private rented sector to rent them out as council homes.
  

‍

Controlling house prices and rents. Many economists argue that building homes, though important, will not control house prices or rents. The primary problem is on the demand side, where policy support for home ownership, along with the increasing use of housing as an asset (including the now major rent-to-buy market), have forced prices upwards. In their book Rethinking the Economics of Land and Housing, Josh Ryan-Collins, Toby Lloyd and Laurie Macfarlane explore the relationship between the financial system, housing and land: their argument is summarised in this review for the LSE Review of Books.

• House price inflation targeting by central banks. One policy solution, proposed by IPPR, would be for the Bank of England to have a house price inflation target (p27 of the report) in the same way that it has a general inflation target. This would require it to dampen house price demand when prices were rising, and to give guidance to the Government on how they could avoid stoking higher house prices. IPPR has set out the argument in terms of a wider analysis of the UK’s “broken land market”. The European Central Bank (ECB) last year announced a change to its core mandate of price stability to include climate change and housing costs.
• ‍Rent controls. Rent controls are a form of price control which are used in many cities across the world to prevent housing becoming unaffordable. Economist J W Mason explains how and when they work (for a wider survey of the evidence see this by the Economics Observatory). The Guardian reports on the use of rent controls in Berlin, and their recent defeat in a constitutional court. 
  

‍

‘Rentier capitalism’? Consistent house price inflation is one of the phenomena which have led the western economic model (particularly in the UK and US) to be described as ‘rentier capitalism’. By this is meant, economies dominated by a concentrated distribution of property ownership, where individuals and businesses with market power are able to extract ‘rents’, or unearned income. Recent books by Brett Christophers and Guy Standing, reviewed here and here, have set out the evidence and arguments. (Here is a short video explainer of the concept.) For a more detailed analysis, read Christine Berry’s series for Autonomy on the ‘landlord economy’: “an economic system built on rising asset prices (especially in housing), and a political system structurally favouring their owners”.

• Housing and financialisation. The New Economics Foundation explores the role of banks and the financial system, supported by government policies, in fuelling house price growth – with housing wealth now making up almost half of total household assets.
• Government policy. Researcher Joe Bilsborough explains in Tribune how “For decades, Britain's governments have designed public policy to benefit property owners and landlords to the detriment of everyone else.” 
• Covid policy. IPPR analysed the government’s emergency policies during the early stages of the pandemic and explained how they aligned with rentier interests. 

More resources. For more resources on housing market reform and the wider economics of land and housing, visit our Resource Bank page.

Living standards squeezed. The Resolution Foundation has dubbed 2022 as the “year of the squeeze”. It calculates that persistent inflation, including the predicted increase in the household energy price cap by over 50% and alongside the rise in National Insurance Contributions (NICs) - both of which come into effect in April - will reduce annual disposable incomes this year by an average of £1,200 per household.

• Cost of living pressures. NEF calculates that in the two years since the last election, the poorest half of UK households have become £110 per year worse off on average, whilst the richest 5% have gained £3,300 per year. The number of people living in relative poverty has risen by 300,000. Economist Jonathan Portes points out that real wages are now falling as inflation exceeds earnings growth. The IFS forecasts that real wages are expected to remain stagnant until 2026, a near 20 year stagnation of incomes since 2008. 
• Political consequences. The Guardian’s Aditya Chakrabortty argues that “the cost of living crisis is going to upend British politics in 2022”, calling it a “recipe for widespread deprivation and massive political turbulence. It also blows apart the electoral coalition that handed Johnson his landslide”. Aware that the energy price cap and NICs rise will arrive just before the local elections on 5th May, Conservative MPs are reported to be increasingly anxious. Leader of the House Jacob Rees-Mogg has urged the Chancellor to scrap the planned increase in NICs, while the Net Zero Scrutiny Group (NZSG) of Tory MPs and peers has called for the green levies funding renewable energy and energy efficiency and the 5% VAT on energy bills to be scrapped. (For more information on the Net Zero Scrutiny Group, see this analysis by the Grantham Research Institute’s Bob Ward.)  

Inflation driven by rising cost of energy. Age UK estimates that 150,000 older households are likely to fall into fuel poverty this winter because of soaring energy prices. National Energy Action have warned that fuel poverty could rise by 1.5 million to 6 million households, which would be the highest level since records began in 1996. They are campaigning to expand the Warm Home Discount scheme and Winter Fuel payments (and other proposals) to address fuel poverty.

• Monopoly power and the ‘Big 6’. The FT’s Chris Giles called for “another shake up” of the energy industry and its regulator Ofgem, explaining that “the chronic problem in UK retail energy markets is that bills are likely to remain high for some time after a failure of regulation to foster competition in the public interest.” The government has recently opened a policy consultation on the future of the energy retail market (call for evidence deadline January 16th). 
• Protecting the most vulnerable. National Energy Action’s Peter Smith calls for an expanded role for Ofgem to better identify financial vulnerability and provide deeper price protection for the most vulnerable through a mandatory “social tariff”. 
• Energy efficiency. The Conservative Environment Network (CEN) is urging ministers to reduce bills and emissions in the long term by ensuring the UK's homes are better insulated. The call is endorsed by the Energy Efficiency Infrastructure Group, an alliance of businesses and charities, in a letter to the Prime Minister. NEF’s Great Homes Upgrade campaign brings together a range of resources on household energy efficiency. 

Labour’s proposals. The Labour Party has proposed a windfall tax on the profits of North Sea oil and gas producers to fund measures to reduce household energy bills. Its measures would include removing VAT on energy for a year and spending an extra £3.5bn on the Warm Homes Discount, increasing it from £140 to £400 a year, while doubling the number of vulnerable households eligible to 9.3 million. It would also remove from bills the cost of transferring consumers of failed companies. Labour calculates that its plan would save most households about £200, while targeted support to low earners, pensioners and the “squeezed middle” would save them £600. Ed Miliband's op-Ed for the Guardian outlined Labour's proposals and criticised the government for failing to regulate the energy market over the last decade.

Can price controls tackle inflation? Political economist Isabella Weber argues that strategic price controls are an option for tackling inflation when it is being driven by increase in the price of specific goods such as energy. Price controls would avoid the risk of causing a recession, unlike conventional inflation control policies such as raising interest rates and fiscal constraint. “Price controls would buy time to deal with bottlenecks that will continue as long as the pandemic prevails. Strategic price controls could also contribute to the monetary stability needed to mobilize public investments towards economic resilience, climate change mitigation and carbon-neutrality.” Weber’s article sparked a sharp response on Twitter (since deleted) from the Keynesian Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman, which in turn provoked a strong defence by fellow economists Stephanie Kelton and James Galbraith. Noah Smith outlined the argument against price controls to fight inflation on his blog.

• Price controls in US history. The Roosevelt Institute’s J.W. Mason and Lauren Melodia identify price controls as a useful tool for controlling inflation in periods of economic recovery. The Harvard Law Review has published a useful note on the legal history and economic theory of price controls, arguing that “price controls, whatever their merits as policy, represent an unusually direct challenge to neoliberalism’s central economic and political premises”.  
• UK price controls. Positive Money’s Simon Youel explored the value of price controls to ease the drivers of UK inflation in specific goods: “Dealing with inflation isn’t a costless exercise, but price controls put the burden on corporate profiteers rather than ordinary workers and households.” 
• The energy price cap. Ofgem’s energy price cap is a form of price control. It limits the unit rate which suppliers can charge consumers for their energy bills in their ‘default’ or basic tariffs. It is revised annually to take account of wholesale energy costs. Ofgem sets out how it works. 

Scottish budget. The Scottish government published its 2022-23 budget last week: the first SNP-Green budget since the coalition was formed in August. Deputy First Minister John Swinney MSP called the budget a ‘bold package to tackle child poverty, address climate change and support economic recovery’. However, despite having the biggest pot of money available for a Scottish budget in 20 years, Nicola Sturgeon admitted that some announcements were ‘tough choices’, given the likely pressures on Scottish finances over the next few years.

• Key announcements. Scottish Child Payment was doubled to £20 per week, an additional £18 billion was provided for health and social care (including £1.2 billion for mental health) and the council tax freeze was scrapped.
• Green influence? The top line on climate was that the budget contained £2 billion in low-carbon spending. Environmental measures included £53 million to ‘protect and restore’ nature, including the 1 in 9 species in Scotland that are threatened with extinction, and £150 million for ‘walking, wheeling and cycling infrastructure’. The New Statesman’s Chris Deerin argued that the influence of the Scottish Greens was ‘visible’, but not particularly radical.
• Social care minimum wage. The Scottish government raised the minimum wage for social care workers to £10.50, having implemented a £10.02 wage floor for workers in October (the national minimum wage in the UK will rise to £9.50 in April). Labour and the Liberal Democrats said the 48p rise in pay for social care workers was insufficient. 
• Tax rises? Scottish income tax remains unchanged, with starter and basic rates increasing in line with inflation and higher rates frozen at current levels meaning that more people will enter the higher tax band. Councils will also be given complete autonomy to set council tax rates from next year, drawing criticism from opposition parties who fear this will ‘hit people in the pocket’.
• Women. The Scottish Women's Budget Group have provided an in-depth analysis of the budget. They welcome measures such as the increase in Scottish Child Benefit but argue that investment in social care needs to go further.

Community wealth building. Scotland is the first national government to adopt an explicit community wealth building approach in the UK. Its states this  central to its plans for a ‘wellbeing economy’. CLES has more detail here. The ‘Higgins report’, which analysed Scotland’s economic prospects in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, also highlighted the need for community wealth building. 

• Wales. The Welsh Government centres community wealth building in its procurement strategy. This involves ensuring that opportunities for local suppliers are embedded in tenders put out by public service boards and key local institutions. 
• North Ayrshire. In 2020, North Ayrshire became the first council in Scotland formally to adopt a strategy of community wealth building. Rethinking Poverty has explored the North Ayrshire model here.
• Community right to buy. CLES advocates a ‘community right to buy’ for local assets, not merely a ‘community right to bid’ for services model, citing Scotland as an example of good practice. As part of this, communities in Scotland can apply to register an interest in land and have an opportunity to buy it when it comes up for sale.
  
  

Just transition. The Scottish budget mentioned a ‘just transition’ 20 times, including a reminder of Scotland’s £500 million Just Transition Fund primarily aimed at supporting oil and gas workers in the north east and Moray region. In 2018, the Scottish Government set up a Just Transition Commission. However, environmentalists and trade unionists have said that the commission’s recommendations are too often ignored. 

• Renewables manufacturing. The New Economics Foundation have published a paper suggesting ways in which the Scottish Government can deliver its bold ambitions through investment in renewables manufacturing.
• Wales. The Welsh TUC have set out a five-point plan for a just transition to net zero. The Wales Centre for Public Policy also explores ways to achieve a just transition in Wales.

Universal Basic Income. A proposed trial for Universal Basic Income (UBI) in Wales has been described as ‘one of the most eye-catching Welsh government proposals of recent times’.  Welsh Future Generations Commissioner, Sophie Howe, said that UBI would cut poverty in half. Autonomy finds that UBI could cut child poverty by 64% and pensioner poverty by 61%.

• Care leavers. Welsh first Minister Mark Drakeford has suggested that a trial could focus on young people leaving care. However Stephen Crabb, Conservative MP for Preseli Prembrokeshire, said that proposals to trial UBI on care leavers miss the point of universality. Contributor of the IWA's publication, The Welsh Agenda, Dr John Ball also says that UBI trials will fail if they are not truly universal.
• Public backing. 69% of the public support trialing UBI in Wales and 67% support the Welsh Government increasing taxes on the very rich, according to a poll conducted by Autonomy.
• Northern Ireland. Belfast City Council have approved funding for a study looking into the practicalities of a local UBI trial. The DUP has voiced opposition to UBI and the study will not be funded by Stormont.

Deregulation after Brexit. The idea that the UK could flourish outside the EU as a low-tax, low-regulation, high-growth state is one which drove many Eurosceptics in the decades preceding the Brexit referendum, and has characterised the debates on the right that have taken place since about the extent of regulatory alignment the UK should have with the EU. Proponents of this view, including Lord Frost, Boris Johnson’s chief negotiator, were determined that the UK’s negotiations with the EU should avoid commitments that would limit the ability of the UK to compete on regulatory standards or on tax levels. They argued that the EU’s bargaining position was driven by fear of being out-competed by a newly unshackled UK. 

• New push. A new paper from the Adam Smith Institute attempts to give definition to this argument, calling for the UK to become a ‘Singapore-on-Thames’. It argues that the UK should adopt a range of free market policies, such as cutting taxes and regulations, to make the economy more efficient. But the bulk of the report proposes greater marketisation and competition in key public services such as healthcare and education, in order to reap the rewards of higher growth and better outcomes. The author Bryan Cheang does acknowledge that there are significant political and cultural differences between the two countries.
• Scunthorpe? Writing in the Telegraph, City economist Roger Bootle welcomes the new push from the ASI, heralding it as an antidote to the current trajectory of tax rises and state expenditure, which he says puts the UK more on a trajectory of Scunthorpe than Singapore.
• ‍Divergence tracker. UK in a Changing Europe publishes an updated ‘UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker’ to identify how Brexit is being implemented in this field. 

Impossible and undesirable? While the goal of transforming the UK into a deregulated haven off the coast of Europe has animated some, there are plenty who have argued that this is neither possible nor desirable. Writing at the height of the Brexit debates, former FT journalist Jeevan Vasagar argued that the vision of Singapore held up by UK free-marketeers did not represent the reality of the city state. 

• Delusion. The Financial Times’ chief economic commentator Martin Wolf concluded that it is unrealistic to expect that the UK could ever approximate the Singapore economic model. Wolf highlights the extraordinary level of personal savings enabled by Singapore’s Central Provident Fund, which compels employers and workers to contribute 37% of their income for social insurance, health and pensions. This is the key to understanding the country’s apparently low level of public spending.
• Race to the bottom. Labour economist Charles Woolfson argues that Singapore-style regulation is often code for a ‘race to the bottom’, particularly in relation to labour standards and the welfare system.
• Business view. Businesses do not necessarily welcome an attempt to out-compete the EU on low taxes and deregulation. UK business leaders warned during the Brexit process that they opposed regulatory divergence, even if it also brought lower tax rates. They warned that regulatory divergence would adds to costs, introduce frictions in labour markets and supply chains and raises prices. The Tony Blair Institute has explored a middle ground.
• Singapore: an entrepreneurial state? The Institute of Government’s Jill Rutter argues that the wrong model is being learned from Singapore. It is the city-state’s belief in state-supported business innovation which marks it out: more Mariana Mazzucato than Adam Smith.‍

‍‍

The Government’s deregulatory agenda. It is not clear how far the Singapore-on-Thames model seriously informs government thinking about the UK’s economic future, particularly given the impact of the Covid pandemic, which has delayed and derailed many of its policy objectives. However there are some areas where a deregulatory agenda is being pursued. 

• Freeports. The government is committed to opening 8 new freeports across the UK, giving businesses locating in them gain tax and planning benefits. However the policy has been delayed amid rumours that the Treasury are sceptical about the economics. This is a point that has long been made by tax justice campaigners, who argue that these zones simply relocate economic activity and allow the wealthy to avoid taxes.
• Financial sector competitiveness. The Chancellor has announced his commitment to improve the ‘competitiveness’ of the financial sector through deregulation. But this agenda carries significant risks, including risky de-regulation and the possibility of regulatory capture, according to Marloes Nicholls from the Finance Innovation Lab. The Lab’s ‘Transforming Finance’ project produces a range of resources both on the Government’s proposals and the alternatives. 

New variant. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has classified the new Omicron Covid-19 variant as a ‘variant of concern’ due in part to its ‘unprecedented’ number of spike mutations, which gives it the potential to escape protection against immunity induced by vaccines and previous infections.  

• South Africa and travel bans. South Africa has invested heavily in genomic sequencing, which is why scientists in the country were able to spot the new Omicron variant so swiftly. This also means that it should be easier to create updated vaccines if needed. However, the reaction of many countries (including the UK) has been to introduce travel bans from South Africa and neighbouring countries. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa criticised this, saying it would impose heavy costs on the country and would discourage those who find such mutations from sharing their findings with the rest of the world. 

Global vaccination. Gordon Brown has renewed his criticism of rich countries for hoarding vaccine supplies when vaccination rates in the global South remain low. “The failure to put vaccines into the arms of people in the developing world is now coming back to haunt us.”  With enough vaccines (2 billion a month) now being manufactured to vaccinate the whole world, the problem is one of distribution. In June, the G7 countries promised to donate their surplus vaccines to the global South. Brown set out “the arithmetic of failure”: the US has so far delivered only 25% of the vaccines it promised, the European Union 19%, the UK just 11%. The UK threw away 600,000 vaccines in the summer which had passed their expiry date. 

• Vaccination rates. In the lowest income countries, double-vaccination rates are as low as 3%. The New York Times publishes an updated vaccination tracker. 
• Pandemic treaty. The WHO is meeting this week to discuss the proposals for a ‘pandemic treaty’ to ensure stronger coordination of national responses and greater and more urgent support to countries in need. Despite previously pushing back on calls for such a treaty to be legally binding, the US and several other countries seem to have entered the new discussions with a more open mind. ‍
• Intellectual property. The new variant has prompted renewed calls to waive intellectual property (IP) protections on Covid-19 vaccines, to enable them to be cheaply mass produced throughout the world. With the World Trade Organisation meeting next week, President Biden has renewed his call for vaccine IP protections to be waived. Global Justice Now has published a useful policy brief on the issue.  

Vaccine sell-off. The UK’s Advanced Vaccines Manufacturing and Innovation Centre has been instrumental in ramping up vaccine production. Last month science minister George Freeman MP boasted about the £215 million investment in it provided by the UK Government. This week - just as details of the new variant were emerging - the Financial Times revealed that the Government is now going to sell it to the private sector. The decision attracted much criticism on Twitter. 

The new normal? With vaccines not yet widely available globally and as new variants continue to develop, the Progressive Economy Forum’s James Meadway explored how the economy may adapt to a more permanent presence of Covid-19.  Capitalism’s command of labour is changing, as pandemic diseases and public health measures change the location and patterns of work. On the other side of the political spectrum, Kate Andrews in the Spectator agreed. 

• Short-time working. The TUC argues that the Government should introduce a permanent short-time work scheme for future periods of economic turbulence, drawing on the success of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. 23 countries in the OECD had similar schemes in place before the pandemic. 

Sick pay and income support. With cases of the new variant set to grow in number over the coming weeks, questions have already been raised over whether those who cannot work due to self-isolation will be properly supported. 

• Living sick pay? Pandemic restrictions over the last two years have drawn attention to the issue of statutory sick pay (SSP) reform. The Fabian Society suggested several potential reforms earlier this year. The TUC, which commissioned the research, call for SSP to match the Real Living Wage.
• Equalities. Calls for sick pay to match the Real Living Wage were also backed by a report on the impacts of Covid-19 on paid and unpaid work, by the Women’s Budget Group, the University of Nottingham and the University of Warwick. The report found that the largest economic burden of the pandemic has been experienced by working class women. 
  

North of England rail investment plans. The Government released its Integrated Rail Plan for the North and Midlands last week, a proposal for £96bn in rail spending covering HS2, Northern Powerhouse Rail and Midlands Rail Hub. However previously announced plans for the first two were significantly cut (Guardian summary here), with the eastern leg of HS2, formerly due to go to Leeds and Sheffield, now to terminate in the East Midlands; and the Leeds-Manchester high speed line (via Bradford) abandoned altogether. The Government justified the cuts by saying that the new plans would enable more local services to be upgraded, with the benefits arriving sooner. 

• Criticism. The plan was criticised by Northern mayors in an open letter to the Prime Minister, describing it as “contrary to your ambition to ‘level-up’ the North” and running the risk of “holding back our regional economies and compromising our plans to cut carbon emissions.” Tony Danker, director of the CBI, said that Northern businesses were “upset” and “bruised” by the decision. 
• Political pressure. Jake Berry MP, chair of the Conservative Party’s Northern Research Group, reminded the Prime Minister of his 2019 Manifesto Commitment to deliver Northern Powerhouse Rail in last week’s PMQs. At the same time a campaign led by newspapers and media organisations based in the North of England called for greater investment in inter-city lines to and across the North, including a demand to deliver Northern Powerhouse Rail in full. 

The missing money. The Northern Powerhouse Partnership calculates that the overall saving from downgrading the pledges on HS2 and NPR is £14 billion. Watch ITV’s Anushka Asthana explain the Northern Powerhouse Partnership’s analysis of the cuts.

• The North-South investment gap. IPPR North’s Marcus Johns and Arianna Giovannini calculate that between 2009-10 and 2019-20 the North received £349 per person in transport spending, compared to £864 per person in London, the equivalent of £86bn of lost investment. This would be enough to fund Transport for the North’s 30-year £70bn transport investment plan, which it is estimated could create 850,000 jobs. Onward’s dataset showing how many jobs are reachable by car and public transport reveals “a shocking transport gap between North and South”. 
• The wider context. CLES’s Tom Lloyd Goodwin examines the problems of the rail franchise system and why alternative ownership models can strengthen local economies. Common Wealth explains in a briefing why reshaping the ownership and an operation of bus networks would help build more vibrant local economies and thriving high streets. For more on levelling up and regional inequality see our previous Digest. 

Sunak’s investment cap. The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush blamed “Rishi Sunak’s self-imposed straitjacket on infrastructure spending” for the cuts, with the Chancellor in his Budget capping investment spending at 3% of GDP. The Independent reported that the Integrated Rail Plan “became a battleground to control spending by Rishi Sunak’s Treasury”. But Tim Pitt, former advisor to two Conservative Chancellors, argued that “Treasury hawkishness” was not to blame. He emphasised other constraints on investment spending, such as supply constraints and value for money. 

• A bad fiscal rule? James Meadway argues that the 3% investment cap should be scrapped to prevent future economic damage to the North and to the government’s net zero strategy. Oxford economist Simon Wren-Lewis agreed that the rule unnecessarily constrains good public investment projects.
• Reforming fiscal rules. NEF argues that the government’s fiscal rules should be replaced by a new framework. They propose a Fiscal Policy Committee (FPC) housed at the Office for Budget Responsibility or other third-party institution, appointed by government and parliament and guided by a set of ‘fiscal principles’. The FPC’s mandate would be based on resource constraints, full capacity utilisation, the private sector balance sheet position, and public sector net worth. NEF’s Frank van Lerven summarised the report in a Twitter thread. For a broader look at how fiscal rules have developed over time and how they might be reformed, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has published an e-book on Designing a New Fiscal Framework, written with former ministers, central bankers and civil servants.  

The Glasgow Climate Pact. COP26 closed late on Saturday with the adoption of the ‘Glasgow Climate Pact’ by the 197 parties (196 countries and the EU) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The full text of the main Pact is here. 

• Main elements. Carbon Brief have written a comprehensive analysis of the Glasgow Pact and other COP26 decisions and announcements. New Economy Brief Managing Editor Michael Jacobs summarised the main elements of the Pact in a Twitter thread. 
• Reaction. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a sober welcome for the agreement. “Our fragile planet is hanging by a thread. We are still knocking on the door of climate catastrophe. It is time to go into emergency mode — or our chance of reaching net zero will itself be zero.” Edie collated reactions from civil society organisations including Greenpeace, WWF, the Corporate Leaders Group and C40. ECIU’s Sepi Golzari-Munro tweeted a short evaluation of the deal and European Climate Foundation head Laurence Tubiana set out priorities for COP27, which will take place in Egypt in November 2022.

Mitigation and returning in 2022. On emissions reduction (‘mitigation’), the agreement acknowledges that current national commitments are insufficient to put the world on a pathway to limiting global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. It instructs countries to come back in 2022 with strengthened commitments for 2030, in line with the “well below 2C” and ideally 1.5C goals set out in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. The planet is already 1.2C warmer: NASA’s Earth Observatory explains what rising average global temperature means. 

• Commitments and projected temperature rises. Almost all major countries had already announced their commitments ('nationally determined contributions' or NDCs) before COP26, so they were not going to revise them at the conference. In that sense requiring countries to come back with stronger commitments next year is the most COP26 could realistically have done. Climate Action Tracker’s analysis shows that the 2030 commitments will lead to around 2.4C of warming. If longer-range ‘net zero’ targets were met, warming could be limited to 1.8C, but these pledges are not backed by credible policy. Climate Resource’s NDC factsheets tell you more than you need to know about all 192 NDCs so far submitted, and the temperature increases to which they might lead. (Twitter thread explainer here)
• What happens next? There is no guarantee that countries will come back in 2022 with sufficiently strong commitments to meet the 1.5C limit. In practice this will depend on domestic political pressures in every major emitting country - both for and against greater ambition. BusinessGreen’s James Murray argues that the agreement “creates a moment every year when governments will face intense public and geopolitical pressure to strengthen their decarbonisation plans”. In the UK, NEON’s recent polling shows that the UK public supports strong domestic climate action.  
• Do international agreements make any difference? Climate writer David Voltz explains what a global climate treaty can and can’t do: “COP agreements can't make anyone do anything or punish anyone for failure...The action is in domestic national politics.” In an analysis of the Glasgow outcome, Michael Jacobs explains how climate agreements since Copenhagen in 2009 have forced countries to act simultaneously, contributing to the creation of global markets in green technologies which have resulted in much lower costs, enabling stronger action.
• Sectoral agreements. COP26 saw a number of sectoral agreements signed between groups of countries and the private sector, notably on deforestation, methane, transport, coal, green technology and finance. Carbon Brief explains. If fully implemented, Climate Action Tracker estimates that they could close the emissions gap to a 1.5C path by 9%. (See last week’s digest for more analysis of these.)

Fossil fuels. The Glasgow Climate Pact calls for “accelerating efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.” No dates for this are given, but Greenpeace and others hailed the first ever mention of reducing fossil fuels in a COP document as a signal that “the era of coal is ending.” International lawyer Harro van Asselt explains why the text is significant even if it is weaker than hoped. 

• Coal. Coal-fired power stations remain the bedrock of electricity production in many countries, particularly those with their own coal reserves. In many countries new power generation comes mostly or exclusively from renewables (wind and solar), and old coal-fired power is being phased out. But as the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air explains, the expansion of largely new (and more efficient) coal in China offsets declines elsewhere. The reference to “unabated” coal in the text means that coal plants fitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology are exempt from the phase down. CCS can reduce emissions by around 80%, but is costly and still rarely used.  
• Fossil fuel subsidies. The reference to “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies mirrors the language adopted in recent G20 communiques, which has provided a get-out clause for almost all countries. Some countries (such as India) defend consumer subsidies, since they make energy cheaper for the poor (though also for the rich). The IMF calculates that, globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8 percent of global GDP. Around 8% of this reflects explicit subsidies (undercharging for supply costs); 92% reflects estimates for the undercharging of environmental costs, tax breaks and foregone consumption taxes like VAT (implicit subsidies). The Guardian explains. The Overseas Development Institute has a complete run-down of fossil fuel subsidies in G20 countries and progress towards phasing out. 
• Just transition. The Glasgow Pact recognises “the need for support towards a just transition”. The concept of a just transition - invented by the trade union movement - expresses the importance of supporting workers and communities adversely affected by green policies (such as those in fossil fuel and high carbon sectors). The International Trade Union Confederation’s Just Transition Centre provides a wealth of resources on the idea. Read IPPR’s plan for a managed transition for oil and gas in Scotland and the UK. 
• Oil and gas. The Glasgow Pact makes no mention of oil and gas, defended in the negotiations by the major producers including the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Nevertheless, taking the sectoral agreements into account as well, Oil Change International welcomed the historical significance of progress on phasing out fossil fuels. Global Justice Now’s response criticised the failure to look at how the global trade system reinforces the fossil fuel economy in arrangements such as the Energy Charter Treaty. The Treaty allows fossil fuel companies to be compensated for low-carbon policies introduced by governments: the IEA estimates it could cost the global economy as much as $100tn for lost revenue and stranded assets. (Watch Common Wealth’s explainer on how Investor-State Dispute Mechanisms enable fossil fuel companies to sue governments for climate action.)
• India and ‘watering down’. Much attention has focused on India’s role in watering down the final text from “phasing out” coal to “phasing down”. In fact it was India and China who both sought the change. ActionAid’s Brandon Wu argues that it is unfair to blame India: the problem is lack of global equity in phasing out fossil fuels in general. Wu references the Civil Society Review on a globally just fossil fuel phaseout which shows what fair shares of climate action would be, and how and why countries should phase out fossil fuels on different timelines. 
• Global fair shares. Global Justice Now’s Dorothy Guerrero explains why the choice to ‘phase down’ coal rather than oil and gas allows richer countries to escape their historical obligations. For Common Wealth, Harpreet Kaur Paul has analysed the responsibilities role of the global North due to its historic and present role in the climate crisis. Referencing Oxfam’s briefing note on per capita consumption emissions, economic anthropologist Jason Hickel explains that the emissions of the richest 10% of the global population will use up the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C, “totally irrespective of what the rest of the world does”.

Climate finance. ‘Climate finance’ refers to money provided in different forms from advanced economies to countries in the global South. (The FT explains here.) Developed countries pledged in Copenhagen in 2009 and again in the Paris Agreement that they would mobilise public and private funding of $100bn a year by 2020. They failed to hit this target (providing $80bn in 2019) but say they expect to hit it in 2023. As the Jubilee Debt Campaign noted, over 70% of this finance has been in the form of loans, not grants, which add to the debt burdens of lower income countries. 

• Total finance flows. In Glasgow developed countries resisted the demand that they make up the shortfall since 2020 by providing more in 2024 and 2025. The text sticks at $100bn a year, and sets up a new process to define how much they should pay after 2025. ‍
• Finance for adaptation. For many years poorer countries have expressed anger that around 75% of climate finance has gone to mitigation efforts, such as renewable energy, rather than on adaptation to help them cope with the climate change they are already experiencing. The recent UN Environment Programme report on financing for adaptation estimates that the costs for vulnerable countries to adapt to global warming are up to ten times higher than available funding. In the Glasgow Pact the vulnerable countries achieved their demand that developed countries should “at least double” funds for adaptation. ‍
• The overall finance package. The Glasgow Pact calls on the World Bank and other multilateral development banks to improve access to climate finance for climate-vulnerable countries, which can be penalised by their (in some cases) higher GDP per capita and perceived high-risk investment conditions. Senior COP26 adviser Amal-Lee Amin argues that COP26 has made progress. Citing the new financing and reform agreement between South Africa and several developed economies to help South Africa transition away from coal, COP26 “provides a solid foundation for a comprehensive new climate finance framework post-2025”.
  ‍
  

Loss and damage. In UN climate negotiations 'loss and damage' is the term used to describe the principle that rich countries should compensate poor ones for the climate costs their historical emissions have caused. For many countries in the global South this is central to climate justice. Developed countries have always resisted it; they fear it is the slippery slope to being held liable in international courts for trillions of dollars in damages. In Glasgow the vulnerable countries wanted a new financing facility to be set up for loss and damage. This was not agreed: there is to be merely a ‘dialogue' to discuss 'arrangements'. Power Shift Africa’s Mohamed Adow expressed the widespread anger at this: “The needs of the world's vulnerable people have been sacrificed on the altar of the rich world's selfishness.” Developing countries vowed to return to this at COP27 next year. 

Carbon markets. 'Carbon markets' in climate change agreements allow rich countries to buy 'offsets' (such as tree planting) to avoid the cost of reducing emissions themselves. Such markets have been controversial since first being allowed under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement defined them further and COP26 was meant to finalise the rules. The Glasgow Pact closes some loopholes over double-counting, and sets somewhat stronger standards for environmental integrity and protection for indigenous peoples. But there is only partial cancellation of credits left over from the old Kyoto Protocol (which many people think should simply be retired), and only a partial cap on new ones. A 5% levy to go to adaptation will cover only some trades. With two different trading systems created it is feared the weaker one will predominate. Clean Energy Wire explains what has been agreed. Carbon Markets Watch criticises it.  

And the rest. Beyond the issues mentioned above, COP26 completed the ‘Paris Rulebook’ of detailed rules to implement the Paris Agreement, such as on the transparency of national actions and measurement. This will allow for full implementation of the treaty. Some other notable developments were on:

• Special Drawing Rights. One of the most interesting developments at COP26 arose from the powerful speech (watch it here) made by the Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley in the Leaders’ Summit. She called for the IMF to issue annual tranches of SDRs, the global reserve currency, to finance climate-compatible development in the most vulnerable countries. Some of the SDRs issued this year in the light of the Covid pandemic are already meant to be reallocated for development (but have not yet been). Mottley’s adviser Avinash Persaud explains the new proposal.‍
• Countering greenwash. There was widespread concern in the run-up to COP26, and at it, that various companies are claiming to be committed to achieving net zero emissions but are in fact using dubious measurement and large-scale use of offsetting. (The Guardian’s Damian Carrington explains.) At COP26 the UN Secretary General announced that he was setting up an Expert Group “to propose clear standards to measure and analyse net zero commitments from non-state actors.” This was widely welcomed.

Side agreements. The first week at COP26 was dominated by a series of ‘side agreements’ choreographed by the UK Presidency. These are not formally part of the talks, but attempts to drive forward ambition in the real economy. Some observers have been pleasantly surprised by the number of countries involved in some of these and the funding committed to them. Others have warned however that many are weaker than the government has claimed. There has been a lot of criticism in particular of some of the business and financial ‘net zero’ announcements.

The ‘end of coal in sight’? Last Wednesday the UK’s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy issued a press release stating that “190 countries and organisations” had pledged to phase out coal. With countries pledging to end the use of coal-fired power stations, and both countries and banks promising to end their financing of new coal projects, the release said that “the end of coal is in sight.” 

• Missing signatories. But the statement was not all it seemed. The AFP’s Patrick Galey dug into the story to investigate who had signed up and to what (Twitter thread here.) It turned out that the new pledge had only 77 (not 190) signatories; of the 46 countries, most had already committed to phasing out coal. Of the 23 countries that made new commitments, only 13 actually use coal.  The 13 do account for 13% of coal output globally, with major users such as South Korea and Vietnam now signed up; this is definitely progress. But most of the world’s largest coal users (including China) did not. Fiona Harvey of the Guardian unpacks the Government’s spin. 

Ending deforestation by 2030? Presented as COP26’s first major deal on Monday, the UK announced an “unprecedented” plan to end (and then reverse) deforestation and land degradation by 2030. Signed by 110 countries (covering around 85% of global forests, and including Brazil, Indonesia, China, Russia and the Democratic Republic of Congo), the agreement included almost £14bn of public and private funds to restore damaged land, tackle wildfires and support indigenous communities.

• You didn’t hear it here first. Observers pointed to a remarkably similar pledge, the New York Declaration on Forests, made in 2014, which had 187 signatories and also committed to end deforestation by 2030. There has been little news of or accountability for what has happened since. To ensure the new pledge is more successful, the World Resources Institute's Rod Taylor said that “governments must implement a step-change in transparency to include full disclosure of forest and land permits and the origins of commodities”. There needs to be more support for smaller farmers to adopt more sustainable practices, and deforestation-free agriculture needs to be embedded in trade agreements.
• Decarbonising food supply chains. 28 countries and a number of companies also committed to remove deforestation from agricultural supply chains of palm oil, cocoa and soya. Consumer demand in the UK for these high-carbon commodities has been estimated to require an area 88% of the size of the UK to produce. IPPR’s previous report on building a sustainable food system proposed policies to eliminate imported deforestation from UK food supply chains.

Methane methods. US President Joe Biden and EU President Ursua von der Leyen announced that 90 countries had agreed to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. Methane, produced especially from agriculture, landfill and oil and gas, is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, so if implemented this would be significant. Climate physicist Piers Forster analysed the likely impact. 

Fixing farming? 45 countries (or possibly 28) have committed to changing their agricultural policies to become more sustainable and less polluting, and to invest in the science needed for sustainable agriculture and the protection of food supplies against climate change. 95 major companies from a range of sectors committed at the same time to being ‘Nature Positive’, working towards halting and reversing the decline of nature by 2030. In their analysis of farming and climate change, Republic of Buzz argued that agriculture represented the “cow in the room” at COP26.   

Green technology ‘breakthrough’? 40 countries, accounting for more than 70% of the global economy, have signed up to coordinate the global introduction of clean technologies, starting with zero-carbon electricity, electric vehicles, green steel, hydrogen and sustainable farming. Governments agreed to align their standards and coordinate investments to scale and speed up production. The aim of the ‘Glasgow Breakthroughs’ is to accelerate the ‘tipping point’ when greener technologies become more affordable and accessible than fossil-fueled alternatives. 

Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero. Former Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney announced that financial institutions with $130tn of assets would align their portfolios with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) includes more than 450 banks, pension funds, insurers and asset managers across 45 countries and covers 40% of global financial assets.

• Inflated figures. Carney’s announcement came under rapid criticism. The FT explained the many ways in which the $130tn figure is inflated. Only a small proportion of the $130 trillion is actually being directed towards green investment. Many of the company signatories will continue to invest in fossil fuels. 
• Fossil fuel investments will continue. Analysts at Reclaim Finance said that by failing to mandate a halt to investments in fossil fuel expansion, GFANZ could not say it was contributing to the 1.5C goal. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has shown that new fossil fuel investment must halt now if global heating is to be kept under 1.5°C. (Read Reclaim Finance’s full report on net zero and the finance sector.) 
• Greenwashing. For the finance sector to say it is committed to net zero depends on the credibility of the net zero claims made by the companies whose shares it owns. Greenpeace protested at the GFANZ launch on the ‘greenwashing’ involved in using carbon ‘offsets’ to ‘achieve’ net zero. Earth.org presents a handy guide to greenwashing.
• Oily. Global Witness noted that the fossil fuel industry has more lobbyists at COP26 than any country has delegates.  

Is 1.5°C still within reach? Prior to COP26, the UN warned that the ‘nationally determined contributions’ (NDCs) which countries had made for 2030 added up to a global emissions total which would likely put global temperatures on a trajectory to a 2.7°C rise. Much attention was taken in the first week when Fatih Birol, Director of the IEA, tweeted that the side agreements announced could limit heating to 1.8°C. But this was quickly criticised. 

• Don’t confuse pledges with policies. Breaking down the “temperature estimates bonanza”, UNclimatesummit.org found that the 1.8°C figure came with a huge caveat: it would only be true if all pledges were implemented in full and on time. This was largely missing from celebratory media commentary in the UK. ECIU’s Richard Black argues that “pledges don’t cut emissions - policies do. And on the basis of announced policies, we’re still heading for something like the 2.7°C”. 
• Serious analysis. The first serious analysis of the COP26 pledges has come with the release of a new report by the respected scientific NGO Climate Action Tracker. It notes that the absence of policy detail in the COP26 side agreements and in many countries’ NDCs make the 1.8C claim implausible. COP26 has a “massive credibility, action and commitment gap,” the report says. With all target pledges, including those made in Glasgow, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will still be around twice as high as necessary for the 1.5°C limit, with 2.4C the most likely temperature rise by 2100. Climate Action Tracker's Bill Hare and Niklas Höhne explain their findings.
• Closing the emissions gap. With current pledges inadequate to closing the emissions gap to a 1.5°C pathway, two proposals have been put forward. The group of 55 of the most climate-affected countries, the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF), has suggested a voluntary annual platform at COPs at which countries - and potentially the side agreements - could add to the ambition of their NDCs. Former UN chief Christiana Figueres has proposed that, rather than countries presenting new NDCs in 2025, as required by the Paris Agreement, COP26 should bring this forward to 2023. The two proposals are not mutually exclusive. Michael Jacobs, New Economy Brief Managing Editor, explains the two proposals to 'keep 1.5°C alive' in the final days of the summit.

Closing the finance gap. On climate finance, the CVF are also demanding that (a) the rich countries provide $500bn over the five years 2020-2024; (b) 50% of this is for adaptation; (c) there is an annual accountability mechanism to see exactly where the money has gone. The $100bn financing goal for 2020 agreed in Paris is not expected to be met till 2023, so the $500bn would entail more than this in 2024 and 2025.

• Importance. A new report from Christian Aid outlines why the most vulnerable countries need more money, particularly for adaptation. UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2021 found that adaptation costs have doubled in the last decade and the costs may reach $300bn a year by 2030. ‍
• Financial realities. Power Shift Africa’s Mohamed Adow explains what the climate finance debate is really about, which isn’t the PR-focused, private-sector-led announcements being made at COP26.

A tax and spend budget? Last week Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced £70bn of additional spending over the next three years, taking real term spending per head back up to 2009/10 levels by 2024. Full Budget and SR documents here.

• Austerity repudiated. In its analysis, the IFS suggested that “fiscally speaking this year will go down as a once in a decade event...when public spending was increased across the board” - by 2024-25, an 8.3% real terms increase on 2009-10. A Keynesian-style spending budget when debt is still high and the recovery not yet consolidated could be seen as a tacit acknowledgement that austerity in 2010-13 was a mistake: the opposite choice was made by George Osborne then.
• The tax share. Sunak’s Budget speech did not mention what was in fact its most significant measure, the rise in National Insurance contributions (subsequently to be turned into a new ‘Health and Social Care Levy’) he had already announced. As the Resolution Foundation noted in its analysis, along with the rise in corporation tax and freeze in income tax thresholds announced in the spring, this will take the share of tax in GDP (sometimes called the ‘tax burden’) from 34% to 36.2% in 2026-27. The tax share will then be at its highest level since 1950.
• Post-neoliberalism and the free-market right. The Adam Smith Institute’s response criticised “this high-tax, big-spending budget...largely bankrupt of inspired policy”. Similarly, the TaxPayers’ Alliance took aim at the “highest tax burden in 53 years”, while the Institute for Economic Affairs was disappointed that “there is no plan to run a budget surplus in the coming years”. Political economists Will Davies and Nicholas Gane explain how the political right’s reactions to the covid-19 pandemic could signal a break with neoliberal orthodoxy ”and, in particular, from their overriding concern for the market”.

“Austerity is over, but not undone”. The IFS’s Ben Zaranko suggested that spending increases mean “austerity is over, but not undone”. Though departmental spending is set to rise across the board until 2024-25, only the Department of Health and Social Care (42.4%) and Education (2.4%) will see their Budgets higher than 2009-10 levels. In its response to the Budget, the Women’s Budget Group argues that “the increase in spending will not take most departments back to pre-2010 funding levels… nor will it repair the damage done to the public sector after a decade of successive cuts.”

Universal Credit. Another Budget measure which the Chancellor did not mention in his speech was the removal of the £20 a week Universal Credit (UC) uplift. Instead, Sunak announced that he was changing the Universal Credit ‘taper rate’, under which UC is reduced as claimants work more hours. The taper rate (which effectively operates like a marginal tax rate on income from work) would fall from from 63% to 55%. Analysts noted that this would compensate for the uplift cut for only about 25% of UC claimants. NEF pointed out that the poorest 20% of people will be receiving £380 per year less from Universal Credit than if the £20 uplift had stayed in place, pushing 300,000 more people into poverty this winter. JRF’s Katie Schmuecker said “Lowering the taper is a good thing to do, but it’s no substitute for the basic level of protection we all need social security to provide”. In his speech Sunak described the UC taper rate change as a “tax cut”. Several observers noted that, if the Chancellor concedes that the taper rate is a tax on work, it was hard to justify it being even 55%, well above the top rate of income tax. 

Distributional impacts. Economist Jonathan Portes argued that the overall impact of the Budget’s welfare, tax and spending decisions on different income deciles was “broadly progressive”, as ‘benefits in-kind’ from public services largely accrue to those on lower incomes. However, NEF’s Alfie Stirling points out that once you take into account the cutting of the £20 uplift to Universal Credit, all of the net gains in the bottom end of the income distribution are reversed. 

Rise in minimum wage. The Chancellor announced a 6.6% rise in the National Living Wage, from £8.91 per hour to £9.50 per hour, following recommendations made by the Low Pay Commission.

• Responses. In its response statement, Graham Griffiths, director of the Living Wage Foundation, drew attention to the “substantial gap” between the real Living Wage and the government-mandated minimum wage, which employers can still give. Autonomy argued that a national minimum wage of £10.50 per hour is “eminently achievable” by “shaving the incomes off the top 1.23% of the workforce” and could give a pay rise to 4 million people. 
• A ‘high-wage economy’? The TUC’s chief economist Geoff Tily pointed out argued showed that a rise in the minimum wage isn’t enough to secure decent pay across the economy. The IFS calculated that, given higher inflation, the average household is set to be £13,000 worse off by the middle of the decade, an “unprecedented two-decade hit to earnings [that] would leave average household disposable income 42% lower than it would have been had wages grown at pre-2008 financial crisis rates”. The IFS’s forecast for stagnant real wage growth put into question Sunak’s optimism about a transition to a new, high-wage economy. Commenting on the forecasts, James Meadway argued that tight labour markets and growing union membership offer a route to “inflation-beating pay rises across the economy”.

Local government will continue to struggle. Local governments received an additional £4.8bn of new core funding until 2025, but the IFS warned that councils are likely to struggle without additional funding from central government, since additional revenue will be wiped out by rising inflation and higher wage costs from lifting the public sector pay freeze. 

• Levelling up funds. Sunak also announced an extra £2.6 billion for the UK Shared Prosperity Fund over the Spending Review, and allocated the first £1.25bn of the Levelling Up Fund. The Byline Times’s Sam Bright explains that the English local authorities given money have lost vastly more, £25.5bn, in spending power between 2010 and 2018. To compete for the new funds, councils must pitch economic development plans aligned with the government’s preferred economics of inward investment and agglomeration. Former CLES Director Neil McInroy explained why addressing regional inequality requires real devolution of power over economic strategy and spending decisions from Whitehall.
• Tests for the levelling up agenda. Centre-right think tank Onward’s response called on the Treasury to “publish a regional distributional analysis” to understand how tax changes affect different regions and “ensure that the levelling up agenda is not held back by the tax system.” A group of progressive economists and think tanks recently called for Equality Impact Assessments that cover all of the Treasury’s tax and spending decisions and evaluate their impact upon different regions, races, genders, and other protected groups.

Social infrastructure. The government announced that it would fund 75 ‘family hubs’ in a £500m package to provide essential services to young families. Observers noted the resemblance to the Sure Start centres set up by the Labour Government from 1997 to 2010. Government spending cuts had forced 1,300 Sure Start centres to close over the last decade. The Women’s Budget Group argued that the Government should recognise childcare as vital infrastructure, where costs can be recouped by job creation and savings on social security; an estimated 1.7 million people were prevented from taking on more paid work because of difficulty accessing childcare.

A ‘climate-void’ budget. The Chancellor announced £30bn in green investment over four years (breakdown here.). This figure is far below than the £30bn of investment every year called for by progressive think tanks and economists in their Open Letter to the Chancellor published before the Budget. NEF’s Miatta Fahnbulleh and IPPR’s Carys Roberts both referred to this in the Guardian’s panel response. With the Chancellor cutting air passenger duty on domestic flights and freezing fuel duty again (and not mentioning the word ‘climate’ at all), IPPR referred to the event as a ‘climate-void’ budget. 

Delivering the net zero transition? Last week the government published its long-awaited Net Zero Strategy, along with a variety of other plans detailing how the UK government proposes to deliver the transition to a net zero emission economy. The three main documents are the overall Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greener, the Heat and Buildings Strategy and the Treasury’s Net Zero Review Final Report. For a short summary of policies outlined in these three documents, read this overview by the Financial Times.  

• Other net zero documents. Bringing together 19 climate-related reports published by the UK government last week, Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans collated a database of documents with links to each publication.

The Net Zero Strategy. The Net Zero Strategy outlines how the UK government plans to deliver its emissions targets of Net Zero by 2050 and a 78% reduction from 1990 to 2035. It estimates that additional capital investment must grow to “an average of £50-60bn per year through the late 2020s and 2030s”, with the private sector filling the majority of this. The Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) independent assessment concludes that it “sets an ambitious, credible path for UK decarbonisation, consistent with tough territorial emissions targets in the near and long-term that we (and others) assess to be in line with the demands of the Paris Agreement Implementation and delivery is what matters now”.

• “A very market-led strategy.” Chris Stark, the CCC’s chief executive, summarised the document as a “very market-led strategy” with “a striking use of mandates - obligations on business to deliver the change”. These include, for example, requiring car manufacturers to produce electric vehicles with a “zero-emission vehicle mandate” and mandates for boiler manufacturers to produce heat pumps. (See this box for a useful summary of the market-led policies for decarbonising each sector.) He continues: “it’s noticeable how frequently government puts the onus on business to invest and bring down the cost to the consumer. Many have criticised low public spending in some areas, but the government seem to be taking a different route. We shall see how that market-led approach fares.” 
• Public spending and delivery. ECF’s UK Director, Joss Garman, noted the continued shortfall in the overall envelope for public spending for carbon-cutting delivery, relative to what the OBR and CCC have said is needed. “The sum announced for home insulation today is billions short of Boris Johnson's promise in his own manifesto. Overall, the figures don't come close to the scale of funding Labour say they would put forward, which tees up a familiar debate on the size of the state relative to the role of the private sector, particularly in relation to insulating buildings and skilling-up the workforce.” James Meadway makes a similar argument for Novara Media. "Unless the Treasury’s attitude towards borrowing changes, the rest of the government’s decarbonisation strategy is futile. If it doesn’t have money to carry out its plans, no plans will be carried out.” 
• Briefing webinar. Join NEF’s special New Economics Briefing (Thursday 28th October 19:00-20:15) to hear what a public-sector-led decarbonisation strategy would look like and how it can be paid for. Speakers include NEF’s Frank van Lerven, UCL IIPP’s Katie Kedward, and economists Grace Blakeley and Laurie Macfarlane.

‍

Gaps: food, agriculture and behaviour change. Many have criticised the lack of delivery mechanisms in the Net Zero Strategy for decarbonising agriculture and land use, and the lack of emphasis on the issue of behaviour change (such as changing diets and demand for flights). 

• Decarbonising food. The Soil Association’s Rob Percival argued that the Net Zero strategy “falls short” in delivering the ambition for “an urgent transition to a nature-friendly, agro-ecological farming and sustainable diets”, as outlined in the National Food Strategy published in the Summer, which argued the UK should reduce meat consumption by a third. The UK’s demand for high-carbon commodities such as soy, palm oil, timber and beef, has been estimated to require an area of 88% of the size of the UK to produce. IPPR’s previous report on building a sustainable food system proposed policies to eliminate imported products which contribute to deforestation from UK food supply chains‍
• Behaviour change. NEF’s Alex Chapman noted how the government document Net Zero: principles for successful behaviour change initiatives has since been taken offline (but you can find it here) and previously included acknowledgement for the need for “behavioural interventions” to reduce demand for aviation. The waste advisory body WRAP has explored the possibility of consumer behaviour change and the Local Government Association and Global Good Awards have highlighted various practical projects to encourage it.

BEIS’s Heat and Buildings Strategy. The Heat and Buildings Strategy includes a target (not legally mandated) to end the sale of fossil fueled heating systems by 2035, and a £450m three year grant programme giving £5,000 to households to shift to low carbon heating systems (mainly air and ground source heat pumps). Read this commentary from Business Green.

• Not enough money. Business Green’s James Murray pointed to “serious concerns amongst policy wonks that the whole thing is badly underfunded”, particularly in support for reducing demand through higher energy efficiency. Friends of the Earth’s Mike Child’s noted that the money allocated would only pay for 90,000 heat pump installations over three years, which falls way short of the Prime Minister’s target of 600,000 a year by 2028. 
• Warmer homes for a cooler planet. IPPR’s Luke Murphy argued that a successful plan would include grants of £7,500 as well as covering the full costs for those suffering from fuel poverty, a legal commitment to phase out new boilers, a nationwide information campaign and a focus on local delivery and skills for a “retrofit army”. IPPR has provided a comprehensive plan to decarbonise the UK’s homes, setting out a blueprint for delivering a successful and fair national housing retrofit drive. Follow NEF’s campaign for a Great Homes Upgrade for more resources on decarbonising homes. ‍NEF has explained how a ‘Future Skills Scheme’ could help address the skills shortage, which it describes as a “binding constraint on decarbonisation initiatives, such as building retrofit”.

HMT’s Net Zero Review. It was widely predicted that the final report of the Treasury’s review of the costs and benefits of meeting the net zero target would focus mainly on the costs, as part of an apparent desire by Rishi Sunak to slow down the net zero momentum. But most commentators acknowledged that in the end it was a mostly reasonable assessment, suggesting that in the run up to COP26 Boris Johnson had won an internal fight with the Chancellor. 

• Public borrowing for the green transition. One interesting argument made in the review is that borrowing to finance public investment for decarbonisation would not be appropriate: “Seeking to pass the costs on to future taxpayers through borrowing would not be consistent with intergenerational fairness nor fiscal sustainability. This could also push up the economic cost of the transition.” Positive Money criticised this approach and drew attention to the need to see public spending as a “prudent investment that will pay for itself and deliver huge dividends for the whole of society”. E3G’s Heather McKay called the Review “half-baked”, overly focused on the costs over the benefits of the transition to net zero: “A Net Zero Review which considers only the upfront capital investment costs and doesn’t look at significant value that the investment will return, risks derailing the growing support for net zero investment by business and the public”. 
• Discounting the future. More generally, economist Nick Stern argues in a forthcoming academic article that conventional economic analysis, of the kind exhibited in the Treasury review, systematically undervalues the lives of young people and future generations who will experience severe climate change. 
• Loss of tax revenue. The Treasury report expresses concern that the shift away from fossil fuels will lead to a reduction in tax revenue from taxes such as fuel duty. In a response, NEF’s Lukasz Krebel argues that reduced tax revenue can be “balanced by increasing the progressivity of the tax system, such as taxing wealth, especially excessive/unearned wealth, at fairer rates”, pointing to principles for green tax reform developed by Tax Justice UK and others. The Institute for Government’s Net zero and the tax system called for a “net zero tax audit” to ensure all taxes support the green transition, rather than just the few which the Treasury define as “environmental taxes”.
• Johnson v Sunak? Commenting on recent rows between the Treasury and No.10 over increasing public investment in decarbonisation, James Meadway argued that “the left should celebrate Boris Johnson’s clash with the Treasury… Johnson will be performing a great service to any future progressive administration” if his government can reduce the institutional power of the Treasury over other departments.  IPPR’s George Dibb gave evidence to the House of Commons Treasury Committee, arguing that the “Treasury’s pound-pinching and short-termism holds back industrial policy in this country” and highlights the need for an empowered counterweight to set long-term strategic economic direction.
  

BoE signals tightening of monetary policy to combat inflation. Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, has said that the Bank “will have to act” to curb inflationary pressure in the medium term. Financial markets have already ‘priced in’ an interest rate rise before the end of the year. 

• Inflation caused by rising energy prices and supply/labour shortages. Bailey said he continued to believe that the recent increase in inflation was temporary, but the major increase in energy prices, along with supply chain and labour shortages, would continue for some time, and there was a danger of inflationary expectations beginning to take hold. Such expectations could fuel wage demands and thereby an inflationary spiral. 

Who loses out from inflation? The Economic Policy Institute’s Josh Bivens explains why the debate about inflation and the appropriate policy response must take into account the sources of inflationary pressure. Inflation driven by commodity price rises or other transitory causes should not be met with contractionary macroeconomic policy responses. Bivens explains that the distributional impacts of inflation are not always bad, as “unexpected inflation tends to transfer wealth from lenders to debtors”.

• Effect on owners of wealth. Economist Mark Blyth explained why inflation “worries the right so much”, because it “threatens to either reduce their expected investment returns, or impact their leveraged financial strategies, as interest rates rise”. The Resolution Foundation explains that, when inflation reduces the value of loans and assets held in nominal amounts, this “effectively redistributes net wealth from savers towards borrowers”.  
• Consumption of specific baskets of goods. Economist J.W. Mason explains that rising inflation may not necessarily lead to general reduced purchasing power (or falling real wages) because people from different income groups consume different things. He notes that “the stuff that has increased in price most over the past year is disproportionately consumed by higher-income families”. 
• Alternative measures of inflation. NEF’s Real Britain Index was an attempt to provide an alternative measure to the CPI to calculate inflation for those specifically on lower incomes. The ONS has since taken up this idea to provide different measures of inflation for different income deciles. 
• Wage-price spirals. As this executive summary of a book on wage-led growth from the ILO explains, inflation driven by wage increases may lead to improvements in productivity and thereby improve GDP growth, reducing inflationary pressure as the productive capacity of the economy is increased (full book here). This has led some economists, such as James Meadway, to argue that “wage rises and mild inflation, after decades of stagnant real pay and deflationary pressure, would be no bad thing.” 

Cost of living crisis. In a Twitter thread, the New Statesman’s George Eaton notes that, even if wages are rising in some specific sectors, millions of people are facing cuts to Universal Credit, all workers will have to pay more in National Insurance contributions and 2.6 million public sector workers have had their pay frozen, meaning a cut in real terms.

• Energy prices. J W Mason (above) notes that energy price rises hurt poorer households the most, since energy makes up a larger share of consumption for lower-income families. The Resolution Foundation’s new briefing explains “how rising energy costs will impact more than others and what the Government can do about it” reinstating the £20 per week Universal Credit Uplift, increasing energy related benefits (like the Warm Homes Discount, Cold Weather Payments and Winter Fuel Payment schemes) and reducing demand by improving the energy efficiency of homes.
• Food prices. Bloomberg notes that global food prices are at their highest level in 60 years and explores possible policy responses.
• Inflation policy alternatives. For more on balanced policy responses to rising inflation, see our previous Digest.

Facebook under scrutiny. The practices of the world’s sixth largest company, Facebook,  dominated the US media last week following the revelations of a whistleblower, Frances Haugen, a former Facebook employee. Giving evidence to Congress, Haugen accused Facebook (which owns both Instagram and WhatsApp) of knowingly harming children’s mental health and fomenting violence and extremism around the world. The company puts its “astronomical profits before people”, she said. Haugen posted the video and text of her opening statement. 

• Facebook’s business model. Over the last month Haugen has leaked hundreds of internal documents to the Wall Street Journal detailing Facebook’s awareness of the damage it causes. Haugen said Facebook could act on these but does not, because “the business model of Facebook is designed to maximise attention at any cost”. She compared Facebook to the big tobacco companies who for decades concealed the evidence they had on the link between smoking and cancer. She called for Facebook’s “unaccountable” algorithms and safety practices to be regulated. 
• Reaction. Both Democrat and Republican Senators condemned Facebook’s behaviour but even relatively weak privacy legislation is currently stalled in Congress and observers do not expect serious regulation to be agreed. Facebook CEO (and 55% shareholder) Mark Zuckerberg reacted to the accusations - and to the six-hour outage which the company also experienced last week - in a blogpost. 
  ‍
  

Further evidence. Haugen’s evidence is the latest in a series of revelations about Facebook’s behaviour and business model, as the Washington Post and Carole Cadwalldr (the Observer journalist who broke the Cambridge Analytica story in 2018) explained.

• Quarterly harms report. A US-based NGO, the Real Facebook Oversight Board, publishes quarterly reports on Facebook’s “impact on democracy, privacy, and human life“. 
• The January 6th Capitol riots. Vice reported that Facebook had “contributed to the January 6 insurrection” by shutting down an internal team monitoring groups spreading disinformation and manipulating elections a few weeks before. The team was disbanded on the grounds that it would diminish the amount of time spent on the platform, and thereby hurt Facebook’s advertising revenue.

Big tech and monopoly power.  In October 2020, a House of Representatives antitrust subcommittee published a landmark report investigating Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook. It argued that all four platforms abuse their monopoly or near-monopoly power to enhance their profits at the expense of competitor companies. 

• Platform capitalism. Nick Srnicek’s book Platform Capitalism offers an analysis of how the ‘platform’ business model enables digital companies to accumulate monopoly power through the ownership and sale of users’ data. He summarised his argument for IPPR. 
• Surveillance capitalism. Harvard academic Shoshana Zuboff’s book The Age of Surveillance Capitalism (summary here) details how digital platforms have created a “fundamentally anti-democratic new economic logic”. (Read this interview with the author and watch this video documentary for more.)
• Advertising models. The Open Markets Institute, the leading US campaign organisation against monopolies, summarised in a Twitter thread the way in which Facebook’s and Google’s “surveillance advertising” model invades privacy, promotes discrimination and supercharges incendiary content. 

Alternatives. Mariana Mazzucato, Rainer Kattel and colleagues at UCL explain how the state can redress the problems of the major tech companies’ monopoly power. Maximising the public and social gains of technological innovation whilst minimising their harms requires a combination of legal changes, stronger antitrust/competition regulation and changes to the ownership of data and companies. Yale University organised a timely event last week on possible legal and regulatory reforms with Facebook whistleblower Frances Hagan, Tristan Harris, subject of the Netflix documentary The Social Dilemma, Shoshana Zuboff, author of Surveillance Capitalism and other experts; you can watch it here. 

• European regulation. The European Commission has set out its plans for two Digital Services and Markets Acts to protect the rights of users and improve competition. (BBC summary here.) It has been criticised for being too weak. Signed by 69 civil society organisations representing around 29m citizens across the EU, The People’s Declaration is a letter to the EU parliament calling for “an end to Big Tech’s destructive business model which has turned our own data into weapons against us.” Reporters without Borders calls for strengthened protections for democracy and journalism. ‍
• Digital platforms as utilities. In a report written for the IPPR Commission on Economic Justice, Mat Lawrence and Laurie Laybourn-Langton argue that the major digital platforms should be regulated as utilities, with licenses to operate mandating key behaviours and an independent regulator (‘Ofdig’).  ‍
• Ownership. IPPR argues that much of the data collected by digital companies should be publicly owned, so that it can be used for general benefit. James Meadway expands on the idea of a digital commons and offers recommendations for policymakers to use industrial policy to support sustainable and commonly-owned data infrastructures. Common Wealth proposes the creation of a “democratic digital infrastructure”, while Autonomy_Digital argue that platform cooperatives offer a fairer alternative to current private business models. The City of Barcelona has been developing the idea of a digital commons in practice.
• Competition policy. The Counterbalance newsletter brings together analysis and proposals on corporate power and monopoly, and how it can be regulated through stronger competition and other policy. For more on this, see our previous Digest on competition policy.

Four principles structuring the Chancellor’s speech. Chancellor Rishi Sunak gave his first speech to the Conservative Party Conference this week (video here), structured around four overarching principles: a “pragmatic” approach to economic policy, a commitment to fiscal responsibility, a focus on jobs as a poverty alleviation strategy, and an “unshakable optimism” about the economic opportunities provided by technological progress. 

Fiscal responsibility. Sunak argued that “there can be no prosperous future unless it is built on the foundation of strong public finances”, counterposing Labour’s proposals as fiscally irresponsible.

• Debt as % of GDP. The Chancellor warned that public debt was approaching 100% of GDP. A decade ago many macroeconomists believed such a level to be damaging to economic growth. But at today’s ultra-low interest rates the cost of servicing that debt is at historic lows (Twitter thread explainer by UWE economist Jo Michell here.) So the idea that a debt level of 100% of GDP is unsustainable is now widely regarded as arbitrary and outdated. The IMF argues that fiscal rules limiting debt to GDP ratios are inappropriate in today’s conditions and should be abandoned. 
• Public investment is fiscally responsible. Cambridge economist Dimitri Zenghelis and the LSE’s Nicholas Stern explain why public investment in economic growth is key to debt sustainability: “G7 countries should increase post-pandemic public investment...recognise the potential economic and social returns to increasing public debt for the purpose of investment…[and wait] to pay off the public debt until the economy is undergoing robust growth.”
• International comparisons. Sunak boasted that the UK has “one of the fastest recoveries of any major economy in the world”. But as noted by BBC Newsnight’s economics editor Ben Chu, this is largely because UK GDP fell much more than other G7 countries during the pandemic. In terms of GDP levels, the UK has reached a level relative to its pre-crisis peak roughly equal with Italy, France and Germany. Responding to the Biden administration’s larger stimulus package, the US has now surpassed that level. (For an analysis of the US economy’s recovery, see this article from the Brookings Institution.)

Plan for Jobs. With the furlough scheme having ended on 30 September, the Chancellor said the Government would be judged on how many good jobs it creates. He pledged more than £500 million in new funding to extend the Kickstart Scheme for young people until March 2022, as well as to support workers leaving the furlough scheme and unemployed over-50s back into work. A £3,000 incentive to businesses to take on apprentices has also been extended until February 2022. Sunak promised to create 2,000 “elite ArtificiaI Intelligence scholarships” for disadvantaged young people and to double the number of  Turing AI World-Leading Research Fellows “to ensure that the most exciting industries and opportunities are open to all parts of our society’.

• Alternative support schemes. NEF estimates that the end of the furlough scheme puts over 700,000 jobs at risk of redundancy, loss of hours or loss of pay. In her response to the speech, NEF’s CEO Miatta Fahnbulleh called for a “part-work, part-train scheme” to help people in declining sectors acquire new skills for sectors that are creating jobs. The TUC has proposed a permanent short-time work scheme to limit job losses in future periods of economic turbulence, such as climate change or global financial instabilities.

Job creation and UC. Sunak defended his much-criticised refusal to keep the £20 per week uplift to Universal Credit (UC), arguing that dependency on benefits was the wrong approach to reducing poverty. He emphasised instead the government’s commitment to providing jobs. 

• In-work poverty. The Resolution Foundation’s Torsten Bell explained why cutting Universal Credit will not boost job creation or incentivise those 2.3 million claimants already looking for work. NEF’s Living Income campaign found that 32% of the UK population (21.4 million people) will be living below a needs-based ‘minimum income standard’ by 2022 if the government doesn’t change its policy. (See their recent blog on options for reforming UC). The IPPR documented the “continued rise in working poverty since the beginning of this century”, and argued that “the promise of social mobility through ‘hard work’ as a route out of poverty alone is failing to deliver”.
• Industrial strategy to boost wages. IPPR’s George Dibb explains why addressing stagnant pay and insecurity will require public investment in green job creation to increase demand in the economy and “a return to sectoral bargaining delivered through Plan for Growth sector deals and unions”, referencing their recent report Prosperity and justice after the pandemic.

The “transition to a new economy”. The Chancellor argued that beyond the measures it has taken (such as issuing temporary visas for HGV drivers) it is not the government’s responsibility to sort out labour shortages; this should be left to the market. Boris Johnson and other ministers have been arguing that today’s labour shortages are the growing pains of an economy which is transitioning, after Brexit, to a high-wage, high-productivity state no longer reliant on immigrant labour. 

• Supply chain issues. Sunak claimed the problems in UK supply chains are being experienced “right around the world”. A global survey by the Guardian confirmed that supply chain problems are occurring in most major economies as economies expand rapidly after the pandemic. But the specific impact of Brexit in the UK is widely noted in the European and US media. Larry Elliott puts much of the blame on the UK’s “just-in-time” economic model. The Institute of Government has offered an analysis of the multiple causes of the UK’s current shortages. ‍
• Labour shortages. Oxford economist Simon-Wren Lewis explains why creating “labour shortages among workers deemed to be unskilled by this government are damaging to the majority of workers in the UK”, as well as damaging to those overseas who are prevented from filling the shortages by immigration rules. Economist and former adviser to Theresa May Giles Wilkes suggests that “running the economy hot by raising demand” is a better way to raise wages than cutting labour supply.

A new approach. Rachel Reeves outlined Labour’s new approach to economic policy in her speech to the Labour Party Conference this week. (Video here.) The Shadow Chancellor focused on rebuilding the ‘everyday economy’ as a solution to the deep pre-pandemic problems of the UK economy, which she identified as falling growth rates, flatlining productivity, a plummeting trade balance, widening regional and other inequalities, and stalling pay growth. 

• Diagnosis of the problem. Analysis of these five economic problems lay at the heart of the report of the IPPR Commission on Economic Justice, Prosperity and Justice. IPPR last week published its follow-up report analysing the UK economy after the pandemic, calling for a radical shift in four fields of economic power. (Twitter thread summary here)
• The everyday economy. First used by IPPR in arguing for a new approach to industrial strategy in 2017, the concept of the everyday economy was elaborated by Reeves in a pamphlet in 2018. It focuses on those core but often overlooked sectors which provide the foundation for all other economic activity and which employ large numbers of people in every part of the country - sectors such as retail, transport, energy, water, health, education and care. Noting that these sectors “employ a lot of people but too often pay low wages, employ workers in precarious situations, and suffer from low levels of productivity,” Reeves argued that these should be a primary focus of industrial strategy. 
• Origins and critique. The ‘everyday economy’ idea draws heavily on the concept of the ‘foundational economy’ originally developed by Karel Williams and colleagues at the University of Manchester’s Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change (CRESC), who have published many reports and articles on the topic. Former head of CLES Neil McInroy analysed the political economy of the everyday economy approach in an article in The Political Quarterly. Reeves replied to McInroy’s critique here.
• Industrial strategy. The everyday / foundational economy idea is also linked to the concept of ‘social infrastructure’ developed by Jérôme De Henau, Sue Himmelweit and the Women’s Budget Group. Himmelweit explained this in a chapter in Craig Berry’s e-book What We Really Mean When We Talk About Industrial Strategy and discussed it on Ed Miliband’s ‘Reasons to be Cheerful’ podcast earlier this year. Isaac Stanley has outlined “an industrial strategy for the foundational economy” in a report for Nesta, focused on government investment in undervalued sectors to increase pay and reduce gender, racial and regional inequalities, while Common Wealth have set out an industrial strategy for adult social care to restructure the sector from one “dominated by for-profit provision to one that puts the needs of people first”.